“The Trough That Doesn’t Move” part of the cycling pattern

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Good morning,

Sunny Snow

Sunny The Weather Dog shows us that it is nearly impossible to make paw prints in the sleet.  The sleet, freezing rain, snow mixture added up to 1.1″ at KCI Airport and this makes this years total already more than the past three winters combined:

12

14

We just reached 28 days with snowflakes this season. I will have to add up the past three winters total. Maybe numbers guy can do that for me before I get to it later in the day.  And, now the weather pattern is on some something, as it is a bit wild and crazy.

I titled the blog “The trough that doesn’t move” as Jeff Penner and I coined that phrase for this part of the pattern that cycled through in November, again in December, and for a third time right now. We are in that part of the pattern. Oh, the troughs are moving, but in this part of the pattern they seem to move into the central part of the nation, and then suddenly there is another one moving into the central part of the nation the next day, then three days later, and then again.  Then, the “St. Louis snow storm part of the pattern” followed, and then the “blizzard part of the cycling weather pattern” followed that a couple weeks later.  So, hang on for this ride.  We have a series of storm systems to track, and the next one will zip by on Sunday.

Sunday Morning:

3

2

These two maps show the latest raw data output from this mornings first model in, the NAM.  A warm advection pattern sets up, and I need to analyze some more models first. As you know we have had a 60% chance in there for Sunday morning early. So, let’s see how this sets up. This would be a rather quick band, and if it forms early enough some accumulation is likely. And, then we will look at a stronger storm early next week.  This system may get its act together either just before it gets to KC or just after it gets past us. So, it will be an interesting next 48 hours.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  It is FRIDAY!

Gary

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Ted in STJOEStl78(winon,mn)Rodney’s Clockwork AngelsRickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)Gary Recent comment authors
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Ted in STJOE
Guest
Ted in STJOE

It will snow Monday night rain not freezing rain. All season long every single forecast at this three day or so timeframe is under estimated the temperatures. Look at the ice and sleet that fell. Three days out it was supposed to be mostly a rain event turning to freezing rain. At least north of the river and west of I 35 it was an entire ice and sleet event.

Rodney’s Clockwork Angels
Guest
Rodney’s Clockwork Angels

Looks like a snow / mixed event. Not a large storm. Just a nusence to deal with.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

At least it falls on the wknd! We once again fell to -11 last night. Hoping to make it out of the single digits today

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Wwa for u guys

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

what are your current thoughts on Mon/Tues Gary?

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

Is the farmers almanac as accurate as some say it is?

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It’s useless. People only think it’s right because of confirmation bias.

Ted
Guest
Ted

good 2 use in the outhouse -no more Sears catalog

JC Joe
Guest
JC Joe

I would like to set up a home weather station. Any thoughts from the group as to who makes a good one?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I use Accu rite. It’s my second one and have been very plzd with them

JC Joe
Guest
JC Joe

Thanks! I will check it out.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

this is one of those storms where things could change quickly, stay tuned!

Jk2
Guest
Jk2

Exactly. It was just earlier this week that Wednesday was predicted to be above freezing with rain (by some models)…then we ended up with an Ice Storm Warning!

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Man this back and forth stuff is agonizing
Lezak just said it would end early Tues morn. Rain, not heavy snow event as he hinted at 5 pm
New data 🙄 Lol

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

he also said right now we are on the edge and stay tuned. He doesnt know yet.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Very true Things can change very quickly at the very last minute as we’ve seen it before.

Ted
Guest
Ted

we get 8-13 in of SN up here….

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

At 5 Gary mentioned major storm Mon night/Tues. morn.
Getting ready to watch him again

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Gary showed mostly rain Monday/Tuesday on his 6PM forecast.

Matt
Guest
Matt

It might change again at 10pm and on Weekend.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Yeah I posted that abive. New data 🙄😁
Oh well. But its ok by me. I have to drive down to Paola for the day on Tuesday.
Was hoping not to have to dig out early before going.

