The Anticipation Builds For The Snow To Begin Later Today

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2:15 PM Update:

The NAM model now is showing the disturbance that the European Model did not pick up on. It is still, as always, a waiting game now as anticipation builds. There are questions that will be answered soon.  You can see the disturbance here:

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Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

Today will be a rather fascinating weather day in and around Kansas City.   We will get to watch the the sky go from sunshine this morning, to increasing clouds, to a lowering ceiling as snow begins to fall to the ground by later this afternoon. I will be sure to set up a few time-lapses.  We currently have around 2.5″ of snow on the ground and we have 2″ to 5″ in our forecast:

Snow Ruler

Sunny shows us the snow depth, the snow forecast, and the final forecast result.  I am expecting around 4″ in Kansas City, so the snow depth will be around 6.5″. We are going to be monitoring closely for that southern wave of energy that may enhance snowfall totals, as discussed in yesterday’s blog and on last nights Facebook Live I did.  It has shown up on some of the models. If there is that southern wave, then around 9 or 10 PM tonight there would be a little comma head moving almost due north up the state line and that would increase totals by around 1 or 2 inches. I just did a thorough analysis, and I do not see that advance disturbance at the moment. It is something we may not see until this evening. So, until I see any evidence, I am in that 2-5 inch range for snowfall amounts in KC, with the chance of 2″ at 100% and the chance of 5″ at 30%.

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These are the maps I showed on my 10 PM newscast last night.  Here is today’s weather timeline in KC:

  • Today:  Some sunshine early today, then increasing clouds. It will become cloudy with snow spreading in from the south, or possibly a lead band forming overhead later this afternoon.  High:  30°
  • Tonight:  A 100% chance of snow, possibly mixing with sleet or freezing rain just southeast of Kansas City.  The snow may become heavy at times with 2″ to 5″ on top of the snow we already have by 6 AM.  Low:  28°
  • Wednesday:  Lingering morning snow showers, possibly changing to freezing drizzle with a light glazing or dusting on top of the snow.  High:  34°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog for more information and to join in the conversation or at least read the comments from the bloggers.  Have a great day.  The evening rush hour may become quite challenging for travel.

Gary

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ClassyCatBill in LawrenceTed in STJClintLrcfan1 Recent comment authors
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ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Gary, what’s your take on the NWS continuing to paint the weekend storm as a rain maker? Their discussion mentions how tightly clustered the 500 millibar low is across all models….within 50 miles and that it will track nearly on top of KC (on top of KC was actually part of discussion Tuesday).

Do they have modelitis and are not following the LRC?

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Every model run is bringing the slight south shift for the weekend storm.

Clint
Guest
Clint

The Euro took a big jump SE.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

Good beautiful freshly fallen snow morning to you sir!!!

Had to get up to let the pooch out so decided to measure. Final total here 10 miles SW of Lawrence is 2 inches so we picked up another 3/4 of an inch after 9:00. It is gorgeous outside!!!!

Have a great Thursday everyone

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Rodney's Clockwork Angels
Guest
Rodney's Clockwork Angels

Bill, here on the east side of Lawrence we got around 4 inches. I was quite surprised when I got up and looked outside.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Rodney: I don’t doubt it all….it looked to me like the SW parts of the viewing area would wind up with the lesser amounts of the forecasted range. I’m about to go out and clear the road so I will measure a few other spots but I am convinced my immediate area picked up 2 inches. Whatever the case, Gary forecast was spot on….he picked 2-5 and never wavered from that and that seems to be the range for the viewing area. Again….love your moniker…..I really liked Clockwork allot when it came out. I know many hard core Rush fans… Read more »

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

EURO came south for the weekend system.

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Euro slams NWMO with 10-15 inches of snow. Energy begins to dive into the the west coast today. Will be interesting to see how the models start to trend tomorrow after properly sampling the storm system.

Natasha
Guest
Natasha

Snowed ended a few hours ago with freezing rain coating screens on windows so can’t see out any more in Odessa, mo.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Last thought for the night… https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2019022000&fh=0
Look at this set up…. this “wave” will be like a wave that produces severe weather in early-mid April with the next cycle.

Good night all!! (Tomorrow will be big in tracking the weekend storm because energy comes on shore over night!!)

Jack in Atch

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

This storm was very underwhelming in Manhattan. NWS was calling for 4-6 inches of snow and we MAYBE have close to 3 inches. Maybe 1/2 more at best if we can get some redevelopment but overall i’m very underwhelmed. Every snow event this year seems to come down hard enough but they just don’t seem to want to last more than 4-5 hours to cause any significant problems.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

I mean if you are still close to 3 inches it’s not like they bombed it… one more inch and it would have been an accurate prediction!

