A Recap Of The Three Recent Storms & A Look Ahead

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Good morning bloggers,

Who is worn out?  I know I am, and I am still energized by this incredible weather pattern that we have been experiencing.  There is so much to discuss today and I am trying to figure out where to begin.  Well, let’s begin with the snowfall total on the Plaza for our contest.

IMG_7292This was our third storm system in the past five days.  The first storm came through Friday and caused the conditions for the horrific multi-vehicle accidents on I-70, including the 47-car pile up near Oak Grove, MO.  This first storm produced 4.2″ in front of our studios on the Plaza.   And, then we had the second system come through on Saturday evening with the graupel, snow, and freezing drizzle.  The graupel was fascinating in its own right as it was being described as dippin’ dots.  I ended up getting a great video of Sunny while it was falling. That system did produce 1/2″ to 1″ of snow up north. On the Plaza it produced 0.1″.   Then, we had last last nights third storm in five days.  I measured in five spots that were cleared and had new snow, and the total is 2.9″ as of 6 AM this morning.  For our contest, this will end up being a total of 7.20″.   I will post all of the entries below.

I think we set the record on the number of comments yesterday in one blog.  Thank you for sharing and participating.  Many of you got the usual “modelitis sickness” and emotions were up and down based on every hour of model runs.  The most important thing to do on days like this is to monitor radar, satellite, and surface observations.  Remember rule #1 of forecasting:  Always look outside because you never know!  So, if you are immersed into the computer models, then you may forget rule #1.  It was quite difficult, as right before I left for work, the European Model had an epic failure on its snow modeling. It had zero accumulation south and east of around downtown KC, and it would have been easy to panic at that point. Then a few HRRR model runs came in with similar solutions early in the afternoon, and it was about that time I found one of the disturbances over Oklahoma that was strong enough to convince me those models were just “bad” data.  And, I updated you in the blog to try and help with your emotions.  That disturbance did track northeast into Missouri, and it put KC into the favorable spot, and yes, it was the disturbance we discussed in the days leading up this storm. The LRC helped with a specific forecast.

I-70 was shut down once again and closed east of KC in the 6 AM hour once again today, but it quickly opened up again with no reports of any major crashes.

A Look Into This Weather Pattern:

12

This map above is what I showed last night on the 10 PM newscast.  It was a modeling of one possible solution for the Saturday storm system.  If you have been following the LRC closely, then you know this is the “St. Louis storm” part of the cycling pattern in this third LRC cycle.  In mid-November there was a 9-inch snowstorm that hit St. Louis. KC had snow from this system as well, and this part of the pattern did produce another system in cycle 2 in early January.  Both systems tracked south, so a south trend on the models makes sense by just knowing how to use the LRC.  The models have had this south trend, and if they track this system just a bit farther south, it would potentially be a blizzard in the KC viewing area.

2As I just discussed, the trend has been for this system to track farther south.  This map on the left shows the 500 mb flow valid at noon central time Saturday.  Look at the little circle near Wichita, KS. This is the type of storm that the blizzard conditions would develop just north and west of this upper level low. So, if it tracks south of your location, then you would go into that snowstorm and blizzard threat.  Ahead of the upper low and to the south and east there will be a chance of thunderstorms.  This is a fast moving system that is being ejected out by another system moving into the western United States, near Seattle, WA.

The trend has been south, and we will just have to see how this third LRC cycle sets up. Remember, “it’s the same, but different”, as Gary England said to me ten years ago, a meteorologist in Oklahoma (was in the movie Twister as the featured weatherman warning the public).  He said this to me when he actually had a glimpse of the LRC.  He saw the complex puzzle that we share with you here, and he only saw it once, in that 2009-2010 winter when I was trying to explain to him why Oklahoma City would get hit by a major snowstorm. I discussed this with him around a week before it produced as it fit the pattern. Then, he has told me, he has never seen it again. This is how complex the LRC truly is.  I am on a tangent now, omg.  Anyway, this storm fits too, and it is “the same, but different”. So, we must see how this third cycle sets up this weekend.  The fourth cycle of the LRC will begin in around a week to ten days.

1

This next map shows the Saturday storm system. This is the NAM model that has its own solution. I don’t want to over analyze this system yet, as we just need to see how the models trend today.  For now, this storm is pulling away, and we get somewhat of a two day breather before Saturday’s storm approaches.

