The Influences On This Year’s LRC & This Approaching Storm

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Good morning bloggers,

Nevada_Weather_11205.jpg-205a4

Another storm is approaching the plains. It just produced extremely unusual and rare events out over the southwestern United States. It snowed at low elevations near Los Angeles.  It snowed in Calabasas, one of my neighborhoods my parents moved to after I went to college at the University of Oklahoma.  That is just outside, or really on the edge of the San Fernando Valley.  It has snowed there before, and it is just something that happens once every 20 to 60 years or so.  Snow fell in Las Vegas, NV, as you can see on the left here.   There are some false reports going around that Las Vegas has never had snow before.  7.4″ fell in a rare storm in 1979. This storm was close to doing something like that huge storm if it would have just organized in the right spot, but fell short at just under 1″. Still incredible.

The storm is now heading east into Arizona.  Flagstaff, AZ has already had 2 feet of snow and more snow will fall today.  And, then this storm will reorganize out over the plains states and head east producing a severe weather risk.

Here is the day 3 severe weather risk for tomorrow, which will be updated just after I post this:

day3otlk_0830

Kansas City has had an incredible winter, and we aren’t done yet. Take a look at all of the days that have had at least a few snowflakes:

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37 days with snow, are you kidding me?  There is a lot to think about, a lot of take aways, and we will be going over these in the coming weeks.  The LRC is the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle. As discussed in yesterday’s blog, this part of the pattern was predicted to be the dominant storm track this winter.  Everything is right on schedule, and predicted by the Weather2020 team.  There are influences on this pattern, and right now there is something interesting happening with this next storm.  It is tracking north, instead of tracking south. It may very well be because of an AO+ influence. The AO is the Arctic Oscillation. Take a look at the index as of yesterday:

Screen Shot 2019-02-21 at 11.06.12 PM

When the AO goes high positive, the jet stream is likely going to retreat north and weaken, and when it goes deep negative, the jet stream is more likely to dive south and the pattern would then get energized.  This season has seen this index hover closer to neutral, with some smaller dips here and there.  So, how did it turn so cold and snowy? The LRC!  There are other influences.

Screen Shot 2019-02-21 at 11.07.38 PM

El Niño is the warming of the Tropical Pacific Ocean.  And, this is likely going to be a very weak El Niño influenced winter season. There is little doubt that this has impacted the winter.  There were many sources named this some sort of El Niño that would still be dry in California.  I was shaky on this thinking, and as it turned out, it has not been a dry winter out west.  So, once again, El Niño is definitely an influence on the pattern.  Look closely at the numbers.  This El Niño is quite similar to the one in the winter of 2006-2007.  What happened in Kansas City in the winter of 2006-2007?  How much snow fell that winter?  10.2″ fell that winter. Something else must be going on, right? Yes, the LRC!  Kansas City is now at 26.3″ of snow, and it has come from relentless snow storms, all fairly small when you really look at it.  There have been winters where big 1 foot snowstorms hit KC. As of this point we have not had one of these.

This next storm is being influenced by the AO+, the weak El Niño, and other factors.  And, the trend on the models has been for this storm to track farther north.  Let’s take a look.

13

These are some maps I showed last night on 41 Action News, KSHB.  This shows a band of rain moving by Saturday morning with snow developing west on I-70. I would not want to travel through that developing snowstorm.

1

11

The trend has continued north, and the farther north this system tracks, the better chance it will draw in warmer air.  I am posting this just after midnight, so I may update a few things around the time I am Sports Radio 810 WHB.

Thank you for spending a bit of your time reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation or read the comments as we share in this weather experience.  Have a great day.

Gary

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Ted in STJthetophatClassyCatKS JonesHeat Miser Recent comment authors
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Ted in STJ
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Ted in STJ

Heavy rain for three hours in St. Joseph and 35°. A few degrees colder and it would be a real mass five or 6° colder and we would have a hell of a snowstorm.

Troy
Guest
Troy

The HRRR and NAM 00Z runs were more robust with snowfall. The HRRR even brings some heavy snow as far South as Northern Riley County.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

I thought Riley County was already going to get heavy snow being in the blizzard warning

John
Guest
John

There is no requirement for snow to actually be falling for there to be a Blizzard Warning. There was one in North Dakota a couple weeks ago on a sunny day.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

A so-called “ground blizzard” blows existing accumulated snow, but the snow that remains on the ground in northern Riley county isn’t friable.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/science/blizzard.php?wfo=fgz

John
Guest
John

I was just pointing out that just because someone is under a Blizzard Warning does not mean that they are going to receive heavy snow. There could be blizzard conditions a little NW of KC tomorrow, with just some light snow and maybe a trace of accumulation.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Yes, visibility can be reduced to 1/4 mile or less from blowing, light snow.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

yeah, thats called a ground blizzard

Troy
Guest
Troy

Riley isn’t in the Blizzard warning. Just North and West of there.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary seems to like the possibility of a snow storm for us next weekend…that would be awesome.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Big Papa Poof regaining power, and none too soon!

