The Next Storm Is Producing Out West

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Good morning bloggers,

Screen Shot 2019-02-21 at 7.19.01 AMIt is snowing in Las Vegas, NV this morning and an inch is possible. This is the second time it has snowed in Las Vegas in the last week.  The latest storm is dropping south down the west coast and intensifying. It will be forming into an upper level low over Arizona by Friday,  and then begin tracking east before ejecting out into the plains as it gets kicked out by the next system heading into the Pacific northwest.  Seattle has had its snowiest February in this wild weather pattern, and Kansas City has now had 37 days with at least a trace of snow since our first one on October 14th when 0.2″ fell at KCI Airport. That was the earliest snowfall accumulation ever recorded in Kansas City since records began in the 1880s.  This weather pattern has suddenly been producing with storm after storm after storm.  This is what we forecast would happen months ago as we experienced the first LRC cycle in October and November. This is a graphic I showed on the air in early December, the Dominant Storm Track:

Winter Forecast Pattern December 1

And, here is the pattern developing now, as it lines up with the vision we had for this years pattern three months ago:

1

The ridge off the west coast extending into Alaska has ben developing over and over again allowing for the Arctic air generation. When you have anticyclonic flow that amplifies over Alaska, it creates the conditions for high pressure to build at the surface. This causes the sky to clear and the winds to go light, which in turn allows for radiational cooling and the build up of very cold Arctic air. This took through December to finally build up.  In December there was a lack of this cold air, even though there were wet storm systems.  In January and February, this Arctic air blasted south, and there has been enough cold air leftover, even when the Arctic air has retreated north, to provide the conditions for these recent snow storms.  Here is what I wrote in November when we issued our winter forecast:

Screen Shot 2019-02-21 at 7.01.02 AM

In our Winter Forecast Video, I discussed how up to 37″ of snow would fall in the KC viewing area this winter. Right now, KCI Airport is officially sitting at 26.3″ for the season. If it stopped snowing right now I would be exactly right on that specific forecast.  We know that we aren’t even close to being done yet, however. How high will this total go? This is a good question.  Maybe we should play another game of predicting the final snowfall total for the season? What do you think?  Malarcky won the title of “Best Weather Forecaster Of The Week” with a great prediction of 7.3″ of snow for these last three events, as we ended up with 7.2″ from the three storm systems.  If we play another game, we may wait until next week to begin.  Let’s first see what will happen with this next storm system.

As you can see above, the Canadian Model is showing the upper level low circled over the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The GFS and FV3 GFS models are the farthest north with the track of this next storm, and most of the other models track it more like this Canadian model, or just south of KC. If it does track south of KC, then the snow would be pulled into the KC metro area.  Rain and thunderstorms are possible ahead of this system. There are still just too many questions to be answered, and I will hold off on the deep analysis of this storm until we get through a couple more data sets, which will begin arriving in the next few hours. These will be discussed in the comments section of the Weather2020 blog.

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Just look at the cyclone forming on the new NAM this morning.  We will discuss in the comments today!

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience, and have a great day!

Gary

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Garrett
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Garrett

We. Must. Fix. The. Potholes.

Terry
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Terry

comment image old GFS 00z storm low has Shifted South right over the top of us.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Is this the same old GFS u deemed was the outlier? 😉

Terry
Guest
Terry

Yes I did

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

the low going right over us means we get mostly rain

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

That low has been forecast for days to track near KC (if you read the NWS discussion last few days). This is probably why the snow will still stay almost all northwest of here……unless a major shift still happens.

Terry
Guest
Terry

On the old GFS 00z the storm low has shifted south and Is crossing right over the top of the metro.

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

the storm is going north all rain sorry heat mizer snoew season is ovwer snow season isa over

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LOL…there will likely be more snow, but I am VERY satisfied with this snowy winter we had. WOOT!!!!

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

The outlook for the first 7-10 days of March is well below normal temperatures & possible arctic air coming down per the climate prediction center. Saw highs in the 20’s to mid 30’s in the weather channel. I bet we get accumulating snow the first week of March.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Josh
Guest
Josh

Finally, an end to winter is in sight. Yes, we are going to get cold again on Saturday night, and next week, but at least there are no big snowstorms in sight if we can get by this one, which right now, it’s looking like we are!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary says around March first he sees a blizzard

Lewis
Guest
Lewis

Well this stinks oh well

Randy D
Guest
Randy D

This has been a crazy winter season with it coming down to the last minute to figure out what is going to happen. I am just wondering with the models that come out does it take into account the snow cover in the area and calculate the effects it would have on these storms.