The Weather Blog Snow Forecasting Game Results:

  • Storm #1:  4.2″
  • Storm #2:  0.1″
  • Storm #3:  2.9″
  • Total:  7.2″

Screen Shot 2019-02-16 at 9.52.24 AM

Screen Shot 2019-02-16 at 9.52.50 AM

Screen Shot 2019-02-16 at 9.53.26 AM

Thank you so much for entering.  If you take Jeff Penner and myself out of the contest, then we have a blogger winner.  The winner gets the honor of being the “Best Weather Forecaster Of The Week” award.  The winner is Malarcky!  Malarcky, you are “THE BEST WEATHER FORECASTER OF THE WEEK”.  Congratulations! We should play another game. What would you all suggest?  The 7.20″ of snow that fell in the five days is about as much as what fell all of last winter, and more than the previous two winters before that. Wow!

Sunny The Weather Dog shows us the snow on top of snow with a snow depth of nearly 6″ here in KC:

IMG_0164

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog so you can join in the conversation, or read the comments from our weather friends as we discuss this fascinating weather pattern:

Have a great day. We will go in-depth on 41 Action News tonight as this next storm comes into focus.

Gary

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Grambo624KarenGStl78(winon,mn)Kimberly BonserLrcfan1 Recent comment authors
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AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

06z GFS about the same as the 00z run

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Yep

Kimberly Bonser
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Kimberly Bonser

Would you mind to post the the link for the Facebook group?

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Stand by Kimberly

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)
Ted in STJ
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Ted in STJ

Last. Had to take care of some business in the bathroom. Good night again.

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

06z NAM even further south.

comment image

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Nam south euro north

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

Yea the 00z Euro tonight has the surface low about 85 miles WNW of where the 00z run had it last night. Heavy precipitation still in a swath across NWMO this run, but no cold air with that 540mb line still back to the west.

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

06z nam south has kc near the heavy snow.

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

Just posted my thoughts (for what little they are worth lol) of the 00z ECMWF data on the Weather 2020 Facebook group if anyone is interested in what the lastest run is showing for the weekend storm.

KarenG
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KarenG

Looking for the FB page and not seeing it. Weather 2020? could you post link. This is fascinating.

jcling64056
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jcling64056

comment image

latest Canadian model

Matt
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Matt

To much Rain or Snow. Also Blizzard showing up on 1st.

Dale Gribble
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Dale Gribble

All reliable data I’m looking at says that the Sat storm is going to shift south big time. I’m talking about super-cell snow blasters right over KC. I’m talking 30+ inches of snow. I’m talking infrastructure failure. Food shortages. Complete and total chaos. Buckle up, because this sh*t is about to get real.

Bob
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Bob

Should I buy bread and milk now?

Matt
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Matt

Not until Katie Horner interrupts our broadcast and tells us we are about to die!!

Three7s
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Three7s

Listen to the man! It’s Rusty Shackleford after all!

Grambo624
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Grambo624

When Rusty speaks, we should all listen.

Morgan
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Morgan

GFS still north. Not budging at all.

CraigMac
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CraigMac

Hasn’t the GFS been one of the weakest in predictions this winter?

Morgan
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Morgan

It has been. However, it was decent with the last two events.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

My intellicast app says that there is a 100% chance of “something” happening on Saturday. But it does not know what.

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

New NAM, is about the same as last nights 00z ECMWF run
with the heaviest snow in a narrow band through NWMO. Last nights Euro has a bit more widespread sig snow, though.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019022100&fh=66

If y’all are on the Weather 2020 Facebook group, I’ll post the 00z Euro on there again when it comes out

Kimberly Bonser
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Kimberly Bonser

How can I join the Facebook group?

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

ICON same positioning as NAM (perhaps a bit further south) but a little too warm for much of the storm. comment image

Matt
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Matt

That would mean severe Weather.

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

I will be anxious to see the euro!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

comment image

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Wowser!

MikeL
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MikeL

Kinda hard to take a map like that seriously, but who knows…

Zcfloyd
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Zcfloyd

Holy nam!

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

That is one narrow band of snow. Almost looks like a lake effect band. There are going to be some very happy people living very close to some very disappointed people — assuming this scenario pans out.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I expect it to shift south maybe 10-15 more miles but track should lock now we are within 3 days

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

I need it to move about 50 miles further southeast to be in the middle of it. So let’s shoot for that. BTW, watch the FV3 put this band over northern Iowa.