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Keep us updated

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Basta!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Such a shame the woman that was buried in the land slide out in California. It just goes to show you the power of mother nature. I know many on here will complain about how snow causes many deaths but the reality of it is weather itself though beautiful and powerful is responsible for many loss of lives. Whether through fire, extreme rain, snow, wind, tornadoes, hurricanes ECT. I truly enjoy all that mother nature has to offer but it really puts things in perspective when u see, hear, witness or directly deal with some of the negative impacts that… Read more »

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

#GrandSolarMimimum. Actually I am giving this the next two years prior to totally buying in. IF those who swear by this are right we are going to see much more extreme events in 2020-21.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

A thing I wanted to mention…

Today’s initial forecast high was 41.

It’s 35 right now. It was 38 a bit ago.

Rain is supposed to begin in a few hours.

I know I shouldn’t get my hopes up, but I have to wonder.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yeah…dont think its gonna happen unfortunately. But that’s okay, cant win em all. Enjoy the rain. Mabye next weekend.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Two teases in one weekend, how nice lol

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Hopes up for what? More snow? More accidents/deaths? We have frankly had way too much………………..and spring/summer loom just like 1993.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Such a tease….Blizzard Warnings a mere two counties north of Lawrence, one county north of Topeka

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Think that’s 3 counties north of Douglas and 2 north of Shawnee

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Two counties between Douglas and the warning…one country between Shawnee and the warning. Thus two counties away and one county away. That’s how I meant it.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I don’t think you know how to count.

39th&Blue
Guest
39th&Blue

As far as winter weather goes, when Kansas City is the one expected to have winter weather where warnings, watches or advisories are issued, counties to our south and east almost always get added to the winter weather events later with advisories or warnings issued due to the weather shifting a bit to include them because they are just so friggin special, right, so why not? BUT, when winter weather is forecast or expected NW of KC where advisories, etc. are put out, don’t you even THINK, about thinking, about there even being the slightest chance that the winter part… Read more »

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

comment image?0dd6be662a8958426bbf6932c9a8d5e5

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Oh man the blizzard warning in Brown and Nemeha isn’t too far from Leavenworth. Atchison County is in the WWA. We just need a 40-50 mile shift to the southeast to be in blizzard warning.

Could it be possible?

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Just looking at the next 10 days or so on the new models, I love how every time a storm comes out of the Rockies that looks like it could give KC some snow, it falls apart because a big cold air mass from the north squashes it. Yet Minnesota and Iowa seem to be able to keep storms together in the cold. This is why KC is such a weird place if you like winter weather. Storms that stay together are often too warm for snow. When we get colder weather, the storms often get squashed. Things have to… Read more »

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I get that happens sometimes, but this year what in the world are you talking about? MCI 26 inches. South side kc I’m over 33 inches for season. To say every time it comes out and falls apart is simply inaccurate. Am I missing something? Yes, they get more up north because well they’re further north. We’ve been getting lots of snow here.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

It’s the same people who still say we are in a drought lol

Troy
Guest
Troy

A lot of times it seems storms produce better in other places but we should consider this. If SW MN is supposed to get a blizzard and it tracks a bit further North and they get missed, it still snows in MN. If you live in SW MN you say we got missed but looking at it from down here we never see it that way.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Huh? That made zero sense

Roger
Guest
Roger

It will be interesting to see which vorticity becomes the primary snow maker. There is currently one in northern Arizona and another along the southern border. A strong jet is diving south along the West Coast. I think that the GFS group is picking the northern vorticity center while the ECMWF and NAM are picking the southern one.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Blizzard Warning up here in NC KS now. NWS calling for 4-8″ of now with 45 mph wind gusts.

farmermike
Guest
farmermike

well here we go – just issued

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS…

Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. ………………………

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

for where?

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

18z NAM seems to show a few snow showers in the Northland at the end of the storm. Better than nothing!

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Blizzard warnings for north central and northern Kansas. So close yet so far…..

