Another Winter Storm Is Approaching

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Good morning bloggers,

Is this wearing you out at all?  The storm systems just keep coming, and there never seems to be a break.  For many of us, this is something we need to enjoy and take in one minute at a time, so stop and take a deep breath today and let’s try to enjoy this next storm as it moves in. Now, there are many people out there likely on the other side of the spectrum of getting enjoyment out of this storm.  One of my new neighbors slipped and hurt his leg pretty bad a couple of weeks ago, so I know he is ready for spring. And, anyone who had a stalled car or who has been impacted in any car crashes, well, I am sure they are not enjoying this winter ride.  There was a 47 car pile up on I-70 west bound near Oak Grove Friday with one fatality.  So, quite obviously there is an ugly and horrific side to all of these weather events.  We will keep that in perspective, and at the same time the only thing we can do ourselves is be extra cautious and provide a lot of extra time to get around.  Travel problems will likely be developing once again on Tuesday night.

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Sunny The Weather Dog shows us the snow left on Sunday on the Plaza. I was down south, near my old neighborhood in southern Overland Park last night, and there was half as much snow down there.  The weather forecast game continues, and I have posted the entries at the end of this blog.  Kansas City  had 3.8″ at KCI from storm #1 and 0.5″ from storm #2, for a total of 4.3″ at KCI Airport.  The official recording location, however, is in front of our 41Action News studios at 47th and Oak Street. We had 4.2″ from Friday’s storm, and then 0.1″ from yesterday’s graupel shower and little snow and freezing drizzle mixture.  So, the official total is also 4.3″.

The Set Up:

1A rather unique weather pattern is setting up for this storm system as we can see on the left. There is a strong 1040 mb (30.71″) surface high forecast to be located over northern Iowa by 6 AM Tuesday.  This high is dominating the nation today and tonight a drier & cold air expands out over most of the nation.  At the same time, there is a surface low beginning to form by early Tuesday morning over the Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast.  The interaction of the high pressure area and the low pressure area is causing a broad southeasterly flow of warm and moist low level moisture as a big source of energy for this storm system.  In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a series of waves are will begin affecting the precipitation pattern, and this is a rather complex set up.

  • Look closely at the 540 thickness line, the blue dashed line just above the last red dashed line. This is quite often the rain/snow changeover line.
  • The surface low needs to be monitored closely as it will track north in this set up
  • The main upper level energy will track just west of Kansas City over central KS into northeast KS Tuesday night.  In most of our snow set ups over the years, this would be a bad track for KC as it would draw in the warmer air and dry slot.  It is something to look for.
  • There is an important wave that will likely emerge and organize and come out of the farther south regions over Baja California and track towards southwestern Missouri or southeastern KS Tuesday night.  This part of the pattern produced such a wave that created a comma head of precipitation producing a band of heavy snow with large snowflakes in the last LRC Cycle. This wave has shown up on some of the models

4

That wave of energy I am pointing to on this map comes from southern Baja California, and races northeast. This may have its own comma head associated with it, and if it does, it could produce 2″ to 3″ per hour snowfall rates in a fast moving lead band. One hour of that would produce a majority of the snow in some areas.  So, as you can see this is quite complex, and it is just a day away and we have a lot of questions.

2

This FV3 GFS model is trying to track that surface low along that inverted trough and this would draw warmer air northward. The 540 thickness line would be approaching Kansas City from the south at midnight tomorrow, and this model even shows a changeover from snow to sleet and a mixture approaching the city.  This would happen, though, after the lead snow bands move by, and this is why confidence is high on at least 2 to 3 inches falling before the changeover may occur.

We often tend to ignore how close the rain/snow changeover line is to your location.  And, it presents another trick to this snow forecast.  The heaviest snow is often just north of this changeover line. It is forecast, on this model, to end up near the Iowa border by 6 AM Wednesday with a surge to above freezing at the surface and a change to rain.  Now, this is the most aggressive of this possibility, and I just wanted to present it for something for us to monitor.