Ted in STJ
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Ted in STJ

A highly confident statement. That’s why we call it with testing. I am hotel. We actually needed to rain to wash all the salt away and off of the streets. And also awards or automobiles.

Joshua
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Joshua

Looks less intense as the previous run but south trend is good.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Yikes, now I understand your worry of it being too far south! Not another Northland Split!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Woof! We gonna get blasted!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

00z NAM has Blizzard in KC north.

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

It has shifted a bit south for sure!

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Minnesota broke state record today for snowiest February. 30.4 inches.
Previous record for Feb. was 26.5” set in 1962.

Ted in STJ
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Ted in STJ

The winter of 1962 I remember it well I was three.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Some se of Minneapolis/St Paul have received more if u can believe that. I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s been crazy! Can’t wait for spring.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

And weren’t you guys up there really lacking for snow for a decent time? Seems like that was the case if I recall. Maybe November December and early January not that much?

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Yep, Nov was snowy, Dec and Jan were cold but dry and then Feb came in with a bang. Big shift on recent Nam. Keep goin south baby!

Andrew H
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Andrew H

St178

Supposedly it was a state record. For February. But it might have been a Twin Cities record.
Just like the KC area. There are reporting stations and then there is the “official” reporting station. Lol
Just depends on what backyard it was measured in 😬😁

2soccerboyz
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2soccerboyz

So-my college student should scrap the drive home to KC from Hays, KS this weekend, right?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

watch for the timing, then come home before the storm gets there.

Glenn
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Glenn

Looks like snow and freezing rain on Saturday during the day in hays

2soccerboyz
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2soccerboyz

Ugh! Was going to come home Friday & drive back for work Sat night. Don’t think that’s going to be a good idea. 🙁

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Gary – is it of a concern that if you take the LRC literally it would suggest the widespread 15-day 20-40″ snowfall totals the GFS and FV3 show in southern Nebraska could occur in the city? Provided we have a very active part of the pattern on our heels it seems insane but somewhat reasonable to at least say we could see 15″ more in the next 15 days.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Keep in mind that if March 1/2 = January 11/12 = November 25/26 blizzard than Saturday would be pretty much lined up w/ St Louis storm (as Gary says.) And also keep in mind that it remained snowy/active after the blizzard passed until 12/11, 1/31 which means we would have at least another 2 weeks before we dry out much. This will be major trouble in Spring as it’s been wet almost 70% of our weather pattern. Temperatures are another story as they don’t line up as well but that’s because the surface is not the same as 500 millibar… Read more »

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

I just want to point out something I noticed. These models showing this storm…the area of heaviest snow has an oddly similar shape to this, just shifted north. Seems that storms that move in this direction pattern are historically the biggest ones in KC.

Not saying this will happen, obviously, but it would be pretty crazy if it did!

http://www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/uploads/7/0/9/4/70941227/kansas-city-1912-snow_orig.png

Ted in STJ
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Ted in STJ

I remember watching 1911 well. I was 15 at the time. I was born in 1897 and I am currently 124 years old. It would be nice to see another snow like that. According to Indian lore in the 1830s there were several winters in that. That were called snow winters where there was over 3 feet of snow in this area. I was not alive in the 1830s. Just 1911.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

lol

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

Based on the latest NAM, the heaviest band of snow would need to shift about 100 miles southeast to make KC the bullseye. That would mean we’d want the low to track roughly from Ft. Scott, KS to Clinton, MO to Kirksville. comment image

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Did you see the Euro link I posted? It’s the right direction that way.

Glenn
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Glenn

I highly doubt we get 20 inches of snow this weekend. Mainly going to be rain and close to 50 degrees on Saturday. Highs in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

LOL…I’d say thats a safe bet. I highly doubt I will make a million dollars this year too.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

The irony to all this is if we do get this storm coming through as a blizzard this weekend, we could theoretically have 2 blizzards 2 weeks in a row impacting areas within 100 miles of each other if not training near the same areas.

John
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John

I am tired of the snow, so I hope this weekend is all rain and hope the potenital blizzard in early March comes from Dairy Queen

Adam
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Adam

I want mine in oreo please.

DesertQueen
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DesertQueen

Yes, friend! Over it!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/sea-level-pressure/20190223-2000z.html Euro would have the low just south of KC. Needs to shift about 30 miles further south and KC metro will be in bulls-eye. NAM has the low a bit north of the Euro. FV3 is somewhat in line with the NAM but a bit north. GFS – not even going to consider it at this point it’s been wonky with this St Louis snow storm – it never did figure out what the storm was going to do if I recall. LRC – I think the LRC would STRONGLY STRONGLY STRONGLY suggest a southern track. Again, I’d be… Read more »

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

Looks like you’re leaning towards the LRC and this storm will take a more southerly track?

