Accumulations Of A Mixture Of Precipitation Likely Tonight

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Good morning bloggers,

Winter Weather Advisory Through Thursday Morning

The setup for some rather wild weather will be in place later today.  An incredible 112° temperature contrast is likely going to develop between 20 below zero in Canada and 92° near the Mexico/USA border in south Texas. Take a look:

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This week has been fascinating, and it is only Wednesday.  In Kansas City, it has gone from 59° early Monday morning to the 20s Monday afternoon.  Freezing drizzle and freezing light rain lead to a few slick spots on Tuesday. Then, there were a few spots that had some boundary layer snow with enough to coat the ground white over parts of Overland Park during the evening last night.  The main storm is now going to rip out into the plains tonight and Thursday and it may produce this:

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A strong upper level storm will be moving out into the plains and the energy is going to create a surface set up somewhat like this below.  This is the RGEM model valid at 3 AM tonight.  Thunderstorms will be in progress over southern Missouri into eastern Oklahoma, a few of which may be severe.  Farther north band of rain-freezing rain-sleet-snow will be developing and rather rapidly moving across eastern and central Kansas into western Missouri and Iowa.  There is a chance that the middle of this band will be quite heavy and accumulations of ice, sleet, and snow are likely near Kansas City. Around 1 to 2 inches total is possible. Add in the crashing temperatures and winds potentially gusting up to 45 mph, it will create many problems in the early morning hours of Thursday.

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Yes, this set up fits the LRC perfectly as it was around 98 days ago when we had an outbreak of severe weather in this same general area, just a bit farther south on Halloween.  The risk today looks like this:

day1otlk_1200

day1probotlk_1200_torn

Here are the Storm Reports from two LRC cycles ago:

181031_rpts_filteredThere was a severe weather outbreak on Halloween due south of where this risk is today.  The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC.  The Weather2020 team predicted Tropical Storm Gordon 8-months before there was even a cloud approaching the Gulf coast near the Florida Panhandle in 2018.  On January 12th, the snowstorm was predicted weeks before there was an impacting and nearly 1 foot of snow on the south side of KC as we “knew” that the part of the pattern that produced a blizzard in the second LRC cycle would return in cycle 3 down to that specific date. And, now, we have been anticipating this set up for weeks to return around today.   This part of the pattern will cycle through two more times before summer settles in.  Wecan expect this part of the pattern to produce bigger set ups either in late March and/or in mid-May.

As the energy of this storm moves out into the plains, a band of winter precipitation is likely going to form later tonight into early Thursday morning as the Arctic blast moves in.  Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible, and this would include some sleet, and possibly some snow on top. Where will the band of precipitation line up? This is something we will be monitoring closely.

This first forecast says tomorrow, as it was what I showed last night. It is for today!

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Will we be adding to the 17.3″ total early tomorrow?  It may be more sleet than snow.  Let’s see how this sets up tonight and I will be on 41 Action News at 4, 5, 6, 6:30 PM and 10 PM when we will begin seeing how this sets up.  The models are all over the place, and not just on this storm, but also on a few other storm systems showing up in the next two weeks.  The wild weather ride will continue.

Thanks for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions by clicking on the blog at Weather2020.com.

Gary

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MattinLeavenworth
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MattinLeavenworth

Its cold outside. We have a glaze of ice maybe .15 of an inch with .25 inch of snow on top. Slick for sure.

Dogfacefarms
Guest
Dogfacefarms

Sill freezing rain in oak grove.

Randy D
Guest
Randy D

Well I lost that bet it has switched back to sleet and freezing rain pouring down in southern Lawrence. You would think with it changing to snow with the artic blast coming through with winds picking up from the north. The cold air had deepened for more of a snow event.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Watching the growth of precipitation down near Wichita as it starts to race up I-35. The heaviest of the freezing rain was expected between 2-7am and right on cue, rapid development and strengthening is occurring.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

EURO not on board for next week. Looks a lot like the old GFS.

Randy D
Guest
Randy D

Should know here pretty soon with this next wave of precipitation coming in from just south of Lawrence if its going to be more of a snow event. From what I am seeing now I am betting on snow as of right now.

Katharidinaus
Guest
Katharidinaus

Last year we had this happen. Thunderstorms with sleet/freezing rain would roll through, and in their wake, precipitation turned to snow. And then it would turn back to sleet/freezing rain after a time. Not sure if this is what’s in the cards for us this time… But possibly

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Its over me now in Lawrence…its primarily sleet.

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

South KC : moderate snow………..gone now

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Snowing now in Lawrence. lf in fact it will all be snow from here on out, icing was a total non-issue here since the Ice Storm Warning was issued.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Maybe the snow will start piling up now?