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

I almost doubted my 3-5 inches prediction for Atchison.. but we ended up with 3.5 inches. It really ended up being only a 3-4 hour event which I was worried about on the onset of the storm like I said, but I for-saw a 5-6 hour event earlier today. Seems like 2-4 inches was accurate for the KC area. Great job, Gary!

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Correction…noob measurement apparently Lol. 4.5” for south side of Stj. Just measured over 6” here in South end St. Joe outside my work. Highway 36 from Stj to Cameron has been getting hammered with snow tonight. I’m anxious to see how much I got in Stewartsville, MO when I get home. That really heavy band was just parked over US-36. 6 inches of snow will put Stewartsville at **40.3”** on the Season. And I’d bet it’s over 6 inches. The November Blizzard – 8” Jan 11/12 snowstorm – 8” Tonight’s snowstorm – Likely 6+” It’s exciting getting one 6 plus… Read more »

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

4..5 at 11 9-11 4inches fell…still snow too…6 can be done

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Just over 6 here on Lower Lake Road. Piled up FAST!

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

C I went to bed. I’ve been outside and measured. On clear surface of snowboard a 6 inch snow. I will be melting my snow Core. Just out of curiosity I stuck the yardstick into the grassy area and it was 8.5 inches. We have a snow pack. Also, I looked at the observations from the airport and they have had 0.40 inches of precipitation from this event. We received 0.101 hour last night and 0.17 the following hour and then 0.08. All of that was very heavy snow.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

REEDEVELOPMENT OVER TOPEKA ==not moving or NE OF TOPEKA

12 am S+

Nick
Guest
Nick

Walked home about an hour ago in pouring snow in St. Joe, wow. looks like the big part is about over for us, shoveling soon 😛

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

10-11 S++ 2 INMORE ALL SNOW 4+

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Still getting a good snow in Prairie Village. This is more than I expected today. I also see more snow building in western Kansas headed this way.

Bob h
Guest
Bob h

2.8 inches of added snow in OP really pretty snow

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Onto next storm… people this storm looks like a classic major winter storm IF it can track through southern Missouri and not on top off us. If you compare to the NAM at 84 hours to the gfs and fv3 it is further south and it is 10 degrees colder. Check it out, let me know what you think.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Differences in thermals between the two models is wild. Canadian is south of the GFS duo too.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Why the down votes? Do people not want to go on to the next storm..?

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Heavy snow and sleet mix in Brookside.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Looks like you were right on the effect of the dry slot! I had been watching the HRRR almost every run and it kept sliding it further east and upping precip amounts. Surprising to see it miss since it had been so good earlier in the year. Foodl3 was right on that, too.

Kudos to both of you!

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

I’m not sure I can take credit for mentioning the dry slot. Foodl3 was definitely talking that up though. He’s usually spot on so kudos to him.

Bob h
Guest
Bob h

Foodl3 is wrong a lot to be said it wouldn’t change back to snow and it did

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

S++

Lora B
Guest
Lora B

Freezing rain with sleet mix in Oak Grove. Hope this ends soon! Ice is not my favorite.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Sleet/tiny ice grains coming down hard in Parkville. 2.75″ of new snow as of 10:35pm.

Update 10:42pm: Seems to be some snow mixing back in.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Snow mixing back in here, too. Just measured 3″ on the back deck. Interesting that all the 0z models (and the 3z HRRR) continue to insist that there is a bit more to come with this system.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Really snowing hard as this last area of snow is moving by our house. Looks awesome blowing and swirling around in the outside light.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary just said we might get a blizzard on Saturday

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I heard that too. Holy smokes.

Matt
Guest
Matt

That would be after Rain and one day rest from some kind of Weather.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

2,5 in 2 in from 9-10 if we stay in that tail may be 5-6 narrow band

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Huh?

Craig
Guest
Craig

Next!!
Saturday looks crazy and wild. A very interesting day.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yeah, rain, snow, wind.

Natasha
Guest
Natasha

Gary,
In Odessa we had snow snow with drifting and now straight freezing rain. Ice everywhere!

