The Wild Winter Weather Pattern Continues

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Good morning bloggers,

The WWW pattern continues, or rather the Wild Winter Weather pattern.  This has been just one functional storm after another, and KC has been impacted. We are in the part of the cycling pattern that was active in both previous cycles of the LRC.  And, in the next week we are going into the part of the pattern that produced the St. Louis 9″ snowstorm.  We called it “The St. Louis snowstorm part of the cycling pattern” because of how rare it was to have any accumulating snow so early in St. Louis.  They officially had snow on the 12th, 14th, and 15th for a total of 5.1″ officially, and 9″ in the St. Louis metro area.  Farther west, Kansas City had 1.3″ on November 8th and 0.5″ on November 12th for two early measurable snows as well.  This part of the pattern included a wet storm on November 4th to 5th which is what we are experiencing today.  The “St. Louis snowstorm part of the cycling pattern” is what comes in between Thursday and Tuesday.   We will discuss this below, as most of the models have a rather substantial snowstorm in the area within one week from now.

The Current Weather Pattern

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This years LRC continues to produce very cold air.  Today’s upper level flow features a rather unusual ridge aloft stretching from west of Hawaii northeast to the North Pole.  This ridging is allowing for high pressure to continue to be generated over Canada. This causes clear skies and light winds way up there, and it is dark at this time of the year all day and night. This provides the conditions for radiational cooling, and thus the build up of the Arctic air and the maintaining of that cold Arctic air mass.  And, there is a strong southern branch of the jet stream.  A storm is moving out into the plains today, and this can be traced to the November 4th storm that produced significant rain in the KC metro area then, and it is again today.

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 6.16.01 AM

Snow was reported at KCI Airport at 5 and 6 AM as an area of rain moves in from the south and changes over to a winter type north of downtown KC. This storm is so close to being a major winter storm in KC, and it will become one just north and northeast of KC.  A solid area of rain is moving in as I am writing this, and the rain/snow line is shifting north. Some spots within 30 miles of the Iowa border of northern Missouri will see accumulating snow today.  And, then it will be onto the next part of the cycling pattern.

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Within the next week, this next part of the cycling pattern is right on schedule. Now, for KC, remember, we did have two small snows from this system as the energy went around KC and blasted St. Louis. We will get, what Gary England 10 years ago explained the LRC as, “The Same, But Different”.  The same pattern will produce its February version of this part of the pattern.  It fits the LRC perfectly, is right on schedule and has been in our forecast for this next week for months now, and the specifics of what will happen will be realized within a week. Take a look at the European Model solution for one week from now:

f5weather (2)

And, here is the FVS GFS model:

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Both the European and the FV3 GFS models, and other models match up as well, show this storm being bigger and more wide spread than the November version. The December version of this storm was very wet just after Christmas, and I have confidence that a very wet storm will form when this begins developing later this week and moves out into the plains in less than a week.

The WWW pattern continues.  Spring will be quite sweet and smell so good when it gets here. For now, it is a wild winter weather pattern that will continue until further notice.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: A 100% chance of rain.  Snow and sleet up north of I-70 will change to rain, with snow accumulating just a couple counties north of KC.  3 to 4 inches of snow are possible 50 miles north of KC.  High:  34°
  • Tonight:  Rain tapering off to dizzle, then a chance of some snow before it ends early Tuesday. The winds shifting to the north at 10-20 mph with temperatures dropping to below freezing, around 28°. Some refreezing is likely with some slick spots.
  • Tuesday:  Some sunshine breaking out with north winds 10-20 mph. High: 38°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny. High:  53°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to learn more and share in this weather experience. So many of our weather enthusiast friends are helping add insight and fun each day, so thank you for you participation.

Have a great day,

Gary

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f00dl3
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f00dl3

Kind of glad the bike trail slush froze over solid this morning – made it a lot easier to navigate. Yesterday afternoon my rear wheel even with studded tires was slipping constantly on the slushy goodness. Much more consistent grip on ice this morning.

jcling64056
Guest
Kaden
Guest
Kaden

that first one is a lot

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Those are last night’s runs. The 6z aren’t quite as impressive. Let’s see what 12z does.