Terry
Guest
Terry

And snow to

Josh
Guest
Josh

At this point, I don’t care one way or the other. It can either happen or bust. We’ve got more snow this year than we have the past 3 combined! Think about that for a second. I’ll take 1 blizzard, twice where the temps were around 0 and a total snowfall for the season around 20″. I’m ready for the 100’s, bring them on!

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

I would agree with this if 3 hours away wasn’t supposed to get epic snowfalls. It’s one thing to have the region missing out. It’s another to just barely miss.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Does anybody really want epic snowfalls?

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

Lol yeah the guy that lives on here does

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Well …. I said February would either be really great or really frustrating for KC. Looks like the latter. Pfft.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Latest FV3 shifted north…

Terry
Guest
Terry

Things will change a can just watch and still can be South again still plenty of time as we all know things could change up to 12 hours before the storm gets here.

Kristi
Guest
Kristi

What is the chance that we don’t get above freezing early next week? Weren’t we originally supposed to get above freezing earlier this week? Monday could be messy if the warmer temps don’t verify!

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

2-3 sat nite…. monday colder solution with a hooked low and 7-13 in.

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image FV3 GFS 12z Look at the comma ahead right over us.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

Gary just said on the 4pm news that kc may end up in the comma head Monday night/Tuesday with heavy snow possible

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

WOOT!!!!

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Agreed. From about Emporia to Omaha will be in the comma head as that system ejects NE into central and north central Missouri. Low looks like it should Occulid too

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

That is what the FV3 has been showing but most of the other models look to have it north of here…

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The coldest temperature recorded at the Manhattan airport since November 1st is 1°, and it dropped to 1° twice, but the low temperatures for the same time period last year (Nov 1, 2017 to Feb 8 2018) went below zero 8 times; the lowest being -9°.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

comment image

I give up on the GFS….. and now im sorry I posted that last post about Sunday…lol

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056
jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

If we get the 2-3″ of snow wouldn’t that make the temps be colder for Monday/Tuesday? just a thought

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

People really still believe in the GFS at this point?

Terry
Guest
Terry

We all know how fast things can change on models its happen . Not much of one the next its bigger. So Let’s all wait and see what happens.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Joe L. points also sees numerous snow opportunities for us coming up, even just this week. Love it!

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

The next 10 days is a good illustration of why Des Moines gets twice as much as snow as KC even though it’s only about 3 hours away. Temperature.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I know some are excited over the GFS fv3 but just remember, the Nam and Euro have done well this winter and I would lean in their direction. With that said, I hope the fv3 is on to something and u guys that want the storm get it.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

You are in a perfect spot for this storm.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Time will tell Morgan don’t care so much about the snow at this point I’m just tired of these bitterly cold temps

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yeah, I’m mostly with you on the arctic air…the novelty of that that wears off fast after the first time it happens.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

FV3 picks up on the general idea of things early. NAM is good later.

jcling64056
Guest
ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Looks like, at least at this time, like a Iowa/Minnesota whopper of a snow with very little for KC. I think we will be too warm for most of the event.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

looks like anywhere from 3-12″ for our general area. I wouldn’t take much for this to really slam us with snow.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I guess the battle of models will keep happening. I’m just repeating what the NWS is saying and they definitely don’t think a 3-12 inch snow is on the horizon for us. That could change, and it has this year a couple of times where it appears way too warm not that far out from the storm. Personally, I do think it will be too warm and we won’t get very much snow from it….referring to the storm after this weekend early next week. I hope I’m wrong as a big snow would be fine.

Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

Its also interesting that the NWS has nothing in the forecast for Tuesday.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

that would be because the do not use the LRC

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I guess we shall see.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

If that comes down just a a little, we get slammed with snow. Make it so #1!

