Another Dramatic Weather Week Is Ahead Of Us

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Good morning bloggers,

We begin the day with a very complex weather pattern producing a unique set up across the Northern Hemisphere. There is a split in the jet stream north of Hawaii and south of the Aleutian Islands. The northern stream then bends around an upper level high over southern Alaska, and the southern stream dives south to near Hawaii and then across the southwestern United States:

1

There is a wave in the northern branch that is an important factor today.  And, the big upper high and ridge over the Gulf of Alaska is creating the conditions for a continued maintenance of the Arctic air mass, with the true Arctic Air mass being held to the north in response to an AO+ (Arctic Oscillation).  Even though the coldest air is far to the north, a United States born very cold air mass has formed in the wake of the weekend snowstorm and blizzard, and it has dropped into areas just north of Kansas City this morning.  The interaction of the northern and southern branches of the jet streams is creating some weather forecast problems. That strong wave in the northern branch is just the first in a series of such waves. Each time one of these tracks just north of the United States, a cold surge will push south, and then it will relax, and warmer air will try to force its way back in. On Wednesday, the next wave will track across southern Canada with another cold surge. And, then the southern branch is likely going to produce a weak disturbance that will increase the chance of light precipitation.

Today at 4 PM:

1

Forecasting just today’s high temperature is quite difficult, as you can see above. A front is going to be nearly stationary and lifting very slowly north. A stationary front is defined to move slower than around 10 mph, and this front will just be drifting around.  On Tuesday, it is still forecast to be nearly stationary.

2

Then by Tuesday night, there will be a weak wave in the southern branch of the jet stream racing across and there is likely going to be a little band of precipitation with light freezing rain possible. This needs to be watched closely as temperatures will likely be in the 20s north of that front.

3

The front will then become a cold front and push south on Wednesday.  We will then look ahead to later in the week. We are moving into cycle 4 of this years LRC and it begins with the part of the pattern that has produced wet storm systems in the first three cycles from 10″ of rain, to the blizzard in late November, to the snowstorm on January 12th. This time, however, there is a stronger influence from an AO+. Take a look at the latest index:

Screen Shot 2019-02-25 at 6.07.27 AM

I am convinced that Kansas City would have had a much better chance of being even closer to the weekend snowstorm if the Arctic Oscillation were not so positive right now, and this is likely having an influence on the beginning of cycle 4:

2

This wave is directly related to the first three cycles, and right on schedule.  In the other three cycles, four days out, the tracks were all predicted to be north and weak, and then they strengthened and produced. The models were absolutely wrong in each previous cycle at this point. The difference this time may very well be the higher AO+.  A bit farther south and it will snow significantly on Friday evening:

3

Slightly farther north, then you can lift that Friday evening snow into Omaha and Des Moines, leaving KC with flurries and a cold blast.  And, slightly farther south or southwest on that wave, and a few inches of snow would be likely.  Either way, the storm is right on schedule. Let’s see how the models trend today.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Have a great start to the week.

Gary

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f00dl3EastOfEdenGrambo624Blue FlashJason Recent comment authors
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f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Man 06z GFS, Canadian, NAM are like poof with everything. Even the Canadian backed from 5″ to 2″ for KC. Icon has flurries at best for our Blizzard.

I know we are not supposed to get modelitus but dang…. that trend…. not good.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Didn’t this happen in November too?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

On one or two models but not all models. Canadian actually held strong on it’s guns in November it was picking the LRC up very well.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Thought I’d mention this. Lincoln, NE is 1.6″ away from its snowiest winter on record.

Of course, it probably got more in 1911-1912 like the rest of the region, but I guess NOWData doesn’t include that.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Also. The GFS has the bane of snow lovers everywhere…a SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN event…on March 7. I’d rather have just rain. Ugh.

FV3 fantasyland eye candy a bit later though:comment image

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

What gets me is the models that do show us getting snow from the blizzard just show us getting a nuisance event – nothing substantial. 1/2″ from the ICON for example, CMC which is not really reliable has us getting 3-4″. You can’t really blame the AO/NAO/PNA/ENSO for that – that’s just a weaker storm pushing through not going negative tilt and not pulling moisture up due to the lack of strength in the storm’s rotation.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

I blame obama

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Why is this comment the one that gets upvoted? lol.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Because this is Kansas and vast majority are Republicans. Or it was a haha joke.

