Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good Sunday bloggers,

As Gary blogged earlier, this first system formed a bit farther north than we were thinking. 1/2″ to 2″ of snow occurred in northern Missouri while the KC area received a period of freezing rain/drizzle. Any untreated surfaces will be slick, especially the surfaces that already had ice on them. Surface conditions will improve this afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing.

5

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Temperatures will rise to the mid and upper 30s under a cloudy sky with some mist.  All surfaces will begin to see improvement. Tonight will remain cloudy with some mist and lows 30-35. So a few locations could see refreezing.

1

MONDAY MORNING: The next storm system arrives with rain. Northern Missouri may see some freezing rain/sleet/snow as the precipitation starts, creating more slick conditions.  If KC drops to 30°-32°, then the precipitation would start as freezing rain. This would create slick spots at the onset of the precipitation. However, we expect the temperatures to warm quickly to above freezing Monday morning.

2

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Periods of rain and drizzle are looking likely with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. We could see .10″ to .50″ of rain. This not only washes off the messy salt, but the roads with ice still on them will improve quickly. A mix is possible near the Iowa border where highs will be in the low to mid 30s.

3

TUESDAY MORNING: The storm will race by midnight to noon Tuesday. Colder air (not Arctic) will rush in on northwest winds gusting to 40 mph. The rain will likely change to snow before it ends. Right now we do not think there will be much snow. But, we have to watch this closely for a quick burst of heavy snow and some accumulation. The storm will be in the Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon allowing the sun to return and winds to diminish.

4

Wednesday will be a nice day followed by a cold blast and the next system Thursday-Friday. We will focus on this in a few days.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

97
Leave a Reply

avatar
42 Comment threads
55 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
45 Comment authors
BSmikeJohnf00dl3Blue FlashJohn Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think we are done with true Arctic blasts for the rest of the season GFS shows this well – we may drop to 16 next weekend maybe 10 if the cold air is stronger, but I don’t think we will drop below 5F any more this winter.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

The temperature is 32 here in Independence, but the rain is not freezing on contact. Even on the parked cars.

BSmike
Guest
BSmike

32 is also the melting point!!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So they dropped the Winter Weather Advisory. Guess this is going to be a non event.

John
Guest
John

Good. I’m not even sure why they issued one to begin with, again. It has never gotten below 34 degrees all night at my place, and there was no precipitation.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Maybe it’s Gary’s Curve ball theory – the curve ball is that we get just rain for a change.

John
Guest
John

Hopefully that is true. Will make it much easier to get into the 50s in a couple of days.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Just dropped to 32 in Lees Summit. Not good news with all the heavy fog.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Just dropped to 32 here in PV KS.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Foggy and sort of misting in Parkville now.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Just wish it would drop 5 more degrees tomorow

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Bob H did you get dropped on your head? For God’s sake man hope for warm enough temps to help these iced in people out. We’ve had our fair share of ice and snow, pray for people that are hurting to get relief, parents that have endured crazy kids schedules with snow days, missed work. It’s been an awesome winter lovers winter. Hope for some break for those suffering

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

So what did Gary mean by the storm having “tricks up its sleeve?” Should I go through w/ my snow mobile purchase?

Logan
Guest
Logan

Why wouldn’t you? Snowmobiles are jetskis for land. Endless fun.

Shoedog
Guest
Shoedog

Wow suddenly foggy in Leawood

Choppy
Guest
Choppy

Under a dense fog advisory till 9am as well now.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

I just looked out to 240 HR’s which is 10 days out & total snowfall ranges from 8-14” for central MO on the GFS, FV3-GFS, Canadian, & CMC. The European even shows 6”+. Lots of consistency for snow really piling up on several models over time by Feb 20th. Wondering if we’re entering a snowy part of the pattern. The weather channel even has snow chances all but 2-3 days over the next 10 days or so for Boone County. ❄️❄️❄️

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

The 0Z GFS took most everything away after Tuesday for this week, there’s too much variance past even 24 hours with this part of the pattern. Your fantasizing and most likely won’t get 1/3 of that.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary tweet two hrs ago: It’s still slick in many areas and even more slippery with a little melting today. Another storm approaches and it has some tricks up its sleeves!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Hmmm…tricks, eh?

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

Go to bed

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Naw…shhhh now

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

Old man it’s bed time. You gotta troll this blog all day tomorrow

Menarda
Guest
Menarda

Currently 32 at my house in Lee’s Summit south of 50 at Todd George. Pretty sure it was supposed to be warmer does that mean it will be colder than forecasted, thus increasing winter precip chances?

