Winter Storm Watch: Saturday Night-Sunday Morning

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Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the KC metro area. This is for Saturday night into Sunday morning.  I am not as bullish on snowfall totals as there is still concern for the northern edge of this system being a bit too close for comfort. I am still expecting the potential and likely 2″ to 5″ snowfall accumulation over the KC metro area. The only way it will go over the 4 or 5 inches is if the main disturbance tracks closer to KC and is a bit more organized than most of the models are showing.

Winter Watch

The Winter Storm Watch extends from parts of western Kansas east across the KC metro area and into central Missouri east to western Illinois.  We have had a few I-70 snowstorms this winter and this looks like another one. Kansas City may very well be closer to the northern edge of the storm, and this is one of my concerns. How close will this northern edge be?  Will it be on the Iowa border, or will it be near Cameron, MO?  The closer this northern edge is locate, the lower the amounts are possible, and if it is indeed near the Iowa border, than some of the higher amounts are possible.

Snow ForecastThis is the snowfall forecast I am going with at the moment.  This part of the LRC, the cycling weather pattern, has produced in all previous cycles. In cycle 1, this part of the pattern produced the drought busting and drought ending 10 inches of rain. In cycle 2, KC had the blizzard where we went from rain and above nearly 60 degrees in the early morning hours of November 25th, to a blizzard by 1 PM, flash freezing, and horrible driving conditions. In LRC cycle 3, it was the tailgating experience at Arrowhead for the Colts-Chiefs game where the Chiefs finally won a game at Arrowhead, and 6″ of snow fell during the three hour tailgating experience due to the upper low forming and taking a perfect track to produce that heavy band. It was a narrow heavy band that happened to hit the south metro to Arrowhead Stadium.  And, now we are at day 1 of Cycle 4 of this years pattern.  There is only one blemish on our weather forecast record, as I see it this season. I thought it would warm up into the 60s ahead of this system, and instead we completed February rather cold, and that warm up will be delayed.  Other than that, we have predicted each one of these storms accurately, picking out the features that would impact KC. There is another feature to find as we approach Saturday night. Where will the main system track? If it is a bit more organized and farther north, the amounts would be increased. And, if it is just a bit farther south, that northern edge will be too close for comfort, for us snow enthusiasts.

Sunny The Weather Dog is hoping for higher snowfall totals.  Here is our forecast for a couple locations, north of I-70, and south of I-70:

North KC Snowfall

Olathe Snowfall

If you break this down, I am forecasting 2-3 inches over the north KC metro area, and 3-5 inches over the south metro area.  If I see any evidence of more or less, then we will update this forecast.  It may seem that I am being a bit conservative, and I am just not on the higher snowfall amount bandwagon at this moment. Those snowfall probabilities are where I am at right now.  So, I am predicting around 3″ north to 4″ south. Remember, Kansas City had gone almost five years without having 3″ in one storm before November 25th. This would be the fourth one, and three of them almost exactly on cycle, November 25th, January 12th, and this weekend.  Yes, this storm was predicted 100 days ago to happen around the first couple days of March.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:  Winter Storm Watch Saturday Night-Sunday

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with light winds.  A great day for a walk with your dog.  High: 40°
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy with a wind shift to the north to northeast around 10 mph.  Low: 20°
  • Saturday:  Mostly cloudy with a northeast breeze around 10 mph.  High:  31°
  • Saturday night:  A 100% chance of snow, possibly heavy at times, especially south. Increasing north winds 10-25 mph.  Low:  13°
  • Sunday:  A 100% chance of snow, tapering off to flurries. Total accumulations of 2″ to 5″ likely.  Some blowing and drifting of the fluffier snow is possible with north winds gusting to 25 mph.
  • Monday morning:   Frigid.  Clearing sky with a low of -3°

Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Let’s monitor the latest data and have a great conversation on the Weather2020 blog.

Gary

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Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

When you look at the upper lows and lower highs, the cresting and looping, it says to me this storm will be a monster. Right now, it appears a Blitzkrieg Storm is forming and the battle line is I-70. If this pattern holds, and I am confident it will, we’re looking at 12+ inches for KC metro (unless of course the gov spreads chem trails to bring down those amounts).

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

National Weather Service liking widespread 4-6 inches from Lawrence across to KC

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Jeff has on kshb main site 2-4 for kc metro. I wonder who will be right??? 2-4 versus 4-6….not a lot of moisture difference, but pretty sizable difference in snow amounts.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Moderate snow here in Republic County. This was supposed to stay up in NE but mother nature apparently didn’t look at the models.

Clint
Guest
Clint
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think the models are locked in finally now. 4-6″ south I-70, 2-4″ north I-70.

