Five Storm Systems In The Next 15 Days

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Good morning bloggers,

The cycling pattern according to the LRC supports five storm systems in the next 15 days.  A few of these storm systems will likely be quite strong, and  a couple of weaker ones will track across the nation as well. The next storm system is moving into the west coast tonight into Wednesday and it will zip out into the plains on Thursday.

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This storm will produce snow close to the Iowa/Missouri border, and possibly a few sprinkles or light rain showers near KC Thursday evening.  So, we will not have our 41st date with snowflakes this season.  Kansas City has now had 40 days with at least a trace of snow at KCI Airport. Take a look at this incredible number of days with snow, beginning with the earliest recorded measurable snow in KC history:

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14

The storm following this one is stronger, and wetter, and then the one following that, storm #3 in this series is even wetter and possibly stronger early next week.  There will be warmer surges ahead of these storm systems and one of those surges will arrive early Saturday with a chance of it warming up to near 60 degrees briefly around noon Saturday.  We will look deeper into this pattern tomorrow and on 41 Action News tonight.

Have a great day.

Gary

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Rich (east of Topeka)BSMikeREAL HUMEDUDECurtisdale Recent comment authors
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Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Here’s your new blog: Today is going to be warmer than yesterday but still below average as the average high is 51 degrees. Tomorrow there is a weak system that will bring a chance for snow near the Missouri/Iowa border but accumulations likely to be around an inch or less. The attention then focuses on Saturday as a much stronger system will arrive bringing rain and the possibility of thunderstorms to our area. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe especially to areas to our south. The high on Saturday could be approaching 60 as warm moist air ushers in… Read more »

BSMike
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BSMike

Anyone,

I’ve asked Gary this a couple times but to no avail. I will be in Fort Worth the week of April 1-7 what is the LRC saying about the weather that week, as I will be in a bass fishing tournament? Cold, rain, warm rain???? I’m not paying the weather 2020 site just to get the prediction for that week, thanks for whoever can answer.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Early spring tourney are tough around here, ive seen 1 fish win decent sized tournies in March. I would prefish as much as possible, goes without saying. What i have found early season is all about finding slightly warmer water which is usually shallow and fed by a creek. Texas shluld be alot warmer ao i would be slinging a big spinnerbait looking to piss off a big prespawn female. You got me all fired up for a tourny now!!!

BSMike
Guest
BSMike

WOW I got two votes down !!! Sorry but not paying $50 a month or whatever it is for one weeks info!! Real humedude I’m pumped as well, there already been several 10lbs caught this early spring down there.

Rich (east of Topeka)
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Rich (east of Topeka)

Download the 1Weather app on your phone. It uses the LRC for it’s 12 Week Forecast. Currently this is what it says for the “Week of 03/31” (3/31-4/6): “Stormy Week This has the potential to be a very wet week across the region as two strong systems track out of the southwest United States. These systems may have a band of wet snow on their northwest edge across western sections of Kansas and the western half of Nebraska. Locations to the east will have three to four days with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms. Flash flooding and some… Read more »

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Sorry BSMike, I gave you the forecast for our area on the 1Weather app. The forecast for the Fort Worth area for the Week of 03-31 is:

“Severe Weather Possible
Two strong storm systems will track out of the southwest United States so two to four days will have a good chance of rain and thunderstorms. Severe weather and flash flooding will be possible. Wet snow will be possible in western sections of Texas and Oklahoma. The rest of the week will be mostly dry with periods of clouds.”

BSMike
Guest
BSMike

thanks

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

you’re welcome

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

wheres the new blog

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Everywhere

Heat Mizer
Guest
Heat Mizer

…and yet nowhere at the same time…profound!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Slow weather day, don’t need a new blog entry every day.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Last

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

What’s the last weekend in March looking like temps wise?

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

the AO is forecast to go toward negative next week, so the third big storm Gary talked about on air for mid next week has a very good chance of tracking south of our area.

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REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

The models have that storm pegged to go WAY North and West of KC proper.
AO is not the end all metric for storm placement, its a lot more complicated than that. Current placement would suggest it would need to take a 250 mile jog further south to get close to Metro. Its been like this run after run

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Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

Most likely last at 10:45 PM. Just got home and it is already down to 12° awfully cold for this time of year. Tomorrow is supposed to be around 5° to 7° in the morning.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

This would be a huge problem in mid April if other ingredients came together:

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Austin Braddock
Guest
Austin Braddock

What is this map

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Amount of helicity available for storms if they form in given air mass. Helicity can equate to rotation potential.

KC BBQ
Guest
KC BBQ

Yes, and? What’s the “huge problem?”

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Tornado tinderbox.

craig
Guest
craig

Yep. Unfortunately, this is very likely to be a VERY bad tornado and severe weather season.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Spring will come someday.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Started March 1st.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Not really pete weather man saybthen. But it’s really not until March 21st

Curtis
Guest
Curtis

Meteorological Spring started March 1st. Astronomical Spring starts March 21st. You’re both correct.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Found this interesting article about the increasing chances in years ahead of a catastrophic flood in California due to climate change & atmospheric river conditions.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Nearly-1-Trillion-California-Flood-Likely-Occur-Within-40-Years

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Ben
Guest
Ben

I believe you are receiving down votes because you mentioned the dreaded “climate change.” God save us all from science and facts.

