Nonstop Winter, Tracking 4 Systems and Arctic Blast

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Good Tuesday bloggers,

The active winter weather continues as we are now tracking 4 systems and an Arctic blast. Since the new pattern began it has been quite active. When you look at the total rainfall (includes melted ice/snow) since October 5th we are around 10″ above average.

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Let’s go through this next round of active weather.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Thick, lower clouds, will be increasing as moisture increases from the south. A front will be stalled to our south as well. This is the same front from Monday that has been wavering back and forth. It looks like the KC area will stay in the colder air with highs reaching the 40s just south.

1

TUESDAY NIGHT: A weak system (#1) will move by and there is a chance of freezing drizzle. As is, based on the new data, there is not enough freezing drizzle (red patches) to cause icing. Now, that being said, it does not take much to cause problems. If we see .01″ of freezing drizzle, then we have problems. So, we will watch this closely. Temperatures will be dropping through the 20s.

2

WEDNESDAY: This will be a cold and dry day with some sun as a cold blast occurs. Highs will only be in the 20s. The only way we have slick spots Wednesday morning is if we see enough freezing drizzle tonight. We are not expecting that at this time.

3

THURSDAY: The second system we are tracking will affect mostly southern Missouri with a mix. Our region is on the northern fringe of the precipitation, so we have a 20% chance of seeing measurable precipitation. Highs Thursday will be in the 20s.

4

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: The third system we are tracking is for mainly Friday night along an Arctic blast. This will have a chance to bring a few inches of snow. It depends on how much an upper level disturbance can hold together. Highs Friday will sneak into the 30s ahead of the Arctic air. It will be dry and frigid Saturday with highs in the teens and wind chill values below zero.

5

SUNDAY: The fourth system will be moving across the Plains with the Arctic air in place. This system has a chance to bring a few inches of snow as well. After this system, there will be a reinforcing shot of Arctic air. Lows Sunday and Monday will be close to zero. My goodness!

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Have a great rest of your week and stay warm. Spring is 22 days away!

Jeff Penner

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Garyf00dl3J. R.WeatherfreakerEastOfEden Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
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f00dl3

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Just need it to be a bit stronger and further north

J. R.
Guest
J. R.

Roads are BAD. Many, many accidents. I have an Outback, so made it to work fine. Sidewalks are slippery as well. I live about 40 miles east of downtown and work downtown. ALL roads were bad, all of the way in.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Gary’s forecast above says from last night that they were not expecting enough drizzle to have even slick spots. But people are saying this morning it was their worst drive into work so far this winter. Hmmm.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Liberty schools are closed, black ice

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Park Hill as well. Checked online, seems like the entire city is out. I just stepped outside and can confirm that driveways at least are very slippery

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

Had some drizzle earlier in Leavenworth. It has quit and sidewalks and driveways are starting to dry up

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

bit of ice in Parkville also

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Think Buchanan county needs added to winter weather advisory, been freezing drizzle off and on since 6:30 and glaze on all exposed surfaces without treatment. Sidewalks and porch gravel driveway and parking lots extremely slick in and around St Joseph

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

are the roads okay still? I think that is probably what determines a WWA…traveling conditions on the roads

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

i am declaring march free from heat mizer snow mizer eand freeze miser and for big daddy poof no more snow and warm weather in march

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol..that doesn’t work when snow is forecast for the first few days of March

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Ain’t happening. Have you seen the forecast for this weekend?

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Any updates in ice tonight?

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

It is lightly misting up here in Leavenworth. Very light, but with ice a little can be enough. Not sure if the metro sees much out of it.

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

Its quit now and drying up

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Here comes the blizzard!

comment image

Yes I know this is sarcasm and will probably change 🙂

Elaine Watson
Guest
Elaine Watson

My storm shield is not showing any alerts for the metro area?

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

The Winter Weather Advisory is only for the southern half of the KC metro. Here’s a link:

https://www.weather.gov/eax/

Elaine Watson
Guest
Elaine Watson

Ahhh…thanks for explaining

Zcfloyd
Guest
Zcfloyd

Does anyone track winter advisories and how many we have had compared to prior winters? Seems like a ton.

Johndoe
Guest
Johndoe

Anyone have links to what the models are showing?

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

WWA for metro area from 9pm tonight until 6am Wednesday

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Let me guess……………..all the schools will close tonight.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

So what if they do?

Joe
Guest
Joe

😱

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

check out gary’s new tweet. WARNING: anybody who does not like snow don’t read it

BSMike
Guest
BSMike

post it???