Monday’s low should be around +2F. Not quite as bad as advertised for a while now. Still cold.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Need new blog

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

The new NAM and short term models are very similar showing a 4-6” band along I70, increasing as you head farther west.

Araignee
Guest
Araignee

Jeff said it would be dry until midnight, however there is already snow on radar. Its not small, either. Anyone know what is going on? I had hoped to be able to get out and get some errands done before it hits. As a side note, this is not an attack on Jeff. Its a genuine question, as in “Oh no, snow is here already? Did something change?” If it is hitting earlier than expected, I just won’t leave. The roads here outside Excelsior get really bad fast, and they don’t seem to treat them before storms. Chancing the roads… Read more »

D100patel
Guest
D100patel

What you are seeing in radar is staying north. It’s not coming towards kc I believe.

Clint
Guest
Clint

Thats not reaching the ground.

Clint
Guest
Clint

When its all said and done I think I-70 and south will see a WSW and 6+ inches.

JOSH
Guest
JOSH

The 6Z NAM and 6Z GFS look good for snow lovers. That heavy band is right on the south side of KC.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Why do we call it modelitus when the storm is less than 24 hours out? I generally define modelitus as jumping the gun on stuff 5 days out, but 24 hours out is worth analyzing things deeply.

Admitted – I do it alot. I need a support group or intervention.

SnowBadger
Guest

Y’all aren’t going to believe this! It’s going to SNOW!

Let’s have fun with the Fluffy Stuff!

Be safe, stay warm, and enjoy!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Not to jump the gun but the GFS has quite the snow storm for u guys next wknd. Fv3 is north of GFS and Euro north of it but it def is worth watching. One thing is for sure, there hasn’t been a shortage of storms or moisture.

JOSH
Guest
JOSH

Yeah, have been hearing quite a bit about next weekend already, and that is with a winter storm on our doorstep this weekend. Wouldn’t surprise me in the winter that keeps on giving, and giving, and giving… It’s like give up mother nature, you can’t fight the calendar forever. 🙂

Mike M (Lenexa)
Guest
Mike M (Lenexa)

Radar shows a small band of precipitation that has held together for the last several hours moving in from the west.

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

The entire state of California is being hammered by the approaching storm. 😳

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ 06z hrrr has exactly what I believe will happen

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Looks great!

JOSH
Guest
JOSH

There’s widespread modelitis on this blog tonight, worse than the flu lol.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good late evening to you sir!! I’m going to stick with my 3 inches for Lawrence overall. While the NAM is for sure throwing out danger Will Robinson signs, I am still convinced that Lawrence’s south and west location will help in this set up and that we can squeeze out 3 inches. I am actually located 10 miles SW of Lawerence so I may be able to squeeze out 3.5 at my house which would make this the third biggest snow of the season. Would not be surprised if the 56/59 junction to Ottawa picks up 4-4.5. For… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

WWA for 3-5 inches in Lawrence, with the wind and the brutal cold…very wintry. Works for me!

Clint
Guest
Clint
someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

KC

Jan
Guest
Jan

I can deal with 3” on Sat & Sun. Less would be great. My dachshunds do not like the snow.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Topeka and Lawrence have been added to the Winter Weather Advisory. Another nuisance snow on the way.

Clint
Guest
Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

goin’ down down down

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Please don’t get me wrong but I’m disappointed that what started out as a possible main snow event last week going down to about 2 inches I’m in Platte county Now no one is to blame, but we’ve been going through this again and again I admire Gary for not going along with the majority of predictions I trust him to tell us like it is And he has been right again and again Today it’s the NWS that surprises me I put my hopes on this storm being a serious snow maker Now, just 2 inches, and it will… Read more »

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Want a real kick in the sack? Check this model out. comment image

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

been sayin’ 1-2 for three days

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

So this model says that and it means it’s spot on?

Terry
Guest
Terry

No it doesn’t mean it’s spot on

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

👍

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

I think 4-6 is solid and has been the whole time 3 days out. NAM has been weak.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Gary has been bold on under 5 inches I think this would be his worst miss if we get more (I don’t think we will)

Clint
Guest
Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

too much

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

GFS 4-6″

FV3 5-10″

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

It really is kind of amazing. The Twin Cities today got around 6 inches of snow when 2-4 was predicted. It was just a random upper level wave moving through that didn’t even have a surface low associated with it. Just a little ripple in the atmosphere that dumped six inches of snow with temps in the teens. They’ve been a magnet this year. KC does it’s best to dodge storms. What happens when a ripple comes through here when the temps get that cold? It gets pushed to the south. And what about when it’s not that cold? Texas… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Unfortunately, it’s still snowing but you’re right, original forecast was for 1 to 3

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

thanks dude.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Do u miss living up this way? I miss my time in KC! I’m ready for big lightning strikes and rolling thunder!

