Winter Weather Advisory, Active Weather

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Good Saturday bloggers,

Our next winter event arrives after midnight tonight as a Winter Weather Advisory has been put in effect for all of Missouri and extreme eastern Kansas. This is being caused by warmer and more moist air racing north along with a disturbance or two heading northeast from the Pacific Ocean. The disturbances are being kicked northeast by a larger storm on the west coast bringing a ton of snow to Seattle. This main storm is strong and will affect our weather Monday and Tuesday. So, let’s go through this wild weather.

If you are headed out today or this evening it will be dry and cold with existing slick spots.

1

SATURDAY 6 PM-MIDNIGHT: It will be dry, cloudy and cold. Wind chill values will be in the teens.

2

SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM: Precipitation will rapidly increase. It may start as a mix of snow, sleet and freezing drizzle with temperatures in the mid 20s. So, all surfaces will instantly become slick.

3

SUNDAY 3 AM-6 AM: This is the main part of the event as the precipitation should change to mostly snow with a mix south. The snow may be briefly heavy.

4

SUNDAY 6 AM-NOON: The precipitation will rapidly end from southwest to northeast 8-10 AM, so that by noon it is cloudy with some mist possible. Temperatures will rise above freezing which will help crews treat the roads and any surfaces untreated will get a chance to improve. Periods of drizzle will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening. If temperatures slip below 32, then the drizzle becomes freezing drizzle. This is something we need to watch.

5

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL: We are expecting less than 1″ south of KC due to more of a mix. 1″-2″ is possible from KC and points north. There may be pockets of 2″-3″ across northern Missouri. The amounts may adjust up or down in your location, based on if there is more mix than snow and/or the precipitation area ends up bigger or smaller. This is something literally forming in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. So, it is always tough to forecast something that does not exist and that is forming overhead.

6

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING: The next round of precipitation comes streaming north. Right now it looks like rain/drizzle for around I-70 south with a mix to the north. All locations will see rain by noon Monday. The KC area could see some freezing rain/sleet early Monday for a short time if the precipitation comes in faster or it is a few degrees colder than we are currently forecasting.

7

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Periods of rain are likely with temperatures 35°-40°. A snowstorm will be occurring along I-80. Rainfall amounts will range from around .10″ to .50″ in our area.

11

TUESDAY: The storm will rapidly track into the Great Lakes. This puts our area on the southwest quadrant of the storm, which means very windy conditions and a chance for a period of mostly light snow. Temperatures will drop into the 20s. Now, we must watch this closely, because if the storm tracks south by a state or 1/2 of a state, then our area will see much more snow.

9

The crazier the weather, the tougher the forecast.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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Mr. PeteFred NolanJOSHJustinTerry Recent comment authors
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JOSH
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JOSH

Radar echoes starting to increase and strengthen in central Ks. I will go with 1-3″ for KC.

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

Dusting at best.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

I agree – seems like intensity is picking up.

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

FV3 brings it back! (knock on wood)

Terry
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Terry

comment image GFS 00z south track And I would think this would means more snow?

jcling64056
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jcling64056

latest FV3-GFS!

6-10+” for KC

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019021000&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_c&p=snku_024h&m=gfs_fv3

I thought it would trend back to snow

Justin
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Justin

Bring it on!

Ryan
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Ryan

Missed Gary at 10. Can someone recap?

Morgan
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Morgan

GFS is weaker and further south for Tuesday. Definite southern trend today.

Ryan
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Ryan

Am I mistaken in inferring that the Low looks to track in a favorable spot for snow on Tuesday per the 0z GFS?

jcling64056
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jcling64056

yes, but we would need some colder air it seems

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It’s been consistently a bit colder than models project this season. If it’s heavy enough we don’t even need to be below freezing. Cleveland, OH got 14″ of snow in April 2005 with the temperature at 34-35 the whole time.

Terry
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Terry

Yes but it seems that the old GFS model is always a little warmer that some models show. Just like the other day it was with that storm. Yes its is the perfect spot and track now for snow. Let’s see what happens next I still dont think the ride is done yet for winter weather on Monday/Tuesday now.

Adam
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Adam

Ugh with the GFS

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden
Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol..like it has any idea ten days out. Ten days ago I believe it showed us with 19 inches of snow on the ground

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

It did, the thing is, I’ve seen a snow hole in that shape before. January 11-12 storm, everyone got 8+ inches while Platte County only got 4.

Kansas City winter paradox: How do south Overland Park and Lee’s Summit, OR St. Joseph, always seem to hit the snow jackpot with every single storm?

CraigMac
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CraigMac
SnowCommander
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SnowCommander

Is just me or does anyone else have the same issue: when I go look at a map or something and hit the back arrow…I get sent to the beginning of the blog and sometimes to a different day all together??

