Blizzard, Severe Weather Risk, A Strong Storm, & A Look Into March Weather Madness

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Good Saturday morning bloggers,

Jeff Penner has the weekend off, so I am working on this Saturday morning blog entry.  I have been analyzing the entire weather pattern and everything is right on cycle, as it always is, according to the LRC.  This storm system is caught in the part of the pattern that tracked systems south of KC in the first two cycles of this years pattern, and this time the storm is tracking a bit farther north.  There are reasons beyond the AO+ that is forcing the farther north track of the system that are still being defined. In the coming years as we learn more about these other forcing mechanisms and seasonal differences our weather forecasts will get even more precise and accurate.  This season, our weather forecasts from 50 days out have been spot on with every single one of these storms. There has yet to be any LRC blunder, as we have really refined our forecasting technique.  Now, our specific forecasts have also been accurate as well, and forecasting the weather for each specific location is still going to be more hits and misses, just not as spot on as the LRC itself.  This storm was predicted to arrive this week, and it is here.  Now, what will it do today? Let’s take a look. And, then we will look ahead to the “Blizzard Part of the Cycling Pattern”, or as one of the bloggers said yesterday, “The Drought Busting Part Of The Cycling Pattern”. Cycle 4 of this years pattern will begin next weekend.  And, yes, the LRC will once again be spot on. Will it produce a blizzard, snowstorm, Arctic outbreak in the first week of March? Well, let’s see. A week out in the past three cycles, the models had no clue that there would be a storm. This time they have a clue, well the GFS has anyway. Let’s take a look.

7 AM Radar: Thunderstorms over northeast Oklahoma were moving north-northeast and tracking right towards KC as this storm system is moving out into the plains from the southern Rocky Mountains.  These thunderstorms will spread in from the south and quickly move across before noon today.

Screen Shot 2019-02-23 at 6.56.08 AM

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  A round of heavy showers and thunderstorms between now and noon. Then, another thin line may move through later this afternoon. In between these two bands the winds will pick up from the southeast and there is a chance of a warm up into the 50s. The highs will range from the mid 40s north to the 50s south.
  • Tonight:  Very windy with a wind shift to the west, then northwest at 30-50 mph and gusty.  There may be a little band of snow closer to midnight, more likely up north. A mini blizzard is possible around Hiawatha, KS and Maryville, MO with 1 to 4 inches of snow and blowing snow.

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day1otlk_1200

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The three naps above show the storm developing at the surface today, the severe weather risk, and the snowfall forecast.  There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms today centered on Mississippi and Tennessee, and there is a major snowstorm and blizzard likely extending from southeast Colorado to Wisconsin.  Warmer air may be drawn all the way north into KC And we may see a couple bands of showers and thunderstorms, and maybe even some snow on the back side of this storm.

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By this evening, the surface low will have jumped northeast and redeveloped over eastern Iowa. Look at that pressure gradient near Kansas City at 8 PM tonight.  This may produce 50 mph winds, and there is a trailing tail to the comma head that may bring one quick band of snow across our area by 11 PM. Why not, it has snowed on 37 different days this winter season. If it does snow at 11 PM to 1 AM even just a trace, that would add two dates to the total number of days with snow. Will that tail swing across KC? Let’s track it tonight.

The early March set up:

There she blows!  This is the GFS model, that for three model runs in a row has been trending into position a similar set up to the last two LRC cycles which did produce a blizzard and a major snowstorm in KC.  The January 12th, second cycle produced the nearly 1 foot on the south side of KC, and the blizzard on November 25th did produce nearly blizzard conditions and over a half foot of snow.  This model has a similar set up to these, and the other models just had strong cold fronts and weaker storm systems. So, here we go again as the models just poorly handle all of these set ups from even a couple days out, not to mention a week or longer out.  There is also an Arctic Blast trying to organize. Let’s see how this trends in the next few days.

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If it does not snow again this season in KC, then my winter forecast will have been spot on. I just do not think it is stopping yet, and later next week will be the next test.  In my winter forecast we discussed a range from 15″ to 37″ of snow.

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Have a great day!

Gary

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James PerleyRich (east of Topeka)SnowBadgerStl78(winon,mn)RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th) Recent comment authors
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James Perley
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James Perley

I stumbled on your weather blog just now, and I am glad I did. The blizzard north of Omaha gave us 8 to 12 inches 0f snow, and drifts were to four feet deep. Sleet and freezing rain fell before the storm and sealed in 16 inches of old loose snow. which could have drifted and made matters worse. Even with settling under the ice and new snow, we now have 20 inches of snow cover. It is beautiful in spite of the travel problems.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Not sure why some post on here get negative votes. I’m guessing they are trolls. Nice pic @ Michael casteel

Michael Casteel
Member
Michael Casteel

Thanks sir!