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

The only reason I live in KC is because my family is here. We moved around the whole time I was growing up, but they finally stopped moving when I went to college. I’ve lived in 6 states. I lived in Chicago for 10 years before moving here to be close to family. I don’t know that I could talk my wife and family into moving to Minnesota. But there are a lot of places I’d rather live than KC (I’m sure not a popular sentiment on this blog). I’ll eventually find my way to one of them. Not that… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I also have lived and traveled all over and I will always have fond memories of my time in KC area. U never know where life will take u but in my 40 yrs of existence I know I don’t want to settle. I don’t see my immediate family often but I know I made the right choice when I moved to se MN. I hope u find the fit that is right for u and your family wxdude! Enjoy your incoming snow brother. I hope this storm has a surprise in store for ya.

Jhwk95
Guest
Jhwk95

Well said! Bravo!

Jeffg
Guest
Jeffg

This has probably already been asked, but which model handled this storm in the previous 2 cycles? Thanks

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It’s interesting how the way the storms happen can change the perception. I bet this winter feels snowier than 2009-2010 for a lot of people.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Post storm, March chant with me know.. WARM UP, WARM UP, WARM UP.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary said another snow storm showing up for next weekend. LoL..nice try though.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Gary said…Gary said…is he your daddy?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

“look at me, look at me…see me!!!!” cries the troll.

John
Guest
John

He has also said 2-4 as the main possibility for this storm, but you disagree with that. I know you will say you haven’t said anything like that, but all day you have been saying 5-6 inches for most. I almost think you just hear and read what you want and don’t actually listen or read what information is being presented to you.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Yeah, I heard that. How about MID MARCH WARM UP, hahaha

John
Guest
John

I agree.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Really liking that 00z NAM!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Now now emaw… LOL

Josh
Guest
Josh

Hey, I’ll give you a like on your comment. When you’ve had a crappy, cold, snowy winter, you just get over it. I don’t care whether we get flurries or 10″ tomorrow. I’m ready for a 100 degree July day! #OverWinter #OverPotholes 🙂

Athan
Guest
Athan

If we keep hoping and praying this storm will slide South and eventually go POOF POOF POOF!!! I am sick and tired of this winter I want spring to come in quickly!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

gonna go with 5-9″ for the KC area. Basing that on the previous cycle results….Nov. blizzard, and Jan.12 Heavy wet snow. Looking at the models is just frustrating

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LOL..you’re funny

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

hehehe

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

00z HRRR just starting to get in range. Looks better than NAM with all of Kansas in moderate snow and all that snow heading our way, 1″ by hr 36.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

00z NAM faster and weaker again, back to 2-3″ KC metro again.

comment image

Lewis
Guest
Lewis

So frustrating

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

1 to 2 inches in St. Joseph again. Getting kind of tired of the same amount over and over. I am more sick of this bitterly cold weather. It was supposed to be warmer today that was 33° on March 1 almost 17° below the average 30 year norm.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

South of 36 2-4 tomorrow night and one inch on Sunday, looks to be another 3-5 again. If this plays out I’ll be near 45 for the winter and the Thursday through next weekend systems could end up getting my to 50 inches for the season. That’s way too much, ready for spring, thaw and hope some of the moisture can soak back in the ground.

MICHELE Springs
Guest

Is that all St. Joe is supposed to get?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

NWS showing widespread 5-6 inch amounts from Topeka to KC, depending on which nws office you look at.

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

2-4 inches for Platte city according to nws

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

looking at the latest NWS snowfall total maps for the area

Pooter
Guest
Pooter

Either way with these temps and the chaos on Wednesday with tiny amount of ice, it will be impactful. BUT, this thing gonna dive South a star it gets going and KC sees maybe 2″.

Josh
Guest
Josh

Anyone want to take a guess at how many comments we get tomorrow before, during and after the storm? I’ll go 500, I realize that is a crazy amount, but we are at over 250 the day before the storm… What is the record for comments on 1 single blog? TIA

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Record is I believe 587 on February 19 2019 lol

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Didn’t we have one over 1,000 once? I could be wrong.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I thought the November blizzard got to 700 something, but apparently not. People say that the “old KSHB blog” used to get over 1000 comments and crash during major storms.

