A Look Into the Weekend Storm: Watch That Northern Edge Closely

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Good morning bloggers,

We will be adding to the 26.3″ snowfall total this weekend. the first snow fell on October 14th, the earliest snowfall accumulation in Kansas City history.  Kansas City has not reached 65 degrees since it was 65° on October 30th. The last 70 degree day was October 29th.  This is the first time in Kansas City’s history that it did not reach 65° from November through February.  KC averages nine 65°+ days per winter season.

The warmest temperatures since that last 65° on October 30, 2018:

  • February 3:  64°
  • November 22:  63°
  • January 7:  61°
  • December 18:  58°

This is really incredible. Another take away from this is that warmest December day of only 58°.  The perception that it was so warm in December is quite obviously not reality. It was 3 degrees above average for the month, because the Arctic air did not finally blast down until January.  This is a long and cold winter we are experiencing, and some of the coldest air is blasting south this weekend. Speaking of this weekend, there is a disturbance heading our way:

2

This storm coming into California can be seen on this mornings satellite pictures:

Screen Shot 2019-02-28 at 7.33.39 AM

How this system holds together will likely answer some questions about where the heaviest snow will track on Saturday night and Sunday.  The models are barely holding this system together in response to the northern branch of the jet stream that is strengthening. This will create the concern for where the northern edge of the snow will end up tracking:

3

The 552 is being modeled as the southern edge of the northern branch of the jet stream, which is on the base of a deep vortex north of Minnesota.  And, the 558 line is the northern edge of the southern branch of the jet stream. I know, it sounds pretty complex right? Where the confluence between the two branches will likely be where the northern edge of our potential snow will be located.

  • If the system, racing our way from the Pacific Ocean and tracking into Utah and Arizona Saturday night, is just a bit stronger, then the northern edge of the snow will end up a bit farther north. This would lead to higher snowfall amounts in KC
  • If the system is any weaker and farther south, then that northern edge of snow could get rather close, too close for comfort
  • These are the things to monitor as we analyze the data

4

This system is still over two days away, so many more solutions are ahead of us.  Here is the GFS model that has that northern edge just near the Iowa/Missouri border.

1

Kansas City’s Snowfall Amount Probabilities: These will be updated each day as we get closer

  • Chance of no snow:  0%
  • Chance of 1″ of snow:  100%
  • Chance of 2″ of snow:  80%
  • Chance of 3″ of snow:  60%
  • Chance of 4″ of snow:  40%
  • Chance of 5″ of snow:  20%
  • Chance of more than 5″ of snow:  10%

And, yes, around nine days from now there will be another storm to track, and it was stronger than this one in the last cycle.  So, this winter ride is far from over.  Have a great Thursday. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. This storm is right on schedule.

Gary

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f00dl3JoshStl78(winon,mn)Manny CarrilloBill in Lawrence Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

NAM faster and weaker
comment image

Josh
Guest
Josh

One thing about this winter, most potholes I have EVER saw in my life. They said yesterday they fixed 45 potholes on 1 bridge alone last week. Pothole repair on K10 today. At least the city admitted defeat yesterday and said they were losing the pothole battle and being inundated with calls to 311.

Josh
Guest
Josh

NWS in Topeka is showing 4-6″ with 6-8″ right south of the KC Metro area. The bullseye is still setting up right south and east of KC. That has been consistent for sure. https://www.weather.gov/top/weatherstory

f00dl3
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f00dl3

comment image

06z GFS going south :S

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Wsw? I don’t see it. What am I missing? Maybe today’s runs will help clarify but as of overnight runs I see 1 to 3. Am I missing something?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Well I’m shocked, they did put us in a WSW. Right as now none of the 06z GFS/FV3/NAM/3KM runs show us getting more than 3-5″. Kiss of death, this Blizzard is bound to be a 1-3″ no impact event now.

Manny Carrillo
Guest
Manny Carrillo

Winter Storm Watch issued for KC
4-7 inches of snow by Sunday at 3p

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good evening to you sir. Hope the meeting went well today that you mentioned earlier in the blog!!! So if you are a met in Springfield, Mo and it is now 48 hours before the storm and the 2 main American models…the NAM and GFS have nothing similar for your area. The NAM has maybe a dusting the GFS has 14 inches….what a descrepency. The GFS has the main wave tracking over northern Oklahoma the NAM has it between Fort Scott and Pittsburg, Kansas. Then the GFS-FV comes out and has the wave track almost identical as the NAM… Read more »

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056
Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

Like I previously stated. Up here 1/2 inches and that’s it.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056
Morgan
Guest
Morgan

GFS even further south of previous run.

