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Good Sunday morning bloggers,

Well, there were some snowflakes in Kansas City yesterday, but the official station at KCI apparently didn’t report any, so we will be stuck at 37 dates with snow this season so far.  Will there be snow later this week?  The part of the pattern that produced the blizzard in November, and major snowfall in January will be cycling back through later this week into next weekend.  And, some of the models have trended into a look in the pattern that is rather similar to the set ups in those last two cycles.  In fact, we are going back to the beginning of this year’s LRC in October when the drought busting rains arrived.  Let’s take a look.

Let’s start with some numbers at KCI Airport:

  • Precipitation since and including October 6th:  19.31″ which is 9.94″ over the average of October – February average of 9.37″
  • The temperature has been 1.9 degrees below average during October -February so far (-.9° in Oct, -8.0° in Nov, +3.3° in Dec, -0.7° in Jan, and -4.2° so far in February)

We are currently on the back side of this storm that produced snow just northwest and north of our local area.  Kansas City just barely missed this one, but did we really miss it? We had rain, thunderstorms with hail, and wind from this current storm, and now we have a soaked ground that is refreezing this morning, so watch out for slick spots.

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This is a forecast map from the Canadian model which shows an aggressive look to Wednesday nights system.  This shows freezing rain or sleet in our area as a fast moving system zips by Wednesday into Thursday.  And, then the return of the “blizzard part of the cycling pattern” arrives around Friday.  The GFS seems to have the best solution that fits the previous three cycles.  Six days out from the storm in the past two cycles, if you remember, the models showed sunny and nice. The forecast for the Chiefs game from ALL other sources was for it to be great for the Chiefs-Indianapolis game with highs near 50 and Sunny. While, if you watched my forecasts on 41 Action News, I said every night from two weeks before to five days before that a storm was targeting that day, January 12th.  And, then when we got within around 4 days, the computer models finally started narrowing in on the right forecast. All other sources that had sunny and beautiful suddenly changed their forecast to snow and cold.  And, we know what happened that day, as there was nearly 1 foot of snow on the south side of the city.  In this fourth LRC cycle, the AO is currently positive and there is an influence from this and other forcing mechanisms.  Will the end of the week storm become more organized, or will it zip by with a strong cold front and just a little bit of snow?  This is something my confidence level is still shaky on, and at the same time, the GFS model came out with a solution that if it is a bit stronger and deeper, we would get a four for four on this part of the pattern on producing a significant storm.  I am 75% in favor of this solution or stronger, and at the same time if it zips by and is weaker, it would still be 3 out of 4 leading into the next cycle.  Again, I favor the 4-4 scenario at the moment.  And, here is that GFS model that is the most aggressive model at the moment. The European Model came close last night, and developed this system a bit farther east, but it trended in the more aggressive solution.

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This is the prediction for March 1st, or Friday.  Let’s see how the models trend.  Have a great Sunday.

Gary

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Three7s
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Three7s

GFS is having the same issue with this storm as it did in cycle 2. It isn’t digging the storm properly and has it coming in positively tilted. We all know how that turned out. Does that mean it could change this time around? Sure, but you can’t tell me GFS isn’t bias.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

What if the we don’t get any precipitation this weekend? That will sure change my thoughts on Spring. I mean why not though? The first LRC cycle was cold and wet/snowy. The 2nd cycle was warm and wet/snowy. The 3rd cycle was cold and wet/snowy. What if the 4th cycle is warm or near average and the blizzard blows past us without doing anything at all? Doesn’t make or break the LRC, just means it’s the same but different. If these storms start blowing through dry, we may not have as much flooding this spring as winter has led us… Read more »

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

The FV3-GFS does not show much of anything for the week. It will be interesting to see what shows up as the week goes along. I am wondering if people are getting worn out of winter. The blog has been rather quiet this evening. I am with Snow and Heat Miser on wanting one more good snow for the winter season. 8″ to 10″ would be awesome!

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Guess we are in a good spot then, before the blizzard happened there wasn’t much on the models til the event got closer.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Yesterday’s radar led me to believe a lot of rain fell east of here, but this zone 25 miles north of Manhattan got far more.
We had heavy rain before it changed to snow, and our rain gauge had 0.7″ of liquid after the frozen stuff (~2″ of snow) melted.
Belleville’s snow report on Cocorahs was by far the largest. Our 2″ of snow resulted in 2′ drifts in our driveway, so the drifts northwest of here must be incredibly deep.
https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/StateDailyPrecipReports.aspx?state=KS

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

We already have clouds streaming in. The upper level moisture this year is heavy. This week in Spring or Summer could be 5 days straight of rain, a 2 day break, and heavy rain SAT/SUN w/ blizzard part of pattern.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

f00dl3, Do you think we see another metro wide impact snow event before the season is over?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Snow Wednesday night?

Justin
Guest
Justin

So we can expect the aforementioned storm sometime around the middle of April? That could be interesting.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

April 20. Possibly a big rainstorm, or maybe severe weather. I suppose it’s possible it could return as snow, but I think most would agree that that is pretty unlikely.

Justin
Guest
Justin

It would not surprise me if the backside of the storm produced snow somewhere.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Maybe something like yesterday, actually. Some rain and thunder for most of the day and then a tiny bit of snow at the end.