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
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RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

I think maybe they were downvoting the weather reports they didn’t like – as in saying “no” to the snow and dropping temps.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I don’t think so Rick. There have been a ton of down votes for obvious positive comments that weren’t pro snow over the past few days. I don’t really care, I just think it’s stilly.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Today has been filled with incredible weather. I saw pretty much everything. Now the winds are really strong.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TOP&issuedby=TOP&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Local Storm Report  Issued by NWS Topeka, KS TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON… ..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE…. ..REMARKS 0603 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S CONCORDIA 39.56N 97.66W 02/23/2019 M8.6 INCH CLOUD KS CO-OP OBSERVER 8.6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH A 10 INCH BASE.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

lt sn ow

Michael Casteel
Member
Michael Casteel

Changed my profile pic, making sure it worked. I’m a little tech challenged! Lol
Michael

Michael Casteel
Member
Michael Casteel

Testing testing

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

looks good

Michael Casteel
Member
Michael Casteel

Winds really howling now!

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Teeny tiny band of snow coming through Independence now. Another snow day lol!

Mikeyc11@hotmail.com
Guest
Mikeyc11@hotmail.com

Snowing a little bit up here in Maryville, Mo. The wind is blowing like crazy now. Hope we stay below an inch. I’m sick of plowing snow on Sunday! Stay warm Bloggers,
Michael

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Sideways snow here

C M
Guest
C M

Snowing now up here in Maryville. Blowing around pretty good too.

Mikeyc11@hotmail.com
Guest
Mikeyc11@hotmail.com

Is this my Boss by chance?

C M
Guest
C M

Haha. I doubt it, unless you’re a geologist, then I might be.

Michael Casteel
Member
Michael Casteel

Awesome welcome aboard you’re the first person from Maryville that I have ever seen besides myself post. I was a geology minor in the mid 90s

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Snowing lightly in west Parkville.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Add one more day to the snow count. Snowing on my back porch, temp down to 34.

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

Is the official snowfall count at MCI airport or at 41 News?

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Currently snowing in St. Joe

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Its snowing in central Lawrence

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Temp just dropped 4 degrees in the past 30 mins. Down to 39.

Jayhawker
Guest
Jayhawker

Snowing moderately here about 20 miles NW of Lawrence for the last 20-30 minutes. Covers the ground again now where bare spots were pretty common.

Troy
Guest
Troy

A weather spotter near Belleville, KS reporred 9 inches of new snow at 6:30 pm. I would guess we have something similar over here but hard to tell with the old snow and this stuff blowing around so much.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Is it just me or does it look like some of this is spinning our way?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=TWX-N0Q-1-24

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Maybe St. Joe…

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Looks like it but I think there is supposed to be a northward center jump of the surface low right about now. If that happens, I would think that stuff would fall apart before it reaches us.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Yeah it’s all loosing it’s forcing

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Thundersnow being reported in omaha

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The wind picked up considerably in the past hour & one-half, and we (25 miles north of Manhattan) are now close to the definition of a blizzard. The snowflakes are smaller, but they are now blowing horizontally, and visibility is only 1/4 mile. We lost electrical power at 4:20 PM because a Westar substation is down, so I fired up the generator and turned our alternate propane heater on. It doesn’t require electricity like our main furnace.

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Here come the strong winds, right on schedule

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Such a cool sky scene around….looks and feels like April. This year reeks of Covective setups…prepare thyself

Bob h
Guest
Bob h

Wow penny sized hail for a brief time in OP

Adam
Guest
Adam

Yeah my newly behind the wheel daughter called me freaking out asking how bad it was going to get. I told her it would pass. Lol north central kansas is a different story. Check out @TrooperTodKHP’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/TrooperTodKHP/status/1099400089141952514?s=09

Lisa Lu
Guest
Lisa Lu

Just like that…nothing and then intense rain with pea sized hail…and lots of it! Super loud! 119th/Antioch OP

Brian
Guest
Brian

We are right down the road at 127th and Antioch. We had about 1 minute of sonic ice sized hail. Then it was done.