John
Guest
John

Likely true. We know we can’t blame Trump. Trump’s tiny brain can’t comprehend even the most basic of ideas, let alone something complex like weather.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

-5000

Jason
Guest
Jason

Like Science

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)
Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

So any confidence yet on frz precip early Wed morn ? I posted earlier. Hoping it doesn’t get slick/
Brother in Paola is having surgery early Wed morn 7 am at KU. He has to be there at 5:30, leaving at 4:30. I am staying with him Tues night, then taking him. Don’t want to be navigating slick roads on the way ! Then taking him home on Thursday. What is it with these storms on WEDNESDAYS !? Looks like a 4 am drive might be in order.

KC BBQ
Guest
KC BBQ

Yes- this. Great question. Is it just me or is Wednesday / Thursday precipitation only showing up on the Canadian? How accurate has the Canadian been this season?

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Wednesday precipitation is also on the NAM, and this season has been better for the Canadian than most seasons.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Agreed Alex. Not as much of late but it has def been better at times

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I believe the Canadian did a good job of picking up the November 25 storm.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

The Canadian shows us at -12 degrees on March 7!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’ve definitely also noticed that storms seem to like Wednesdays (or Tuesday nights, affecting mostly Wednesdays) this year.

Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

I’m a teacher and 3 of our 5 Snow Day’s have been on Wednesday.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Guess we have to wait until the 10 pm news tomorrow night to know if we need to head out earlier
Would like some decent shut-eye though !
Maybe 6 pm news on kshb

KC BBQ
Guest
KC BBQ

Looks like the GFS and FV3 has it but south of KC. So with that can we count on a vague something?

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Clinton Lake US Army Corps of Engineers said
“Due to the continued moisture we have been receiving in the form of rain, freezing rain, and snow, we have increased the release rate at Clinton Lake. We are now releasing 750 cfs from the outlet channel. This should get us back to our target elevation in approximately 10 days.”

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

That is about 100 times the usual outflow from Clinton, and that will keep the water level near normal. I don’t understand the increased outflow from Milford, nor the restricted outflow from Tuttle Creek.
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/nwk/lakepool.txt

IsItSpringYet
Guest

perfect for fishing

Roger
Guest
Roger

Great Bend has now dropped to 23 degrees at 3:00 P.M. Pratt is 59 degrees.

These cities are separated by 50 miles!!!

FDRLincoln
Guest
FDRLincoln

Gary, I know you have mentioned that you expect a more active severe weather season with this LRC but I was wondering if you could get more specific. My own very amateur view is that we are seeing much more frequent negative-tilt systems with this LRC and that the most dynamic parts of the systems tend to be closer to KC than in recent years. This seems likely to result in a much more active spring and eastern KS and western MO might actually be “in the alley” this year, so to speak.

What do you think?

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

The modelitis on this blog is amazing.

Pick the latest model that shows the most snow and buy it. Then change to the next one.

Friday will be a nothing burger.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Bupkis

Paul
Guest
Paul

Who pissed in your cornflakes

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Friday’s storm is “the big one” of this pattern. It’s the center, the marker of everything, the 0,0 point. There will be something. I’m not saying it will be a big snowstorm, but to declare a poof already is a little ridiculous. Remember that back in November, the storm continued intensifying on models right up until the day of, and January wasn’t extremely different.

Jeffg
Guest

Friday’s setup will be interesting since it produced in the 1st 3 cycles. I have had March 1st circled as the next big storm, but maybe the positive AO may allow it to go north. The cold will be in place. Before the blizzard on the Nov. 25th we had 50+ degree temps and the blizzard the next day. It’s hard to be patient when each time the models were not able to handle this storm correctly.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Yep. Same collection of people too

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

You might have had a point until you predicted we get nothing. You don’t know any more about what will happen than anyone else.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Good afternoon, Gary! Where can the LRC get better in this situation? There is still a storm showing up, and you have been saying that you favor a southern solution, but with AO being so positive the storm may stay north. The LRC was unable to predict this, so how do we improve?