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

“Here we go again! The #LRC strongly predicts this storm will happen this weekend. There are still some questions on strength and track, and since it will be FRIGID, it will more likely be a fluffy snow. We will go over the details on @41actionnews tonight!”

https://twitter.com/glezak

Clint
Guest
Clint
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Food for thought – the 18z NAM gives us more moisture tonight than the GFS gives us on Sunday.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Farmer’s almanac baby!

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Not sure how reliable accuweather is lol bit they are saying a high risk of a greater severe weather this season and a higher risk of spring flooding due to soil saturation already.

Grambo624
Guest
John
Guest
John

Looked at the map and the high risk area is just west of Kansas City.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

That map is arbitrary and utterly worthless other than a halfwayblind stab at what it may look like. We are in for a bad season im afraid

Matt
Guest
Matt

I second it.

A1hoops
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A1hoops

With how storms systems are developing and eject out the central plains are in for a big severe outbreak and flooding season

Matt
Guest
Matt

Yes

Roger
Guest
Roger

Maybe Wichita can catch some more snow. Only 7.4 inches has fallen. Normal for now is 12.2 inches. It sucks, because there have been extended periods of temperatures in the teens, 20’s, and 30’s, but never with any snow on the ground to brighten things up!!!!

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Here we go again! The #LRC strongly predicts this storm will happen this weekend. There are still some questions on strength and track, and since it will be FRIGID, it will more likely be a fluffy snow. We will go over the details on @41actionnews tonight! pic.twitter.com/xKP9VShyvU

— Gary Lezak (@glezak) February 26, 2019

Logan
Guest
Logan

GFS, GFS-FV3, and Canadian all showing a pretty significant system for Saturday night through Monday morning… If it verifies, central/west central Kansas is going to get dumped on yet again. Pretty interesting
GFS:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019022612&fh=138&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=
FV3:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_acc&rh=2019022612&fh=138&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=
Canadian:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019022612&fh=138&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

This will be interesting to follow (again!). This winter has been nuts!

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Can we get severe weather season already over this cold and snow

Matt
Guest
Matt

You mean started.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

What’s funny is it doesn’t even look anything like the blizzard. Looks more like your typical clipper riding on a Arctic front. Not sure how this is the blizzard with the setup. Looks more like that earliest snowfall on record how it rode the front in back in October.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

That’s what I’m thinking. Those two February snows on the 15th and 19th-20th? Straight counting would have predicted the 13th and 18th. I think the cycle’s been shifted two days or something. I’m definitely looking more toward Sunday now.

Edit: Another thought I just had. Temperature forecast “stepping up” each day for the next three days, then a precipitous drop on Saturday, then a storm on Sunday? That sounds like the signature of the storm to me.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Just need it to shift north, and AO+ is friendly to that…snowfall ratios will be high already, as it’ll probably be the coldest snowfall of the season (other than the dusting on January 30)… (sorry, I’m really turning this into a place where I just throw all of my thoughts now, oops)

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Well no the entire scenario does not fit. I mean when we had the blizzard the temperatures were marginal for snow at the beginning – both the past 2 times through the storm struggled initially to get temperatures cold enough to produce snow. I remember well because there were times during each storm I was like how on earth are we going to get several inches if it’s not sticking/accumulating?

For the energy to hit when it’s well below freezing just is not the storm.

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

I remember your comments during that storm. You weren’t sure we would get the accumulations based on the temperatures. Does this storm not fit with that part of the pattern or are we off? I remember that storm trending North for several days then we were added to the blizzard warning the day before.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

In November it zigzagged north and south repeatedly, taking the emotions of the bloggers with it each time. I don’t remember about January.

Clint
Guest
Clint

I may be crazy but I thought the blizzard part of the pattern was last week, and it would make since that it would miss us to the north being late Feb and having no blocking. This would make this weekends set up make much more since.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I wish, but nope! LRC doesn’t randomly skip a week!

come on summer
Guest
come on summer

some one want to give us a spring forecast? cheer some of us up

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

We need it to warm up now. The Robins are already arriving and they are hungry from their long journey. I’ve been putting out extra food during the cold and bitter cold temps to help our feathered friends get through this winter. I don’t know about anyone else, but this winter has cooked me with the temperatures and cloudy sky.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Think I have gone through 5 – 50 pound bags of seed so far this year. Have tons of cardinals, etc… I live in the country and even had a covey of quail around the feeders a couple times.

