Good Sunday morning bloggers,
Well, there were some snowflakes in Kansas City yesterday, but the official station at KCI apparently didn’t report any, so we will be stuck at 37 dates with snow this season so far. Will there be snow later this week? The part of the pattern that produced the blizzard in November, and major snowfall in January will be cycling back through later this week into next weekend. And, some of the models have trended into a look in the pattern that is rather similar to the set ups in those last two cycles. In fact, we are going back to the beginning of this year’s LRC in October when the drought busting rains arrived. Let’s take a look.
Let’s start with some numbers at KCI Airport:
- Precipitation since and including October 6th: 19.31″ which is 9.94″ over the average of October – February average of 9.37″
- The temperature has been 1.9 degrees below average during October -February so far (-.9° in Oct, -8.0° in Nov, +3.3° in Dec, -0.7° in Jan, and -4.2° so far in February)
We are currently on the back side of this storm that produced snow just northwest and north of our local area. Kansas City just barely missed this one, but did we really miss it? We had rain, thunderstorms with hail, and wind from this current storm, and now we have a soaked ground that is refreezing this morning, so watch out for slick spots.
This is a forecast map from the Canadian model which shows an aggressive look to Wednesday nights system. This shows freezing rain or sleet in our area as a fast moving system zips by Wednesday into Thursday. And, then the return of the “blizzard part of the cycling pattern” arrives around Friday. The GFS seems to have the best solution that fits the previous three cycles. Six days out from the storm in the past two cycles, if you remember, the models showed sunny and nice. The forecast for the Chiefs game from ALL other sources was for it to be great for the Chiefs-Indianapolis game with highs near 50 and Sunny. While, if you watched my forecasts on 41 Action News, I said every night from two weeks before to five days before that a storm was targeting that day, January 12th. And, then when we got within around 4 days, the computer models finally started narrowing in on the right forecast. All other sources that had sunny and beautiful suddenly changed their forecast to snow and cold. And, we know what happened that day, as there was nearly 1 foot of snow on the south side of the city. In this fourth LRC cycle, the AO is currently positive and there is an influence from this and other forcing mechanisms. Will the end of the week storm become more organized, or will it zip by with a strong cold front and just a little bit of snow? This is something my confidence level is still shaky on, and at the same time, the GFS model came out with a solution that if it is a bit stronger and deeper, we would get a four for four on this part of the pattern on producing a significant storm. I am 75% in favor of this solution or stronger, and at the same time if it zips by and is weaker, it would still be 3 out of 4 leading into the next cycle. Again, I favor the 4-4 scenario at the moment. And, here is that GFS model that is the most aggressive model at the moment. The European Model came close last night, and developed this system a bit farther east, but it trended in the more aggressive solution.
This is the prediction for March 1st, or Friday. Let’s see how the models trend. Have a great Sunday.