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Good Saturday bloggers,

Here we go again. Our next and 23rd winter event that has required some kind of treatment from salting to shoveling arrives tonight. If you have plans today and this evening the roads will be dry as the snow does not start until midnight to 2 AM. Now, once it starts, the roads will get slick quick.

12

The storm that will affect us is still in California as of Saturday morning, so yes, it is a quick mover. That is one reason our snowfall totals will be kept down a bit. A disturbance in Nebraska is producing snow there, but will not affect our region. There may be a few snowflakes in northern Missouri this afternoon.

1

The Winter Storm Watch for our area has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory as amounts will not be quite high enough to warrant a Winter Storm Warning. The Winter Storm Warning covers much of Kansas along I-70. So, travel is not recommended out there tonight into Sunday. Blowing snow will be a hazard through Sunday and there is nothing to stop the wind out in Kansas. The north wind will keep blowing snow over I-70, making it hard to clear. I am sure parts of I-70 may get closed. There are no advisories at this time for far northern Missouri.

13

Let’s go through the storm.

NOW TO 4 PM: It will be dry with highs in the 20s. The wind will increase from the north and northeast to 10-25 mph.

2

SATURDAY 4-10 PM: It will be dry around here as snow rapidly increases in western Kansas. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s with wind chill values around 10.

3

SATURDAY 10 PM-MIDNIGHT: The first snowflakes will arrive by midnight as temperatures drop to the teens and the wind increases from the north to 15-25 mph. So, the roads are mostly dry until midnight. If you are out though, bundle up as wind chill values tonight will drop to near zero.

4

SUNDAY 2-8 AM: This is the main part of the storm as snow will be falling heavy at times. Notice, that the heaviest snow is from around I-70 south. Far northern Missouri will have much less snow, but it will still be slick and frigid. So, even though there is no advisory way up north, still use caution if you are up there tonight and Sunday. Even 1″ of snow can cause problems.

5

SUNDAY 8 AM-NOON: The snow will end quickly from west to east with blowing snow continuing. Winds will be from the north at 15-25 mph dropping wind chill values to as low as -10. The sun will peek out by afternoon.

6

MONDAY: The low will drop below zero in Kansas City for just the 9th time in March in 131 years of records. A northwest wind of 10-15 mph will bring wind chill values down to as low as -20. Monday afternoon will see sunshine, but highs will be just 10-15 with wind chill values still as low as -10.

7

Here is our snowfall forecast. Pick out your location, or the location nearest to you.

8 9 10 11

If the storm system is stronger, then we can possibly add 1″ to 2″ to the totals shown above. We will monitor this as the storm evolves.

Have a great weekend and stay safe and warm.

Jeff Penner

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AdamEastOfEdenJoeTed in STJOEStephen Winn Recent comment authors
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Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

new blog

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Tonight’s news:
1. Modot and Kdot report
2. Salt dome report
3. Pan to wx dude with snowfall map behind him
4. Map of road conditions

Can’t wait!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Yet, idiots like you post on a weather blog.

Stephen Winn
Guest
Stephen Winn

Summit overpass report

Joe
Guest
Joe

Totally agree….oh and don’t travel at all!!!!

Adam
Guest
Adam

Well, as far as news coverage this is the way it goes. You’ll get a thumbs up from me even though I know you’re a troll. A program that has investigative reporting is what I would call news.

John
Guest
John

Still a low average total per storm. 23 events and 26 inches of snow, that is barely over an inch per system. I don’t think this one will get KCI to the 30″ mark for the season either. Everywhere around that small area is over 30″ for the season, so I guess it is all perspective.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Yep! Platte County is an eternal snow dodger. Northland Split!

Clint
Guest
Clint

Looks like NWS in Topeka has added some counties to the WSW.
https://www.weather.gov/top/

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

north and west not east and northeast darn…

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

The 18z NAM run on Pivotal showing snowfall totals is a glitch. Look at total QPF and using 15:1 ratio puts it at about 4.5 to 6 inches 😉

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

On Pivotal Weather, the 18z NAM is only showing around .20 QPF for much of the area for the event and at 15:1 would be around 3″.

Clint
Guest
Clint
KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This map of snow accumulations has been updated twice, and this one will probably be changed later today. The storm’s bullseye has been moved west with each revision.
comment image?ffbaa12707298d267308447ff4659ee3

Josh
Guest
Josh

The models are all looking good for a pretty good snow on the south side of Kansas City. I’m backing off from 4-8″, but I am still going to go with a safe 3-6″ for Lee’s Summit.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Latest NAM shows patches of snow a dusting to 6″ or higher and then nothing at all west of Topeka? Glitch run? HRRR, RAP, GFS all 5-6″ KC metro, and much more wide spread.

comment image

Rodney's Clockwork Angels
Guest
Rodney's Clockwork Angels

Looks like something is wrong with that model run. Looks very odd to say the least.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

I’ve noticed this several times recently on Pivotal Weather for the NAM. This has got to be some kind of data error or map generation error. The maps for this run look fine through 18 hrs.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

NAM makes zero sense. Throw it out for this run. No, not because I don’t like it, but because I don’t think it makes logical sense.

