The Winter Storm Continues With An Arctic Blast

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Good morning bloggers,

At just before 10 PM we had a severe thunderstorm warning in areas where the temperatures were in the 20s.  There were thunderstorms with sleet, hail, freezing rain, and snow across the region as this winter storm intensifies early today.  Here is a look at the severe thunderstorm warning in the middle of the Ice Storm Warning; something we may never see again.

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Just look at this next surface map, and remember this is February.  It was in the 70s at 10 PM over southern Oklahoma into north Texas, while at the same time it was 24 degrees in Kansas City, 30 degrees where the severe thunderstorm warning was issued in Sedalia, MO, and 6 below zero over North Dakota:

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Some of the thunderstorms did produce hail, and possibly severe hail. Remember, for a thunderstorm to be classified as severe it must satisfy one of three different criteria:  1) have at least a wind gust of 50 knots (58 mph), 2) have hail 1″ in diametor or larger, or 3) Have a tornado. This picture was sent in from Clinton, MO:

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This hail stone is likely just a bit smaller than 1″ in diameter.  There was hail and sleet falling at the same time.  By 6 AM, the surface cyclone will be centered over southeastern Missouri.  There is a chance of a little snow as this system goes by, and then the Arctic air will blast in. Bundle up!

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Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great day!  We will look ahead to the next two storm systems in the comment section and in our next blog. I am a bit wiped out and heading to bed as it was midnight when I posted this blog entry!

Gary

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Stl78(winon,mn)EastOfEdenJoeKjcling64056Morgan Recent comment authors
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EastOfEden
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EastOfEden

I’m just going to call it now. Dusting to 2″, just like the November version. Then rain when it repeats in early April.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I think that is a reasonable forecast for now. See what today’s runs say

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

really weird looking snowfall map lol

Someweatherdude
Guest
Someweatherdude

Haha. GFS goes 500 miles north of its last run. These models are a joke. I will say, though, that KC has stayed south of the main snow on pretty much all of the models for the last 24 hours now. So it doesn’t look too promising.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Its trash that gfs Is not reliable in hasn’t been all Winter long.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

the NAM to the rescue tomorrow! lol we’ll see I guess. the models to watch will be the FV3-GFS, and the NAM

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Canadian is also a rainer. Consensus right now is for more rain than anything.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

GFS is entirely too warm AGAIN, and has the storm too far north

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

GFS is way north now for Tuesday. Dakotas special.

Terry
Guest
Terry

The GFS is trash .

SnowBadger
Guest

This has been the craziest weather I have seen in a long time and I have been here since 2005. I’ve been a long time blogger since the days of the original blog would blow up with so many posts it would crash. It was also unmoderated to a sense and many times got out of control. Although, there are still trollers on here, this is so much better! I really miss the epic back to back snowstorms where South Lee’s Summit received 30” in 5 days. I remember the 2nd storm was during the day and from the previous… Read more »

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

SnowBadger,

We have two good chances for major storms before winter is over and I am betting one of the two, materializes. Nice post

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

comment image

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2019020800&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

latest NAM. I am liking the looks of it at 84hrs, anyone else??

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

What is it showing. Is it going to snow here ?

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

the last time in the cycle we got around 1.25″ of precip Dec. 26-27

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/mo/kansas-city-international/KMCI/date/2018-12-26

given that, I would expect near the same amount of precip this go around, however this time with cold air!

what do you think Gary?

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

At this time, it looks like Sunday and Tuesday are going to bring more snow to Iowa than in KC. It will be interesting to track.

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

Next week, the KC Metro will get over 20 inches of snow. Schools and businesses will be closed for days. Chaos will ensue. Food shortages. Gangs looting stores. Cats frozen in trees. The sh*t is about to get real.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019020618&fh=12

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Are you related to Gary Gribble the famous runner’s shoe store?

Matt
Guest
Matt

It just shows Blue no where near 20 inches.

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

You need to hit play.

Matt
Guest
Matt

It ends on 16th 11 inches.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Happy Wednesday evening everyone. Since I have had to walk around outside quite a bit to meet parents in different rooms it got me to thinking about something. So what follows is the confessions of a winter weather lover. I have posted 4 times today about a storm 5 days away and wondering if it will produce snow when I am right now experiencing about as big of a winter day as one can have here on the 39th parallel. Seriously…..it never got above 18 degrees today with a biting north wind and we just had a day of freezing… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Oh, I think Lawrence has a 60-70 percent chance of one or even two more impacting snows…lots of time left. Possibly as early as Tuesday. It has been an awesome winter here..but one major snow event, or even a couple significant events would really be icing on the cake. Shoot for the moon! Right now, snow satisfaction level for me is 8.5/10. Hoping to make that a 9 or 10/10. 😉

