Saturday Evening Updated Snowfall Forecast

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Good evening bloggers,

Here we go again.  For most of us that love snow, and love to track it, let’s admit it. Until it begins falling, you wonder if it is really going to happen.  After the past four winters, where we had 14.1″, 7.7″, 5.9″, and 4.9″, it has been hard to enjoy the ride of winter.  Many of us love winter as our favorite season for one reason………these snow chances. And, this winter has not disappointed us. Again, however, now please admit it, I know you are shaking your head yes; there are many times even in the blizzard on November 25th, and the big January 12th snowstorm, not to mention just about every one of them, there are moments when you look at radar and think, “oh no, it’s falling apart. It’s going to miss us?”.  Well, this season, then a few minutes to hours later shook you out of that first stage of tracking the radar as a storm approaches, and then it came through. This is what this year’s LRC is all about. Kansas City has actually been in the right spot. Finally. Well, it doesn’t cure us from doing it again. The data came out, and the amounts came down. This is why I have been trying very hard to help you with your expectations on this storm. It is a fast mover, and it is still targeting our area. We may end up with just 1 or 2″, and more likely 3″ or so. Keep this amount in perspective when you compare it to the past four winters.

Okay, I am not sure I even made sense. I am trying to help all of you with the best weather forecast, the most consistent weather forecast. I did not issue a Winter Storm Watch a couple of days ago, and I think that happened in response to potential snow ratios or something. This storm has not budged from how it has looked to me. There is a main disturbance with waves of energy spinning around it as you can see below on the 2 AM map.  Those orange areas show vorticity, and when it increases along one of those black lines, the constant height lines, then it is called PVA, or Positive Vorticity Advection. This is pretty strong on the latest NAM model.  This PVA causes lifting, or rising motion, and thus if there is enough moisture, snow:

6

Counter acting the PVA is cold advection. If the cold air is blasting in strong enough, it causes the air to sink. So, the PVA is balanced by the Cold Air Advection. Does this make sense to you?  On this next map, it is important that we maintain an easterly component to the wind, this implies some warm advection or neutral advection is happening, and thus the PVA can dominate and our large area of snow will form:

5

In may analysis, also fo 4:30 PM, I decided on this snowfall forecast. And, this is consistent with what we have been sharing you on the blog the entire time.  We are forecasting 2-3 inches north metro and 3-4 inch south metro. We still have to watch for that middle heavy band that will form, IF that vort max is just a bit stronger and holds together long enough.  If not, these amounts could be 1″ lower. If it does, these amounts could be 1″ higher.

Snow Forecasts

So, here we are. It likely won’t spread in until around 2 or 3 AM. I am going to get some sleep form 8:30 PM to 1 AM, as I LOVE SNOW.  How about you?  The wind will pick up during the morning too, so if there is 2 to 4 inches across the city, there may be 6″ to 1 foot drifts.  Let’s have some fun with this, be careful, and we will look ahead as this active winter weather pattern is not calming down. It is March Madness as March is coming in like a LION.  Have a great day!  Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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RockdocWeatherfreakerFred NolanEastOfEdenMr. Pete Recent comment authors
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Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Just checked, 3:45am it just stated snowing. Dusting on patio. Good night.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Still nothing here in Prairie Village next to Overland Park. Radar velocity shows most active out west and to the south. It is 3:35am so snowfall timeline is lagging. Guess we are in the W-E trough with lower snowfall totals. Signing out. Time for bed. No snow here.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

First flakes just started flying in Lee’s Summit a few minutes ago…

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

Im guessing a quick 3″ here in Olathe. Moving to fast.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

None of these storms arriving on time! First it was supposed to happen at 1, then 2, then 3, now maybe even later?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Noticed the same. Snow totals could be less unless shift of moisture and upper lift shift in time.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’m still up looking out the window. Nothing happening yet.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Mr Pete, it should start within the next 30 minutes. I’ve been monitoring the radar and it’s quickly approaching. Maybe even earlier. I’d share but no way with MyRadar app. If you have android phone, get MyRadar app via Google Play Store.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

If you get it, use HD radar for clouds/snow. Also use local Pleasant Hill for actual radar. Currently showing moisture near Lawrence. So that suggests KC about 2:30am.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Thank You Gary for the very technical tidbit. This is what has been missing from your blogs. For us hard core weather enthusiasts we want to see more technicals in terms of what drives the forecasts. For the first time, in a very long time, I’ve learned something here and I very much appreciate it. My question is how does this translate down thru the layers because I think the 500mb to 850mb layers is where all the real action occurs. Also, what is your take of liquid:snow ratio? I’m thinking about 15:1. Here’s hoping you and Sunny can enjoy… Read more »

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Looking at the radar it looks to me like the disturbance will go along the borders 3 counties down from the Kansas/Nebraska border and right about the platte county line near I-70 across the KC metro.