3

Here are some of the models snow outputs as of 5:30 AM this morning:

rgem_asnow_us_54

gfs_asnow_us_10

fv3p_asnow_us_10

gem_asnow_us_10

namconus_asnow_us_19

f5weather-21

The European Model had the warmest solution and least snowiest solution, the map immediately above. All of the models have 2-3 inches at least in KC, and confidence is high in this range. This storm has some tricks up its sleeve, so let’s keep monitoring it.

Snow Accumulation Probabilities:

  • No Snow:  0%
  • 1″ of snow:  100%
  • 2″ of snow:  100%
  • 3″ of snow:  70%
  • 4″ of snow:  50%
  • 5″ of snow:  30%
  • 6″ of snow:  20%
  • More than 6″ of snow:  10%

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with a little sun possible. North winds 5-10 mph.  High:  25°
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy:  Low:  19°
  • Tuesday:  Dry most of the day with a 100% chance of snow moving in from the south later in the afternoon or evening.   The evening rush hour may be a complete mess if it comes in just a bit early.  High:  30°
  • Tuesday Night:  A 100% chance of snow, possibly heavy at times.  Accumulations of 2″ to 6″ possible. It will become a heavier and wet snow with temperatures just below 32°
  • Wednesday:  Snow ending, possible mixing with or changing to rain before ending.  High:  34°

Here are all of the entries for our Weather2020 Snow Prediction Game.  The winner gets the honor of being the Weather2020 Best Weather Forecaster Of Week!

Screen Shot 2019-02-16 at 9.52.24 AM

Screen Shot 2019-02-16 at 9.52.50 AM

Screen Shot 2019-02-16 at 9.53.26 AM

It is interesting as the  average snowfall prediction is 6.86″.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation and see what everyone is thinking about this approaching storm. The discussions have been better than ever!  Have a great day.

GAry

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Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

SNOWING in Lawrence, and it is beautiful!

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Overnight models definitely backed off a bit.

Steve
Guest
Steve

Last LOL.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I think the timing still looks on track – earliest i see it arriving in KC is around 4:30 PM. All the echos out there now are virga – but that’s a good sign because that means our atmosphere is already saturating many hours before the snow is expected to start.

Mandy in Raytown
Guest
Mandy in Raytown

Any updated predictions on the timing of the storm? Hoping I’ll be safe at home before it starts!

f00dl3
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f00dl3

06z runs kind of came in less snowy – 3″ tops for KC

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison

Uh, what about the nam?? Nam came in with a solid 4-5 inches for kc.

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

Gary, that was the funniest Facebook Live you’ve done in a long time. “Come on, LINDSEY!!” Lmfao. I was dying LOL

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

LISTEN TO ME LINDSEY

David Pollard
Guest
David Pollard

Radar echoes already showing up and moving northward. Interesting.

Frankie
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Frankie

Anyone know where Kaden went? Dude just vanished

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

doing homework? lol

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

You are Kaden.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

GARYs map just showed 4.0 for the city, in line with NWS forecast.

John
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John

Yes he kept the most likely scenario in the 2-4″ range, which has been the forecast all day.

Garrett
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Garrett

One model defintely isnt enough to up the totals. Must be frustrating considering its timing. Like it obviously can be widespread 5-6 as the nam has shown this once before, lost it, and it has come back (very NAM like this season). BUt the 2-4 was consistent up until about one hour ago.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yeah…he said add and inch or two to the earlier forecast…Im thinking widespread 4-5 inches throughout KC….it looks to be getting that little wiggle out front that will possibly add that extra inch or two. LoL…Gary was really excited about it on Facebook Live.

Let It Snow 88
Guest
Let It Snow 88

Looks like 3 inches tops. I hope I’m wrong. I would love to see 6+

Alexander
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Alexander

All the models are showing 3.5-6 inches for KC minus the GFS.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I think Lawrence has a shot at 5+ inches.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056
Garrett
Guest
Garrett

We know the potential this thing has, landing in the metro would push totals over 30 inches. And thats way conservative. Direct hit? I like don’t even want to talk about that scenario considring the heaviest totals that have been shown. Point being, what a winter.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

It wouldn’t surprise me if it drifted south sort of like the blizzard did after Thanksgiving

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Quite a few places in metro are already at or slightly over 30.