Jason
Guest
Jason

I’m waiting until Friday night before drawing any conclusion. Sure seems like we never now until like 12 hours prior.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Gotta laugh how these storms will walk right up to your doorstep before backing away…smh. lol

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Nam definitely north looking for a good rain to wipe the snow out saturday!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Where?

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Nam goes North and weaker

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

If you’re old enough to remember, “down goes Frazier down goes Frazier down goes Frazier“ said Howard Cosell

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Do you remember where the fight took place? I remember. Don’t google it.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Despite this storm going south in the previous two cycles, I have to side with the northern solution here. The AO is just way too positive and that’s impacting the track. A neutral AO would probably be enough to get snow in our area, but it’s just going to be much too warm. For those that don’t understand the type of impact the AO has on our weather during winter, this storm is all you need to see. If the AO doesn’t dip negative, it will be interesting to see how it impacts the blizzard part of the pattern. I… Read more »

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Very negative in November and a little negative in January.comment image

We were barely cold enough in January. That’s worrisome.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Hmm, so the only time we were positive really at all was during that warm stretches. Isn’t that something? Looks like “the same but different” will be rearing it’s ugly head for the next week.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

So folks 200 miles west like it when it doesn’t go negative. I may not buying that. I think your applying a legit argument that is too much of a general, unmeasurable thing to a specific/precise location. I think I know what you’re trying to convey, but what’s the explanation of KC needing the AO negative, but apparently, not very far away from here it apparently doesn’t matter as heavy snow will be close.

Thanks

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

00z Nam rolling out now. I’ll b curious to see what it does after the 18z jogged south

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Looking West so far

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Why did my post asking about the 500mb vort maps get deleted? What in the heck is going on?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

what did it say?

SnowBadger
Guest

We need a Block feature. There are a handful/s of trolls on here that I would love to block so I don’t need to read their immature and asinine posts that have no relativity to what I consider one of the best and only weather blogs I read. It would be a simple feature to add, so the admins don’t have to read every post for stupidity among some of these imbeciles. Does anyone agree?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

That is an awesome idea. Gary, would it be easy to add a block function so that any blog reader can block any other blogger that they find annoying?

ScaryHari
Guest
ScaryHari

This would also allow a sort of buffer zone for people who recognize people on the blog that they know in real life and do not want to interact with. It would allow them to still participate in the blog, without being forced to choose whether they want to be exposed to/interact with certain unsavory characters. The readership is probably very large. Much of it is likely just people who read but do not participate. But at least the ones who do stick in a name, which we can identify as having criminal records or restraining orders (easy to google… Read more »

Serious
Guest
Serious

I just remember the names and don’t even bother reading them….

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Me too Very simple

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Me too, but it would be far easier to just block entirely. Then you have those trolls who change their name regularily

SnowBadger
Guest

It’s pretty cut and dry. Just like FaceBook. If I block someone, I don’t see their posts and they don’t see mine, or if they do see my relative posts that actually add insight instead of insult, they can’t reply or up or down vote me. If this is in place, we get minutes, if not hours that aren’t wasted, sifting through the BS and trollers. Some may know all the trollers, some may know a few, and some that are new to the blog may not know any of them. How does someone new perceive and take serious the… Read more »

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

TY and take care.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

So does that mean people that don’t cheer for snowstorms and horrible weather and just come here for weather forexasts, information and entertainment get blocked?

John
Guest
John

That’s what it sounds like, for the people that do not want the hassle that is more snow at this point would just get blocked because the snow lovers would block you.

SnowBadger
Guest

John- No, it is each individuals choice if you want to block someone so it doesn’t show up. Geeesh, never mind.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

🤣

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary so in the 2 Previous cycles the storm went south of us and why Wouldn’t this storm not track or trend southern track ? What Causing that not to now ?

Adam
Guest
Adam

Terry, you’ve been on this blog for how long now?? Its the same, but different. How do you not know this??