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Ben, I commented about the tornado alert message Why would I get down voted -6? I’m fairly new so would like to know

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Dont worry about the votes, people are ignorant and hateful online so dont even try to rationalize. Thanks for the info

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Thanks for your kind words I’ll take your advice

dale
Guest
dale

Could be because while there may be consensus for climate change, past experience shows there was also consensus as recently as the 70s for global cooling. Personally, I don’t believe in “climate change” but, as Gary’s theory suggests, climate “cycling”. The earth has long gone through periods of cooling and warming and we appear to be on the front end of a cooling period rather than warming period–at least since the 90s. Record temps from any month or year are likely NOT to be indicative of a trend.

LibertyWeatherGuy
Guest
LibertyWeatherGuy

WOW! Just stepped outside for a minute to the top of our parking garage here at work and the NW wind is really taking a bite out of the temperature, even with the sun. Brrrr.

Cmw
Member
Cmw

As I was watching tv an alert come on for a tornado warning for kc I live in Platte county which was listed as one of counties It was clear outside and too cold A glitch in the system for sure

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Area wide tornado warning test day. Severe weather preparedness week.

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Thanks for 411 I must have missed the part about testing When I see the word tornado I get scared

Matt
Guest
Matt

If their were ones Gary Lezak and so on would be on the on air shoeing them happening.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

FV3 off its rocker
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2Doghouse
Guest
2Doghouse

That’s not legit is it?

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It’s a real model if that’s what you’re asking, but anyone with any sense knows it’s nonsense. That’s hour 240, and we all know how bad FV3 is at snow totals far out.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Not only the FV3 is in error but Tropical Tidbits’ equation is too. If you got to precip type radar view that’s all freezing rain – 1-2″ of ice. Not 10-20″ of snow.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

If there is another actual snow storm, expect it sometime between March 14th and March 18th. I love snow, and will be out of town those days.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

There’s a good chance that mid April may be well below normal. Enjoy this warm weather the next 38-42 days while it lasts, even though flooding will be a concern! We may have our last snow in May!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

What about summer? Will this be 1993 all over again like I am thinking (or worse)?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Consider this: Warm cycle 4 – Mar – mid April — Would imply more early spring severe setups, but also possible issues with capping if we run too hot in the warm sector. But also that could mean loaded gun scenarios which would not be good. Cold cycle 5 – mid-April – June — would imply higher flood risk not necessary severe weather setups at least through mid May. Warm cycle 6 – June – mid July –would actually imply that the anti-cyclone may try to build. BUT if we have enough cold core lows dropping fronts that may stave… Read more »

Ted in StJoe
Guest
Ted in StJoe

naw they need good pr at the corps

matt
Guest
matt

Wrong about Snow we hope.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’ve had my eye on April 28-30 for months now, is that the potential last snow you mean?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Depending on +/- 1-3 day time frame yes.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Here’s the real question then. Did anyone foresee the May 2013 event with the cycle? Or was it a complete surprise?

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

I’ve heard several people say that it might be a cool spring. I’d be okay with cool, but if it snows again in April and May, I might go crazy!

Bill
Guest
Bill

No way we have our last snow in May. December was warm (I think above average). The brutal cold ends this week…the cold stops in the next 10-15 days and then its spring. I legit can handle only one more snow.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Correct, December was above average, and the “heatwave” is expected to return and take up most of March. Then we go to slightly below average, like most of January.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Still waiting for it to snow around here…..may be too late now.

Roger
Guest
Roger

How much snow have you received since October? Certainly more than Wichita’s 10.1 inches.

LibertyWeatherGuy
Guest
LibertyWeatherGuy

I’ve sure been enjoying the abundance of “inclement weather school days off” at work this winter, I have gone sledding with my 8 year old quite a few times already this winter and plenty of warm fires in the fireplace, the wood is going fast this year. I am ready for spring and grilling out, getting out in the yard and just outside in general.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

ain’t we all?

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

Hmm… interesting for Saturday. Check out day 5 (Sat). Has the whole state in a large area of 15% probability of severe weather. First chance of the season? Will it be warm enough?

matt
Guest
matt

That will change but at least it’s not Wintry Weather.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

yeah, because it will be in the 40’s or 50’5

matt
Guest
matt

That still brings Rain and Thunder.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Thank You for the write up.
Question, is there a better website to try to track the quasi permanent trough?

skippiedoodah
Guest
skippiedoodah

Gary, I have 11 days off starting March 18th. Do you see any warmup/lack of snow? I’ve been looking forward to this since October. PLEASE tell me some good news. I do not want any more snow. Or cold. I need to see spring flowers and feel warm sunshine or I may go mental.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

how much snow are we expecting over the next 15 days

John
Guest
John

Im going to hope for zero.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

if we get snow, that means another chance for a snow day and I will not have it. (Neither will the districts)

Bentley
Guest

Hopefully 0 for the school’s sake and for my sake.

Craigmac
Guest
Craigmac

Is there more snow in any of these storms over the next 15 days?

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

We just have to hit 41 then we can stop!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’d be happy if we just surpass 12-13.

John
Guest
John

I would be happy if I did not see another snowflake until November or December.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

One more day of this miserable cold and then let the thaw begin!

Jerry
Guest
Jerry

first?