Ryan
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Ryan

Yep.comment image

Ryan
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Ryan

FV3 comment image

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

FV3’s gone north it seems!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Whether we end up with 3 or 4 inches, or 5 or 6 inches…doesnt much matter…its going to be really cold and really snowy either way

Terry
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Terry

Lol things will change because that’s not a reliable model

Inspector
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Inspector

Will there be a FB live?
-heatmiser

Joshua
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Joshua

NAM just jumped way north and stronger.

Glenn
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Glenn

Do you have a link

jcling64056
Guest
Glenn
Guest
Glenn

Maybe 2 or 3 inches for Platte city this run

John
Guest
John

Right now it appears like this storm will act just like every other major storm this winter where the north side of the city gets 1/3 of the south side. I’m not complaining though because I’m tired of snow and cold.

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

It may be too early to see if this weekend’s system has a “polar bear effect” (where you get some looping and shifting and then unexpected build) but if it does, expect the bullseye over KC. I’m talking 20+ inches. Again, though, it’s too early to tell, and being as methodical and careful as I am in my forecasting, I do not like to jump to hasty or premature conclusions. I’m just throwing it out there.

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

I don’t appreciate the downvotes. Gary is my hero.
I love weather and I love to forecast. I studiously examine all the models and make predictions. Sometimes I am wrong, but more often than not (about 90% of the time) I am dead right. I have been correct about everyone weather event for the past 4 months. I am sensing much jealousy and sour grapes from my detractors.

Three7s
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Three7s

Hi Rusty!

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Go away

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

naw, your attempts at being funny just get really old. Talk weather, lose the routine.

Tim in Lone Jack
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Tim in Lone Jack

Not sure who has the most immature posts on here..Dale or Kaden. Its ridiculous.

Joe
Guest
Joe

1. Any model regardless if it’s 8 days out or 4 hours out from a storm and it says 8 inches of snow -80 percent of the people on here say “that model is correct!! Yup it’s right!”.
2. Any model regardless of its 8 days out or 4 hours out from a storm and it says a dusting – 2 inches -80 percent of the people on here say “model is an outlier, it will change, can’t be trusted”
Interesting correlation…I think they call this wishcasting!!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Not true. You’re over generalizing

Joe
Guest
Joe

Read the comments lol…it verifies

Rodney
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Rodney

I have a feeling that the National Weather Service office in St Louis will issue winter storm watch by tomorrow evening or Saturday morning at the latest for counties along and south of interstate 70 especially since they’re saying in their evening forecast discussion they’re expecting many areas to see 5 to 6 inches of snow.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I want snow the least of all and appear to be in prime spot to get higher totals. Running out of hay, I can’t feed until April.
Also……the soil moisture content right now is scary. It’s just not supposed to be this wet this time of year….creeks are so full and we haven’t started big rains yet. This will become dire quickly

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Mosquitoes will love all the standing water. However, the spring blooms and green should be very lush with the water to draw from.

This whole town is going to be so happen when we get our first week of sun and 70 degree temps.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Im going to go with the fact that the bulls eye In wichita to me that just wont happen. Cmon now, its never down there. Models are silly silly right now, and south central kansas hasnt had a storm like that in ages. Lets see if that streak ends w this one.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So what started the idea that models don’t have a handle on storms until they are on shore? I realize that they don’t sample all the data – but in my experience the models are at their worst the day of the storm when it’s more a now casting situation anyway? If having the data on the storm is such a help, shouldn’t models be 100% accurate 6 hours before the storm? Many times I see the long range models more accurate 3 days out than 6 hours out! Many times I see the HRRR nail it 12 hours out… Read more »

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

maybe we will get a clearer picture on tonight’s models? what do you think f00dl3?