Bob H
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Bob H

Crazy icy still in OP

Matt
Guest
Matt

Can’t even Shovel Driveway or Sidewalk and even the whole street 101st still has Ice but Larmar Cleared looks like.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

2 choices;

1. Salt it, wait an hour or two, come back and shovel it. Morning to mid day would be great timing.

2. Wait till it warms up 🤔, whenever that is

Athan
Guest
Athan

next time there is a storm put a bunch of ice melt down prior to the storm coming in so as it hits the ground it will melt and create a barrier between the precipitation and the ground. I salted my driveway last night and this morning I was able to shovel the entire driveway plus the Circle Drive With no issues.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

FV3 shifted south again with the Tuesday system.comment image

jcling64056
Guest
Matt
Guest
Matt

Fort Scott,Pittsburg get the most.

CraigMac
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CraigMac

Fort Osage is closed tomorrow already. I wonder how many more will close. I work in Westport and the roads are all the way clear yet except one lane on 39th and Broadway. Wonder how many will close tomorrow??

2soccerboyz
Guest
2soccerboyz

Just saw Grain Valley is out too. Side streets in BS & LS are still terrible. With that & wind chills tomorrow AM, I expect lots of closings on MO side. We’ll see. . . Edit: both BS & LS just canceled too!

Matt
Guest
Matt

Blue Vally,KCMO,Independence,Raytown closed. Grandview closed but District Office opens at 10pm.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

from the NWS forecast discussion

“While the GFS and the ECMWF differ slightly on
location and intensity of the snow, due to some variation in the
speed of the upper wave, they are both consistent in bringing a
strong storm system to the middle of the country next early next
week.”

thought this was interesting

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EAX&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Adam
Guest
Adam

Why are they still using the GFS? Sigh

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

This is the craziest looking snow / rain line I’ve ever seen.comment image

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

the old GFS seems to have a very weak storm, which I think is the opposite of what it will be

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Looks really weak and fast moving on most of the models now. Starts to get its act together a little bit near Chicago.

Johnny
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Johnny

Haha i always appreciate your positivity

Josh
Guest
Josh

What about the snow Saturday night, I mean, yeah it may not be much, but this one “wasn’t much” either lol. Tuesday’s storm is storm #2 lol. Active pattern for sure! Who knows though, the end of February-March may quiet down..

Becca
Guest
Becca

All models are pretty consistent for next week’s storm having the bulk of the snow in Iowa. It is all going to depend on that high in Canada (location/strength). If it is able to force an injection of cold air and pushing that low south, we may have a good shot. However, the LRC would convince me that the high will be weaker and further East.

Terry
Guest
Terry

They have not been that consistent Especially the old GFS Especially on the storm we just Experienced. There’s gonna be way too many different storm solutions on this week’s storm still to come.

Becca
Guest
Becca

Terry today they are all pretty consistent. The high in Canada is looking to be too weak. Will the models change in the next few days, 100%. However, today they are all generally showing the same thing.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Not really because the old GFS 00z /06z had at bigger storm and now the GFS 12z/18z is weaker but storm is still there. So they haven’t been that consistent today. And we will get many more different solutions from different models all of them up until the storm.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary seemed to believe we could get quite a bit of snow from it.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

ROFL !!
You were saying the same thing on Sunday about yesterdays storm !
“Gary says. Gary thinks ”
And Gary had not chimed in all weekend !

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

I am not getting excited whatsoever about this storm until the weekend… GFS and Canadian all have it way north currently..

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

yesterday it showed 19 inches over our area…I didnt believe that nor the north solution. Waiting to see this weekend’s solutions plus Gary input.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

…hmm…still no new blog eh?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

This is it for the day.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…oh really?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Yeah, still nothing yet

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

New blog ?? Did Gary say there would be one ?
He was up until midnight writing this one. What more is there to say.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_024h&rh=2019020712&fh=126&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

new 12z FV3-GFS! looks a little more south, just a bit. will be quite the storm for someone close by

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

It keeps shifting north!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

south compared the 6z run I mean

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

It’ll go more south. The snow/no snow line across KC looks almost like the November Blizzard a bit. The trend this season is for storms to move south on models. Just wait.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Looks like Seattle might get 8-12 inches this weekend. That’s what their NWS station is calling for.

Paul
Guest
Paul

I’m flying in to Seattle on Saturday evening. Should be fun.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

I filmed the thunder sleet west of Salina last night, really strange, came out of church and heard a roar, daughter asked was that thunder and I’m thinking probably not maybe a plane. Then a big flash and a loud boom, then the sleet really picked up and some pea-marble hail. That was pretty much all we got, about 15 minutes of action. It felt weird seeing that much lightning at 18 degrees out.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Are u part of our FB group? Would love be to see the footage! I posted some heavy snow up this way.