KSA
Guest
KSA

Car- temp 31 in LS. Not supposed to hit 31 until midnight here. My car is usually spot on. Is warmer air pushing in with the storm?

John
Guest
John

It is always strange with southeast of the city is colder, but I guess since we did not get anything up my way the last week. It is 35 here at 169 and 152 and the low is supposed to be 33 up this way at midnight and the temperatures are supposed to warm after that, so once again why a WWA.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

comment image

Matt
Guest
Matt

To much here.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Meaningless…similar map showed 19 inches here ten days ago

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Yep…according to the 10 day (240 hr) maps, we get about 180″ of snow each winter.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

lol

Randy D
Guest
Randy D

WWA just issued for Douglas county

KirksvilleDave
Guest
KirksvilleDave

Kirksville got 1” of snow this am.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

What’s up with wwa. Thought we were just getting rain.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Agreed. Temps are so far staying 3-5 degrees colder in the metro than forecast for today. The sun goes down in two hours, so I don’t see us getting to 37-38 degrees at all. So much for melting the sheet of ice in our neighborhood streets. Makes me wonder if it will also drop lower tonight than they had forecast… therefore, maybe the uncertainty leading NWS to include us in the WWA. Earlier, they said it wouldn’t get below 33 degrees tonight. They’ve already dropped that to possibly 31. We will see!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

I fully expect a WSW to be issued by tomorrow lol. that is how it has been this season

Lewis
Guest
Lewis

Why u say that

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Tuesday. IF the comma head get’s it’s act together.

Choppy
Guest
Choppy

Yeah, this is getting ridiculous. Finally got my properties ice free. They only mentioned rain this morning. Thought I was finally gonna get a breather. Forecasting must be difficult.

Araignee
Guest
Araignee

We have been stuck at home in Excelsior since Wednesday. Our road is a hilly sheet of ice and when we tried to leave the property yesterday we just slid sideways and gave up. The county is not going to show up to do anything to it. Ridiculous is a good word for this winter. I am sick of it. How many more days of this before we can get out to get supplies? How many more days of work will I have to miss? Things will get ugly when I run out of coffee! Not to mention the fact… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

What kind of horses? Only kidding only kidding. Hang in there spring will show up for u guys soon. Not so certain up here. We are Getting our avg yearly snow in Feb. Long cold hrs being put in.

Araignee
Guest
Araignee

You know it is bad when we consider saddling the horses to ride into town for supplies. When that seems easier than trying to get a car down the road.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I misread your post..lol..I thought it said horses not house…old eyes…. regardless, hang in there!

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Its faster to melt a foot of snow than an inch of ice.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

It says little or no ice accumulation, little or no sleet accumulation, and low around 32. So what exactly is the danger?

Joe
Guest
Joe

Hype…that’s why…good for clicks and ratings

Terry
Guest
Terry

Nope some mixed ice/snow

Nate
Guest
Nate

You guys ever try to forecast without your model porn?

John
Guest
John

I don’t think anyone tries to forecast without models? I don’t know what your point is.

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

Lmao!

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Got a wwa alert on my phone from 3 am to 9 am monday!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

comment image

new NAM

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

the NAM seems a bit colder?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

At this point I pretty much disregard all models except the euro and the Nam. They have done an excellent job!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

Nam and other models only seem to get their act together only 24-36hours before a storm most of this season. Seems like every storm has been that way. wonder why?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

That’s why I like the euro for mid range and then look to the Nam as we get closer to an event. They have been a good combo this winter.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

FV3 to pick up hints far out, Euro as you get closer, then NAM.

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

EURO showing at least something a little closer to home finally, still a northern track, but at least it’s budged on this no snow trend for the last couple of days/week. One more, Im happy with one more considering I have no idea what to look for in terms of the actual potential of that happening.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Rumor has it there will be a significant snow storm here before end of month.
Who said it ? my lips are sealed 😬😆

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Lauria said it on air last night. The LRC says it will happen just after the end of the month 🙂

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Holy s#%t ! Lol
PGA in Pebble Beach blasted with hail storm!
Guys out there trying to sweep it off with broom…they need a zamboni out there !
Sun coming out now. Hail will be gone in a few

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Well….stopped again. Another cell coming through there. Crazy weather

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

The trend on the NAM to my is obviously very good.. each run it has it go just a little bit further south. It now has the low tracking in southern Missouri, but not really getting its act together until right as it passes us.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019021012&fh=48

If the storm would dig just a bit more and be stronger than the light snow that it is trying to put over kc area would be much heavier and would be directly in the comma head… the trend is good people!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

dig…DIG!!!! 😉

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Keep it out of here and let the warming begin!