If that is track I thought heaviest snow occurs along and north, so between I-70 and 36 highway would be the sweet spot? Just saying it’s heading due east, that would be a slightly further north track?

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I personally don’t think so Kurt. I think the heaviest will start to bend to the south as it gets closer and the heaviest will still be slightly south of kc metro.

Zachary
Guest
Zachary

Is it just me or does this thing look like it’s taking an ever so slight northern jump

Waldo weather
Guest
Waldo weather

I agree. You can really see it on the Dodge City radar.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

latest RAP confirms this also it looks like

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Link or picture?

jcling64056
Guest
Bob H
Guest
Bob H

I feel like this storm is going to surprise us like it did in the last two cycles

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Radar shows the storm system is advancing eastward at ~100 MPH.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/south-central-region/weather-radar?play=1

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

negative 100 mph? what?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

oh, thats a squiggle…lol

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Gerard showed 2-4 inches for most of the metro. With upside for Ottawa to Harrisonville southward.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

nws shows widespread 4-6 for KC….we ll see whose closer.

Joe
Guest
Joe

You said earlier Gary said this wasn’t a huge storm and he is always right, yet you are quoting NWS cause they give the higher output total…give me a break man

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

dude, the difference between the two forecasts is an inch or two…give ME a break. And if it blow around like some are saying, we wont be able to tell the exact amount in any event.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

STFU dude.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

the 2-4 is for the northern half, 3-4 for the southern half, and you might be able to add an inch to those totals if it comes in a bit stronger

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

I’m just repeating what I heard on-air. The graphic showed a general 2-4 for the entire metro. The higher totals Gerard showed were for the southern half of Miami County and south.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Jebailey just said 2-4….I wish I wish I wish….but there is moisture from the gulf…it’s slowing down…it’s gonna be more than 2 I know it I just know it…I like snow but come on people…really…get a grip we aren’t getting 6+ inches…face it another loss….

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

who thinks we are getting 6 plus?

Let It Snow 88
Guest
Let It Snow 88

I do

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Go to bed Joe Ker

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Has the time frame changed or is it supposed to start later tonight? I haven’t really been able to watch the news today.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Arriving after midnight and exiting by 9AM or so.

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

Most snow from 3 to 7 am for the Platte city area

Randy D
Guest
Randy D

I have been watching future radar models and the last run I just watched showed moisture from the gulf interacting with this storm as it is starting to get going here.

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

It is not in any hurry.

Joe
Guest
Joe

This storm won’t poof but it’s not going to bury us either…however you want to justify it

Randy D
Guest
Randy D

There is a possibility this storm may surprise us. It seems like it has slowed down and may tap into some gulf moisture.

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

I was wondering about that. It is moving slowly across KS. I doubt it gets to Eastern Jackson County before 3am at this pace.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Also with the slower moving storm the ratios will be higher if it gets here later.

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

poof poof poof heat mizer heat mizer heat mizer

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

This storm isn’t poofing.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

rofl..not even close snow hater

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

Only Big Papa Poof has those powers

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

She’s just clearing her throat Bevis.

Props for anyone who can tell me the movie that came from.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

sounds like a dante’s peak qoute?

Jason
Guest
Jason

Did the groundhog get fired? Asking for Spring

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

What spring? This crap is going to last until May, folks. I thought that warmth we had in December would come back……………..with all this deep snowpack no way it will be able to. Let’s see how many are modeling in April-May as these continue.

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

Everybody keeps saying that the storm is just going to weaken right when it gets to St Louis…..you can’t make this stuff up. If its going to snow….I don’t want to see some measly 2 inches.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Completely off topic, but check out this wonderful video of a blind elephant captivated by a guy playing piano:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOr2O0FfpT8

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yeah, I’ve seen that…very cool.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

You’re welcome.

POOF POOF POOF

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

That only works when a storm actually goes poof Big Papa Poof. Better luck next time. 😉

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

heat mizer its going poof poof poof

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

We couldn’t get that lucky. He lives here.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Only way this happens, sorry to say, this time is if the NE push of dry air undercuts the snow totals. The one positive is it is happening during this timeframe thus no issues commuting to and from work this week. That, though, won’t stop the streak of kids not having a full week of school since freaking December! Snow also creates its own weather (already has up north and affecting us here big time) and we will be surrounded by it come tomorrow. And you thought growing season was a late one last year………………

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Will be interesting to see how this system unfolds tonight NWS upped snowfall here near St Joseph to 2-4 between 1:00 am and morning with another inch tomorrow before noon.