SnowBadger
Guest

My poor kids and their Teachers May go into Summer with all the make up days needed! I’m still hoping for a daytime heavy major winter snowstorm. No rain that changes to freezing rain, to ice, to sleet, but just heavy half dollar size snow flakes coming down at a rate of 2”-4” every half hour to hour. I know, I know……..wishful thinking. This SnowBadger will have to wait until the first week of March when we head out to Lake Tahoe to see a lot of snow to shred!

Have a good night ya’ll!!!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Joe L. just said hes getting really concerned for a snow storm on Friday

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Really??

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I don’t know what Joe L is smoking but NAM doesn’t show diddly squat on Friday. GFS shows 3-6″ Sunday with maybe a dusting to an inch late night Friday. GFS FV3 is the outlier with 4-6 Friday and several shots of 1-3 every few days after. I think the LRC would suggest we may get a dusting to an inch while the main storm hits St. Louis next Tuesday/Wednesday – then next weekend we get clobbered with 6-10″ of snow.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Lol

Clint
Guest
Clint

Join the discussion…The Euro and FV3 are almost a match on the weekend systems.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

How incredible has the LRC been? For those of you that have kept a calendar, you know how these systems have cycled through like clockwork. For those that are confused by the LRC, yes, each cycle has looked different and is expected due to seasonal influences. With that said, I personally, have mapped out the storm systems for the next 6 months and will be eager to watch it play out. We have 2 major storm systems coming about 4-6 days apart starting end of Feb/first of March. Still much to learn about the LRC, but sure is fascinating watching… Read more »

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Crazy weather !
Record high waves, flooding and rare snow hits Maui !
Gary when will the LRC be used to predict weather world-wide ?

https://theprovince.com/news/world/hawaii-snow/wcm/14095527-3076-44ec-9840-a390a99188c0

Joe
Guest
Joe

It is already being used nationally

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’ve been told that its usefulness is diminished outside of the westerly belt.

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Trees beginning to sag here around Stewartsville, MO. They definitely could’ve issued a freezing rain advisory up here. Easily over a quarter inch of ice accumulation. 36 isn’t too bad, but there is definitely some slick areas

Clint
Guest
Clint

Same thing happened down here in Warrensburg, we had nearly a 1/2 in of ice before they issued an Ice Storm Warning. We had also received a glaze of ice before we were added to the WWA. NWS has drank a large glass of suck.

Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

yep last is going by now

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Some LRC-based theorizing for what the models show.

In November, the November 8 snow event was warmer than the November 12 snow event by a few degrees.

In December, the December 26-27 rain event saw highs in the 50s on both days and a low above freezing. The December 31 rain event hovered near freezing the entire time, and in fact briefly switched to snow for a while around noon that day.

Based on this, I’ll argue that we have a much higher chance of seeing snow from the 18th-19th system.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The weather in this zone 25 mikes north of Manhattan began as rain, then switched over to a rain-sleet mix, but it turned to snow at 3 PM. It is 32°, and large snowflakes are falling now (3:14 PM).

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

That snowstorm blew over quickly — lasted only 40 minutes, but dropped 3/8″ of snow and turned the landscape white again.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Not sure if anybody has noticed this, but past few weeks we have had models saying the following week would feature a big snowstorm. Well, most of these did NOT pan out. We got a storm of some kind sure, but now, suddenly we are falling for the old “next week a big snow storm is coming” routine? I am not buying this , not one bit! Now, I do feel like we have 1 to 2 more bigger snows in store for us but I just think we have seen this same song and dance from models so I… Read more »

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Was just thinking this. Here in Leawood we haven’t had over an inch of snow since January 12th.

Jeffg
Guest
Jeffg

Last week it was supposed to snow 8 inches on Tuesday based on models from the previous week.This week was supposed to be a week of big snows and that has not come out as predicted by models from last week. The models just haven’t been accurate out that far. I like snow, but I am learning not to get excited about a storm until its at least just a couple of days out.