John
Guest
John

I think he was talking about just for the storm this weekend would be over 30″?

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_024h&rh=2019021900&fh=138&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Just leaving this here. Regardless of if it happens, that’s just an insane thing to see on a model only six (really five) days out.

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

That’s 300+ miles North of here

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Bring it!

Garrett
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Garrett

No I was talking about the season. I’m only at 24 ish as Gladstone was a sweet spring in he thick wet snow. We got 9.5 inches total that day. Parkville is around 21-22ish I think.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Oz gfs if that system this weekend moves a bit south we are in a decent snow.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Gary, about that little wave, is that what is producing that cool looking northern end band that expands out east over the metro before the ulk of the system is over uscomment image

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Seems like the cmc is close to the nam in regards to snowfall potential amounts.

Screaming Yellow Zonker
Guest
Screaming Yellow Zonker

Where is Gary’s snow vest?

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Just food for thought, GFS, FV3, and other models basically besides the NAM have had wishy-washy handles on the system up until. The pattern this year has been the NAM catches something and the other models eventually catch up. We are 24 hours away, Im more skeptical this close with GFS, and FV3 or anything other then short term. Not too mention the FV3 hasnt even come out minus the one person who consistently is saying, and spewing wrong information for the dramatic effect. I will avoid names as I had to edit this considering info I read was wrong.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

Anyone else noticed how bright the sky has been at night the last few days? Snow is reflective!

Morgan
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Morgan

GFS models both trended a bit down with snow. We’ll see who wins out soon enough.

Dale Gribble
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Dale Gribble

Based on the data I’m seeing and what informed people are saying on the Ham Radio channels, I am officially forecasting 12 – 17 inches of snow Tue – Wed. You heard it here first.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Six inches of heavy wet snow will spell the power outages. Not thrilled about that at all.

Matt
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Matt

More Branches down to.

MattinLV
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MattinLV

So would 6″ be a decent chance for Leavenworth?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Okay, hes thinking about upping his snowfall percentages before the ten oclock news. Looking like wide-spread 4-5 inches might be a good bet

John
Guest
John

Still said 2-4 was the most likely scenario though, so nothing really changed.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

nope…he said he might up his totals a couple of inches. Joe L. just did…he has wide spread five inches, with six in Lawrence with his new numbers

John
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John

I don’t really care what Joe L. did, and saying “thinking”, and “might” doesn’t mean that Gary is definitely going to up his totals.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I guess we will see in a few minutes when the news comes on.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

except that he just said he is seeing the wiggle that he was looking for and may up the totals a couple of inches. Try to be more happy…you seem miserable.

John
Guest
John

Not miserable, just tired of the continuation of crappy weather. I work outside 40+ hours a week and this is the longest winter ever. From slipping on ice and snow to it being cloudy and cold everyday for weeks. There have been 6 or 7 decent days of weather since the beginning of the new year, and most of those were on the weekend. The other 4 winters I’ve worked outside at least had brief warm periods, which is much more enjoyable when you have to be outside. I guess you wouldn’t know since you are on a weather blog… Read more »

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Hilarious!

JOSH
Guest
JOSH

I like the graphic where he uses Sunny in the background and gives percentages of each inch. It’s really helpful.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

The nam has come out very snowy.. and here’s why I think why.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=scus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2019021900&fh=18
Look at the tiny notch in southeastern Oklahoma.. I don’t know if this is the wave from Baja, California that he was talking about, but this wave is stronger than previous runs… something to watch.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Jack,

yes, the recent run picked up on the wave and is what I was watching for.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

there’s your twist

CraigMac
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CraigMac

Gary is live now

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Oh…Gary just tweeted out he will do a Facebook LIve in a few minutes…and he said the new data is very interesting

LSMO77
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LSMO77

Gary is going to be live on Facebook shortly.