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

I’m going through 50 pounds of seed every 5 days. Kinda putting a dent in the ol’farm wallet. I don’t mind though as feeding the wild birds is really the only highlight of winter to me.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I feel as though I’m living out a real life ground hog day. We currently are sitting at 5 degrees with light snow falling as we close in on 70 in for the yr! Alot of winter yet to go up here unfortunately. I was called out once again in the middle of the night for weather related service interruption. Current snow depth…..hell if I know anymore. Long range forecast, cold and white! Enjoy whatcha got KC! Spring, get it in gear!!!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Looking at models…it seems to me more and more like the March 1 storm is model noise and it’s the 3rd where the cycle really repeats.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

12z NAM doesn’t even have a storm at all for us for Friday – it has high pressure over us! March 3 is the cycle…

craig
Guest
craig

That’s a good point. February only has 28 days so the appropriate LRC date for a return of the Thanksgiving storm should be March 3 or March 4, not March1.

Jason (Lawrence)
Guest
Jason (Lawrence)

As I have said before, I like winter. However, MOVE ON WINTER, WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH. I’d prefer a couple big snows with a quick warm up and melting. Needs to warm up before my Purple Martins start arriving in early April.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

I’m ready for a warm up but if it’s going to be cold I would prefer snow.

Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

YES ^^

BSMike
Guest
BSMike

I have 10 years till I retire, moving back home to Texas so I can fish and enjoy life. This weather up here is depressing, yes I love snow but if it’s not snowing like most of the time this cold gets old!!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Well, we haven’t had much snow the last four years, so 1/5 snowy winters ain’t bad if you aren’t a snow fan.

Josh
Guest
Josh

Exactly, the last 4 winters have spoiled us. This winter, we got extra snow and extra cold, just like everyone was saying and now everyone gets upset lol.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Many Different solutions on models until Friday of what will happen weekend with snow and I hope we get a good one.

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

As an older person almost 60. Even in those bitter cold winters from the late 60s through the early 1980s (not every single one was bitter cold) they were all so much worse and Lsawyer. Also, I was not as tall so maybe it appeared to be more snow. They had periodic warm spells. The duration of the cold from November on has been something that is highly unusual as has been stated below. I would have expected a standard January 4 sometime and I guess we got it for one or two days when the temperature got into the… Read more »

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Currently the Euro and the Canadian model have pretty good snows for KC over the weekend (5-7 inches around KC). The GFS and FV3 both show most of the storm getting pushed to the south of here (similar to what I predicted would happen yesterday) (1-3 inches for KC). The ICON doesn’t have anything over the weekend. I’m hoping the Euro and Canadian are right even if it means my prediction was wrong.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

I guess that’s where I get confused. Wouldn’t a positive AO keep the storm from going too far south like what happened with the last storm? The reason it went north was supposedly the positive AO..

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Yeah. I don’t think there’s a perfect answer. Weather can always mess with conventional wisdom. And again, I’m not an expert. But … even when there’s a positive AO, you can still have cold high pressures move down from Canada and cause storms to weaken and get pushed south. It’s just less likely. But that’s what may happen on Sunday. As I posted yesterday, there’s a guy over on another forum who completely disagrees with the idea that the current positive AO will prevent strong storms from having cold air. He’s predicting a very cold couple of weeks and snow… Read more »

Ross (N. Overland Park)
Guest
Ross (N. Overland Park)
someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Maybe …

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

The official roll out of the FV3 to replace the GFS has been postponed due to poor performance on a couple of key winter metrics. It will still be available to look at, but it won’t officially replace the GFS yet.
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf

North Topeka
Guest
North Topeka

Skimming this over it’s like DUH [face palm], it was showing excessive snowfall values. Good Lord the 60″ of snow it was predicting in 10 day time-frame earlier this month was INSANITY. Time to adjust the formula for sure.

“Techniques that use either of these variables for deriving snowfall will exhibit excessive snowfall values”

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It predicted 18″ of snow in KC on October 14. I’d say that’s “excessive” lol

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

No surprise there, FV3 has definitely been wetter and snowier than reality.

BSMike
Guest
BSMike

THE GFS SUCKS TOO, whats the difference?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Meteorological Spring is just a few days away…..

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Real spring is 3 1/2 weeks away

Choppy
Guest
Choppy

There he is. ALWAYS has to let everybody know

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

If history is an indicator of what’s to come, look for the models to come into agreement on a more robust and organized system this weekend. In previous cycles, the models were not consistent with this system.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Jeff
Thanks for filling in for Gary. You did not point this out in your write up, the humble man that you are, but Gary pointed it out on weekend that he was filling in for you. So thank you for the great write up. Your maps and day by day timeline appreciated.
I am off to Paola tonight to get my brother to KU Med for surgery tomorrow. Looks like roads will be fine after all !! 👍

Joe
Guest
Joe

odd observation Richard

Elaine Watson. McLouth
Guest
Elaine Watson. McLouth

At the end it says: Jeff Penner.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

First two systems looks like nothings Second two sound good!