John
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John

I am ready for a warmup. Winter has been great but the last month and a half winter has gotten old in a hurry, especially with working outside. Really cold and snowy or icy conditions make it much more difficult and it has been weeks since there has been decent weather during the week. I hope the 50’s later this week happen because it will feel great.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Snowmageddon in Seattle:
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/two-snowstorms-down-big-one-maybe-yet.html
Check out the photo of the line at the supermarket. :-/

Morgan
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Morgan

Seattle might end up with more snow than us this winter. Long range modeling looks very favorable for them.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

This zone north of Manhattan finally went above freezing. It is currently 34° and the forecast says we’ll hit 37°.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The high temperature reached 38° here and 39° at Manhattan, but only 28° at KCI (roughly the same latitude).

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Brought the kids to the Wisconsin dells to escape the cold today. It’s a beautiful 85 degrees in here and negatives on the other side of the glass. I highly recommend checking this place out. A ton of stuff to do to escape the cold.

Freezemiser
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Freezemiser

We love visiting the Dells! Have fun.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Thx freeze

jcling64056
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jcling64056

shave 4-5 degrees off the forecast temps, then bring the storm further south(both of which seem very possible), then we will have a snowstorm in KC

jcling64056
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jcling64056

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=500wh&rh=2019020912&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

as shown here the storm is JUST onshore, so lets see what the models do with it

jcling64056
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jcling64056

currently 23 degrees in Independence……it was suppose to get to 31-32 today…..just throwin that out there

Steve In excelsior
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Steve In excelsior

I feel the same way we have seen most storms trend south within 3-4 days before it hits…

Kstater
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Kstater

The HRRR and Rap seem to show tonight being a nonevent.

Choppy
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Choppy

You’re gonna cause a revolt on here with that kinda talk.

thetophat
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thetophat

Don’t mess with the snow psychos…………..:)

Ryan
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Ryan

Do any models show tonight being more than a dusting? NAM, FV3 and the 2 you mentioned above all show next to nothing

CraigMac
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Trevor
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Trevor

Technically when Gary says it will snow, flurries count.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Technically Gary (KSHB) has said 1/2-2 inches of snow

Rodney
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Rodney

This persistent trough doesn’t appear it’s going to move anytime soon and be anchored over the middle of the nation, the FV3 GFS brings several systems through overthe next 10 days and really piles up the snow. I think we’ll see a little bit of everything from rain freezing rain sleet and snow. ❄️❄️❄️

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019020906&fh=6

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Cmc 12z also piles us up over the next several days with snow.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

This persistent trough will be a HUGE issue come late Spring and early Summer if it stalls a frontal boundary out for several weeks.

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

That means flooding issues, right??

matt
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matt

More Severe Weather chances.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Primary threats flooding with secondary threats severe weather.

thetophat
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thetophat

Same scenario played out in 1993. Never, ever will forget that experience…………..closed my workplace on the mighty MO for six weeks.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

February 9, 2019 — The Weather Channel: “Heavy rain and an increasing flood risk are ahead in the already waterlogged Ohio and Mississippi Valleys early this week. In addition, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop in the South.”

ftp://ftp.library.noaa.gov/noaa_documents.lib/NOAA_historic_documents/WB/Bulletin/Bulletin_M.pdf
The 1903 flood
Page 4, Causes of the flood– The flood of 1903 owed its inception to a series of heavy rainfalls during the month of February
Page 30: Kaw Valley

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

How intense? 1993?

thetophat
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thetophat

If true 1993 analog here we come………….

EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

There’s the February 18-19 storm, right on schedule with the cycle!

thetophat
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thetophat

That Gribble guy told y’all…………

Ryan
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Ryan

Latest GFS-FV3 showing a dusting through Wednesdaycomment image

Ted in STJOE
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Ted in STJOE

Up here about 3 in tonite….then monday real early 3-4 in the am then a lull and nooniush on another 5-7 total 8-11… then we wait for later in the week tooo.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

You really think you’ll get 8-11 from the 2nd storm? I think if you were another 150 miles straight north and then east from there you’d have a much better chance of that. I’m just not seeing that in St. Joe and especially not for KC, but hey, just an opinion.

Ted in STJ
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Ted in STJ

Yes I see that. Storm will just further south and it will hook putting us into the timer head as it moves North by Northeast. I really see this is a big storm for her up here. As I stated at the end of the last blog. Several days of every model has had everything to warm and everything has eventually moved south and cooled off 8 to 12°. With this event all we need is 5° cooler than Bangor we get whacked and if it’s not snow it will be sleet and with .75 liquid equivalent a good amount… Read more »

Jeffg
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Jeffg

This has been one of the oddest winters I can remember. We have had winters of very little snow, and maybe some rain, but very few with such a mix. I really appreciate the Jeff & Gary for trying to make sense of it all.

JOSH
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JOSH

3rd lol

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

So much for getting a short mow in anytime soon. Ground is frozen and so soggy. Even when it thaws, you sink on the grass. Going to be a while before doing that. Ready for winter to be done and some drying to occur. Guess I need to head out of town again for nice weather.

Johnny
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Johnny

The longer I can delay mowing the better

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

But then the spring rains will come.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

First