SnowBadger
Guest

A couple of days out? How about 4-6 hours out! LOL

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

I agree Hume, to much uncertainty at this time. It’s going to be an interesting Spring. I will say that I am glad that we are getting moisture from these storm system and we aren’t facing another dry winter/spring.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

As far as the upcoming growing season, I am not scared of a dry spring that’s for sure! What I am concerned about now is TOO much precip! From rancher perspective its usually never too wet for great grass to grow, although farmers may find hard time getting the crops planted. Also, a lot of wheat around this year compared to years past as the prices came up a pinch last year. Wheat isn’t so tolerant of excess moisture, so it could get negatively impacted by all this precip. Always fighting something!

Araignee
Guest
Araignee

Also makes it hard to cut and bale hay if it is too wet.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Yes, it’s always the same…..but different.

Spooky
Guest
Spooky

I don’t recall a February forecast 2 months ago. Maybe someone can refer me to that forecast. Asking for a friend.

Araignee
Guest
Araignee

I don’t even want to think about more snow. We still cannot get out of the driveway (250 feet long, all uphill), nor down the road, which is downhill and a sheet of ice. Sleet on top of ice just made things a lot worse. Saw a UPS man half sliding/ half walking down the side of the road, no idea where his truck was, since we are on a rural road. Don’t know if he parked it at the main road and walked or if he got it stuck and had to hike out. He just kinda crept by… Read more »

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

so relate able

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

starting to get some accumulation on trees, the sleet from the other day is still not melted from walks not treated or the grassy areas. Cars parked in parking lot all day long still free of ice. Concern would be when now with some light to moderate accumulation on some but not all tree limbs if the wind becomes a factor we could have some power issues. We did an hour with temperatures of above 32° to melt away the limbs.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20190217-0300z.html

EURO teasing today, good to see this model produce closer though. Lets see. CMC was more bullish, along with GFS. Liking the alignment. Does this shift confidence Gary, or is it still too far out? I take it as a sign, and a step in the right direction, but far from the result we all want, yet.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

that shade of purple on the euro map may look impressive. If you look at the legend below that shade of purple is up to 4 inches of snow or 4 inches or less.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

I actually think it means anywhere from 4-5.9 next shade is 6, I THINK I could be wrong Im not looking right now but I do know what you are referring too.

EDIT 1: yes that shade of purple represents 4 inches minimum all the way up to 6 inches possibly. So a range nothing exact. 4-6 would be a nice storm, nothing we havent seen before, and a surefire shot away from the 11-16 inches some models have produced. BUT this is the first time euro has placed those heavy amounts over the metro.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

i agree as i looked at it again

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Any updates on snow chances for Tomorrow?

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

if it snows, less than 1 inch

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

our chances look low for snow this week, but next thursday may be a hit

Jack
Guest
Jack

Gary, here in Atchison we are right on the border line between no snow and 4 inches…. I’m leaning in the direction of a dusting-inch.. what do you think?

Rich
Guest
Rich

I miss the exact time stamp that the blog used to have. The ‘3 hours ago’ or ‘4 hours ago’ makes it difficult when there are multiple reply threads like today.

Roger
Guest
Roger

I hate how the Wichita NWS and local media described last Wednesday’s storm. They use terms like “pounded” and “hammered”. Huh??? For only 0.05-0.10 inch of ice and 0.5 inches of sleet or snow in spots? Just because there was thunder involved in brief convection. C’mon man. They are conditioning us to be mamby-pambies!!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

We did get hammered in Vernon Co last week….about 1/2″ of solid ice on everything. Biggest ice storm we’ve had in well over 10 years.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

In looking at the radar and the water vapor imagery this event is nearly done,there is additional development in Oklahoma but it is moving due eastward. Due to installation of new radar we do not have the capability of looking at the Wichita Kansas radar. Topeka Kansas, Goodland Kansas and Oklahoma City do not show any additional development that could come into the area. Hopefully, for everyone the temperature will increase to several degrees above freezing at least and reducing the immediate impact so that people can get home from work safely. As for these 108 or 144 or 186… Read more »

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

9 inches of snow in Dallas next week?comment image

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I can see this happening. Previous versions of this storm brought snow/ice in a swath from OK to STL. With the jet stream reaching peak strength in February, that would only support an even further south shift.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

If that happened it would be the 2nd-largest snowfall ever in Dallas:
https://www.iweathernet.com/dfw-weather-records/top-20-snowstorms-dfw

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Those totals will likely be far less…8 days out we know this is likely wrong based on the history of these models.