Then forecasting more Thursday and Thursday night and again Saturday.

Time to see which snowfall forecast verifies and how snowy March will be.

Still have about 2 inches of snow and ice on most areas up here unless people cleared there driveways and the ground gets full southern exposure.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

I agree, … it is not really snow that s left it is almost ice because of the 1.1 in of rain into the snow at 33-35 degrees, it has kept us colder wit the wind blowing off the snow pack to our north.

keeping an eye on radar and water vapor loop to see if it is coming out of the mountains as forecast … maybe it slides north.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I was in stj this morning, I was impressed by how much more snow there was than down here! I didn’t expect conditions to be that different. It looks like March might be a bit intense, at least at the beginning. I don’t think we’re headed for another March 1960, but you never know.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Models status:

HRRR: 4-7, highest southwest, lowest northeast (and not northwest for once!)
RAP: hard to see, but looks like an even 5-7 spread across the metro
FV3: 3-6, highest southwest, lowest northeast
GFS: 3-4, highest southwest, lowest northeast

No NAM because it’s broken apparently

Freezemiser
Member
Freezemiser

Bring on the snow! (I need a morning to sleep in, LOL!)

John
Guest
John

I hope you get your 4 or 5 inches, and I will hope I get my 2 or 3 inches. Then we both get what we want, but then there will be thousands of other people that will be disappointed in one way or another, and then we will move on to disagree for days about the next storm, and the one after that. Just stating my opinion about being done with winter does not make me a troll, unless you were not directing those comments at me, but I can’t tell since you only replied to my posts. Spring… Read more »

Adam
Guest
Adam

Smile and wave boys, smile and wave.

Brandon
Guest
Brandon

So people will pay attention to winter weather conditions maybe the NWS should begin at the low end (WWA) and move up. Issuing WS watch yesterday morning for borderline totals is a mistake. They called for 4-6 inches. Then this morning downgraded to WWA with the same 4-6 total. This leads to confusion and to people ignoring the stronger warnings.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Fells good to see that 4-5 inch band right over me hoping for one more solid snow than warmup.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

comment image

from NWS

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

3-4 for Lawrence and southern half of KC, with potential upside of five…all wind blown and drifting, followed by arctic air. Trolls aside, sounds like things are right on track. Lets laugh at the trolls and enjoy yet another KC area snow…BRING IT!!!! WOO HOO!!!! We are gonna be close to 30 inches for the winter so far with more likely to come. I know I’m happy!!!! 🙂

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

hear mizer do you really like driving and shoveling this crap i am olds hard for me to shovel

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Then move down to Miami where there’s literally no seasons.

Bob
Guest
Bob

“I did not issue a Winter Storm Watch a couple of days ago,”

That’s because you don’t work for the NWS and have no authority to do so.

Jonathan
Guest
Jonathan

He’s saying that he would not have issued it if he did have the authority. Gary knows who he does and does not work for. Lay off the attitude

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

I agree with you Jonathan.

Bob, did Gary do something to you personally to warrant your mean-spirited comment directed at him? Uncalled for.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

5:02 PM update from the NWS, Topeka
comment image?bcf0f5b4e0cf94a90f961b486aa9590e

Someweatherdude
Guest
Someweatherdude

Kansas City, the perennial snow dodger. Having a new blog that has as its main statement something likely to disappoint 80% of your blog audience is a bold move.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

26-33 inches so far this winter. Some will wind up over 40 for season when it’s all over. How in the world is that snow dodging? It’s a legit post, not a critique of your post.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

While I see your point about this year, my experience in KC has left me with a distinct feeling that KC “just misses” snow a lot. I’ve lived in Houston, Dallas, KC, Des Moines, Chicago, Minneapolis and Indianapolis. Although some of those places obviously get virtually no snow, I still feel that KC has more situations than anywhere else I’ve lived where snow is forecast to fall in some amount and it either is a lot less than forecast or misses us completely. Our location is right on that battle line where southern climate meets northern climate. And if you… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

4-5 inches for Lawrence….pretty much what has been forecast all along…this is awesome…wind driven and drifting…arctic air behind it. Wow!

