Let’s Look Ahead On This Frigid March Morning

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Good morning bloggers,

Sunny Stats

Sunny The Weather Dog shows us some of the March 4th stats.  Kansas City International Airport was in a heavier snow band early Sunday morning and the official snowfall total has come in at 2.8″.  This puts KC up to just under 30″ for the season. Does anyone think this is our last snowfall?  From around this point forward, KC averages around 2.5 more inches of snow, and this years LRC supports a few more pretty good chances.  One of those chances is going to be arriving this week, in three days actually.

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This map shows one of the model solutions valid Thursday morning. This shows a mixture of precipitation near KC with snow just north of Kansas City around noon Thursday.

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Where is spring? It is right there, just southwest of KC on Thursday, and yet so far away.  While KC is near 32 degrees Thursday it will be in the 70s over parts of Oklahoma and Texas.  The next storm system will bring in a surge of warmer and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico:

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The dew point temperatures are forecast to surge to near 50 degrees by early Saturday morning as this next storm approaches. This will be the fuel for rain and thunderstorms as you can see on this forecast map:

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March came in and continues to roar like a lion.  The southeast had a tornado outbreak yesterday with deadly results. Over 20 people lost their lives and this is more than the total number of people killed by tornadoes in 2018.  When this part of the pattern cycles through in late April, we will have even worse severe weather set ups, and flooding will become in increasing threat. Speaking of flooding being a threat, take a look at this from the National Weather Service in Los Angeles for this week:

Screen Shot 2019-03-04 at 7.41.04 AM

Is this weather wearing you out yet? Are you ready for spring?  Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions as we have a great conversation on Weather2020.com  Have a great day!

Gary

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Freeze MiserAlexPickmanTed in STJOEWeathermanKumkeKS Jones Recent comment authors
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Freeze Miser
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Freeze Miser

Alright, brother Heat Miser…it’s time for you to take over. Have a little fun with our statewide tornado drill today, brew up some early season thunderboomers this weekend, bring on the warmer weather. The cold side of the family is warn out. Thanks for a great season. Now, get to work you hot head!

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

Sorry Ted lol

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

Lasr

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

It’s time and it’s done. Spring in 2 weeks!! Who’s ready for severe weather season. Next week will feature our last chance of accumulating snow!

Ted in StJoe
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Ted in StJoe

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wed nite th

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Lol. Looks like the May 2013 storm. Rain-snow sandwich.
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L.B
Guest
L.B

First flock of robins flew in yesterday, Hopefully they know more than the LRC and spring is on the way

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I had one visit my bird feeding areas on the patio about a week ago, I think it was the Friday snowstorm. Saw another one in the neighborhood last week. They arrived a wee bit early with the bitter cold temps. They will eat bird seed. I put some on the ground for the non-perching birds.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Robins hang around here year-round. We don’t see them in our yard very often at this time of year, but we do see them in our woodlands (especially cedars), where they eat juniper berries.
Here’s an excerpt from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology: “In winter they may disappear from your lawn but could still be around. Look for flocks of them in treetops and around fruiting trees”
Here’s their range map.
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Aaron
Guest
Aaron

Hey Gary, love the blog, was curious if you have come out with a forecast for Royals opening day yet?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

In terms of severe weather outbreak around April 21st, I assume the position of the Jetstream and high energy waves will affect the location. Given that the 500mb was in fairly zonal flow this time, will it shift much farther north in April? By the way, the NAM3k nailed the tornado area via the SigTor parameter. Here’s the map showing it.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=stp&rh=2019030312&fh=9&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Jason
Guest
Jason

Good question

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think the fact this weekend’s setup which produced a huge snow last time will come through as thunderstorms this time is a sign that cycle 4 overall will be warmer

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

odd cycles = cold, even cycles = cold at the beginning, then warm

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

this late Wednesday night Thursday event has piqued my curiosity. Three or four days ago it was noted as a significant evnt and now it has been downplayed by everyone. I know it is going to be northern MO that has the most winter weather from this event. I think it would almost be laughable if St. Joseph received more snow on Thursday than it did on Sunday. There have been questions about the ability of cold air to come into the area as a result of the higher sun angle. Yesterday afternoon I did not have a lot to… Read more »

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

I picked up 3.0” of snow in Ashland this weekend so my winter snowfall total is now at 32.7”. I’m glad to just break 30”, the question now is will I break 35” or even 40”?

Rodney ( Ashland, MO)

Justin
Guest
Justin

Gary,

Are you saying the south will have even worse severe weather set ups, or we will have severe weather set ups?