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

HRRR/RAP would suggest a severe weather threat ~4 PM Saturday.

Elaine Watson. McLouth
Guest
Elaine Watson. McLouth

35 degrees here east of McLouth. Snow cover is keeping temps a bit lower. Expect it to warm up more tomorrow irregardless.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Won’t this be messy with 1/2 inch to 1 inch of rain on the snowpack. Doesn’t look like we’ll lose all the snow, looks to be lots of standing water that could freeze in the usual place be later Saturday night/Sunday morning. Looks like we will have storm impacts even if we don’t get snow.

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

That is a concern of mine. Particularly because snow plows have placed the snow over the storm water inlets. If we get a flash freeze Saturday night, all kinds of things could go wrong. We could have these mountains of snow full of water turning into blocks of ice that won’t melt until May.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

March 1st, 3rd, and 10th look to be dates to save

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’m curious what the 3rd is? I don’t remember anything coming so close after the November or January storms.

craig
Guest
craig

Five days after the Thanksgiving blizzard, a second storm formed and it brought rain and thunderstorms to the metro. This feature followed the second iteration of the Thanksgiving blizzard in January and it will likely follow the third iteration in March.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Yes, that should be the March 10 storm. December 1 and January 18-19.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

But aren’t the impact of each of these storm systems somewhat dependent on how the AO impacts the location of the jet stream? Each of these could end up tracking north and northwest of the region leaving us in the warm sector for each. It looks like the current system will drag in colder air, but is that temporary or will that influence the track of the March systems? Also, how can you say watch the 3rd if the second storm is 5 days after. We should be looking at the 1st and 6th or the 3rd and the 8th?… Read more »

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

GFS and FV3 both have an interesting thing around March 9-10. I guess that’s the “post-blizzard” storm.

2soccerboyz
Guest
2soccerboyz

Noooooo! Normally I’m all in favor of snow, but we are flying out for a warm spring break trip. Please don’t let anything mess with our flights.

Logan
Guest
Logan

Is there any chance the storm could end up shifting back down south or east between now and tomorrow? Was really hoping to see a few inches of snow this weekend in Manhattan.

For any of you who happen to be in the path of this system, stay safe and warm!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Just read this LRC, period from 10/1/18 though today, has been the WETTEST in recorded KC history.
Sort of an ominous pace we are on right now for precip, and my creek can vouch for it. It’s been running high all winter long. I like wet patterns but this is getting Rediculous

Troy
Guest
Troy

Its been impressive and there really are few if any dry spots in the entire country. Even the drought areas in the SW are starting to get good moisture. Usually there is drought somewhere but its really taking a hit.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Doesn’t appear that its going to get above 40 today.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

ssshhhh don’t jinx it

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Whether you agree with the LRC or not, here’s something pretty fascinating. The first link is the GFS’s prediction for the November Blizzard one week before it happened. The second link is today’s GFS prediction for this cycle’s version of that same storm (March 1st). They look pretty darn similar for something that’s happening 3 months apart!

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/2018111800/usa/significant-weather/20181125-1800z.html

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019022212&fh=174

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Wow!

Like I said yesterday: 2018-2019 has a fantastic verification storm marking the beginning of each cycle. It’s great.

craig
Guest
craig
thetophat
Guest
thetophat

As primarily rain.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

There have been conversations on this blog regarding hype. The constant listing of “Kansas City Days With Snow This Season “ is another example. You can call it technically true, but it is excessively misleading. 17 of those days (46%) were a trace. A TRACE! Most people didn’t even notice the precipitation on those days. Further, another 6 of those days were.1 or .2. Now you have 62% of the “snow events “ virtually unnoticeable by the general public. That reduces the graph to being 14 days with snow. Turns that into a nonsense headline. How is that an incredible… Read more »

Bob h
Guest
Bob h

Why?

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

So what is being hyped then? Someone’s belief that is a stormy winter that’s different than yours? I mean thats cool if that’s your opinion, but hype is usually done for a benefit. So, if Gary is “hyping” winter, what’s his payoff? More bloggers? I don’t think he’s making advertising dollars off the blog.

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Well since the storm tomorrow is going north, it will be weaker If south It would have organized into a stronger one, so then the “hopes of a blizzard “ I’ve read what Gary said and this blog, so this is my understanding

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

CMC brought it a tiny bit south.

Kaden (Liberty Missouri)
Guest
Kaden (Liberty Missouri)

Why even call this a storm in the first place? obviously it won’t be

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

It’s a Strong Storm Kaden. Just because we won’t see accumulating snow, does take away that it’s a powerful storm system. Just track a bit too far northward

Brian K Hart
Guest
Brian K Hart

Do we know for sure the track won’t move now. So it definitely will stay north or could it pull a fast one on us and go south?