Terry
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Terry

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=ncus&pkg=asnow here’s a Nam ooz model you can look at You may have to put it into motion the bar to see the snow amounts!

Shoedog
Guest
Shoedog

As stated last eeek 6 inches plus is a lock as I am in salt lake this week and when I leave town we generally get a big snowfall . You can all thank me Wednesday. Have fun and stay safe

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary unusually quiet on twitter/facebook/blog on the night before a snow storm…hmmmm

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

maybe he is analyzing the new data

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

You would know wouldn’t you Mr. Passive Aggressive?

John
Guest
John

Maybe he is working on getting his forecast ready for the newscast?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Im sure he is, but he usually does a Facebook Live around 8:45

Terry
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Terry

He on Facebook live now

Joe
Guest
Joe

Doesn’t sound a little stalkish?

Dave in independence
Guest
Dave in independence

J.R. and Lora B looks like we could get pretty close to that 7.7 inches mark. I believe we are sitting at 4.3 inches right now for 2 out of the 3 storms? Should be close 😀

Lora B
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Lora B

Unless that Baja mess makes it! It’s been fun to watch!

Dave in independence
Guest
Dave in independence

Lol our prediction relies on that 1 little wave. Pretty fascinating.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

NAM 3km looks very SNOWY also

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Joe L. agrees…says latest data looks more bullish on snow amounts…thinking about upping his prediction to widespread five inch amounts from his current four inch model thru out kc

Joe
Guest
Joe

It’s one inch….you are unbelievable….I could see if he was upping it 2-3 inches but it’s one inch….I enjoy snow but you are scary over the top with it!!!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LoL…oh, quit being such a drama queen

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

NAM has widespread 6-7″ totals, I would think they would include KC in the WSW very soon if this trend continues

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hmmm 00z nam gives us 6″+

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

And is why I commented earlier that this system may have a surprise. Now, lets see how and IF it materializes

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Joe K knows. He’s usually right.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

new NAM looks SNOWIER

Paul
Guest
Paul

Link??

Jim
Guest
Jim

A man who claims that patterns recur throughout the year told us that a, “rather unique weather pattern is setting up…” Are we just going to gloss over this? 🙄

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

I think that is what Gary then goes all to explain in detail in the rest of the blog post.

Mark
Guest
Mark

Are you new here?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Jim, Do you work for the media? I only ask as you “cherry picked” a portion of his statement and that is what the media is famous for. ” a rather unique weather pattern is setting up for THIS storm” See how that has a much different meaning? Although the pattern is set and cycling, the systems and pattern react differently each cycle. Influences change with the seasons and as such, change the dynamics of each system as they cycle back around and much like the statement Gary made, this is a unique storm system setting up based on the… Read more »

Jim
Guest
Jim

Oh, so that patterns recur as unique and different patterns. That makes sense.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Gary England understands.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

STJOE is 80-90 mile south of IA border 43 miles to downtown KCMO and MCI is a A 30 minute drive from STJOE — ain’t darn near in IA and Maryville is 33 miles south of IA. 36 hwy bisects STJOE .

Heavysnow
Guest
Heavysnow

Local STL stations have been off by 4 to 8 degrees on forecast highs the past 4 days, so its hard to believe anything they say lately.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It sure is easy to spot wildlife in the snow. I am watching ten deer strolling down the valley and four others coming up the valley to join them. We had our usual visitation of 15 quail in the yard earlier today. The pair of quail that frequented our yard through the spring and summer had thirteen hatchlings. We’ve watched them grow from the time they aere small dots (the so-called bumblebee stage), and the whole family has remain together ever since.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

comment image

More realistic IMO

Matt
Guest
Matt

Better added 36 Highway into WSW.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

I live half block north of 36 hwy – many people don’t realize that it bisects STJOE west to east. NWS needs to use a different marker for north MO like hwy 136 in Nodaway and Holt counties …. if this map were to be correct STJOE would have 13 in north and 10 south … a big snow

Logan
Guest
Logan

Would be crazy if this verifies, that’s a ton of snow!