Josh
Guest
Josh

Probably too close to the event for it to pick up. That and like MikeL said, it’s a data error..

John
Guest
John

Man I would like if this map panned out for my location it would mean less than an inch. Too bad this is obviously some kind of computer error.

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

It definitely a glitch. 18h and 21h are completely different.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

odd as hell

Rodney's Clockwork Angels
Guest
Rodney's Clockwork Angels

Looks like Lawrence might see a winter storm warning issued based on current model trends. Six inches would be the biggest storm of the year if we get it. My goodness it is close.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Why do you think they might upgrade…did you see a NWS discussion somewhere about it?

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Rodney: I totally agree…RAP, HRRR, and 12Z NAM sure do give credence to Lawrence getting to that 4 plus inch range; my conservative 3 inches may be in trouble LOL. I would think with the winds and cold coming in after this system that eventhough we may not reach the 6 inch criteria they would put Douglas County in the warning as 4-5 inches wiht those wind chills are not that much different than 6 with the wind chills. You say winter weather advisory and most people just go whatever….no biggie…..this storm for Lawrence is looking like it will get… Read more »

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

12z EURO and GFS have backed off on snowfall totals. 12k NAM is close to HRRR. NAM has done fairly well this winter and was closest to EURO which did the best with the November and January storms. Will be interesting to see the 18z roll out, but mostly the 0z since this will be update for all models.

Beekeeper
Guest

18z NAM has lost its mind again… lol… For some reason I keep thinking those blobs will all join together into something reminiscent of T-1000 from Terminator 2…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2019030218&fh=24&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Sure is quiet today with the snow approaching.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Everyone knows this thing is a bust….hype machine does when. It fizzles….no I am not talking about the media now actually…more the bloggers…wishcasting in one hand and something else in another…see which one fills up first!

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

18z HRRRcomment image

Adam
Guest
Adam

Great short podcast that was posted elsewhere on weather prediction. I think many on this blog could benefit from it.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Well I give up

Adam
Guest
Adam

Trolls everywhere

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

pooh

JOSH
Guest
JOSH

I really like your probability chances of 1″ of snow, 2″ of snow, 4″ of snow and so on. Kinda wish you would’ve posted those as well. Will be looking forward to the blog update this afternoon/evening. What’s the time frame for that? TIA

Elaine Watson
Guest
Elaine Watson

No matter what range you are in I think it sometimes comes down to those tiny bands that are more or less productive. Although we haven’t had the big one I think us snow fans can be fairly pleased with this winter. Spring storms will be a nice change!

Highway of Heroes
Guest
Highway of Heroes

Oh, man, I cannot wait for spring storms!

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Elaine:

Excellent post!!! I am the rare breed that is a winter lover and this winter especially cycle 3 has delivered in aces even if Lawrence is still searching for that 6 plus inch snow (will we get it tonight??). It is so much like bass fishing….may not have caught that 6 plus bass but if you catch several in the 3-4 lb range in this part of the country you have a great fish….this winter is just like that!!!!

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Happy Saturday again everyone!! The GFS Classic and GFS-FV3 are actually closer to the NAM than I thought they would be. The NAM is for sure stronger and has the wave better organized as it comes across but both renditions of the GFS put Lawrence close to 3-4 inches where as the NAM had more of 5-6 inch snow. I have been conservative all winter and while it hasn’t been perfect, I am still pretty close to the amount I forecasted for the season so I’ll stay conservative with this event as well and stick with my 3 inches for… Read more »

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

A quick addendum:

I should have stated that I am fully convinced there will not be a “poof” with this wave….this will get people’s attention when you consider the snow….the blowing snow…..the crashing temps….and the wind chills….this is not a storm you want to be caught out in without the proper clothing….

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

Love ya Bill

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

I’m not worthy….I’m not worthy!!!! 🙂

I very much enjoy your posts as well!!!!

euro hack
Guest
euro hack

2-3 blog posts ago i voiced my support for the NAM… it’s consistently been the most accurate model this season. even when it was predicting a poof i knew it would solidify 1-2 days out—very glad my faith paid off!! really sad when people support any model that predicts the most, with no regard to past accuracy. the GFS has been terrible this year. if the NAM says 5-6 i’m fairly confident in saying it’ll turn out!

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

So the storm is just going to weaken as it gets to Missouri and St Louis is now getting hardly anything. That is about normal.

