Tracking Three More Storm Systems

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Good Wednesday bloggers,

Gary mentioned five storm systems the next 15 days. We will go over three of those that will occur in the next 7 days. First, this morning, we dropped to the single digits in many locations. Could this be the last day of the season that we drop that low? We could still see many more days with lows in the teens. The last record low in the single digits is on March 26th, so we still have to watch it as a very cold outbreak is possible in about 10 days. The average low is 30°!

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You can see the next three storm systems on satellite as they are lined up out in the Pacific Ocean like planes at O’hare. Let’s take them one at a time.

2

TONIGHT-EARLY THURSDAY: A band of accumulating snow will track across Nebraska, Iowa and far northern Missouri. We should stay dry in the KC area. A warm front to the south will not make it through with this storm system.

3

Here is a closer look at the snow later tonight. Maryville to Chillicothe to Kirksville may see a dusting to 2″. The band of snow could shift north-south by 20-40 miles. KC will stay dry with lows in the 20s.

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THURSDAY PM/NIGHT: It will be mostly cloudy with the snow exiting and then possibly returning to northern Missouri as a second disturbance trails the system from tonight. A light mix is possible around the I-70 corridor. Right now we do not expect any road issues as temperatures should be just warm enough and the precipitation will not last too long. That being said, we still need to keep an eye on it.Technically, it is a separate system, but it is also connected a bit to the first one. So, we will call all of this system #1.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST TONIGHT-THURSDAY: Nebraska and southern South Dakota will see 6-12″ of snow with 1″-5″ for the rest of Nebraska and Iowa.  Far northern Missouri will see a dusting to 2″. It is rather close to KC, but should stay north, just north of St. Joseph.

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FRIDAY: We are in between storm systems #1 and #2. It will be cloudy and cold with highs in the 30s.

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SATURDAY MORNING: The second system comes barreling through with a period of rain and thunderstorms. The rain-snow line is north of I-80. We could see .25″ to 1″ of rain as the rain moves across the region. Hopefully, we will see enough to wash off the salt and stuff from the roads. Now, this is not the only weather this storm will bring. There are two other features to look at. We will see a lot of wind and also, look at the temperatures. We should get to the low 50s Saturday morning as the warm sector races towards our region.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON: After the rain, the sun should come out as we get into the warm sector. Highs have a chance to jump to 60° and remain there for an hour or two as it is a small, fast-moving warm sector. It will be windy and may not last long, but beggars can’t be choosy.

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SUNDAY: The second system is racing away as we see more sun and less wind, but highs only around 40°. The third system is entering the southwest USA and will bring rain Tuesday and Wednesday. This rain may start as freezing rain/snow and/or end as snow.  We will keep an eye on this one.

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Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff Penner

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EastOfEdenElaine WatsonREAL HUMEDUDEStl78(winon,mn)f00dl3 Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

Hmm. Yesterday it was stated there were 5 storm systems. Now we think 3? Did we misread the LRC?

😛

Anyway – I kind of don’t think we will have any more cold outbreaks. We may get cool but not cold. I think we may still add 5-8″ of snow this winter season, though. Majority of that in mid- to late April.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Didn’t u say yesterday that u expect a very cold April/may?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Your so wrong about that snow in late April but i admire your ballsie enough to put it out there. It only snows in late April maybe 1 every 20 years

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Last significant snow after April 15: 2.7″ on April 20, 1992.

It also snowed 1.0″ on April 14, 1996.

Sounds like it’s high time for another one! 🙂

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

Gary mentioned five storm systems the next 15 days. We will go over three of those that will occur in the next 7 days.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Bold prediction! When do you think that will happen? The blizzard repeat around 20th-22nd? I worry: even at the start of cycle 3, a cold cycle, it was barely cold enough. It might be October 14’s return that gets us with an inch or two.

John
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John

What happened to the warm up during the week of the Big 12 Tournament??????????