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

wow!

Heavysnow
Guest
Heavysnow

I lived in Dallas area when I was a kid and we were supposed to get hammered by a snowstorm…..it went south and dumped a foot of snow on San Antonio. We got a dusting if I remember correctly.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

And 18 inches in Mississippi? Not a chance, lol. They may get snow, even significant snow, but it won’t be 9 inches.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Aaaaand … no surprise it’s gone with the latest run.

shoedog (Leawood)
Guest
shoedog (Leawood)

Good news for next Tuesday storm. I am flying out to Salt Lake Monday Night. I too have a little bit of the Lezak Leaving Town curse, have missed a few good storms through the years when I have had to travel. So forget the models, the fact that I am leaving is far better predictor.

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

My weather virgin eyes, are just sitting here hoping one of these models predicting “10-15″ inches over the next two weeks ic correct. I know it won’t be correct” on totals, I mean correct in terms of producing something at all lol.

JimT
Guest
JimT

Gary,
Isn’t next Monday’s storm to far out to tell what may happen?

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

not when you are using the LRC

BSMike
Member
Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

That would be interesting, for sure…

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I mean, it’s possible if temperatures stay low, and the cycle would support it. North KC got a similar amount of snow (~1″) on November 8.

Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

The high today is only 34, now, as compared to 37-38, as forecasted earlier. So, I guess it is possible that the temps crash below freezing, bringing us more snow.

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

The problem with that is, all of the snow it calls for in and near the metro would occur with temps above freezing.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

For those needing a visual …

comment image

Hi-res NAM doesn’t show that though.

Kaden
Guest
Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

I wouldn’t be surprised if this shifts north and we are left with little or nothing.

Kaden
Guest
Kaden
Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

Dont trust models 10 days out. Just last week it was showing 18 inches for our area tomorrow.

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

oh, ok

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Bingo.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

those 10 day snowfall maps are meaningless..they are wrong all the time. Last week it showed 19 inches for us this week

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

At 8 AM we have freezing rain appear. Started approximately 630 is light sleet and freezing rain and immediately turned over to all freezing rain. Untreated sidewalks and streets are extremely hazardous. Treated roadways at this time seem to be okay. One or 2° colder than the 31° we have and it would be a huge mess everywhere. City crews and private contractors are putting down salt and it is being washed away. When the temperature falls if streets are not retreated there will be new problems. Of course as we get into this time of the year their are… Read more »

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Only a few more days to spring, March 1st!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

March 1st, when The Blizzard comes back! 🙂

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

how do you get the forecast for so long out

Dustin TheWind
Guest
Dustin TheWind

Kaden, the LRC is how we get the forecast so far out! None of the models are going to show March 1st at this point, but we know that blizzard will be coming back

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

As heavy rain……………warming is coming and soon, folks.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

closer to a few weeks

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

Is the LRC limited to knowing when and where the storm will track, or, can you know which cycle will be warm and which cycle will be cold? That is a very key piece to the puzzle. My example is last year. How do we have such a cold month and such a hot month back to back. How can you predict it?Is it a combination of the pieces of the puzzle, such as the AO, ENSO, etc? Let’s have this discussion, spring is right around the corner what is going to happen?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I totally agree with this. When our LRC started developing in October and November we were so cold! It was just unreal – with so much moisture I even made the bold claim that we may see 60-70″ of snow given the amount of storms we had coming through. But then December and January happened. I actually took 3 weeks of time off to try to enjoy snow right after Christmas because that was what I had read earlier (maybe my error on recognition – thought we had running back 38 at the time) – but that entire 3 week… Read more »

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I feel like October and November never quite manifest exactly the same way as the rest of the year. We saw that the last time around with 2017’s wet October, and we seem to be seeing it again here, but with temperature this time.