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Seems like conditions are wildly inconsistent across the metro.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Pretty much all sleet and very fine snow, almost like dust, blowing around. Not really much freezing rain yet.

Randy D
Guest
Randy D

I am in southern Lawrence and it’s snowing.

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Near st lukes north hospital Barry rd a mix of snow and freezing rain at moderate clip

kcjc94
Guest
kcjc94

Interesting, I’m not very far to the West of there and it was almost all rain here. A friend a few minutes further west had all sleet.

kcjc94
Guest
kcjc94

Had a very brief period of fairly decent rain about 10 minutes ago now, just North of Parkville. Really big rain drops with a bit of sleet mixed in. Wasn’t here long enough to completely wash away the dusting of snow from last night.

Also, anyone notice how fast that tornado-warned storm by Springfield is moving? The warning says NE at 85mph. I think that’s about the fastest storm motion I can remember seeing.

Katharidinaus
Guest
Katharidinaus

In Nashville during May of 2003, we had a severe thunderstorm warning with a velocity E at 90 mph. These might be the two highest I’ve ever seen.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Yeah that’s extremely fast. Most of the fastest storm motions I’ve seen have been around 65-70mph to the NE. The fact that it was husling between 87-92mph in the exit flanker really says a lot about how dynamic of a system it is.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

All snow here at my house in Prairie Village. Things are whitening up fast. I guess the ice is over?

Natasha
Guest
Natasha

Heavy rain, lightning and thunder in Odessa with temps near 27.

Natasha
Guest
Natasha

I have a feeling this is not good!

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image FV3 GFS 00z look at this snowstorm. This model has been pretty consistent the new on the place of the storm.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Woof!

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden
WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

It’s trending exactly how I thought it would

Logan
Guest
Logan

Absolutely insane Thunder Snow and super heavy sleet in Manhattan! Never seen sleet come down so hard/large, and I had NEVER experience thunder snow like this! Absolutely incredible.

Shoedog
Guest
Shoedog

I didn’t catch the weather tonight, is more precipitation suppose to develop overnight or is the little push up from Wichita going to be the end of it?

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Tornado Warning issued in Springfield (MO). This is some wild weather

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Thunder and lightning with brief pea size hail in Eastern Shawnee

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

Wow wow wow! Out of nowhere it started pouring down, then a huge flash of lightning and thunder! Pretty amazing weather!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Yikes-o-rama!!! Just heard huge crack of thunder here at 95th/Mission Rd area. Really pouring freezing rain right now. Need to check radar since the app can tilt thur different layers.

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

Facinating. The heavy Pulse over Olathe 15 minutes ago created about a 2 minute window of heavy freezing rain and even some small hail (Not Sleet). Smaller than dime size.

Tornado warnings down near Springfield and a major ice storm just north of there. Crazy

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

First thunder of 2019 (I think) for me. 135th and roe.

Jeffro
Guest
Jeffro

Lightning and moderate freezing rain in Western Shawnee. Sleet mixing in as well.

Becca
Guest
Becca

I can’t recall any hailstorm since I moved back to KC that was as loud as the one that just hit. Wow! This was not sleet, but ragged chunks of ice falling from the sky for about 5 minutes. It is now rain with thunder. I was worried about the windows. Both kids woke up crying and are now in my bed. I seriously hope the rest of the night is not like this. 143rd & Pflumm

Shoedog
Guest
Shoedog

Just had a quick burst of heavy rain and sleet in Leawood

John
Guest
John

Heavy sleet/Freezing rain burst in sw Olathe

Dylan
Guest
Dylan

Walked outside and was just in amazement at the sound of thunder and the sight of Lightning. The intervals of thunder are fairly rapid which caught me by surprise. Sleet trying to mix in. Coming to ya from south of the city at Grand Summit in Grandview, Mo.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1042 PM CST WED FEB 6 2019

KSZ040-055-056-059-070515-
Douglas-Franklin-Osage-Anderson-
1042 PM CST WED FEB 6 2019

…SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT…

At 1041 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles northeast of Blue Mound to near Quenemo.
Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

These storms will have occasional thunder along with freezing rain
and sleet. Roads could quickly become treacherous from the freezing
rain and sleet.

Locations impacted include…
Lawrence, Ottawa, Baldwin City, Garnett, Eudora, Wellsville,

Kstater
Guest
Kstater

IN manhattan it was snowing and is now thundering and hailing (dime sized) also.

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Not only were there severe thunderstorm warnings down by Pittsburg Kansas, on the frozen side of the precip, but now they are u der a flash flood warning…

C M
Guest
C M

Sleet with thunder in Manhattan.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Wichita echoes may get us!