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

I am hoping we can get 5″ of powder snow, since we have had nothing but wet snow in St Louis area.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Glad I read the blog today. I am getting some enjoyment out of the comments. This system isn’t going to “Poof” not sure where that is coming from and I have every confidence it will produce a range from 2-8 inches from North to South across the region with potentially higher amounts in isolated areas. Going to be fun to watch it unfold. Just my 2 cents

Ryan in Raymore
Guest
Ryan in Raymore

If I would have known it was going to be this cold and snowy, I would have not booked a ski trip for spring break. All I want is warm weather!

SnowBadger
Guest

Truth! Heading to Copper this Thursday. Difference is, I will be skiing in the snow and not driving in it!

Troy
Guest
Troy

Just to show you how quickly things can change the little system forecast to be mostly along I-80 by most models last night is putting down its heaviest snow right North of the KS/NE stateline. We have even been getting snow here South of the border (moderate at times) where it wasn’t supposed to snow.

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

I think that would be bad for this event. If it has sag that much further south 60 miles plus means that the current area is coming into the upper Midwest already. Or upper great plains. If it continues to infiltrate let him wear rapid pace. This thing to get Shane to drive the way down to Springfield. If grandma however, somehow or another

Nate
Guest
Nate

Well, that’s probably disappointing for ya’ll, I guess we’ll move on to building next week’s event into a fantasy storm..12″++ ? City shut down for days….SHTF ?

Justin
Guest
Justin

Opening day is 26 days away. Is it possible there could be snow still on the ground? I don’t know if that has ever been the case.

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

Oops

Troy
Guest
Troy

It will really help the pitchers but we may not hit a home run until May.

steelwheel67
Guest
steelwheel67

Gonna miss not seeing Perez all year. Hopefully it will be a lot warmer opening day.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Season is to long.

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image GFS 06z for next Sunday there is a storm system showing and Gary if i remember you was talking on your blog or on air a few days ago that there was Another’s Winter storm showing up 9 days later ? Gary this is part of this Years LRC systems that there was going to be anythere winterstorm showing up.

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

Hopefully this can be the big kahuna where everyone from Saint Joe to Harrisonville!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

The 9th and 10th storm looks to still favor areas of northwest Missouri north of KC. Models, GFS consistent on heavy precip and 8-15 inches of snow around and northeast of St Joseph. That’d be a bang to hopefully end our winter. Maybe we’d get to 60 inches up here?

Ted in STJoe
Guest
Ted in STJoe

I would love to see over 1 foot of snow in St. Joseph. Have a wet snow with moisture content of 1.4 inches 15 inches of snow. This city would be completely and totally paralyzed. I have a snows this winter I have been the light fluffy type. If we can maintain the cold ground and have the appropriate dynamics with paralyze the 45 mi.² of St. Joseph Missouri. 80,000 people will be, not hopeless, but life will be made difficult.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Smh….never learns

Robyn
Guest
Robyn

Yard of speckled snow
awaits a new white canvas.
Winter keeps painting.

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

heat mizer heat mizer heat mizer heat mizer ha ha ha ha ha ha ha downgraded went poof poof poof

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

In Heat Mizer’s defense, if the GFS comes out any where near like the NAM they will most likely place Douglas County in the Winter Storm Warning……while I am staying conservative (see below) there is evidence this morning that this may well be Lawrence’s biggest snow of the season and I highly doubt it is going to go “poof” for Lawrence

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

My friend Bill is exactly right! 🙂

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…4-6 for Lawrence…thats actually a bit of an upgrade. Ha ha…nice try though.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

This could very well be the biggest snowfall event of the season, so your comment makes no sense.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

I feel like cental and western Kansas has been the target this year.

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

We have not been too bad up here either. 40+. This just won’t be our evening. Oh well, hopefully it will warm up. I can honestly say I am sick of the cold, but a lot of the snow! ❄️☃️

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

South and southeast sides of metro kc have more snow than central and western Kansas. Extreme North central Kansas, extreme NE Kansas, south kc metro and st Joseph, mo areas way more of a target than central and western Kansas. At least this year.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Went from winter storm watch – winter weather advisory…wishcasting is currently losing

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Its exactly as Gary has been saying…hilarious how trolls try to spin it when things dont go their way….rofl

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Get out and away from the blog sonny

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yes, you should do that…hanging around blog’s just to troll is weird, unflattering, and a bit creepy

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

Heat you are a GREAT man and love your input-you add stability to the blog❄️❄️🌨⛄️💨

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Not trying to be Mr day of Model guy here, but Gary/Jeff I was curious if there was a reason you became a little bit more dovish? The models and even HRRR at 10:1 cap SLR we’re showing 3 inches on HRRR, NAM 4, GFS 3, and FV3 3. So known g it’ll be snowier, due to temps, wouldn’t this warrant an expectation of more like the same 4-6 that’s been talked about ?? Or even the original 3-5. Just curious to the thoight proceeds since I can only see models

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

I’m guessing they think dry air will be an issue at the onset. Cutting into the snow totals.