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

So when a model nailed it 3 days out, but had a bad solution 6 hours out, was the 3 day out one good, or just lucky?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Foodl3, The accuracy has been dictated by their historical performance. Each model has demonstrated a percentage of accuracy as compared to days/hours out from the system. For example, it is my understanding that the Euro is most accurate 3-5 days out, the GFS 2-4 days and the NAM 1-3 days. of course, these are somewhat subjective in nature. With that said, I have tried to do some testing of my own over the past few years and have found there is a fairly significant margin of error with all the models as has been observed by many on here over… Read more »

Terry
Guest
Terry

Um Gary said that it will get a better handle on it the And haven’t you ever heard that from Gary lol

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

when they first come onshore and are sampled is still well over a day away from when they get here Sweet spot?

Terry
Guest
Terry

System still way off west coast and still alot of time to change and it probably will even the same day to. I’m going with 4 to 6 Inches .

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

And it continues on and on and on and………………..at this rate kids won’t have a full week of school until MAY. Watch this happen………….

Kelly in LS
Guest
Kelly in LS

We haven’t had a full week of school since the first week we returned from winter break in January. But hey, if we get to 14 snow days they forgive the rest, so there’s that I guess.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

Does not look good for me, a little south and back to 1-2 inches,

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

What are you looking at?

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

NAM, GFS, FV3, EURO all have a sharp cutoff … I say again 36hwy runs east west through StJoe many many people put it north of StJOE….. Look at a map.

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

Wonder what Platte city will get?

Steve
Guest
Steve

I’m not sure what they are seeing, but a Wichita station just gave a forecast of 1-2” for Central Kansas and T-1” for northern Kansas. 4” for Wichita. Looks like they are going totally with the NAM.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Actually, another really good meterologist said the opposite this morning…NAM like the previous storm is having trouble with this storm and will likely come to agree with the other models once it comes ashore.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Gary said the NAM was off this morning

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Gerard just showed 2-6 w/ higher amounts to the southeast.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

same as this time yesterday…you’d hope he could refine it just a bit 24 hrs later. Well, this time tomorrow they should have a good idea.

Terry
Guest
Terry

As of now that will change and go back and forth several times.

Kris
Guest
Kris

The freezing drizzle storm was not surposed to be north of the river but it did go north by quite a ways was wondering if a northern projection at the last minute would also happen ?

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

I have looked at all the models. I have spoken with all the experts. I have weighed all the evidence. With confidence, I forecast that the greater KC area will get between 8 and 15 inches this coming weekend. It’s going to be a biggun, folks, so hold on tight.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

@GrandSolarMinimum. Just look at all the extreme cold weather events squeezed into such a small window of time. Even back in the unreal winters of 2009-10-11 at least we got spring. Here’s betting we get no spring yet again……………….

JackFrost
Guest
JackFrost

Gary,

First I love this blog! Have been a member and reading every day since it started.

Didn’t the models for the January 11-12? storm (the one that dropped all the snow in Columbia) have the same tight banding on the northern edge before the storm then those bands shifted north? Would be interesting to compare in the spirit of the LRC.

Thanks for all you do to keep the weather exciting for us enthusiasts.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

It seems like there hasn’t been a better model this year, they have all been on and off even the GFS won the last storm.

Jake Pro
Guest
Jake Pro

We will get 2-3” max out of this storm. Book it! Lets warm up and get to spring so I can clean my car! Lol

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

wow…you know so much more than all the professionals mets…impressive.

Jake Pro
Guest
Jake Pro

Just my guess, Heat 🙂 I love snow as much as you I’m sure, but this screams classic KC snow storm. Aka, we on the north or south edge of the 6+” totals. Fingers crossed I’m wrong!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

seems to me either is just as likely at this point

jcling64056
Guest
Jason Rann
Guest
Jason Rann

I am officially in the poof camp. A little more south and we have nothing.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

18z GFS/FV3 are still nudging the storm south little by little. Will be interesting to see if the storm sets-up further south of the I-70 corridor in future runs. I’ve got a feeling I’ve seen this movie before.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

That cutoff is concerning – Gary’s northern edge. Goes from 2-8″ fast.

comment image

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

FV3 is even sharper but I think it’s going off the deep end on it’s bias w/ the 17-19″ totals over S. MO. I think the old GFS is better in that regard.

comment image

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

just one question… Who believes it will actually snow 17 inches in the Ozarks?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Who believed it would actually snow 54″ in South Dakota in a 24 hour time period… FV3 has serious problems lol.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

GFS is south of previous run.