Lisa Lu
Guest
Lisa Lu

Crazy how it hit and zipped by! Here comes the wind! I think some of the bloggers are right and we’re set to have crazy spring storms

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Just had some intense rain imbedded with hail, though it looks like sleet, temp 41

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Pea sized hail in the cell near 119th and K-7. Experienced it briefly

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Tornado warnings popping up in Alabama. What a system. Sure hope we don’t get a blizzard or lots of snow. I’m so done with this winter.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Is anyone else looking outside? This is an incredible scene by the Sports Complex. The sun is shining, there is light rain falling on the snow, and there are puffs of fog rising from the snow fields and blowing by. Also a line of towering cumulus moving in from the west. And it just jumped from 42 to 50 degrees!

Craig
Guest
Craig

I’m surprised that no one has mentioned the severe thunderstorm to our southwest.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Rain turned to snow at 2:30. No blizzard conditions yet (as of 3:09). Visibility is roughly two miles, and the snow is falling at a 45° angle.

Steve
Guest
Steve

Too much rain before cold enough to snow today outside Salina: .37”. Temperature hovered around 33 degrees all morning. It’s snowing now and very windy but it looks like on radar the storm is drying out. Pretty patchy radar returns. It’s always 1-2 degrees too warm with the storms for snow! I’m too dumb, is there a physics reason for this?

John
Guest
John

Great article discussing the cognitive disabilities of Trump supporters.
https://psmag.com/news/trumps-appeal-to-the-cognitively-challenged

Bob h
Guest
Bob h

Not on this blog dude cmon

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Too bad I know numerous very well educated deplorabkes including myself that are Trump supporters. Most of my fellow conservatives are tired of same old politics all of them bought and paid by someone. You may but agree with his politics or his background but at least he tries to fulfill campaign promises. No reason for you to post that here, hope it gets removed.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Should we all go to the Trump blog and talk about the weather?

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Idiot

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yeah, let’s go to a weather blog to talk about politics. Makes perfect sense.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

ROFL…yeah…libs like to pretend they is real smart and edumacated. TDS is real..seek therapy.

Jake
Guest
Jake

If everything is ‘spot on’ why do we have to wait and see so much?? Everything you brag about… you should be able to tell us!

JOSH
Guest
JOSH

The low pressure is just southwest of Topeka. I am so glad we missed out pretty much on the snow end of this system. They are getting hammered in western KS and NE with a blizzard! If it would’ve just went southeast another 100 miles, we’d have been right in the thick of that! That’s alright though, on to a dry week ahead. Spring time is almost here, that and warmer weather. Sure we might get a few more snows, but it won’t stay around long with the higher, and higher sun angle we are starting to get. Time changes… Read more »

Craig
Guest
Craig

18z NAM does at least give us a short period of snow in the 9:00-11:00 pm window.
Might be kind of crazy for a few minutes given the way the wind will be blowing, too.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Jace, you can download the weather app called 1Weather. It has a “12 Week” extended forecast section that uses the LRC as it’s basis.

Jace
Guest
Jace

Looks like my question (that you replied to, Rich) about where to find the long-range LRC forecasts got deleted?

Why? Did I do something wrong?

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

I know this is 2 days later but maybe you’ll check this again? (sorry, I had a busy weekend and am just now checking the blog again). It probably was deleted because posts that are directly related to the length of cycles or LRC discussion are usually moderated due to the actual specific cycle is a proprietary thing that is reserved to the paying customers of Weather2020. I would just recommend sending Gary an email, I did that once when my posts that were similar to yours were being deleted and I was confused. He was very kind in replying… Read more »

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Dry slot racing north, it’s now 60 degrees and sunny just 100 miles south of us. Will it get here before the storm rotates around?

matt
Guest
matt

Are you in the KC area?

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Yes

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Sun is about to come out in JoCo.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

The fog is hanging tough. The remaining snowpack is cooling and condensing as the warm air overrides. Looks to me like the clearing line is hung up around Louisburg.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

For those who enjoy winter weather, the CFS paints a very good picture/pattern for March. The below is the temperature forecast for March. The dates are the day of each model run. Looks like a very good jet stream position for KC snow. Whether it will happen or not, I don’t know. comment image

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

This is…….HORRIBLE!!!!

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image?ccb2a7c61516f843e2616d0ab6472927

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Topeka NWS has added the Manhattan and Junction City areas to the blizzard warning and WWAs now just west and north of Topeka. So closer, but still not close enough.

comment image

Nate
Guest
Nate

Need 2 weeks+ of ZERO precipitation to DRY OUT

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

None of that until October 2019! (knock on wood)

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

More like 3-4 weeks with the short days and freezing every night.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

we might get that in a few weeks

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

Dramatic rotation of the entire storm complex on radar. I can’t believe KC won’t get hit by the back end with a couple of inches.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Could still happen I suppose. Weather always has the ability to surprise.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

So close last nite .66 rain if snow WOW and that much more coming

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Do not think it will happen. I believe it’s too far west. Could be wrong.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Heavy sleet just turned over to snow at 11 am here in RP county.