Brian K Hart
Guest
Brian K Hart

Don’t be rude

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

we have had several storms eject out to our west/ Northwest this LRC. This storm is taking that same path, it’s happened a couple times this LRC. Can’t make this storm go south it’s just Not happening at this stage in the game
Should get 1more nice snow and a few other small snows yet this season even missing this system.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

AO is way positive. Last time it was neutral and heading negative.

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Gary, can you please post the 500mb vort maps comparing the “STL storm” with this storm? I’m trying to find the similarities between those two systems. They don’t appear to be anything close to the same. Anyone else agree this storm is VERY different than the stl storm?

Adam
Guest
Adam

It’s the same, but different..

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

Don’t they say that I am Sesame Street?

JimT
Guest
JimT

Gary, any chance the Winter storm watch gets extended to include Topeka, Lawrence etc.?

Weather Enthusiast P
Guest
Weather Enthusiast P

First time on this blog and I must stay I will return daily and join in on the conversation soon

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Welcome aboard wx enthusiast!

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

Welcome Weather Enthusiast P! Feel free to join the Facebook group we all created so we can share pictures and videos. The link is below!

https://www.facebook.com/groups/376373752913502/?ref=share

USMCVet
Guest
USMCVet

Eric, I virtually never post but have viewed this blog since the winter of 2017. I like the FB group idea. I requested to join, have no idea who the admin is.

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

USMCVet technically I’m the admin on the Facebook group but that doesn’t mean much. I’m just the one who set up the account and accepts the requests. Welcome aboard though! 😁

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

Enjoy the madness,

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

NAM is officially the outlier. GFS and FV3 go a little more north and stronger.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

we ll know tomorrow which is right

Terry
Guest
Terry

Old gfs is outlier and not good at all sometime or most of the time.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Terry, the GFS lines up with all the other models as of most recent runs. Maybe the Nam is onto something and will be the beginning of a southern trend.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Old gfs is outiler.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Ok Terry, u win buddy, old GFS is the outlier.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

Nothing has changed. Still a rain event for the metro. Still chance of snow at the end, but no blizzard here. Posting outlier maps doesn’t change that. Manhattan to Des Moines in the crosshairs.

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

When is our blizzard due back? Is that the next week storm?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Jhawk,

We expect 2 strong systems Between the 28th and March 10th. One is the blizzard and the other is the system that followed the blizzard 4-5 days after

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

considering that this is the same storm that was the “Stlouis blizzard” part of the pattern, it would surprise me if it didn’t trend further south

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Those Watches are really close…they have to adjust – move, add too, their initial watch area all the time.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

I’m not sure why everyone down votes you so much Heat, did you do something to offend some folks? Anyway, just letting you know I give you up votes here and there just to offset the blind hatred down votes. 😉

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I dont get that many down votes. A few anti snow trolls dont like me…but thats because Im anti troll and pro snow and they dont like it. Actually, best thing to do usually is totally ignore trolls. I’m warm and fuzzy…I mean…just look at my hair for crying out loud! 😉

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

Rich I was wondering the same thing and also up vote him frequently. I like what Heat Miser brings to the blog.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

like I said on the previous three storms there will not be much. I gave them all 1-2 I give this the same. At the very end of the event. The one good thing is it will rain three-quarter inch and wash most of the salt off the streets. My concern are the snow piles that have accumulated over stormwater inlets. If we have a an “flash freeze” we could have some real icing for streets.

I had a late lunch is actually a very pleasant day in the sun.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Didn’t St Joe get almost 6 inches from the recent system?

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

Yes

John
Guest
John

Then how can you say, ” like I said “, if you got 6 inches from the last storm. That is 3 times more than what you said?