Jack in Atch

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

NAM should be in range of this storm by about this time tomorrow.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Russell, KS: 15 degrees
Great Bend, KS: 45 degrees

These cities are only separated by 37.03 miles!!!! Amazing!!!!

North Topeka
Guest
North Topeka

I thought I would follow the “AO/NAO For Dummies” research method, since my knowledge of Atmospheric Sciences is limited at best. Anyway this page from NC Climate Office seems to be a good cliff notes version:
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao

What’s interesting is looking at the annual charts for the AO:comment image
NAO:comment image

It’s interesting how much of an outlier or negative dip 1993 is compared to the precending 4-5 years. Conversely 2018 was so high or positive it really sticks out.

I’m not implying correlation or causation to flooding/drought, but it’s something to consider.

Fred
Guest
Fred

So the AO+ will be the excuse?

It’s the same but different, which I totally get right now. Seasonal influences and a lack of blocking.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Canadian model (not Euro) picking up on a big snowstorm for the weekend. Gary had mentioned before that this is a possibility. Something to keep an eye on. It would fit the LRC.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019022512&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_c&p=snku_acc&m=gdps

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

it would be something to keep an eye on

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Edit: Original comment/post fixed.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

My bad, I meant the Canadian model but then started looking at the Euro and had that on my brain. It’s definitely a Monday. Thanks for keeping me honest.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Do you mean the following weekend? Looks like this weekend on that model there isn’t much here and it’s way north.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Snow definitely possible this weekend

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

Can someone help me to understand AO+ more? Thank you for the help.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

When people refer to the AO, they’re usually talking about whether it is positive or negative. A positive AO means that winds and pressures at high latitudes are keeping the jet stream north and stable, and thus keeping the cold air north. When the AO is positive, the jet stream looks like a ring around the northern part of the globe. When the AO goes negative, the winds and pressures cause the northern jet stream to become wavy and some of those waves plunge south, which allows cold air to follow the waves in the jet stream south. Instead of… Read more »

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

That’s a better explanation than saying it’s the AO causing a north trend. The key is why and that helps. Thanks!!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Why would anyone give negative marks for thanking someone for posting a good explanation? Good grief. I don’t care. I actually think its comical.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

The biggest impact on our March weather is going to be the DEEP snowpack up north. Unless we get consistent southerly flow this cold will continue. And I am not even going to mention the possibility of another Polar Vortex………….

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Canadian says 2″ of sleet WED evening/THU AM. :S
comment image

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

The 1″ snow depth right now seems generous comment image

KC BBQ
Guest
KC BBQ

How reliable do you think this is F00di3?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Heh not really reliable but thought it interesting.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Ugh

FARMERMIKE
Guest
FARMERMIKE

THIS IS GOING FROM ONE EXTREME TO THE OTHER from KNCK News: Record Snowfall Hits Concordia Saturday; Now Over 25 Inches Above Annual Average for Snowfall Local Monday, Feb 25 Another record snowfall for date impacted the North Central Kansas area on Saturday, February 23rd. The National Weather Service Office in Topeka reports 8.6-inches of snow fell in Concordia over the weekend, breaking the previous snowfall record of 7.1-inches set on February 23, 1960. The City of Concordia has received 14.6-inches of snow this month, which is 10.2-inches above the normal average for February. Since January 1st, Concordia has recorded… Read more »

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary what will it take for how far does a low have to dig? In what is your thinking what may happen? It looks like it’s did like it was the last 3 it did.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

My (very amateur) prediction is that KC won’t get any more significant (2 inches or greater) snows this year. The AO is too far into positive territory to allow any strong storms to have enough cold air this far south. Those storms that do have enough cold air this far south will be too weak to produce much east of the Rockies. They’ll get “squashed” by the strong high pressures that do bring cold air. Had the AO been neutral to negative for the last couple of weeks, and for the next couple of weeks, KC might have had one… Read more »

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

BTW, here’s someone from a national forum/blog who completely disagrees with me. And frankly, he knows a lot more than I do. So we’ll see… Copy/paste: I’d like to chime in on some LR thoughts on storm potential(s) through the first couple weeks this month as an incredibly strong jet stream for the time of year continues to rage. The jury is still out there if the weekend storm becomes a formidable storm or not but trends in the EPS are suggesting a minimal impacting system across the MW/GL’s, while the GEFS still continue to show something of interest. Following… Read more »

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Large temp contrast in eastern Kansas today. Expected hIghs around 20 at the northern border with mid 50s at the southern border.