John
Guest
John

Lightning and Thunder in Olathe

Claire Ashgrove
Guest
Claire Ashgrove

Well… Chilhowee MO here. Thunderstorms hit about 30-40 minutes ago. Pretty fascinating-watched an icecicle outside my window grow a half inch in a handful of minutes. Rain has backed off some but it is a constant rumble of thunder up above. Wind picking up. My 200yr old maple is creaking.

Hope it doesn’t lead to power outages. Like a lady below I’m all electric as well and have a bajillion critters on the farm. Nothing to do but ride it out I guess. Hope everyone stays safe and warm!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Fill containers with fresh water for drinking/cooking. Hope you have propane for hot H2O and stove. Fill bathtub for water to flush toilet and for heated bath water.

Sbates77
Guest
Sbates77

Thunder and lightening in Lacygne.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Yep, the batch south will miss the metro.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yup, I just noticed that too…and not much west of that at all….will more form later?

Becca
Guest
Becca

The HRRR has the main event in the early morning hours. Same thing for the NAM. I think this storm is just starting to crank out the precip.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Thank goodness it’s going around kc!

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Pouring thunder ice in Vernon Co!
This storm is DYNAMIC!
WOW!
Cannot recall thunderstorms like this in such cold airmass!?! Imagine how this will light up in Spring

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

it has been mostly calm out this way all day– no ice but a few minor snow flurries, but we just got a burst of sleet with lightning & thunder. The line of thunderstorms is still west of here (25 miles north of .manhattan), but it is moving this way.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Severe thunderstorm warning issued for Henry, Johnson, and Pettis counties in west central missouri until 9:45pm. #mowx pic.twitter.com/l4bUyPUCQg

— Kansas City Weather Updates (@kcwx_updates) February 7, 2019

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Glad I’m not living SW or E of where I am now. Stay safe.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Gary said in FB live post not to worry about power lines or trees getting too much ice on them and that he didn’t anticipate power outages or downed trees. NWS has a pretty strong opposite message and is stressing the ice/wind combo. My house tends to be prone to outages because it’s an older neighborhood, so I’m curious which one is right about this. I hope Gary is correct.

Jason Rann
Guest
Jason Rann

You and me both. Moderate winds alone cause flickers here in Prairie Village, not to mention outages.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Hate to go against Gary but I think NWS is right. Hope not ! But the freezing drizzle ALL day already has added weight to lines. Add that to what is coming. And then the wind coming will stress them more.

Fatty
Guest
Fatty

Has anyone noticed all of the lightning in the precip coming up from the south? There are even reports of hail.

Wait… Right as I post this, I got an alert on my phone for Johnson county, Missouri being under a severe thunderstorm warning. Areas like Clinton and Sedalia are under a severe thunderstorm warning for large hail… During freezing rain…

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

😳😫

Troy
Guest
Troy

In Republic County we are having thunder snow and the temp is 10 degrees. Can’t recall that occurring when its so cold.

Athan
Guest
Athan

Good evening, I hope I am not repeating something that’s already been said. This afternoon on the National Weather Service conference call they mentioned that the stronger the rain we get the less chance that ice will build up on trees and the streets. They said the Hard rain will bounce off the trees and also will run off into the drains. So thunderstorms may be a good thing.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Ran 10.3 miles out there this evening. It’s not bad temperature wise but sidewalks and driveways are death traps. Best tactic is to run in grass and when you come upon a driveway go on the treated surface of the road a bit. No falls but man had a few close calls.

ku_fan
Guest
ku_fan

You ran tonight?! Was someone chasing you? Just kidding!

Freeze Miser
Guest
Freeze Miser

Is Gary going to be live on his Facebook fan page or the KSHB page?

Sierravista
Guest
Sierravista

Facebook

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

So what did he say?

Sierravista
Guest
Sierravista

He either hasn’t said or I missed it.

Sierravista
Guest
Sierravista

Very heavy precipitation around 2am this morning. Watching him now.

Freeze Miser
Guest
Freeze Miser

He was on the KSHB Facebook page.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Eye candy from the FV3-GFS showing a bunch of snow by the end of next week. Snow lovers this is for you. ❄️❄️❄️

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019020618&fh=12

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

You are starting to remind me of that horrible kcchamps who once used forecast models to let everyone know 70 inches of snow was coming in a two week period……………..

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

U don’t like people posting wx maps on a wx blog?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Not beyond about 48 hours in the future. Time, time and time again those cannot be trusted.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

U are correct, they cannot b trusted more times than not but do u not find them helpful to spot trends? I do understand your point I just think horrible might be the wrong word to use to describe him. Just my insignificant two cents.

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

I miss kc champs.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

If it still shows that this weekend, I might start getting excited.