Zachary
Guest
Zachary

Yesssss. We keep talking concern with the temps but I feel like just like this week we stay colder than expected. And even if we don’t, the ground will be super cold and suspectable to instant sticking. But the setup is perfect for an epic snowstorm if tracks just a little farther south. Fingers crossed

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Highest totals in KC are *exactly* over my area! Finally it’s not south Overland Park and Lee’s Summit getting all the snow.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

NWS discussion for storm early next week is indicating predominantly rain with temps well above freezing. There may be a miss on storm track, but there usually isn’t a big miss on temps…..although it doesn’t take much to miss and it’s snowing versus raining if the temps are that close to freezing. In any event, currently, it doesn’t look like NWS things that storm will be any big deal….for KC metro area and most of the CWA.

Bubba
Guest
Bubba

Beg to differ this season on the temperature miss likelihood. NWS had Wed of this week at 40+ for days, before realizing it was only going to get in the 20s. If you recall, that was the day where some models had us in the 60s, and some in the 20s – NWS discussion noted they were splitting the difference in their temp forecast. But in the end, the low temps were the reality, not the high temps or mid temps

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

Gary on the CMC model I notice that the low tracks in a very similar matter to the fv3 that showed 9+ inches for the metro however cmc has rain? Are you expecting this one (if it remains on treack of course) to be more of an issue with temps, or the placement of that low? CMC look as if the temps were right it would be showing quite the snow considering just north has some real heavy snow on the latest model

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

would anyone know why fv3 is only putting out 00z and 06z models on tropical tid bits?

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Here is the U.S. snow cover map from 40 years ago today. This is what a REAL winter looks like! 🙂

comment image

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

I was six years old and living in KC. I don’t remember specifics, but I remember a lot of snow and cold.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Yep, I remember sledding days and days at a time back in those winters.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

19 and freshman in college up here at that time – seemed to snow 2 to 10 inches every 3-6 days from nov to mid march.

our record low for today is -19 in 1979…..

Joe
Guest
Joe

Hence why I said in an earlier blog, everything is overhyped. We used to get these snows, the older generation remembers. We would get 8 or so inches – no big deal. We get 2 inches and cities shut down for 2 days. SOFT. Smh

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Joe,

While I agree we have become a little soft, the dominate reason schools/businesses close is that we have become a society of litigants. Very sad.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Just looked. It only got above freezing on 5 days in January 1979, and never got above 40. There were six days with highs in the single digits, 16 days where the high didn’t get above 20 and 10 days with lows below zero.

John
Guest
John

Right before I turned 6, I remember playing football in some deep snow maybe that was during that time. HA!

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

There is no image?

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

It’s linked to a PNG image. I see it OK on both a desktop and tablet.

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

1978-1979, coldest winter in KC as well as in the US as a whole by average temperature. I wish I had been alive to experience it, but I guess I’ll just have to settle for February 2015 (living in Ohio at that time). That month was fun.

2soccerboyz
Guest
2soccerboyz

So the National Weather Service discussion is talking freezing drizzle Sunday/Sunday night. Are we thinking this verifies & will it be enough to create Monday morning travel issues? https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1

Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

As we saw earlier this week, even a little bit of ice can cause major problems. I think it was Gary that said, there is no such thing as a minor ice event.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy cold winter’s morning to you sir. Had 6 degrees this morning and the lakes have all frozen back over. Clinton has some pretty cool ice formations along the banks from the wave action yesterday. Just a couple of random observations on this cold February day. First off, I will again respectfully argue that the GFS-FV3 has the best handle on the storm for Tuesday. It has been the most consistent with the strength and the track of the wave and has never really wavered. The GFS in the past 7 runs has had the track south…north…over KC…has had… Read more »

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

Bill, you and I must be from the same generation. What we think is an impacting event is not what millennial or even somebody 40 years old but consider is impacting. To me impacting is 6 inches of snow are .25 inches of ice. Obviously, supercold can be impacting, however, a low 4° is not impacting. But was cold and bitter as depicted in the map above from 1979 was impacting and occurred regularly from the late 60s into the early 80s. I am not saying every winter was that bad. 7 to 10 years ago we had a string… Read more »

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Same here. I walked six blocks each way to and from grade school in the late 60s. I was talking with someone about this the other day and we both remembered getting out for heavy snow storms, but never for just bitter cold temps. Wind chill temps were calculated lower then than they are now because of using an old calculation that was revised later and we still trudged off to school. Times have changed it would seem… 🙂

Joe
Guest
Joe

Amen ^^^ this guy gets it!!!