KS Jones
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KS Jones

When you refer to the “St. Louis Snow storm” is that the November 25th storm that dumped 7.9″ of snow at Concordia and 14″ in northern Washington County?
Here’s a link to a map of the snow reports for November 25.
comment image

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

No, November 25 is “The Blizzard.” The St. Louis snowstorm happened a week earlier.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

This link has other maps and details about the November 25th blizzard:
https://www.weather.gov/ict/Nov25_2018_Blizzard
Blizzard conditions become widespread across much of central and northeast Kansas on Sunday Nov 25th with wind gusts over 60 mph and snowfall accumulations exceeding 6 inches across portions of central Kansas. A handful of locations in northeast Kansas received over a foot of snow.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

No. November 15th. The storm is falling into a trough feature of the LRC.

comment image

Should track 60-75 miles north of where it tracked due to the feature.

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison

With the consistency of the tracks between the different models, I would be shocked if the models would trend anything further south than southern MO.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Keep in mind the snow wasn’t even supposed to be as far south as Omaha on yesterday’s runs.

Glenn
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Glenn

You must be an expert meteorologist

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Gfs not trending south

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison

Good afternoon, Gary! It looks like based off of the latest nam, we are about 150 miles from a major major winter storm. It is very interesting, though, because this looks like a monster storm, but it is a very compact one. It does not look like it will cover a lot of area.. that’s why the track will make such a difference. There has been a slow souther trend, but we need it to track south of us, not on top of us like what it is showing now. Gary, do you have a feeling on this storm besides… Read more »

Ryan
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Ryan

Monday (Wednesday) morning meteorologist here. While the trend is positive. I would be shocked if the storm shifts far enough south to put southern Johnson County in the sweet spot for snow.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Good, put the Northland in the bullseye for once lol

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Northland split!!!!!

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Watch it happen! :)))

Tyler
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Tyler

Anybody have a best guess as to when we’ll see a prolonged warmup? Snow is fun and all but really looking forward to some warmer temps

Clint
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Clint

FWIW the ICON now has snow for KCcomment image

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Looks like the Euro. Just less snowy.

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison

Can you post the Euro?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Besides snow depth maps this is the best I can do – but gives an idea.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/significant-weather/20190224-0000z.html

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

And none for Minnesota, which some of the other models have getting clobbered.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

18z NAM same spot as 12z pretty much

comment image

This would be 4-5″ per hour snowfall rates in the core folks. lol.

Lewis
Guest
Lewis

Good or bad for snow

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Models shifting south with time. It’s a trend for Kansas City. Remember yesterday FV3 showed this Sioux Falls SD to Vermilion SD.

Lewis
Guest
Lewis

I dont know how to look this stuff up I go off what others say

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Models shifting south over time seems to be a recurring trend for 2018-2019. It was especially apparent in November and December.

CraigMac
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CraigMac
Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

There will be strong winds with the snow too!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Look at that vort max . Looks like a friggin hurricane.

comment image

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

KC is almost in the northern eye wall lol

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

a SNOWICANE

Jhawk95
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Jhawk95

We never seem to be in the sweet spot!

Chris S.
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Chris S.

Don’t really mind snow but in no way am I a snow lover. Glad to see we are finally getting into higher sun angle so when we do get snow it won’t last as long on the ground. Today is great, good snow last night and decent melting today. Also very noticeable that the days are getting longer. I hate it when the sun goes down at 4:30.

Logan
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Logan

Interested to see how all of this is going to pan out this weekend… I really feel like it’s going to stay too warm for there to be any serious accumulation, but I could be wrong. NWS from Dodge City put out a graphic earlier today covering a huge portion of central KS up into NE and IA for the best chance of snow/heavy snow. I’m thinking we’ll end up just seeing a lot of rain during the day with a mixed bag towards the evening hours with minor accumulations and minimal travel concerns. I’m a crazed snow and ice… Read more »

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

It all depends on the track of the storm— it will effect the temperatures!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Latest EURO has KC metro getting 2″ south side, ~6″ north side of City Saturday & Sunday. Snow depth Saturday 03z ranges from 2-5″ and 00z Monday ranges from 4-10″ across the KC metro.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

NO. Where is the December warmth? It has to return…………….