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Gary and team, I am really enjoying the new blog format. The ability to edit is so nice.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe
EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

12z NAM is a bit stronger than the 6z and in about the same location. Looks like north KC gets a dusting.

Jeff
Guest

Can the LRC tell us when we will get a break from this cold air. My amateur interpretation of the long range models shows below normal temps well in to March. I am tired of this!!!!!!

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Not defending the LRC or Gary but those are indices that do not define the the LRC, they are influences as well as the seasonal differences. The LRC is great at timing of storm systems, all of which may affect our area or region, not necessarily your backyard. Go back to certain dates of the previous cycles and compare the data, ie; the AO, NAO, PDO, PNA, MJO and Kelvin Waves. Also with the MJO and Kelvin Waves is indirectly tied, in way directly tied with ENSO. Positive AO, shift everything north a bit, or the swing of the storm… Read more »

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

my opinion is something is right with this run of the LRC. The first go around as this was a dry and relatively or slightly above average time period in nature. This time around we had three storms (some produce more than others) depending upon your location. I have always said the weather cycles throughout the year from autumn to may back in the 70s and early 80s I kept a diary and was able to find and see the cycling. For some reason I think this cycle is messed up. If the long-range forecasting tools are accurate the event… Read more »

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Every El Niño is unique. You cannot compare El Niño years just like you cannot compare LRC years. El Nino continues to cycle according to the ENSO’RC.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Man, that January storm was just peanuts at KCI. Crazy. 6-inch difference?! That January storm was the “doozy” one this year so far really (for only some obviously). I could take one more in the higher accumulation zone, but after that, I’d be just about ready for no more. Not too mention this winter has been pretty cool, fun, and a rollercoaster all at the same time.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

noooo, give me the high-accumulation zone, it’s necessary

TLRCIAJ
Guest
TLRCIAJ

Perfect example of why the “official snow/rain/temperature should not be measured in ONE place. Idiotic.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Worried now about the position of The Blizzard on the models. FV3 seems to have it for March 2-3?

skyspy
Guest
skyspy

Join the discussion…Are you kidding me? You’re excited about that? More than a week away? Some just never learn.

Steve
Guest
Steve

Can someone post a picture showing the snowfall amounts from this past storm?

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

The one posted by the KC NWS was not that great. If you live on the Kansas side Topeka has a much better map.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nwstopeka/status/1098389126448066562

MJounson
Guest
MJounson

So Saturdays storm Is the storm that produced 5.8, right?

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

Since this storm appears to be only rain. Is the blizzard returning next weekend, it should be on long range models by now, or will it continue to be too warm? Also, is it looking like a large storm?

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

Long term models have the storm on March 1st up in Iowa Minnesota and South Dakota. The area of low pressure looks to me moving across northern Iowa. Let’s see if it shifts over the next several days. As of right now we are on the very edge of the storm.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It should move. November and January had the same thing, especially November. It started out up there and gradually moved.

skyspy
Guest
skyspy

Join the discussion…No way to know for sure, this far out. Just glad its all or mostly rain this wknd.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Didn’t parts of kc have a one foot storm the weekend of the Colts playoff game? Did you forget that?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Gary, you basically reiterated my thoughts from a comment I made in last night’s blog. I’m kind of glad the AO is going positive though. As little snow as we’d received over the last 4 years, it was starting to wear out its welcome. That, and the cold.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hey even if this storm, the blizzard, and storm after miss us due to seasonal differences it’s still been a ride. Less than 10″ 3 winters and a row and we’ve had more snow this winter than the last 3 winters combined. Was just awesome doing my 13.3 mile run yesterday on snow pack (north KC roads were only somewhat plowed – some just packed.) Haven’t had a snow pack run in a long time like that! Seeing everything covered in snow – just so fun! I have not taken my studded bicycle tires off since the 2nd week of… Read more »

Freezemiser
Member
Freezemiser

It’s too early…..happy no snow day!

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Wow I’ve never posted first. Mixed emotions on missing this storm; at least the snowy part. But I’ve received over 40 inches this winter so hoping we can get some moderated temps to get thawed and try to start getting a little less muddy in a few weeks after the snow melts.

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Not far behind ya over in Stewartsville at 37.8” on the season.

Manny Carrillo
Guest
Manny Carrillo

Thanks for the updates