Joe
Guest
Joe

Ted in st. Joe you are the man…thank you

Bill
Guest
Bill

Well please consider some other factors, such as the homeless population, kids who can’t afford winter clothes, etc. Pretty sure this wasn’t the case/no one really cared or paid attention to it a few decades ago. Do not throw out the term wimps, it is condescending and quite frankly every one has different life experiences.

KirksvilleDave
Guest
KirksvilleDave

People don’t know how to dress like they used to. I see kids at school in shorts & light jackets, no hats or gloves. People are used to walking to & from cars & are outside for 1 minute & don’t stop to think how wind chill can effect them.

Becca
Guest
Becca

I have to agree with Bill as well, although I guess I would be considered in a younger generation (don’t feel like it though!). I also lived in Chicago for six years though and lived through the blizzard of 2011. Even then I did not feel like it was a big deal. I put snow pants on over my dress pants, boots on, stuffed my heels in my purse, walked four blocks to the el, walked another 8 blocks from the el to work, worked, came home and no big deal …all in 23 inches of snow!

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

My stats are a little different from yours (I show 0.2″ on Dec 6th, and a T on January 21st) Here are the stats for the last several years: 2018/19: 15 days measurable snow, 30 days with trace or more 2017/18: 9 days measurable snow, 27 days with trace or more 2016/17: 5 days measurable snow, 11 days with trace or more 2015/16: 9 days measurable snow, 23 days with trace or more Also just for fun, the most days of measurable snowfall in one season is 33 set back in 1898/99. The most recent highest was 2009/10 where we… Read more »

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

If you click “read more”, it puts it in the proper format.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Awesome post!!! Thanks so much!!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Thanks Gary for posting the dates with snowfall and totals. I’ve made a copy of it and saved it so I can refer to it. I think it would be great to post this on the opening blog page so people can refer to it……anyways…….. Once again, with the shifting of the models and upper air conditions it will be tricky forecasting the next couple of systems. The air up around 5,000 ft (850mb) looks to still be warm and somewhat saturated per the Skew-T charts and several of them bounce back and forth between sleet and freezing rain. I’m… Read more »

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Agree with you on the dangers of salt/chemicals on pets paws. Had a friend whose dog ended up with paw burns. But the frigid ice can cause damage too if they linger too long.

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

“The trough that doesn’t move” reminds me of Weatherman Dan Henry back in the 70s when he named a stalled front “Old No Movem”. He had spelled it out right on his forecast map for several days in a row. Loved that guy!!

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Yes he was one of my favorites also. He also coined the term, “The Ol Tonganoxie Split”.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

J-ox, I loved Dan Henry growing up! I couldn’t Wait for the news to watch his forecast each night. My parents and grandparents actually took me to meet him as a surprise present. I got to sit in his chair where he put together his forecast, and got to help him put the Lows and Highs and raindrops and snowflakes on the map. It was a fantastic experience and he was so incredibly nice. It left lasting impression on me and only strengthened my love of weather.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

If the models pan out, and you like snow, Iowa is the place to be.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Canadian has jogged south slightly from its last run.

Kathy
Guest
Kathy

I am very curious as to how all of these storms are going to play out when the weather warms up in the spring. I can see that we are in the sweet spot for winter storms to track through our area, but what will happen this spring? Some have suggested on this blog that this could be a bad severe weather set up….but where?

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

GFS, unfortunately, is still north. Identical to the EURO and Canadian.