Jen
Guest
Jen

does anyone know if it’s suppose to be snowy on March 10, we are going to Wichita

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I continue to add photos to our FB group as I continue to see just unbelievable pics around town. The winds continue to gust 40 to 50 making clearing the snow a real challenge. I just looked at the models and can’t believe they look to target this area again! The wx enthusiast in me is blown away but this has got to stop. The hrs put in at work and at home are beginning to take a toll.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I know you are SE of the twin cities. Are they lagging behind your location a decent amount for snow? Seems like they might be. I mean just in comparison to your location not compared to other areas of central U.S.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I am only about 90 miles se of the cities but on avg they receive about 10 in a yr more than we do but you are correct we have had more than the cities to date by about 12 inches but they are most likely slightly above yrly avg now after this crazy Feb. For both locations, Nov was snowy, dec and Jan well below and then the blockbuster Feb(40+).

Bluetooth
Guest
Bluetooth

Stl, for you, this is so very far from over. The grand solar minimum is just getting warmed up. Several more storms to go. Maybe late April or May.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Moderation?

Josh
Guest
Josh

First tornado related death of 2019 in Columbus, Mississippi last night. Sad deal 🙁 Have a feeling it’s going to be an active severe weather season. That and still thinking there is going to be big issues with flooding. We can’t even hardly get in the fields to feed our cattle without using a tractor, 4X4 feed pickups are getting stuck.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

The upcoming tornado season is questionable. Last night’s “outbreak” down south was actually far less severe than predicted. The key will be any cold core upper lows. If any of those punch into the warm sector of what should be a series of spring storms then major tornado outbreaks could occur. The near dead certainty is MAJOR flooding. Whether this will eclipse 1993 will not be known until May-June. I would say a better than 50 percent chance, though, that this summer equals 1993 in most areas and may even exceed it in some others especially on the mighty Mississippi.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I want 1 more decent snowstorm, then I’m ready for a vacation and let my hot-headed brother take over for a while.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Agreed! One more good snow storm, and then I will take over. My snow desires will have been completely fulfilled! Crank one more out Brother!!!! WOOT!!!!

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

I feel like we are settling back into old times, where northern mo, Iowa, and Nebraska continue to get hit w/ snow while we get a light wintery mix

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

GFS Skew-T charts show a chance for freezing drizzle Wednesday night followed by sleet into Thursday morning (12z) then rain. NAM doesn’t go out that far yet, but here’s what the NAM freezing rain map looks like at 6pm Wednesday.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=zr_acc&rh=2019022412&fh=84&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Cmc 12z also showing wintry mix in that time period.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Please let it stop. This has felt like the longest winter of all time. I just want a few 50 or 60 degree days without the threat of ice or a major snowstorm looming.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I’m seeing cold, and below normal temps through the first week of March followed by a slow warm up. I’m so done with winter. 😜

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Be patient this is coming. What we need to get rid of this cold is one more major Arctic intrusion and that is appearing next weekend. After that we should be just fine……………..I feel extremely confident we won’t have any freak April-May snows this year.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

On another note one thing that will send me over the edge is if we flip right from winter to summer again. My favorite early spring hobby is Morel hunting. That was a total wipeout last year.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Concordia, KS is now up to 42 inches of snow. Its the snowiest on record to date. Will be hard to get the record (1960) as that year had 26″ in March and April and ended up at 60.” The more amazing thing might be how cold its been and is forecast to be. The next 10 days here don’t have a high above 27 and several lows at or below zero. Ice fishing season will last well into March here.

Freezemiser
Member
Freezemiser

No freezing precipitation until Friday. (I’m trying to will the weather to do my bidding due to an important week of events in my world!)

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Good luck freeze!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

We have lots of company coming this week at work so agree big time………………..I am not worried one bit about this mid-week deal. It won’t amount to anything.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

So is there going to be frz precip on Wed – Thurs? What time frame. Wondering about Thurs morn.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

No issues. Time for the kiddos to get back to normal school schedules from here until……………..some part of summer thanks to all the school days already taken.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I’ve never seen anything quite like this! Not sure how much snow has fallen as we are still under a blizzard warning and the winds are ridiculously strong even though my home is up in the bluffs and normally protected from the winds. I have a 6 ft privacy fence that is buried almost to the top in places. I will try and post some pics on our Facebook group in a bit for those interested. Spring has never felt so far away😪

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

What the Facebook group called? Didn’t know we had one, thanks
Michael

Guest
Guest
Guest

The name of the Facebook group is Weather 2020 Group. You need to put in a request to join.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Thanks!
Michael

Dave in independence
Guest
Dave in independence

I also just requested to join as well as I am a huge weather enthusiast. Need somewhere to go when the trolls come to ruin the party here lol

ClasyCat
Guest
ClasyCat

I would love to join, but refuse to do Facebook.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Understand completely classy! Can u open a bogus act to just be a FB 2020 member? We would love to have u!

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Also didn’t know that.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Wow! We are supposed to go to MN next weekend to see the in-laws but maybe it will snow again?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

What part Troy?

Troy
Guest
Troy

Just South of St Cloud about 20 miles.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Pretty sure they have received less than our neck of MN. Either way, safe travels. Hopefully we can get some relief or at least a break.

steelwheel67
Guest
steelwheel67

wow! Thats crazy

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Probably goin to have to break out the Jordan spreader steelwheel. U familiar with the Jordan spreader?

steelwheel67
Guest
steelwheel67

lol…..It must be deep

greenhead
Guest
greenhead

I am rather fond of the rotatory plow my self. That would be epic..

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Gary,
What would the timing be on the Snow clearing out on Saturday? My son has a pinewood derby at noon. Plus when do you think temps will get back to “Normal”? Thanks sir as always,
Michael

Jace
Guest
Jace

Second

L.B
Guest
L.B

first?