Suzq3456
Guest
Suzq3456

Just had thunder here. Wow. Rain snow, graupel, sleet, wind, and thunder all in one week. I do notice on that March 1 map, it looks like we’re on the border this time around. I, like many, get very frustrated with us always being on that line. I’ve lived here 63 years, and know it wasn’t always like that. I don’t want to start a global warming argument, but I do wonder if the snow/rain/ ice line will move further south someday. Not in my lifetime I’m sure, but I enjoyed my snowy childhood. We enjoyed a foot of snow… Read more »

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Interesting read that explains what you are experiencing. Stl78 thought of you when I read it.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190212120044.htm

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

This makes absolutely no sense what so ever! lol – Climate change means the earth’s temperatures are rising ala what we used to call Global Warming in the Clinton/Bush era. So if the earth’s temperatures are warming, why would our climate become comparable to Minneapolis? Is this like the warnings of the next ice age in the late 1970s all over again now? This is why I don’t buy into any of this Climate Change, Global Warming, whatever you want to call it today agenda – it’s all politics. Anyone can write a paper. Anyone can have their agenda funded.… Read more »

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

THIS x 100. Why, as I’ve said before, I really respect you. Need you to get your own blog…………..

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

I think what the article is actually saying is that someone living in Minneapolis today would have to drive 500 miles south today to experience what their Mpls climate will be like in 2080. The remainder of the article discusses that cities north and east will become more like cities that are south and west of them. I’m not saying I agree or disagree. Just that I don’t think the article is saying that KC will be more like Mpls in 60 years. Rather, it’s saying in 60 years, Mpls will be like KC is now.

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Did you just look at the picture?

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

The problem is that people often interpret things they read, hear and see in a way that is consistent with their beliefs. This article clearly does not suggest that Kansas City will become more like Minneapolis. But I can see where someone wanting to undermine global warming arguments would skim it and come to that conclusion so that they can say it doesn’t make sense. Portions of the abstract aren’t written very well — particularly the caption under the picture.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It clearly says

“Under current high emissions the average urban dweller is going to have to drive more than 500 miles to the south to find a climate similar to their home city by 2080.

I read that as “the average person will have to drive 500 miles to the south to find a climate similar to what their home city’s climate is by 2080”

SnowBadger
Guest

You didn’t add in the possibilities of complete Nuclear War(or New-cue-lerr as some pronounce it), a complete massive sun flare that acts as an EMP and we are in the Stone Age again, a Super Virus Plague that wipes out civilization, AI takes over, maybe we are in The Matrix, a Zombie Apocalypse, or The coming of Christ.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Interesting read. I agree with f00 but enjoyed the article none the less. Thx for sharing!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

you just had thunder here…where is here?

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

where ….

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

On the topic of “drought busters” — we were abnormally dry in this zone north of Manhattan, but we didn’t experience KC’s extreme 2018 drought. Our dry period ended on September 2nd & 3rd. This specific spot got 5.11″ of rain during those two days; areas north of Manhattan got more (8.14″), and 11″ was recorded 15 miles upstream from here, causing our first flood on the Blue last year. Additional rain fell for the next three days (9/4, 9/5 & 9/6) for a five day total of 6.49″.  That September flood was followed by excessive rainfall during the first… Read more »

JVossboss
Guest
JVossboss

Sun just popped out after it poured down!

JVossboss
Guest
JVossboss

Never mind.. it’s gone! LOL

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

That storm down in Lynn county looks borderline tornadic – at least large hail.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

You might get some pea size hail mixed in on that cell but nothing tornadic or severe looking at all from that cell.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

No rotation but at one point had a little hook to it.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=EAX-N0Q-1-12

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

The severe wx area I am a bit concerned about today is SWMO especially near Springfield. Had one T-storm warning there already.

Mikeyc11@hotmail.com
Guest
Mikeyc11@hotmail.com

I forgot to mention our rainfall totals up here in Maryville Missouri. I recorded .80” of an inch of rain overnight. there are puddles everywhere but it helps melt the snow!
Michael

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Michael
FYI Are you aware it is showing your email address on your post ?

Mikeyc11@hotmail.com
Guest
Mikeyc11@hotmail.com

Yes, I figured if anybody wanted to discuss more weather with me they could. I don’t have much of an identity to steal! Lol just a common blue collar worker from the Midwest!
Michael