Matt
Guest
Matt

Both. The South got hit hard this Weekend.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Dropped to – 19 air temp. Windchills in the -30s early this morning. Currently -4 air temp with light snow. Another 70-80 hr work week ahead. I really need a light at the end of the tunnel. Considering a trip back to KC just to get a little relief. I would love some 30s or 40s

JOSH
Guest
JOSH

The week to week and a half ahead is actually looking good if we can get through today and tomorrow. 40’s and 50’s for highs, still below normal, but we’re getting closer and closer to spring! I don’t think I am wishing for thunderstorms and severe weather though, 23 dead in the southeast yesterday. Deadliest day since 2013. 🙁 It’s going to be a bad spring for severe weather.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

That sharp temperature contrast line that has been a near constant this winter spells huge trouble for the mid-south and southeast USA. It is eerily similar to 2011. As severe as things may get down there this spring I still contend FLOODING will be THE issue as we move into May-June and maybe (ala 1993) July. Now as for snowfall reference 2011 if you are into analogs: our last accumulating snow was on the 27th of March after everything had bloomed! Would still not be shocked to see it do so deep into spring, much as I hate snow.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

We only THINK we know what Kansas Winters are capable of
The big die up ….sounds like a horror movie but actually just a taste of what Kansas is capable of. I for one was unaware of this event, and makes me realize nobody is prepared for such a thing today. The question becomes…..how often does this naturally occur here? Once every 200 years, or once every 1000?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.history.com/.amp/news/great-plains-blizzard-1886-kansas-big-die-up

FARMERMIKE
Guest
FARMERMIKE

dude that was an excellent article (but terrible thing to happen) thanks for sharing

Troy
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Troy

Pretty crazy. Really 120 years of weather records is not all that much. We probably don’t know the full parameters of what the weather can actually be yet. Many people think of the weather as having a normal but when you look at history there are really only averages and not any normal.

shoedog (Leawood)
Guest
shoedog (Leawood)

Great story, hadn’t heard about it. Events like that is why I get tired of every time a “major” weather event happens it’s a sign of “manmade global climate change”. There have been horrific weather events throughout history. That is the “nature” no pun intended of weather. That storm was 140 years ago. If a similar storm hit today, we would be told it is all because of what man did.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I wonder with our forecasting and today’s technology, if given the same storm today , would we have more or less fatalities?
People would know days in advance that the worst blizzard of our lifetime was coming….so would they pay heed or ignore it?
There would be no storm to compare it with, unless you literally said this storm is outta the movie “Day after tomorrow” and you could easily die if you leave your home. Hope we never have one this bad, but history has a way of repeating itself.

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

Even with today’s technology, extreme losses of livestock are still occurring. Over 1800 head of Dairy Cattle perished in the early February blizzard in WA I believe the losses were due to the unusual climate that most farmers had not experienced in a long while. 🙁 https://katu.com/news/local/wash-dairy-farms-take-4m-hit-after-1800-cows-die-in-blizzard

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

THIS x 1000! One of the HUGE natural events that affects our weather like no other is major volcanic eruptions. This 1886 superstorm was just three years after Krakatoa erupted which spread ash across the globe and seriously affected weather worldwide. Also pays to remember that yellow ball up in the sky goes through up and down phases as well………………..for me the jury is out on us entering the major phase of a Grand Solar Minimum but I sure don’t discount it, either. Any scientist worth a dime knows you always keep an open mind. Climate Change (once called Global… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Well said

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

This is an excellent article. There are all sorts of extreme weather events in history that only have descriptions from people’s diaries because no records were officially taken back then. With only about 140 years of weather records (NWS was established in 1880), the “extremes” we have faced may only be extremes from that time frame. People have lived here for 400 years from Europe, and over 10,000 years for the Native Americans. Ever heard of the great snow of 1717? New England got four Nor’easters in 10 days, and it dumped so much snow that over 90% of the… Read more »

02906
Guest
02906

I’ve thought it but never wrote it……. nice work Guy!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Never heard of any of those events, cool stuff.
If we arent careful, such an event will catch us off guard with disastrous results.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Yes, that snowfall from 1717 was cause by volcanic eruptions that spewed ash into the atmosphere, and Im assuming, that is what caused the unbearable cold with UV blocking from the ash in the air. This was thought to be the biggest contributor to New England snowfalls in that period