Terry
Guest
Terry

It’s useless

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

Here is Sunday FV3-GFS on the latest run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019020806&fh=54

Might be adding to the 28 days of frozen precip total.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Gary
Any thoughts on Tuesday ? If we get snow how much ?
Need to drive to Paola from JoCo for the day. 8 am -4 pm

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Right now, only the FV3 seems to want to give us in KC anything good out of the Tuesday storm. Once again, KC winds up just south and/or east of the rain / snow line. This is such a frustrating town for snow lovers. So many “just missed” snow events during the winters here. Here’s a sampling:comment imagecomment imagecomment image

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Anyone have the maps they can post for the Tuesday storm? Thank you.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

06z FV3 GFS shows 0.2-0.3″ of freezing rain /sleet Sunday morning.
comment image

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

This is actually good news as it is on Sunday. Just gotta hold our breaths for one more month and hope NO MORE weekday traffic issues occur then it is off to spring! At least we will have one this year………….

Gerald Beebe
Guest
Gerald Beebe

Here’s the 2015/16 snow stats.
9-Oct M
15-Oct M
28-Oct M
31-Oct M
17-Dec T
26-Dec T
27-Dec T
28-Dec 2.3
30-Dec 0.2
6-Jan T
9-Jan T
16-Jan T
17-Jan 1.6
19-Jan 0.5
21-Jan 0.6
22-Jan T
23-Jan 0.1
8-Feb T
10-Feb T
25-Feb T
19-Mar 0.2
20-Mar 0.1
24-Mar T
27-Mar 0.3

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Those Ms in October 2015 mean nothing. The missing data is zero.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Hoping for a good old fashioned snow storm on Tuesday!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

You would. Again NO MORE traffic issues the rest of this winter…………….cannot take any more.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Been an awesome winter..one or two good snowstorms ought to hold me until next winter.

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

Do you ever work? You are here literally all day, every day

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

I think Heat Miser might be the most unpopular member on the board.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

naw, just with the couple of snow haters

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Perhaps he is retired….

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

A lot of folks are here day after day, at least during the winter. Sorry snow haters, if you hate snow, you have definitely picked the wrong blog

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

I love snow and agree with Papa Poof….you are the most unpopular blogger here lol

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

luv ya heat

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Topeka and east are what the models show for precip chances, I don’t think this pattern will produce a big negatively tilted trough coming out of the four corners, these storms always seem to get their act together further east. I can’t recall how the blizzard developed, but I don’t think there was a plethora of moisture being thrown up over the boundary…at least out here in central kansas. But for KC area it looks like a fun few weeks, enjoy:)

Roger
Guest
Roger

Here in south-central Kansas it’s been pretty much the same. 75-90% of our snow (only 4-6 inches total) came in October and November. Since December 1st, only a trace-1 inch has fallen. Once again, it looks like we will fall short of our normal snow accumulation (13-16 inches).

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Bike ride this morning was fun! Studded tires do awesome ripping on the 1/2″ thick sleet ice mix. They have some challenges on snow ruts but the studs help from the wheels slipping severely. I think the bike computer I have now (Garmin Edge 520 Plus) is a bit inaccurate though as it said it was 1.4F but the nearest weather station, Olathe Johnson County, was +5F.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Are you training for a triathlon

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

No. It’s my form of workout along with running. I just don’t like paying $50/month for a gym

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Thx Gary. I think Sunday could b an inch or two and Tues as of now looks too far north for any measurable snow but maybe some flurries or light snow showers. Wait and see what today’s 12z runs show this morning. A balmy -10 air temp up here with the fresh snow……sigh. boo and hiss these temps once again.

CaptainKU
Guest
CaptainKU

Looks like a a busy week with storms possible Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday! Dont put your snow boots away yet.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

That, thankfully, comes the second half of February. This will NOT be an April winter like last year I would bet anyone on that………..

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

At the bottom!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

OK, second from the bottom. :-/

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Yea I wasn’t sure if I’d actually be first Snow Miser. We can call it a tie though. 🙂

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

After I posted it said you beat me by 2 seconds.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Wow, lol, what’s with all the down votes? Hadn’t checked the blog since this morning when I happened to check it early and noticed nobody had commented yet so thought I’d do the whole “first” thing for fun. Guess i’ll never do that again. It’s apparently not very popular is it Snow Miser? Sheesh.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

First?