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

NEVER! lOl

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Now that I’ve gone on the record of saying zero percent chance of snow on Saturday, the Euro is quite a bit southeast of some of the other models and brings significant snow very close to KC. Hopefully I was wrong. But I still don’t think KC will get in on the snow action this weekend.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It did hit St Louis before as I and Gary have stated. This storm could fall into the long term LRC troughing and boom. I’d actually be concerned it would miss us to the south if anything though it looks as if weaker blocking may prevent that.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

We should just about have our year’s total. Still expecting a major warmup starting very soon.

LibertyWeatherGuy
Guest
LibertyWeatherGuy

I think I’m going to have to trade my single stage snow blower in for a small 2 stage blower. This heavy wet snow is beginning to wear on this old man. We had about 7” +/- in Liberty, 3 storm total.

Jason
Guest
Jason

I bought a huge 2 stage Ariens in 2014 after all the snow we had as I have a long country driveway. This is the first year I’ve actually been able to use it. Absolute beast! That heavy wet stuff we had earlier this winter was no match.

North Topeka
Guest
North Topeka

I’m going to back away for a couple days and clear my mind. I should have never learned about weather models or this Blog. 🙂 Every 6 hours is like Xmas morning. Well maybe Hanukkah is better analogy, since it’s many days of excitement, with the bag of socks and underwear you never wanted mixed in. Why in the world do I even know what Zulu time is? Stop the madness. I need an intervention and/or a Netflix binge watch session.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy late morning to you sir!! Final check in for the three waves from SW Lawrence. As I said earlier this morning I received 2 inches at my location which is in between Clinton Dam and Lone Star Lake and at school which is right at 23rd and Crossgate we picked up 2.5 so there was some differences in the totals in the Lawrence area. For this final wave I predicted 1-2 inches for Lawrence which wasn’t way off base considering the SW parts of town picked up 2-2.5 inches but since central to east Lawrence received 3-4 and… Read more »

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Lol uhhh I see a typo

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Oops 😬
Hey Bill you can edit
But thanks for the great analysis

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Thanks Inspector and Andrew!!!!

Josh
Guest
Josh

The Saturday storm looks to be a mostly rain with a snowy finish type of a storm. Need the low to dig another 100 miles south to be in the core of the blizzard here in KC. Going sledding with the son this afternoon on Cleveland Chiropractic college’s hill by Antioch & 435.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Moving toward spring. Modelitis prevents many from understanding that yellow ball in the sky and its movement/angle do play some kind of factor in our weather. This will be 50s and rain mark it down.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

3″ of new snow last night, total snow depth around 7″, west Parkville. A nice few snowfalls. Onto the next!

Also, Garrett, in response to what you posted on Monday’s blog, yes, you’re correct. Parkville was at around 22″ for the season at that time by my estimate. Now about 25″. Snow donut. Much to my frustration.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

The March 3rd system is interesting on the models due to it’s better timing than this weekend for the cycle. (I know nothing about the cycle) but everyone said March 1st. LOL. So I remember Remebered that date. Parkville had a snow wholenfirnone if them. The January 11th one. You guys received 4.5 inches where Gladstone got CLOSE TO 9!! What a crazy thing. That’s where the 5 inch seasonal difference lies. I bet that’s a rare occurrence

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

That was an immensely frustrating storm. That evening everyone was talking about how they were an inch or two deep already and here it was still struggling to get a coating at all because of on-contact melting. It wasn’t 4.5, it was 4″ exactly at my house. I’ve also had slightly less than most others on several other events. Really, Saturday night’s snowfall was the only time this season (other than October 14) where the storm total winner was in Platte County. I originally said March 2 for that storm, but moved it back a day because it seemed like… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It’s shifted south from Sioux Falls, SD to near St. Joseph, MO. Only 50 more miles south and northern parts of KC gets blizzard. NAM suggests a fast moving compact heavy snowfall rate system – areas that do get snow would get 2+”/hour. But not as extreme as the FV3 a few days ago! That was just bonkers. 50+” in SD are you kidding me :O Good job Gary on the prediction for the 3 storms! While last night wasn’t the biggest here in Lenexa the cumulative total here was about 7″ for the 3 systems. 4.25″ from storm 1,… Read more »

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

Question, on this possible shift to the south, if it occurs, will it have the same amount of moisture to work with to produce snow?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

You are one of the few on here I actually respect/like. Don’t tell me you are rooting for this………….