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Cold winter = hot summer? I’ve heard that, things tend to balance out. But perhaps a persistent el nino will temper the heat wave(s) this summer.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Compare to summers of 1992 and 1993.

Troy
Guest
Troy

I think this does look more like the summer of 1993 due the persistent storms. Soil moisture is in the 95+ percentile over much of the Plains and Midwest. It is true however that some cold winters we had in the 1980s were followed by very hot summers. In general we have had warmer Feb and cooler Aug over the last decade but that isn’t holding true for Feb this year.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

February and August are actually the only months that are cooler in the 2010-2018 period than in the 1981-2010 period. February is 1 degree cooler on average and August is 0.3 cooler.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’ve started to wonder…maybe the March 3 storm that the Canadian shows is the actual cycle storm? The two events in mid February happened later than expected too (15th and 19th-20th rather than 13th and 18th).

Justin
Guest
Justin

Welcome to the beginning of the next ice age.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

#GrandSolarMinimum. For me the jury’s out on this want to see the next two years vs. the virtually apocalyptic predictions out there…………..

Troy
Guest
Troy

I don’t believe we are going to have an ice age. That said I do believe this would be way worse than warming. You can’t grow food when its cold. I have read where during the little ice age some parts of the US had frost all 12 months. That would not be good.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

“Year Without A Summer” 1816

Robyn
Guest
Robyn

I hadn’t heard of the Year Without a Summer before, EastofEden, so I just googled it. It sounds like it was attributable to a volcano eruption in 1815 in Indonesia? Interesting stuff, but man that would be strange.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

If you go to the Wikipedia page on that event and read some of the “Comparable events” near the bottom of the page, some of them are downright scary. Would hate to see what would happen if we got something similar to the Toba Catastrophe.

Robyn
Guest
Robyn

my use of the adjective “strange” was an understatement!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Even the absolute worst case theorists concede this will “only” last about 30 years BUT crop failure is definitely the big ticket issue. One thing that, again, none of us can control is the possibility (at any time) of a major volcanic eruption. THAT would be disastrous in a colder phase like this. Prayers that doesn’t happen.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Yesterday the NWS shared the “fun” statistic that since November 1st we have not risen above 65 degrees, something that’s never happened before. The average is about 9 times during that period. I feel like we should have a contest of guessing the date and time we reach 70 degrees for the first time this year.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

May 25

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

lol. We’ve never even had an April that did not reach 70.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

It was meant as pure satire…………..:)

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

I like that idea Skylar!

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

the GFS-FV3 is saying between 2 and 9 in some locations

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Not sure where you are seeing this.
comment image

Only shows a dusting to 1/2″ for us.

Steve A
Guest
Steve A

Foo,
Is this from today through monday i take it? Thats not much precip!!

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

f00dl3, he is looking at the new GFS-FV3 model (sarcasm)… 😀

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

The storm this weekend, isn’t this the one that gave southern parts of the metro almost a foot of snow? Is it just a weaker version?

Kadens Mom
Guest
Kadens Mom

What map are you looking at?

SnowGoPewPew
Guest
SnowGoPewPew

Based on the LRC, do we see a situation in the long term where it is hot and dry? Judging by this pattern it doesn’t seem that will be the case. Spring weather could get interesting I think even more so than Winter. We could see some fun thunderstorms.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

This is one year that no one will be arguing that meteorological Spring begins on March 1!

Josh
Guest
Josh

Amen to that!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Last year something never seen before happened on APRIL 1. Then it snowed the 8th and 15th. Snowed May 2 2013. Major killing frosts/freezes occurred May 17-18 2014. Lord knows what this “spring” holds in store. If that huge snowpack doesn’t melt up north we may see frosts up to and past Memorial Day. Remember the other events were “unthinkable” not that long ago.

39th&Blue
Guest
39th&Blue

Preach, girl, preach.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It can happen. KC had a low of 35 on May 29, 1947 while heavy snow fell in Iowa.

Frank
Guest
Frank

Thanks for the write-up Gary and Jeff both.

Bentley
Guest

3rd. Thanks, Jeff! You guys are so good at what you do!

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

Thanks for the write-up, Jeff.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Thank You for the write up Jeff lol

Gary
Guest
Gary

No problem

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Jeff