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

GFS still shows heavy snow 5-10″

Becca
Guest
Becca

I think everyone needs to be reminded that for both previous snowstorms with this wave of energy, two days prior to the event the models backed off on amounts considerably and had most of the snow in St. Louis…including the NAM. It wasn’t until the day before the storm that the models showed the storm hammering KC. I am going out on a limb and saying in South OP we will get 8 inches, slightly less up North. I am going to go average the amounts we received the prior two storms (6 inches and 11 inches).

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Always less up north. Always. Always.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

except that its not always north

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Yes, it is. Always. The few times that a storm was predicted to mostly affect the north this season, it ended up affecting the whole metro roughly evenly.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Sounds like Topeka NWS may issue WSW/WWAs in tomorrow morning’s forecast. From this afternoon’s AFD:

“Thinking is that a 4 to 6 inch range along and south of I-70 won`t be unreasonable with lesser amounts generally north of the I-70 corridor. With certainty increasing, will probably have to issue headlines during the overnight period taking into account the 00Z data.”

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

4-6…that would be WWA. I wonder why they mention WSW

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

NWS forecast for 66208 claims about three to five inches Saturday night with another inch possible by Sunday morning. That’s upwards of half a foot.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

GFS and FV3 coming out now, lets see what they have to say

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

We do have to also keep in mind Gary does not think it is highly likely for us to see more than 3″. Chance of 4″ of snow: 40% Chance of 5″ of snow: 20% Chance of more than 5″ of snow: 10% So maybe Gary kind of agrees with the NAM showing widespread 2-3″ for KC? NWS appears to be buying the NAM in their latest AFD too – thinking 3-5″ southern 1/2 of CWA. I’m not so sure we should totally discount the Euro, CMC, GFS, and FV3 yet as all 4 models still show us in the… Read more »

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

Gary did say last night on the blog that the NAM was not materializing the storm correctly so I dunno

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

also keep in mind he’s conservative with his inital estimates, and those probabilities could go up

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

comment image

from NOAA

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

comment image:large

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

comment image?b20922b630b46a0fc419326041641722

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Even if models show it 5-7″ and NAM gets on board tomorrow, I still bet they will put us on a Winter Weather Advisory. NWS seems cautiously stubborn this year, except for the Blizzard Warnings earlier this season.

Ryan
Guest
TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

I would tend to agree. Winter storm watches are supposed to be issued when there is the potential for six or more inches of snow in a 24 hour period or eight or more inches of snow in a 36 hour. It is the word “potential” for a winter storm watch. I think the legitimate potential does exist for that in multiple counties along the I 70 and US 36 corridor. However, there is this little box at the top of kc noaa and top noaa seemed to emphasize the cold much more snow. Topeka saying a general 3 to… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

NWS buying the NAM. And definite Winter Weather Advisory.

“Given how cold this
setup is for snow, we will likely see snow:liquid ratios
approaching 20:1. This means that the several tenths of an inch of
QPF will be capable of yielding a swath of 3 to 5 inches of snow
across the southern half of the forecast. For now, there could be
pockets of higher amounts as well depending on how smaller scale
forcing plays out. Right now, this looks like a solid winter
weather advisory event, so have not issued a winter storm watch.”

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

that will be their downfall(buying into the NAM I mean), in my opinion

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yup, you aren’t the only person thinking that

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I read earlier on the NWS website they think for our area total could “approach” Warning criterea

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Pivotal weathers NAM and tropical tidbits are much different

Matt
Guest
Matt

Are you looking at the 10:1 ratio or Kuchera on Pivotal?

Both sites look pretty much the same to me when looking at 10:1

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

They both show similar amounts comment imagecomment image

Terry
Guest
Terry

I dont think Nam model is getting a good handle on this storm system because it’s still why of the west coast! So give it tomorrow and it should do better.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

18z Nam
comment image

Terry
Guest
KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The temperature at the Manhattan airport hasn’t dropped below zero so far this winter. The lowest was 1° (twice in January), and the warmest was 71° on February 3. The lowest we’ve dropped to up here (25 miles north of Manhattan) is 0°.
If the NWS is correct, the temperature at the Manhattan airport will dip below 0° this weekend, but the Euro model doesn’t agree.
Here’s a link to Manhattan’s weather history since November 1st.
https://maps.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMHK/2018/11/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=28&monthend=2&yearend=2019&req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=