Adam
Guest
Adam

The KSHB blog used to regularly get to 500 to 1000 plus comments and just go into ‘help me’ mode.lol

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I think we did with the Xmas blizzard years ago mabye

Josh
Guest
Josh

Pretty sure you’re right. It would crash quite a bit, let’s put it that way lol.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Everyone that lives along and south of I-70 are getting a massive winter storm. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some places get under heavy snow bursts over 2” per hour for brief periods of time. Plenty of lift and moisture for the system to work with.

Terry
Guest
Terry

I live a long just north of I 70 I’m a block from there and can see I 70 from my Drive way Yeah.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I swear I’m going to move because of this

N O R T H L A N D S P L I T !

Nate
Guest
Nate

7″ storm is massive? Are you from Florida?

Adam
Guest
Adam

It’s pretty big for here. I’ve lived in upstate NY before and 7 inches pales as compared to what we received there. Having said that though our city road crews pale compared to the resources they have up there also. So, it’s all relative.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Yeah. This is no snowbelt. Northeast Ohio (where I lived for a bit) shrugs off a foot of snow all the time. 7″ in Kansas City is “major.”

Nate
Guest
Nate

There’s a ton of guys with tools longer than 7″, put that in perspective

Just me
Guest
Just me

Can anyone tell me about what time all of this is suppose to start on Saturday evening please??

Swindogs
Guest
Swindogs

After ten

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

looks like after 9pm or so at this moment

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

Maybe closer to 11 or midnight until about 6 or 7 in the morning

Just me
Guest
Just me

Thank you!

Just me
Guest
Just me

Thank you!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Nws up this way just announced their total for Winona for the month of Feb at 43.6! My tally at my house just outside Winona was for 45.8in. absolutely crazy! We now sit at just over 70 in for the yr! I’m Soo over the snow but I do enjoy being part of records being broken. Snowiest yr ever for this location is about 92 inches. Oh spring, where are u old friend?

steelwheel67
Guest
steelwheel67

Wow! For the month? Thats impressive

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Yeah, pretty crazy. Never seen anything like it. Been snowing here since about noon. This after cleaning out about 6 more switches. Roadmaster sent those of us with cdls home as many of us are out of dot hours. I’ll get my reset and get back at sunday

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

This thing is definitely trending north. I’m expecting a minimum of 10 inches for KC metro.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Do you realize the hype if we got 10-14 inches? NEws stations would be on 24/7 saying how it is the apocalypse….no food, no power, city governments close. Things MIGHT get back to normal by Halloween…end times I tell you end times

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

That would be a big deal for this area…they arent used to those amounts at all.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Sure “Joe” (wink wink), that’s what they would say. Nailed it.

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

If u as so

Joe
Guest
Joe

Yeah they would let’s be honest…easy reporting and full of drama…that way every station could show a clip how they had continuous coverage and how they are the leader in weather and news….although you would have to feel for them with the constant coverage it would be long hours….like a teacher or 12 hour shift for medical, fire,etc shift……wink 😉

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Joe, I was partially with you regarding the hype by media, but your lack of empathy for what teachers, EMS, firefighters and law enforcement experience is just plan ignorant. use logic, if these folks left their respective fields to earn better pay, who would educate our children, save our homes/businesses from fires, protect our loved ones from a growing number of criminals and respond when we are experiencing medical emergencies? It amazes me to see just how much these individuals are taken for granted , but i bet you wouldn’t hesitate to call them if a loved one needed them?… Read more »

Joe
Guest
Joe

I Am not against these fields at all however it’s all perspective…no one talks about the guys filling potholes or picking up the trash – why not talk about these guys to…they are important …I am just like the other guy not trying to be mean but pick a profession where yyou feel you are paid what you are worth…after serving as a marine I drove a school bus in Minnesota…I never complained or asked for empathy. I did my job cause that’s how I was raised. I in theory was a government employee…but didn’t need someone telling me I… Read more »

John
Guest
John

I thought you said you were leaving this blog and not watching Channel 41 News anymore. I’m pretty sure it was about a week ago.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

You’re a jerk Joe. I beg you to suggest telling me in person. Please, please Please. I’m betting you will just be silent. I’m game.

Joe
Guest
Joe

No silence here

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Then say the word my man

John
Guest
John

Did Gary do a Facebook live?

Kadens Brother
Guest
Kadens Brother

Kaden! I’m not gonna tell you again! Stay out of my room and stop touching my stuff! I’m to the point where I’m gonna tell mom on you! Have you not been paying attention at school cause you’re so busy on this blog? You need to stop and start focusing on your school work. Touch my stuff in my room again and mom will find out!!!!!!!!

02906
Guest
02906

The snow can’t be stopped but Spring has never not sprung. Enjoy the tranquility of the coming weather event. Be smart, be safe and everything will be just fine.