Lora B
Guest
Lora B

Same in Oak Grove, still… 😕

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Is it just me or is f00dl3 correct much more often than anyone on this blog, including Gary? Honestly seems his insight and predictions turn out more accurate.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Insightful, but wrong as much as some others on here. Including me.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I strike out quite a bit. Never even had a feel for this one. God I was going back and forth from thinking this was going to be a dusting at best to pointing out models showed 6-7″ to now realizing it’s kind of a 1-3 inch-er. I love the emotional ride though that our midwest weather is.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

f00dl3, I enjoy your comments.. you seem to know as much as anyone on this blog. I am math major at Benedictine College pursuing a meterology master’s degree. For someone who does not have any educational background, I think I have a fair amount of knowledge myself– I have met up with Gary a few times and we have talked about the trolls on the blog and you certainly are not one of them.

Brian K Hart
Guest
Brian K Hart

No you are wrong. Now go to bed

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Foodle is great and I enjoy reading their posts, but I wouldn’t say they’re really more right on their predictions than some of the others on here. So, it’s just you.

Heavysnow
Guest
Heavysnow

Massive snowflakes falling in Ballwin (outside STL) at my house right now

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=TWX-N0Q-1-12# Is this swirl moving up I-35 what we call the comma head? If so the comma head is already upon us and moving ~40 MPH to the northeast. Precipitation is scattered in the comma head, not solid, and back edge already passed Emporia. After this passes I see no new development until the rear part of the storm gets here. Now if this is the comma head near Goodland we think will move this way that’s a great though but again most models show the snow over western Kansas dieing out as it gets near Salina at least in… Read more »

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

I think it is the comma head.. the vort max is in southeast Kansas.. with the dry slot directly to its northeast and it pushing moisture up to its north. It is going to give area just north of kc another 2-3 inches of snow.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

that may be me

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I don’t even know if I’d call this a comma head. More like a spinning area of scattered snow showers. But in Spring this could be supercells rotating around a cold core upper level low kind of like we had was it 2010 or 11 when there were several weak tornadoes in Overland Park. :S

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Yeah, I would not either.. but the vort max is most definitely in southeast Kansas.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Also if were under a Greatest fret Risk for Tornado’s.

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Right about 3″ here, still coming down nicely, although sleet has mixed in.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Over 500 comments. This blog will shut down if this next iteration of the November storm hits us again.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Dumb post

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

How so?

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

The vort max seems to traveling in great position to put area from kc and northward in good snow the next 2-4 hours! 1.5 inches here in Atchison.

Freezemiser
Member
Freezemiser

Wow…507 (with this one) comments on this blog post! Sleety and snowy in east Independence. Fort Osage schools are out tomorrow. I hope the roads get cleared early…I have an errand to run!

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Is it bad that I don’t want them to be clear until late morning? I don’t wanna try and treck downtown for work. 😂 Knowing my car, I legitimately probably won’t make it out of the parking lot LOL.

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

I’m really beginning to wonder if Gov is using chem trails again to reduce snowfall amounts. From their perspective, chem trails are cheaper than snow removal. The downside is that they’re making us all retarded. Just ask my uncle Ray Ray.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

She’s breaking apart Captain!

maple85
Guest
maple85

Did you not listen to Gary at 8:45? The storm isn’t ending. There’s still bands that are gonna come throughout the night.

Brian K Hart
Guest
Brian K Hart

Nope

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Heat Miser, we still on track for 6”?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

We are on track to make me very VERY happy for this snowfall this winter. More to come too…WOO HOO!!!!! Fyi – we are WAAAAAAY over six inches for the winter.

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Heat how much snow we gonna get this weekend?

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Do you seriously have nothing better to do with your evening than harass him?

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

No kidding. I don’t get the hate and down votes and harassment of Heat.

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

This “dry slot” talk is rubbish pushed by fools and knaves who can’t read a simple chart. You are only seeing the previews now. The main attraction hasn’t even begun. This will be a monster snow storm. At least 8 inches by tomorrow morning. Mark my words.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

🙄🙄🙄 Apparently the downvotes isn’t enough of a clue for you to realize you’re not funny.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…losers with nothing better to do than troll weather blogs…doesn’t get much more pathetic than that.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Kevin, looking forward to storm chasing season so it will give you something to do

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I could see 8 inches total on the ground tomorrow cumulative from the past week.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Comma head 👍

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

no comma head

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

*coaxes* Come this way, dear comma head.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Lees Summit schools just canceled for tomorrow.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Wow, the storms keep on lining up! One this weekend, then Gary just said another one next week. This winter, and all this snow, has been awesome!!!! :-O

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

Rain this weekend ending no snow HEAT sorry to disappoint….