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Gary’s map has 4-5 inches south of you, not that it matters.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

He has us in 3-4, with an additional inch possible, so that is 3-5, NWS showing widespread 4s, so 4 is probably a pretty good bet. With blowing and drifting snow, one inch just is pretty irrelevant anyway.

Scott
Guest
Scott

Gary, so you think 3-5 in your old neighborhood of South OP?

Jake Pro
Guest
Jake Pro

I said 2-3” just to the other day and Heat Miser said sarcastically, “crazy how you know more than the professionals” welllppp! Nailed it! Haha. Always better to aim low and avoid disappointment when you’re a snow lover in KC.

John
Guest
John

I remember this comment and you were just stating what the professionals on this station were saying, so I guess all of you got it right. He also asked me what I was smoking yesterday when I said we were only going to get 2-4″, but apparently I wasn’t wrong either.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Wasn’t wrong? Maybe you’ll be right, but wouldn’t it be more appropriate to say you got it right AFTER the even has happened? I guess I need to go to Vegas with you since you have it all figured out. Who will win the super bowl in 2027? I’m marking it down after you tell me so I can cash in then!!!! Wohoo!!! I’m going to be rich.

John
Guest
John

I’m just going by what I am seeing outside. This wind straight out of the North all day has really dried the air out. The humidity is under 60% and getting lower. The sky completely cleared out up here after about 3 o’clock this afternoon. Without that strong north wind it would have been a nice day outside. Like Gary said if the wind doesn’t switch to the east or northeast then the dry air will continue to be pumped in, and make a more significant snowstorm less likely. I will say I’m wrong if I am when I wake… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LOL…its what trolls do.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Don’t let her get to you. Heat is a classic internet troll.

John
Guest
John

I don’t think he is a troll, just strong opinions on wishcasting for every storm. There are definitely trolls on this blog, but Heat is not one of them.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

I still don’t get the hate towards Heat Miser. I’ve been reading this blog for a year now and haven’t seen the purpose behind it. Maybe i’ve just missed their hateful posts or troll like posts, but I don’t think I have. Somehow they’ve just become the easy person to hate it seems.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Nailed it? the current forecast for our region is 1-8 inches and 2-5 for the Metro area so how is a guess of 2-3 nailing it? One other point, the storm hasn’t happened so hard to say whether any person or meteorologist nailed it wouldn’t you agree?

Jake Pro
Guest
Jake Pro

That’s a fair point, Joe! I’m stickin with it until the end though! 2-3 around the metro (I’m in Shawnee, so I’ll be sure to report my totals tomorrow). Closer to 4 south of here, 2ish near Shawnee/downtown KCMO. And for the record, I love snow. Would love to see us get 5-6”+.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

I think the cold will slow enough to let that northerly prong get a narrow band 20-25 miles wide up here leaving me 4 inches

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Did u know that today’s sun angle is the same as what’s seen on oct 10? Spring is coming or so I keep telling myself!

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

ty, was trying to do the math in y head

John
Guest
John

I like how you hardly ever change your snowfall forecast, you have had it at 2-4″ for 3 days now. That appears to be what is going to happen. Still hoping for less than 2, because this winter has been exhausting and I’m done with it.

John
Guest
John

This has just been a fairly normal winter. This city has just become wimpy because the last few winters have been so warm and snow free. Strap some on man.

John
Guest
John

I don’t see how you can say this is a fairly normal winter when we are already 7″ of snow above the average. We had the earliest measurable snowfall in the cities history. This is the record wettest period between 0ct. 1st and March 1st. It is also the first time that we have not had one 65+ degree day from Nov. 1st to March 1st. I would actually call that anything but normal.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

But overall, this winter has been closer to normal than the last three. We’re running a about 35% above normal snowfall. I suppose that number could go up, and I’d change my tune. But the last three winters had far less than 50% of normal snowfall. This Winter has been colder than normal, but not nearly as much so as winter 2015-16 and 2016-17 were above normal. I’ll give you that it’s been wet. But “wet” can happen during any season. That’s not a winter thing. Yes, this winter has been wintry for KC. But certainly nothing particularly extraordinary. This… Read more »

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Snow free? Yes. Warm? Not all of recent winters were warm at all. It’s easy to look up temps. Try it.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Last year averaged pretty close to normal. I think around a degree below normal overall. But we only had 7 inches of snow. The two before that were well above normal temps with even less snow.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

three to four in the south part of KC with 5 possible on the upside. Its great. Remember, Gary starts very conservative, then raises snowfall predictions as it gets closer if warranted. Sometimes he does, sometimes he doesnt.

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Whah.

Lewis
Guest
Lewis

Dissapointment