StormySkiesOP
Guest
StormySkiesOP

I would love to join the Facebook group! What is it called?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)
StormySkiesOP
Guest
StormySkiesOP

Anyone up north around the Grain Valley area? Curious how the conditions are up there and if you think they will have school tomorrow?

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

I hate how these models tease us with storms then they go away lol. At least it has been fun tracking storms this winter!

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Fv3gfs 12z seems like it is delayed

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

It’s running on pivotalweather. It takes the Tuesday low right over KC with only a bit of wrap around snow at the tail end for KC. Oddly, the GFS is now further south with the low than the GFS.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

This is now the second run in a row that the GFS-FV3 has this track….one thing it has been consistent with is the strength and organization of the storm…..if this scenario is close to what will happen and I as I have argued below I think it has merit, then Lawrence could see 2-3 inches on the back side and areas NW of Lawrence say Topeka to Saint Joseph could see a very decent snow storm indeed. A shift by 25-50 miles south from this depicted track and Lawrence could have its biggest single snow event since 2014. Lawrence only… Read more »

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

I think I should add that if the track shifted 25-50 miles north Lawrence would of course be out of the game all together. The track depicted on these past 2 GFS-FV3 runs is very close to a strong track for Lawrence to get its big snows…..a track from say Wichita to Grandview, Missouri or Sedalia, Missouri is the sweet spot for Lawrence and the GFS-FV3 is not too far from that scenario. In the previous cycle the surface low tracked between Lawrence and Topeka so we may very well see a track further north and west at the end… Read more »

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

When in December did this storm hit us? And what did it do?

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Should get a nice snow storm next week. Ended up with about 1/2 inch of snow and about .2 inch of ice from last night. Excited for next week.

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Sun is shinning in Eastern Shawnee. Hope it can have a better impact on the roads than the salt and plows.

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image FV3 GFS 06z and the FV3 GFS 12z Has not yet posted.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

I wish I may I wish I might………..

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Good morning again everyone… The 6Z GFS-FV3 shows the track of the surface low for Monday/Tuesday almost exactly as it tracked in the previous cycle. I would respectfully argue we have a winner. In the previous cycle it was pretty organized storm that produced the blizzard in Goodland and gave my area close to two inches of rain.. I think this particular model run has the overall track and strength of the wave pretty well handled. Now of course there will be several more different renditions between now and Monday but I will respectfully argue that what that 6Z run… Read more »

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

The latest GFS just shifted way south with the low pressure, but not quite enough south yet with the snow. At 114 hours, it has the low in southwest Missouri and moves it from there to about Chicago. On the last run, at the same time frame, it had the low over northwest Kansas and moved it to Des Moines, and then to west-central Wisconsin.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

I will fully admit that there is a very good chance my analysis will prove incorrect but I will stick with it for now. I know there will be several different renditions on the GFS Classic, the Euro, the GFS-FV3(or Newbie) et al but I really am convinced that this particular 6Z run has a very good handle on how that particular wave will track and be organized.

Have a great day!!

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Why are you convinced? This far out, that’s a bit strong of a conclusion I think. It may turn out right, but not sure how anyone can get convinced or anything this far out.

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

Do we know what the models are saying for Sundays storm, the other station says we will need shovels but didnt provide amounts

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I think Gary mentioned 1-3 inches yesterday

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

NWS in St Louis is saying 1-3” for central MO. Hopefully that forecast holds

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Just thankful we did not lose electricity. Last night there was thunder sleet, followed by light freezing rain. Woke up to find about 1/4 inch of sleet on the patio, with cold temps and gusty wind. Put out a lot of bird seed and had a huge gathering of birds and squirrels for breakfast. Just a nasty, cold, gray day. Even the cats don’t want to go outside 😄 Stay safe and warm everyone.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Amen on the power…

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It is currently 10°, but our sleet is already evaporating under the bright sun. Tonight’s forecast says we’ll hit 0°.
comment image

Chris
Guest
Chris

Gary…..can you tell us when an extended warm up might be coming? Warmup meaning above freezing for lows and 50’s and 60’s during the day? For more than 2-3 days. I’m looking forward to putting winter behind us already.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Got solid 1/3″ of ice on everything in NW Vernon Co. The thunderstorms never really turned to sleet here, just pouring rain. It rained alot more than 1/3″, but was so heavy it didn’t have time to freeze and ran off in torrents. Creek got about bank full. Wildest winter in a long time, never seen lightening like that in winter. Was more electrical than Alot of summer storms, may never see that again

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

This spring is the next focus. Trying to imagine a storm like this with 70s-80s in May…………