Brian K Hart
Guest
Brian K Hart

Lots of snow this weekend. Mark my words

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Heat Miser is such a troll. Ignore him.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

On the contrary, Heat is one of the best commenters here.

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Disagree. Heat Miser is an obvious troll who tries to hype for his own enjoyment.

Brian K Hart
Guest
Brian K Hart

You are

Bob h
Guest
Bob h

Ugh stupid graupel ruining the snow

Wx Enthusiast
Guest
Wx Enthusiast

I think it did help with traction though. Just drove home from the plaza eastbound and although the roads are entirely covered it was much better than the last event, which I was also forced to drive in.

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

When I look at the future radar it shows the snow redeveloping on the back end and shows us still in it at 3am. Is the future radar incorrect? What’s all this talk about a dry slot, if the radar is showing otherwise? I hate to even ask this question because it seems like the annoying commenters are out strong this evening.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

that is lite snow 1/4 inch an hr for 4 hrs is … one inch or it turns to drizzle

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Gary said some of the models are predicting the storms keeps up all night until 7/8 in the morning. Maybe more bands of snow/sleet will form.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Still seems to be all or nearly all snow in Parkville.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

900 pm moderate snow in STJOE

Dylan
Guest
Dylan

Sleet mixed in around 8:30 in grandview and hasn’t been primarily sleet ever since. BAsed on radar, looks like precip could be on its way out. Pretty interesting. I was under the impression this would linger well into Wednesday morning. Even if a coma were to form and swing through, my guess is precip should be over by midnight? Just my observations.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Major Dryslot reporting for duty Sir!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Legitimate question – If the HRRR is such a great short term model why does it goes to poop when the event is underway. If you look at the 02z HRRR for example it shows the KC metro getting 6-7″ of snowfall – but if you look at the radar view it looks like the radar does now, but the problem is that the precipitation in the HRRR radar view is nowhere even remotely near the intensity that would be required to create the snow totals the HRRR wants to give us provided the HRRR 02z run shows precip ending… Read more »

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

it did not take into account the dry air that ate away 2-4 hrs of mod to hvy Snow that is 2-4 inches

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

000 FXUS63 KEAX 200249 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 849 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 .Update… Issued at 849 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2019 Water vapor imagery shows the upper level dry slot moving into the region from the west. IR imagery with cloud ice color curve shows has a showery appearance to the clouds in the dry slot so there will likely be some mixed freezing rain/drizzle/snow/sleet within this dry slot that will spread northeastward through the remainder of the evening. Based on reports and dual-pol radar data, mixed precipitation is… Read more »

John
Guest
John

You guys are crazy saying it is almost done snowing, how can it be almost done when Heat Miser has been calling for 4-6″ for 2 days now?

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

see above NWS reduced STJOE FROM 4-6 TO 2-4 all we have is a dusting…

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Literally 2 straight days! Poor kid never gets any sleep, probably why he’s so bitter!

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Lol!!! Heat Miser gets it wrong again!! I said 2” and he questioned that estimate. Too bad Heat!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol..you seem absolutely obsessed with being miserable. Never, ever said that, as you well know. Said Gary said amount could go up a couple of inches fs comma head comes right over us, which models were showing signs of last night. I’m sorry you are so miserable…mabye blogs aren’t for you: LOL On the bright side, this snow has been gorgeous…and the depth plenty to make me happy…WOOT!!!! Smile and enjoy instead of thinking what negative comment you can make next, this storm is awesome.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Have you looked at the comma head? It’s like 10 miles wide with 1/4″/hr snowfall rates… lol. Even the 02z HRRR that gives the KC metro 7 inches of snow shows the comma head as a very light flurry band.

Brian K Hart
Guest
Brian K Hart

Hrrr is a horrible model. Just listen to Gary. Says it keep snowing thru the night. He knows more than you

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Gary said, but Gary said…maybe he can comfort you with a Facebook live lol

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

Heat, you were insisting on 4-6”. I hope that verifies for you. I was saying 2” back around 4pm based on radar. Do yourself a favor and do the same. It’s not hard.

MattinLV
Guest
MattinLV

Im hearing random sleet against my windows in downtown Leavenworth. Its mixed in with the snow that is coming down.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So judging by the NAM and HRRR trends, I don’t think precipitation will change back to snow after it changes away from snow. Snow’s probably over where your getting sleet or graupel now.

Beekeeper
Guest
Beekeeper

FWIW – It was graupel in Waldo and then changed back to snow.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Will be interesting if the dry slot stops just south of city.