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

You may be right, but the words “like I said” paint a pic like you know exactly what will happen. I’ll point out again you forecasted 8-11 inches not that long ago for your area and got 1-2.

jcling64056
Guest
Dustin TheWind
Guest
Dustin TheWind

This also isn’t showing the same storm it was a couple days ago. Some models were showing snowfall amounts anywhere from 20 to 60 inches on Monday’s runs. These totals are topping out under a foot. Would still be a huge storm for us, but nothing like the storm the models were hyping.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

yeah, but those older totals weren’t believable..the models have been showing crazy totals way out for a while now

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

61.1″ in South Dakota I think. lol.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Topeka NWS has issued a WSW for the counties just west and north of Shawnee Co (Topeka). That was a lot closer to Topeka than I was expecting. So MAYBE….there is still hope for areas to the east.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

those winter storm watches are for 2–6 inches of snow with windy conditions on Saturday evening. It is not a true snow based high accumulation snow based winter storm watch.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

with blowing in drifting, it still makes it super nasty

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Point?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This zone midway between Marysville & Manhattan is right in the middle of that watch. There has been a considerable difference between the weather in KC and what we’ve had out here. Our first snowfall of the season was 4″ on November 8th, and it was the heaviest snow we’ve gotten so far this season. We got no snow on November 15th, but got 1/4″ November 17-18. The blizzard on November 25th fizzled as it blew through here, dumping less than an inch of snow. The next snowfall was 1″ on December 1st, and we got no more snow during… Read more »

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

18z NAM12 looks to center on stj. Quite a bit weaker as well. 4″ there, 2″ in northwest KC. A few places reach 7″ in Kansas. I’d be okay with this.

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

New 12KNAM is a bit weaker but Low is a touch further SE as it ejects near the KS OK border.

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Nam is back to the SE…Takes the low right over Sedalia. Good trend for snow. Only thing I noticed is the low is a bit weaker.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

let the trend begin

Carlos
Guest
Carlos

Modelitis is a real thing… Looking at the ECMWF on the 12z run today has the L in N Texas, as long as that can slide E for a bit before it goes N / NE… Southern track is doable.

18z NAM is coming out soon.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Not that any of you care…but Mr. Lezak..you just lost a viewer. Basically you are telling us that if you don’t agree with what you say we can’t be here. That if we say you are not the best weather person in town we can’t be here…again in NO WAY is this an attack, however I though the blog was a place to express all weather related issues and let’s face it your competition is worthy of conversation. If you didn’t have competition what would be the point? You validate your forecast as Kansas City’s most accurate and the only… Read more »

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

100% agree. Been I huge fan of Gary’s for a while (still am) but the way Gary is telling us we can’t express worthy opinions is just plain wrong.

DesertQueen
Guest
DesertQueen

Eyeroll.

Kadens Mom
Guest
Kadens Mom

Oh my goodness😋

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

What are you doing tonight

come on summer
Guest
come on summer

no one has infringed on your freedom. You may start your own blog at anytime and make your own rules..

Joe
Guest
Joe

So you are fine with the rules being “if you don’t agree with what I say don’t comment”? You are not allowed to think for yourself? Isn’t that the point of a blog? To have discussion or debate? Sure we may not agree on things, but does that mean we have to follow dictatorship style rules? Again I am not attacking you or anyone else, just trying to understand how you view that as having freedom when you can’t express your thoughts on a storm or weather or even another station?

DesertQueen
Guest
DesertQueen

I’m really confused as to why you think blogs are about freedom. This is Gary’s blog where he can share information. The only rules here are the ones he creates. You don’t like it, you don’t have to be here. He doesn’t have to allow debate or discussion.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Maybe freedom is the wrong word choice…but what is the point of a blog if you can’t have a rational conversation about weather? I mean no one is going to agree with someone 100% of the time and if you do you aren’t being true to yourself?

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Soo good We all have to live by rules in many ways Gary says not to comment on the competition His decision, enough said My parents had rules which I as a teenager disagreed with Their point was clear, “while you live in our house you obey our rules One day you will be on your own, and you can make your own mistakes, I mean rules”. The freedom that we fought for (me too) is being able to have your own blog by which you make the rules Good luck!