John
Guest
John

I don’t know where everyone is getting this forecast of 3-5, because the graphic from yesterday showed 2″ North, and up to 4″ South. This morning they are still sticking with 2″ North and up to 4″ South. It is only going to snow for about 6 or 7 hours, which means there will probably be only 2 or 3 hours of heavy snow. I think they have a good forecast going right now.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Uhhhh….John people are getting those other figures straight from the natural weather service. That’s what the official forecast is saying.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

National weather service obviously

John
Guest
John

Ok, I can see some of that, but for my area the NWS is predicting 2-4″ of snow, also. I live halfway between Liberty and KCI along 152 Highway. No matter what forecast I look at for my area it says 2-4″. I know we are talking about many hundred square miles in the viewing area, but I think their forecast is pretty good right now.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Actually, you’re also in the 3-5 range. If you’re reading the forecast from the day/night descriptions its 2-4 for tonight and up to an inch tomorrow, but if you read the official WWA, it’s 3-5 for you too.

John
Guest
John

Well I guess we are seeing different things, but the NWS has been like the Weather Channel when forecasting this winter around my area. 3 WWA in my area when no precipitation fell, and 1 when the temperature never got below freezing. Then there was the Ice Storm Warning for this area, and we maybe had one 15 minute shower that did not even glaze my windshield. Last week they didn’t put this area into the WWA for the freezing drizzle until 10 o’clock, which was after they had to close down 152 in both directions at my exit for… Read more »

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I’m not in disagreement with you on totals that may fall at all. It might be 7 inches in places or 2-3 total across the area. Not seeing things different at all. Just saying officially, you are also included in the 3-5 range per NWS. I would trust gary more than them too to be honest.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary and Jeff: Happy Saturday to both of you!!! The north east wind is already blowing here this morning….you can for sure feel it when you are outside!! The 12Z NAM, if I am looking at it correctly, just came in stronger than the 0Z NAM run. It has Lawrence with almost .40 of QPF where the 0Z NAM had Lawrence with barely .25….quite a bit of difference when considering how cold it will be. The NAM would give Lawrence a c hot at 4-5 maybe even 6 inches for this event. I doubt the GFS will be that aggressive… Read more »

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

Bill, thank you for your analysis. I hope you get a good snow in Lawrence or just outside of Lawrence. I’m fairly certain that I’m only going to get 1-2 inches this time around. Oh well, there’s always next weekend and Easter Sunday! Have a great day.

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

Folks, When you look at the upper lows and lower highs, the cresting and looping, it says to me this storm will be a monster. Right now, it appears a Blitzkrieg Storm is forming and the battle line is I-70. If this pattern holds, and I am confident it will, we’re looking at 12+ inches for KC metro (unless of course the gov spreads chem trails to bring down those amounts).

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

This act is old, time to start a new one king of the hill

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Great insight Dale! I’m starting to think some enhanced lake-effect snow bands may set up off of Potter’s lake in Lawrence. Thoughts?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I really think you are underestimating this thing. If you can find any remaining milk or bread would you let me know?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Excellent insight, Rusty. What are your thoughts on “Humpty’s Revenge” potentially this spring?

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

You know, you posted this exact same thing on the blog just before this one started. When someone reposts from one blog to the next, especially when it’s not truly a valid weather post, it just absolutely proves you’re a troll. I believe people who do this have real problems with self-indulgence, and possibly other areas. Likely a lack of empathy for others too. I hope this makes you happy. Just answer one thing if you could. What enjoyment does it really truly give you to do this? If it really does, as I suspect, it proves my point.

Kadens Mom
Guest
Kadens Mom

That sounds scary Dale

David Pollard
Guest
David Pollard

If we can get 4″ here in Blue Springs it will be the 4th snowfall over 4″. The others we had were 6.5″, 9.5″, 4.2″, and now this one. KC’s average snow per event is still really low. I can’t complain at all about this winter. As a snow lover this has been very satisfying. I am at around 30.5″ on the season so far. Isn’t the criteria for a WSW in this area still 4″ or more in 6 hours or 6″ or more in 12 hours?

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

A winter storm warning is six or more inches of snow and a 12 hour period or eight or more inches of snow in a 24 hour. Also, other criteria can be taken into consideration with this or in the winter storm warning. They can be issued with significantly and or freezing rain and snow accumulations. But if it’s an all snow event 6 inches in 12 hours.

Jrock
Guest
Jrock

First!!!