Nate
Guest
Nate

No Big Deal, Just a typical winter event, the thunder was cool though

Joe
Guest
Joe

Exactly…no big deal….it was near Sedalia…but KC metro nothing to major….hype, hype, hype…most areas (not all) most were under ice storm warning criteria . 1/4-1/2”

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Looks like the FV3 caved to the GFS and EURO overnight for next week’s storm. Warm has been a issue all winter for these storms. Despite that, we’ve still managed quite a bit of snow. Would be nice to have one storm where temperatures aren’t an issue.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

I saw that too. But the latest ICON now has the low in central Arkansas at 120 hours (but is still too warm) rather than the run 12 hours ago that had the low in central Kansas. So the models are still bouncing around. I doubt it will work out for KC, but still hoping …

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

And now the latest GFS went all wacko with a weaker low and seems to have moved the low about 200 miles south. Who knows …

Terry
Guest
Terry

How can the FV3 GFS cave To the other models when it hasn’t even come back out yet. ?

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

The 06Z run moved quite a bit north.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

This past Monday morning at this time, the GFS was forecasting that the temperature right now (Thursday) would be 58 degrees.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Models are all over the place with Tuesday’s storm. 00z FV3 still had KC getting huge snows. 6z backed off and went north. GFS is still north. Euro is still north. Canadian is south and way weaker. ICON is still a bit south of the GFS and FV3. It’d be nice if, just once, KC wasn’t on the edge of a winter storm. Given KC’s history, and the model trends, I’m guessing Tuesday will be a bit of rain followed by an hour of light snow before the precip shuts off.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Since the models are all over the place, Im thinking we have no clue at all what will happen

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

Have to trust the LRC this year. Seems to be hitting at about 80% clip. Hard to bet those odds.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

How cold are we talking about tonight? I’m thinking more school closures tomorrow….

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

all I have to say is we were fortunate in Saint Joe. A very minor amount of freezing drizzle fall by a very minor amount of sleet and less than 1/4 inch of powdery snow. Appears to be another band of snow that will pop by that could whiten things up a little bit more. Appears as if we have several short waves coming out in succession. Over the weekend and then again on Monday. They appear to be cold enough for snow if we get anything couple inches each one that will start the refrigeration effect. Some things are… Read more »

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good cold winter’s morning to you sir!!! Currently sitting at 12 degrees with a pretty gusty north wind….it will get your attention!! 🙂 Wound up with about 3/4 of an inch of freezing drizzle, sleet and a bit of snow which brings my frozen precip total to around 16.5 inches for the season…..right around average for this area. Missed most of the heavier bands last night but still managed to get our inservice cancelled (but we still have parent conferences today) this morning so I got to treat our road in the day light and not the dark which… Read more »

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Was there really an ice tornado somewhere around Springfield last night?! That’s crazy.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Snowing hard in Lee’s Summit.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

No where near 7″ of sleet that the NAM showed last night. Nor near the 1/2″ of ICE the RGEM showed at times. Maybe 1/10″-2/10″ total? HRRR and NAM were all showing .25-.4″ so GFS was actually closest despite it being wonky on temps leading to the event. Got maybe a dusting mix of everything. Had thunder freezing rain mixed with sleet around Midnight here in Lenexa and heavy sleet for a while… but from the looks of it road crews kept up well. Not many accidents around either. Models showed big storm, than none, than big storm, then we… Read more »

Joshua
Guest
Joshua

What is Tuesday storm looking like?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I would lean the direction of 2-4″ likely no more. The storm wasn’t a huge producer last time around. FV3 a few days ago was showing Kucheras of 28″ in KC metro, yeah… that ain’t gonna happen over my global warming.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Wow, KU campuses closed for the day again!

Jeffg
Guest
Jeffg

It looks to be over here in Lenexa. There may be some ice under the snow, but I don’t think it looks too bad. Haven’t ventured out yet. We did get some thunder, lightning, and a brief heavy downpour of sleet early into the storm.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

A decent dusting here in Liberty. I was not
Awakened by any thunder. A bit of ice underneath but not to much. It’s definitely cold and windy out.

You look at the dynamics of even these small scale storms that come through, it’s possible the spring versions are going to bring supercells, then a squall line, then cold and possible backside flakes. Life jackets and blue tarps.

Also, as much as I would like for warmer temps, PLEASE!!!, I’d still like to see what the active part of this pattern would do with blocking.

Athan
Guest
Athan

My wife and I just drove from i-435 and Wornall to 119th and Nall and if you drive no more than 30 miles an hour or so you should be fine. The roads are snow packed but they’re not terribly slick.

39th&Blue
Guest
39th&Blue

Are we done? Is it over? Can I drive from Independence all the way into Johnson County for work now?