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

I thought you were leaving ? You waited 36 minutes 🙄
Bye bye

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

No actually Gary removed a couple posts of mine today simply for asking to give us more detail on his write ups and dive a little deeper into his track of this storm…

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Good Lord. You’re ridiculous. He never said anything of the sort. You’re interpretation is way off base. If you need it explained, just ask. Feelings hurt with a few words that are totally rearranged by you. I guess if we lost you though, no response will be forthcoming. Good riddance.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

I do somewhat agree that we should definitely be able to watch and look at other channels… I love to compare and see who is saying what. I think Gary might be getting at that he does not want people to focus on what other people are saying, but just to focus on the weather discussion. I have seen somewhat in the past that 41 sometimes has not owned up to their mistakes.. and every channel makes them! But sometimes, saying “the LRC says this..” does not mean that 41 will be right all of the time. There is so… Read more »

Joe
Guest
Joe

Nice response….I think that sums it up perfectly…I mean again I don’t mean anything bad by saying this but this is just like a young kid who has the ball and when he doesn’t get his way takes the ball and goes home and all the kids don’t get to play anymore…again nothing personal but this is somewhat like this…I just think like in anything you have to take the good with the bad..when you are right sure take some self pride and gloat about it, nothing wrong with that. However when you are wrong about a forecast own up… Read more »

Dustin TheWind
Guest
Dustin TheWind

I look forward to no longer having to see your negativity.

Jrock
Guest
Jrock

I’m sure Gary is heart broken and won’t ever recover from losing you as a viewer!
It’s people like you that ruin this blog.
Big difference from having an opinion or
just being a disrespectful asshole! U & ur buddy
Joshua from (Shawnee) can take a hike for good.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Sometimes it isn’t so much what you say, as it is the way you say it. There is a way to offer valid criticism without putting a person down. You need to learn the difference.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Don’t give up on it yet. Friday night before the Sunday storm in November all the models were taking it north.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Check out the 1-week-post-blizzard storm on the FV3!comment image

John
Guest
John

Ok I will try something different, because every time I used to want a lot of snow the snow would almost always underperform in accumulations. So maybe if I pretend like I want a foot of snow this weekend it will warm-up and we can be done with it.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Well – yeah – all the data now has the snow north and west of KC. Looks like this one will pass us by.

Lewis
Guest
Lewis

Shit

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

what happened to not believing model run to model run

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

When all the models are all over the place there is little faith in the models, but when every model – EURO, CMC, GFS, NAM, FV3, NAM 3KM, Icon – all have a similar solution, it’s apparent the storm is close enough that all the models have narrowed the track down. Be it on shore or not, having that consistency amoung the models means it’s 85% sure to track +/- 30 miles of the path the consensus shows. For it to hit KC when the consensus is what it is now is very unlikely – probably 5% or less.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

time will tell I guess

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Shouldn’t you be in school?

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Curious….where do you get 85%? Is that you’re percentage or is that something you’ve read about?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

And March will warm big time…………..

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

sometime in March…but much of march is forecast to be cold

DesertQueen
Guest
DesertQueen

Good.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

The big ones always do, it seems like.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Honestly… not too upset. Give us a few more days of break before we get pounded again lol

Mark Maxey
Guest
Mark Maxey

Gary, you have become my go to weather fore caster…you have been spot on! Thank you for your work!

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

TORCONS, naming winter storms – all Weather Channel drivel to drive viewership and hype. Has no meteorological basis. Only designed to be shock media.

Metro will get a little snow and some wind on the backside later Saturday. Rain event for metro. Thunderstorms will be nice.

Joe
Guest
Joe

Yup…as I have said it’s all about the hype….whether it be on a national or local level

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

One thing is for sure, this storm will have plenty moisture to work and the winds will b an issue. This will likely b a classic blizzard. Snow ratios should be closer to to the 10 to 1 ratio so hopefully blowing and drifting will b minimal. Fingers crossed this trends south!

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

I agree

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

This storm is going to track south, I guarantee it. Super-cell snow blasters will be in place over KC. I am forcasting 30+ inches of snow for KC this Saturday. You heard it here first.

Brian K Hart
Guest
Brian K Hart

You drunk. Lol

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Haha armageddon! Actually the major part of this (which I call a disaster pattern) will manifest itself this spring and summer. I don’t go nearly as far as you but expect 2019 to equal or surpass 1993. Thankfully some places like Riverside MO are much better prepared for it. Places like NKC are where I would monitor this closely come June-July.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Gary, can you please ban this guy? He brings nothing new to conversation and he’s rather annoying.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Models are def converging. Canadian is more in line with others today

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

This storm is going to pack a punch for many areas, some with snow, some with rain, some with severe weather. There are TORCONs as high as 4 associated with this storm to the states to our south and east. This will have a major impact not only from an inconvenience standpoint but economic standpoint as well. I am weather enthusiast as many of you are or you would likely not be on this blog. The winter weather has been expensive to say the least for municipalities, restaurants, airlines, and other retail businesses. Not to mention being very disruptive to… Read more »

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

I love a good snow storm, but I’m ready for a break (and Spring).