Here’s a thought though. If warmth comes back a week or two into March, that’s the same point in time at which it arrived in December. If that happens, maybe we can expect the return of below-normal temperatures around April 20?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

If this does happen than we are going to have some early Spring severe weather setups, some late season cold rains and/or mixed precipitation to snow events such as last winter and 2015(?) when we got 1″ of snow in May, not necessarily severe weather setups until we get back to the warm part of the pattern again which will be a problem because that will come at the peak of MCS season. And with as wet as the storms are, either way it pans out flooding is a strong possibility. I would almost place money based on what happened… Read more »

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

The snow was May 2 2013. You keep hitting on the 1993 parallel. This winter reminds me soooo much of 1992-93 now. Fingers crossed we don’t see that persistent upper midwest trough that produced the 500-year event many of us lived with (mine was working right on the river) but we are going to almost certainly see some significant flooding anyway because of how high the MO and MS are with massive snow melt up north to come.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

I’ve had my eye on the last few days of April for quite some time now. The October 14 (earliest snow on record) part of the pattern returns then. Could we have an impressively late snow too?

Mike H
Guest
Mike H

So true, I think you would have to solve all of the main influential entities (AO NAO ENSO SST PDO TOOMany). It would be like going from 1D to 3D–a huge leap. This is a reply to original F00dl3

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Yes and know. While Gary and team have a higher profile of information, they can make a better determination of the factors that are involved. As far as last year, the collapse of the cold and straight to almost summer warmth was not forecasted. To be honest, I don’t think anyone saw that coming. I have an link I can provide at the end but basically the the “polar Vortex “(lol) got so big , without wobbles, that it drew warmer air in which then created the conditions to collapse. Once it reorganized, mid-late July, things began to normalize, if… Read more »

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I think the proper meteorological term for today’s weather would be, “Yucky mess.”

One downside to all this nice, wintry weather is, the population of potholes has exploded exponentially. I have never seen so many massive potholes popping up everywhere as I have in the last month or so.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Snow- I agree the potholes have been crazy this year. I would like to know how much money is being spent on this winter weather just on damaged vehicles not only form wrecks but also potholes. It has to be way up there. And I can’t completely blame the municipalities for the potholes, because the weather has not been cooperative to even address a lot of them.

Lincoln
Guest
Lincoln

I blame taxpayers of Missouri for not supporting a tax increase to improve our highway system. The pavement is in terrible condition and needs replaced, but until that happens all you will get is patch work and more potholes. Citizens of Missouri didn’t want to pay the extra 30.00 in taxes a year, so they could spend hundreds of dollars a year in car repairs. There is a tax calculator that Missouri provides to show what you would have spent more in taxes which is nothing compared to the dollars and time lost getting our cars repaired.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I don’t think the gas tax increase would have any bearing on fixing potholes. Fixing potholes is a short-term, municipal and county-level issue. A gas tax increase would be for long-term projects funded by the state. Furthermore, as Honeynut69 noted, there’s simply no way cities and counties could keep up with all these potholes at this point, they’re popping up too quickly and conditions have been horrible for fixing them. We’ll basically have to wait until the spring until cities can get a chance to start working on them. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are still a lot of… Read more »

Lincoln
Guest
Lincoln

It has a lot to do with if you are repairing potholes on 10 to 15 year old pavement that should have been replaced years earlier. We aren’t repairing potholes on newly paved roads. 15+ years ago we were patching I-70 between 7 Hwy. and 291Hwy. 7 days a week and haven’t needed to patch since. I-70 from 291 to the state line has never been replaced and we are patching everyday and without the revenue you’ll be dodging those for at least the next 15 years. Also, local and county municipalities budgets comes from state revenue.

Rowdy Ace
Guest
Rowdy Ace

Lincoln – I couldn’t agree with you more!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Agreed. I can not remember potholes this bad since when I learned to drive in 2001.

JOSH
Guest
JOSH

Yeah I reported a “bad one” to 311, but good luck with getting it fixed, been saying this about the potholes for the last couple of weeks! The freezing, thawing, freezing, rain, snow, sleet, it’s played havoc on the streets and roads!

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

i dont think so….. quite yet, but i get your gist

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

First and come on Spring!