John
Guest
John

According to this we still get 2-4 tomorrow, and maybe an inch or two out of the storm this weekend.

Grambo624
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Grambo624

Feb. 25.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary and Joe L. going 3-5 for metro, with 6 inch amount possible to the north

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Lol when is his Facebook Live?

Joe
Guest
Joe

He is going to have one just for heat….personal Facebook live…personally he is on here so much he needs to see if he can be a part of the 41 weather team!!!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…trolls seem so jealous…absolutely hilarious

Joe
Guest
Joe

Yes very jealous I don’t spend my entire day on a weather blog!!

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Gary,

I am getting the feeling this system has some surprises in store for us or as you like to say, ” a few tricks up its sleeve”? I am not buying into the model runs at this point

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Kind of surprising that Gary is somewhat going conservative on totals… basically said 2-4 inches (He didn’t quite clarify where that was going to be, but I am assuming that is just the metro area). Gary, I really miss when you would make your own snowfall maps.. they were very clear and showed exactly what you thought on specific snow totals.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Thats not right, I just looked at KSHB Facebook. He has both KC and Lawrence right in the middle of a 3-5 inch swath. That was posted about 30 minutes ago

Joe
Guest
Joe

1 inch is the differnce between 2-4 and 3-5…it’s an inch…is an inch going to make a differnce if this is a good storm or not…wishcasting hype in full effect. But Gary said, but Gary said….did you ask him if he was doing a Facebook live for this massive 2-4…errr….3-5 inch snowstorm? All the grocery stores are already closed due to being out of food…try next week…the storm this weekend will be rain but I bet places will be closed due to the rain…it could be slick in the rain? If I look at the sun my eyes will burn… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…nobody seems to be having a conniption but you….we are just having a back and forth. LoL…take a deep breath and calm down….it will be fine. Stop trying to inject fake panic and pandemonium into the blog…it’s silly and rather boring.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

2-4 or 3-5 both can be a correct forecast with 3 or 4 inches …..

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

No, it is right. On the 5:15 news he put his percentages for each total amount and the highlighted the 2, 3, and 4 inch marks and said the totals mostly lie in that range.

Choppy
Guest
Choppy

Who’s to say that’s conservative? Do you know something he doesn’t?

John
Guest
John

Everything I have looked at has said 2-4 inches, maybe isolated 5 inch amounts, so how is that being conservative? I will leave it up to the professional to tell me how much it may snow.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Gary, Are the percentages you show for snow amounts for a specific location or for the metro as a whole?

Troy
Guest
Troy

The weekend storm looks interesting. Right now most of the Snow would be over Nebraska but it looks really heavy and this one appears to have a lot of wind where a Blizzard is possible. I’m sure the track will shift around a bit between now and the weekend.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Wouldn’t that be funny if the Navy model, of all models, gets this weekend right. comment image

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

NWS predicting 4.5 inches max for 66208 zip. 2-4.5 range.

Inspector
Guest
Inspector

Good lord, reading the comments today and all I keep saying is some bloggers seriously need to lay off the computer/phone and find a ho by!

Joe
Guest
Joe

I agree!!

Steve In excelsior
Guest
Steve In excelsior

Latest nam really likes the idea of snow especially along and north of I -70, has 6-8 inches will be interesting to see how this one plays out. One thing I like is that it’s definitely a more dynamic storm rather than last Friday’s (wave of energy)

Jessi K
Guest
Jessi K

Can you please share the link? Curious how south that 6-8 inch line is.

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

The 6 to 8 inches will be further north. Up near st. Joe and the Missouri Iowa border

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

STJOE is 80-90 mile south of IA border 43 miles to downtown KCMO and MCI is a A 30 minute drive from STJOE — ain’t darn near in IA and Maryville is 33 miles south of IA.