Carlos
Guest
Carlos

That Low needs to be in the middle of Oklahoma if you want a chance to get hit in KC… The current models have that L anywhere from Middle of Kansas to the Oklahoma / Kansas border – It needs to be 100 miles more to the south for it to happen with only 48 hours left… I am not seeing this as anything but thunderstorms and MAYBE getting clipped with snow on the back end if we are lucky IF we trust models at all. The L will then shoot N / NE from that point and pass right… Read more »

Bentley the Weatherman
Guest
Bentley the Weatherman

I totally agree with your prediction Carlos. The models are showing it to be near the Omaha area. But who knows for sure!?

Suzq3456
Guest
Suzq3456

My only thought is that I remember earlier this season there have been a couple storms that it appeared to be too warm, or the storm was tracking too far north/south, and at the last minute, sometimes as it was arriving, it all changed very quickly. And I also recall 2 storms that it was very warm, even the 50’s and 60’s hours before the storm moved in. In fact those were our largest accumulations. I think I’m wishcasting, but I was only expecting the return of the blizzard next week, and now we may get a bonus. I’m still… Read more »

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

That is true. Even the blizzard itself was still shifting south the morning of. The night before, it was thought that accumulations would be weak south of downtown, but then the highest totals ended up being in Lee’s Summit.

Joshua (Shawnee)
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Joshua (Shawnee)

Wow look at that snow band on the FV3. Omaha is in for it.

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

When this storm came through in November, the AO was basically neutral, on it’s way to going negative. This time it’s very positive. That means a more northern track shouldn’t necessarily be a surprise.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

12z GFS not looking good, but I guess that’s not really any change from earlier.

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

FV3 is maybe 20 miles south of its last run. But the snow is still about 150 miles northwest of KC. Honestly, I’d rather miss this one by 100s of miles than by a few miles. Less angst. HA.

Logan
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Logan

What is it looking like for the central / eastern central portions of the state? Hoping the storm takes a solid track for Manhattan… I have a stupid obsession with winter weather and I would love for us to get a blizzard. I drove from Ames, Iowa back to Manhattan when we had “The Blizzard” back in November. It took me 15 hours to get home, but let me tell you I had a ton of fun throughout the entirety of the drive. Another thing, I would just like to give a thank you from the bottom of my heart… Read more »

Joshua (Shawnee)
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Joshua (Shawnee)

Gary, what is your thoughts on the track? I read above and you really have no hunch or answer. I would expect to see some kind of chart/graph explaining your tracking opinion. Anyone can simply look at the GFS, Euro, NAM and come up with a conclusion based on those individual models (modelites).

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

If the other models had snow for KC, I wouldn’t be concerned about the NAM trending north with this latest run. But it seems to me that the NAM is just coming in line with the other models. So I’m back to my original thoughts, which is no (or very little) snow for KC out of this system. That 00Z NAM would have been nice. I would have been in a jackpot zone. Iowa and southeast Minnesota are the places to be this year if you like snow.

Garrett
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Garrett

Watch GFS models fv3, and regular GFS. They have trneded WITH NAM this year. They will pull south, and they will all align at an average, further south than the northern gfs solutions.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

GFS will probably fail this one completely I think. It’s been wayyy too warm the whole time this season. FV3 might get it.

On that note…12z GFS just started.

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

Still north. Believe me. Very few people like snow as much as I do. So I’d love a southerly track that gives KC snow. I just don’t see it with this one. Hopefully March 1st will pan out.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

perhaps this one will pan out too

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Haven’t we have lots of snow here? I’m over 33 inches for the season. We are getting it good here too aren’t we?

Joshua (Shawnee)
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Joshua (Shawnee)

When the Low ejects out into the plains, this storm will intensify way too much for a Southern track to develop. Omaha, NE will be the target.

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

NWS for three days out.
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