Enough of the cold and that 4 letter s word and I don’t mean the one that rhymes with hit.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

It is very interesting. I had hoped for snow event this weekend, however, I hope the rain totals are on the lower end, we have frozen tundra with snow on top of it and we will have all run off. It will also play havoc with the “freeze thaw cycle” and tear the streets up. Hopefully, once we get above freezing we stay above freezing and get rid of the frost in the ground. The last 10 days where it has been supercold has also been good for the streets – there was no thawing – therefore there has been… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Plows do 80% of the damage we see.

North Topeka
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North Topeka

For those of you who are interested in potential flooding concerns I found this Kansas Mesonet site with great visualizations of Soil Moisture data in KS. I’ll freely admit my own ignorance, but I’m curious what percentage of soil saturation is considering bad for spring planting? I would assume the 87% in Miami Co is bad, but it’s n=1 of one location. http://mesonet.k-state.edu/agriculture/soilmoist Anyway if those impacted by the Ag industry, farmers and/or ranchers are concerned about flooding? Considering they’re the backbone of our local economy and put food on our tables, if they’re worried about flooding I’m worried about… Read more »

Troy
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Troy

The most immediate problem for Agriculture is cattle. Many cows have been calving during this nasty weather and keeping them healthy and alive is a challenge. The entire winter has been a real mess for those feeding cattle as death loss has been unusual high and they have not gained well at all with the snow, rain and very muddy conditions. Planting is a ways off but looks like it could easily get delayed unless it really dries out. This has been one of the wettest fall/winter periods on record in a lot of areas. Here in NC KS the… Read more »

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Calves have been getting pneumonia really bad this year. Cold isnt bad, its wet and cold that gets cattle sick rather easily. You can hear them coughing when feeding. Ive had a number of sick calves, but havent lost as many as usual winter ironically so consideing myself on the lucky side of things.

Spooky
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Spooky

I am wondering why, with all of the LRC talk regarding how accurate it is, why has there been no March, April & May severe weather forecast made? I would think you could produce an accurate forecast now?

Matt
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Matt

Gary is working on one.

Joe
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Joe

It’s amazing how the traffic on this blog dies when there is no talk of snow for a week or so…

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Well, to be fair, a lot of the initial blog comments happen in the morning usually, which didn’t really exist today.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

it doesn’t matter

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

All you have to do is browse through the archives and see how many more comments winter threads get than summer threads, on average.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

More to forecast in winter.

In summer, a lot of our weather is convective and just pops up whenever, so you can’t really “track” it the way you can track a winter storm over several days. The exception could be major tornado outbreaks, but those have done a great job of avoiding this region the last few years.

Winter weather tends to have more organization and less randomness involved. It also tends to affect larger numbers of people significantly. A tornado destroys 30 houses…an ice storm skatingrinkifies thousands of roads.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Maybe not this year.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Over this already. Wife and I tried to make plans to get away for a couple days but yet another storm looks likely which means mandatory wknd once again. I’m beyond sick of this at this point!

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

sorry to hear about that

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

kids too…

Elaine Watson. McLouth
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Elaine Watson. McLouth

You and your family definitely need a break. Sorry the weather won’t cooperate.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Thank u for your understanding!

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

It’ll be tense seeing how much and how quickly the rivers begin to rise. Even though we don’t have much snow left in KC, the areas just north and west of here have 1-2” of moisture frozen away with deep frost depths as well. With heavy rain falling almost everything will become runnoff that won’t have much chance to recede before the next rainfall. At least we’re not worrying about red flag warnings this year.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

2019>1993. Sorry to say………..

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Great point. Usually this time of year everything burns up its so dry!! Usually talking about how normal it is to be dry because gulf isnt open yet. Question is, how wet will we become once the Gulf DOES open up?
(Nervous gulp)

Jeffg
Guest

This weather is crazy. We may be headed for a rough spring. College baseball has started in the area, but between dodging snowflakes and rain it is tough to get any games in.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

First