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Imagine….snow lovers on a weather blog rooting for a snow storm

Mark Taylor
Guest
Mark Taylor

4.5 inches in west Lenexa

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

looks like Lawrence got 4 inches, and Tonganoxie got 6

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

A famous fictional TV character once said that happiness is just that moment before you need more happiness. For some of us, that means looking on to the next chance of snow the day after a snowfall (not that snow is our only happiness). With that, I give you the next FV3 eye candy. comment image

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

That’s the Blizzard , right about on schedule!
Hope thats the last winter storm of thebseason right there……so over winter. Fields need warmth and dry weather for a couple weeks, running low on hay and need grass to start waking up soon

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Actually, this could be the blizzard. Not sure. comment image

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

look at the Isobars………the second graphic you posed it so much less wind. I favor the first graphic to be the blizzard part of cycle for obvious reasons.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

The Blizzard 🙂 That model shows it as happening just a bit late, I imagine it’ll creep up a bit over time.

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

When does that storm show starting? Any of it come in on 3/2? I am hosting many people from out of town on that day and am curious if I need to start making alternative plans.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Gary, what’s your take on the NWS continuing to paint the weekend storm as a rain maker for KC compared to your thoughts on a possible blizzard setup? Their discussion mentions how tightly clustered the 500 millibar low is across all models….within 50 miles and that it will track nearly on top of KC (on top of KC was actually part of discussion Tuesday).

Do they have modelitis and are not following the LRC?

Hope
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Hope

Gary, How much snow have we gotten so far this winter?

MattinLV
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MattinLV

Wait…what? Gary you predicted 7.2 inches of snow and that’s the exact amount that was recorded? Get outta here!

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Yeah seems terribly suspicious to me. I think they autta raid Gary’s house to see if he’s got a time machine stashed away in there.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Russia, er, I mean Mother Nature collusion!!!!!

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
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Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

Right!? I saw that and was very impressed! I’m surprised more aren’t talking about this.

Screaming Yellow Zonker
Guest
Screaming Yellow Zonker

Gary won his own contest fair and square 🙂

Joshua (Shawnee)
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Joshua (Shawnee)

about 2.5″ here

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

6 inches, snow depth of 8 1/2 inches…

Hoping for more this weekend .

Fred Souder
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Fred Souder

Very nice write-up, Gary, Thanks!

Kurt
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Kurt

4.5 inches 2 miles south of St. Joseph, 3 storm total of 9.5 and season total of 41.75 inches

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

That’s crazy Kurt. Hope the deluge of moisture continues all yr for u guys

FARMERMIKE
Guest
FARMERMIKE

FYI, More Winter Weather Blasts the Region; Concordia Has Received Over 17-Inches of Snow Since January 1st Local Wednesday, Feb 20 North Central Kansas residents are digging themselves out again following another record snowfall for date on Tuesday, February 19th. More than 3-inches of snow fell in Concordia yesterday, breaking the previous snowfall record of 2.8-inches set on January 19, 1959. Since January 1st, Concordia has recorded 17.2-inches of snowfall, which is over 7.7-inches above normal since the start of the Year. Concordia has received 33.1-inches of snow this winter, which is 17.1-inches above our annual average. Another strong storm… Read more »

Malarcky
Guest
Malarcky

I have put on my weather crown and graciously accept my title of BEST WEATHER FORECASTER OF THE WEEK. When I saw the summary and saw Gary right next to my guess I thought I just might have a chance! Hoping for a few more snows before turning to spring storms.

Ross (N. Overland Park)
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Ross (N. Overland Park)

You should change your screen name as well: Malarcky (BEST WEATHER FORECASTER OF THE WEEK)

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Nice call! Skill? You hit it on the dot!

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Congratulations!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Congrats, I am jealous of your most noble and honorable title.

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

Congrats Malarcky! I guess I’ll hand over my self given title of “Best Weather Forecaster in KS/MO Every Week” yours will just be “Best Weather Forecaster of This Week Only” hahahah kidding of course! Awesome job though! If I were you I would definitely change my screen name to Malarcky (BEST WEATHER FORECASTER OF THE WEEK). You all are lucky…. If I would have won I would have jokingly boasted about the award for the next week or so until you all got sick and tired of hearing about it hahahaaha Also congrats to Gary for predicting the correct amount!… Read more »