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

What’s good about that?

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image Canadian model for Friday February 15th 12z

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

The latest big storm that won’t materialize.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Sunday to you sir!!! We got lucky here in Lawrence this morning with the temperatures. At 6:00 AM this morning it was an icy mess outside…worse than Wednesday in the rural areas of Douglas County. If the temps did not rise above freezing by 8:00 AM it would still be interesting outside. We actually had a heavier band of precip come though my area early this morning than on Wednesday night…we dodged one this morning. I have not looked very much at the precip outputs in the models but have been focusing on the track and strength and… Read more »

Jake Pro
Guest
Jake Pro

Am I the only one who is thinking we may be done with the accumulating snow for the season? Not a bad season, but wish we could have gotten a bit more. KC always in such a frustrating spot for systems. Things gotta really be JUST right.

John
Guest
John

Why are we still under a WWA, is the NWS not allowed to cancel them early? It seems to me that there was very little precip. with this system, and now the temperature at my place is above freezing, but they keep it going for no reason. 3rd WWA in 2 weeks where nothing happened up my way.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

The low for Tuesday and the storm after that take perfect tracks. Just nothing to show for it.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

It needs to get its act together just a little bit earlier and go a bit further south to draw in more cold air.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This zone 25 miles north of Manhattan got 3/8″ of sleet topped by freezing rain overnight, and a bit of the 1/2″ of sleet that fell Wednesday night still lingered. It is currently 33° and the forecast says we should hit 41° today.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

19 days until spring.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Spring starts on 3/21, so more like 40 days

John
Guest
John

Winter started a month early, so why can’t spring do the same? Sunny and warmer weather is coming, but I hope it is soon.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Not possible. Kansas City has never had a snowless February followed by a snowless March. In fact, only one February on record had 0.0″, February 1892, and then March 1892 had 5.7″. Every February that recorded only a trace of snow (there are 8 total) was followed by measurable snow in March, with the exception of one, in which snow fell in April instead. We will either have snow again or have a significant statistical outlier. You decide which is more likely.

…Wow, that’s a lot of data in one comment.

John
Guest
John

I would just like some warm sunny days for a stretch of more than 36 hours. When is the last time that happened, back in mid-December. Once again for that works outside 40 or more hours a week this kind of weather gets old quick. Of course for some people that work indoors, or just sit behind a computer in the warmth all day want more snow, but I’m over it already. Not saying it will not snow more this winter, just throw me in a week of 40’s or 50’s.

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

There she is. I knew she couldn’t lay off the computer for very long.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Nope

Matt
Guest
Matt

It’s already Spring but mother nature says it’s still Winter.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

The FV3 while it looks like a good track shows the accumulating snow just north and east. Not sure if we will get frozen. This system this morning moved quickly in and out which I assume is why Jeff posted the new blog. Hard to keep updated with these fast moving systems

Czardonkey
Guest
Czardonkey

Woohoo more snow

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

1/2 inch of snow here near St Joseph, season total about 32.25 inches give or take a dusting lol

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Go home Winter. You’re drunk.

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image FV3 GFS 06z looks to me a good track some snow look where the low is at.

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image Old GFS 06z It looks to take a perfect track for some snow the low.

Mike H
Guest

What happened to the snow we were supposed to receive last night? “We’re moving on to the next system” you can’t comment on what happened? “We’re moving on to the approaching storm”. J Pennichick

Elaine Watson. McLouth
Guest
Elaine Watson. McLouth

He did comment on what happened.

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

We don’t talk about the past lol

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Uhhh…”this system formed a bit further north than we were thinking”. Doesn’t that explain it?

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Gary wrote a short one this morning before this one by Jeff. Go back and read Gary’s

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

He already commented that it tracked farther north than anticipated

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

He said it moved further north than they thought it would

Mikeyc11@hotmail.com
Guest
Mikeyc11@hotmail.com

We got about 1 inch of snow up here in Maryville Missouri

Mikeyc11@hotmail.com
Guest
Mikeyc11@hotmail.com

First?