Patti
Guest
Patti

I’m really fatigued by the cold weather. I want warmth and sunshine and no more snow! The mere suggestion of another impacting storm makes me cranky. Anybody with me?

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

the frequency would make people feel this way. We havent had a real doozy i dont think since the january system that brought more like 7-9 inches with minor locations seeing drier 4 inch totals. We’ve had 3-4 2-4 inch clippers, since then and as Gary said it was going to feel like “alot” of snow by the end of the season even if it was only 15 inches.

DesertQueen
Guest
DesertQueen

Very much in the same boat. I am over the wet, cold, snow, grey, wind.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Spring only four days away….

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Craziness. Did the snow make this winter go by fast for anyone else? November 26th FEELS LIKE YESTERDAY!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It does feel fast.

DesertQueen
Guest
DesertQueen

Nope.

John
Guest
John

To me this has felt like the longest winter ever, but maybe that is because I work outside. Makes conditions much more difficult when it is constantly cold and snowy. I’m over it and ready for spring now.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Most def agree!!!!!!!!

Farmgirl
Guest
Farmgirl

I agree. This has been a long and hard winter. Ready for some moderate temps. I’d like a drier second half of the month as it is soooo muddy.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Gary out of pure curiosity, at what point does AO have more weight than NAO, and vice versa?

Troy
Guest
Troy

The cold up here is amazing for this time of year. Not a single day in the 10 day with even a 30 degree high. I looked back and 1960 was the one and only year that was this cold at this time of year. That year the next 10 days the average temp was 9.5 and if the 10 day is correct we will average 10 F.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’d love a repeat of March 1960 this month. I doubt it will happen, though. And certainly nothing 1912-level.

Historically, we’re in the time of year where KC’s biggest snowstorms have happened right now. So we’ll see what happens.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Gary, much like KC, out here west of Salina we received a lot of precipitation from the early October event, but we had a tropical storm that moved in and there was a strong easterly flow along the gulf coast states during that time (not sure what it meant but there was that African dust in the south). Do you see anything for the central and west part of the state with this weekends system?

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

If Friday is going to be a non-event for snow I feel like we are running out of time for an impact snow event. It will be especially frustrating knowing the cold air is in place.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I look forward to the day that we can predict a snowstorm or no storm instead of, “It many snow a lot or not at all”. That gets a little old after a while.

BSMike
Guest
BSMike

I don’t get why you say complex Gary, when you already know whats going to happen supposedly!!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

CMC still has the same series of snow events – March 1, 3, 5. Weird.

Justin
Guest
Justin

Hopefully all this is just a memory by opening day at the K. I’m planning on going but may wait until it gets closer.

Weatherjaded
Guest
Weatherjaded

So it may go north because of the AO+ or it may go South in spite of it? Sounds very ambiguous.

Jeffg
Guest

Darn it, I was hoping for one last big snowstorm Friday. The Arctic can keep the cold.

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Outdoor soccer season starts March 1st. I’d be happy if we were completely missed this time around. But if we see any snow, then it better be worth it. Like they say go big or go home.

Bentley
Guest

Agreed! Either huge snow or no snow at all!!!

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

We are not going to have any frozen precipitation until Friday (continuing to try to bend the weather for my own purposes).

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

lol

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Agree !!
Brother in Paola is having surgery early Wed morn 7 am at KU. He has to be there at 5:30, leaving at 4:30. I am staying with him Tues night, then taking him. Don’t want to be navigating slick roads on the way ! Then taking him home on Thursday. What is it with these storms on WEDNESDAYS !? Looks like a 4 am drive might be in order.

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

Just so I understand, you’re saying that it probably won’t be a blizzard here again, due to the high +AO? Or are you still not sure what it will do, based on previous cycles.