Christine
Guest
Christine

Thank you Gary

FARMERMIKE
Guest
FARMERMIKE

one extreme to the next… this is starting to get old……………. FROM KNCK NEWS…..AGAIN::::: Weekend Snow Pushes Concordia’s Winter Total to 3rd Highest of All-Time Mar 04, 2019 A weekend snow storm to begin the month of March brought nearly five inches of snow to Concordia early Sunday, March 3rd, making the 2018-2019 winter season the third highest on the city’s list of accumulated snowfalls in history. The National Weather Service Office in Topeka reports 4.8-inches of snow fell in Concordia during the early morning hours Sunday, ending up just short of the record snowfall for date when 5.1-inches of… Read more »

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

I think we’re done with any more real snows here in KC proper. I suppose anything is possible, but I imagine the the real snows will be moving to around the Iowa border and north. With snow chances winding down, I may give up weather models and blogs for Lent. I take this stuff way too seriously.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Olathe, Shawnee mission and Blue valley didn’t close

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Actually, I didn’t see one single Kansas school district closure anywhere.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Sante Fe Trail south of Topeka closed due to conditions of country roads for buses more than temps

2Doghouse
Guest
2Doghouse

Gary
Any thoughts on Arizona this weekend and next week? All the apps are showing cool and rainy. Hoping their wrong

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Gary, NOAA continues to forecast below normal temps and above normal precipitation for the 6-14 day timeframe. However, most current local forecasts are showing a dramatic warm up into this weekend. The NOAA did back of the level of cold for the 6-14 but still show it likely for below average temps (how cold I guess would be the question). For the next two weeks how many snow producing storms do you predict for Kansas, mainly for central and eastern parts of the state? Thanks.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Average high temerpatures in March range from about 50-60 degrees as we move through the month. The biggest warm ups don’t looks like they’re going to be getting much warmer than that for the next two weeks and that will probably continue to be the case until the snowpack north and west of here can start eroding.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

You are right, ave temps for March are in the 50’s, I was thinking 40’s were average. So this very well could be the last week we see high temps below freezing. Amen.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Current guidance has temps still below average here but when you are 40 degrees below average it leaves a lot of room to go up. One thing to remember when you look at NOAA 6-14 day outlooks is they are not forecasting how cold it will be but rather how likely is that it will be colder than normal.

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Gary, thank you for your insight on the forecast, I love reading your analysis. However, I am getting weary of winter weather affecting my travel. I would love to have a nice spring and then lead into Summer gradually, not a sudden shift. Do you see that happening? I think we will have a very active and interesting Spring/Summer and Fall for this pattern. Do you see any potential for a prolonged period of dry weather? To me it doesn’t seem so with this pattern. Glad to see California getting some rain, they had been in an extreme drought for… Read more »

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Forget more snow, let’s get to spring and thunderstorms!

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

So Gary Im assuming at this time of year, every part of the equation ( dont know specifics) must line up? My question is, is it mostly about the cold air supply this time of year? This is when I know you say that polar stuff takes retreats back to the north pole as the tilt of earth shifts, and I was wondering what your confidence was on enough cold air to generate any more decent winter systems? (Unless of course this really isnt the bigger issue, more just running on inference)

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

First and so tired of school closings.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Blue Valley stayed open today. Hurrah!

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Shawnee Mission stayed open too! Seems most of the closings are on the MO side today

Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

All of them are on the Missouri side…because its colder in Missouri, than Kansas, apparently…

rkcal
Guest
rkcal

The reason MO schools closed and KS schools didn’t is due to how school funding is calculated. MO uses attendance figures. If attendance is too low, it doesn’t count as an actual school day, and no funding is received. KS works on a set number established at the start of the year, and does not factor in day-to-day attendance numbers. So, basically: MO schools don’t think kids will come, so they just shut it down rather than risk receiving no funding. MO schools will always close more often than KS schools for this reason.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Well I don’t know about that aspect but I do know that SMSD reached their limit on snow days this year (last week), so any closures going forward will probably be heavily scrutinized. No wiggle room left.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

All schools in Kansas open!

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Must be so much warmer on the Kansas side (says with an eye roll). The schools are getting too conservative on the closings. These kids are used to the cold at this point. There should have been school today on the Missouri side.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Wrong…. Step kids school south of Topeka (SFT) closed today. Partially temps, but the bigger issue was the country roads with mild drifting for buses. That’s what the said via the recorded message at least.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

OK all KC metro area KS schools open. I’m sure if I searched the entire state of KS, I could find some out there closed.

roru
Guest
roru

first!