Good morning bloggers,
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service, and at 6:45 AM sleet and freezing rain showers rapidly formed:
There is a huge temperature contrast that has formed again, and this will lead to a major winter storm forming. Kansas City has dropped to 19 degrees this morning, and we have trapped in the colder air and it will likely stay below freezing into Wednesday morning. A warmer surge may approach as this storm moves out into the plains tomorrow. This next map is from when I was non last night at 10 PM:
Today into Wednesday will be quite interesting as the models range from completely dry to a small ice storm. The RGEM and European models have been the most consistent and the wettest. We may get anywhere from 0.05″ to 0.65″ of liquid, and this would translate to a light glazing to up to around 0.20″ of ice possible. The higher amount would still be a rather small ice storm, and we need to pay close attention to it. Here is a picture from Jeff Penner on the air this morning showing Wednesday mornings second disturbance:
The Major Winter Storm forms right near KC Wednesday night and Thursday. This is the storm I thought would become a major winter storm, and it is about to organize:
There is a main disturbance that will rip out into the plains early Thursday morning, and this is one that has my attention. If it is just a bit deeper and stronger a few hours earlier, then this band of snow that you can see below would be stronger and it could be a two hour snow storm Thursday morning. If it is just a bit weaker, faster, and farther north, then it will just be a cold blast with flurries Thursday morning. The models have trended back to a bit stronger, so let’s see how this looks today.
There is another system that we are monitoring for Sunday into Monday. The European Model suddenly had 5 to 8 inches of snow over northern Missouri from that system, and the GFS model had snow developing Sunday in a warm advection zone. We will discuss this possibility soon. The bottom line is that we are in a more active week to ten days as I discussed a couple of weeks ago to arrive right now per the LRC.
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. A few sleet or freezing rain showers likely with some freezing drizzle developing later today. Temperatures in the 20s.
- Tonight: Sleet and freezing light rain or freezing drizzle is likely. Some light icing may lead to slick and hazardous conditions. Temperatures in the 20s.
- Wednesday: Another band of freezing light rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet is likely with temperatures rising into the lower or middle 30s. A few spots may rise above freezing.
- Thursday: Cloudy, windy, and turning colder. An Arctic Blast arrives with a chance of a two hour band of snow with a dusting to an inch possible. Temperatures dropping into the teens with wind chills below zero. Winds gusting to 45 mph.
Watch out for the slick spots that may develop. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation and have a great day.
Gary
Gary, good way to early morning. I just got woke up to thunder with Fr rain and sleet. I live just south of Warrensburg and we have close to a 1/4 inch of ice and it is falling rapidly.
WWA extended for the metro with up to 2/10″ of ice.
Just drove through a snow burst on 435 on my way home. This event is throwing some surprises
the NWS will likely put KC under a WSW or IceStorm warning tomorrow
I doubt Anything will happen
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019020600&fh=150
latest Canadian model!
Just went outside at 169 and 152 Highway and I don’t understand the WWA, 10 hours in and no measureable precipitation. Roads and sidewalks still dry and nothing on radar, but Gary says the best chance at accumulating precipitation is Thursday morning, but there is no WWA for that time period.
I am in Grain Valley and everything is covered and still have drizzle falling. Everything untreated is covered with ice.
I agree that some areas are seeing minor icing, which is causing issues, but this is the 2nd WWA my area has been under in the last 3 weeks where there was no precipitation.
We got lucky up in the northland
A dusting/glaze of a little bit of ice + snow fell in Parkville around 4-5pm.
I was just talking to some guy on the Ham radio. He claims to know some “people” with access to super computers. I’m talking real advanced stuff,
flux capacitors and all. Anyway, these models are showing major ice storms. I mean major. I’m talking another ice age. I’m talking about mass crop failure, starvation and marauding gangs who will turn to canibalism out of desperation. Ever see the movie The Road? Strap on your seatbelts. Tomorrow the sh*t gets real.
Who was it earlier giving Gary crap about titling this blog “A Winter Storm Approaches”? Whoever that was, joke is on you lol!
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=zr_acc&rh=2019020600&fh=36&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=
latest RGEM model looks impressive. has over .50″ of freezing rain/sleet?
Wouldn’t that trigger an ice storm warning?
Most likely.
It won’t because it has zero support from any other reliable model. It won’t verify.
Uh oh!
Steady light snow in OP all pavement is now white.
Edit- it just stoped
North?
I think south east Kansas May get hammered!
Just got home for the evening and was welcomed to a dusting of snow.
Can someone please clarify what 00Z means for Central time? I always get that confused…
Central standard Time is 0z -6
Central daylight time is 0z -5
So 0z is 6 pm right now and 7 pm during DST.
Thank you!
new NAM
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=zr_acc&rh=2019020600&fh=33&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=
So if you go by the latest data tomorrow morning per the NAM and HRRR won’t be bad but THU AM could see 0.2-0.4″ of freezing rain and that could be a problem.
Thursday morning is our best chance of measurable precipitation.
I’m always skeptical of maps like that which show a major event in one county and absolutely nothing in the next county over. Maybe someday we will be able to forecast with that degree of precision, but for now, it’s a flip of the coin.
More ice tonight?
My driveway in Grain Valley is completed covered. My boys were sliding down the small hill having a blast. The question is will rural schools close tomorrow. Untreated streets will be completely covered with a sheet of ice.
There probably will be closings especially with the round of precip in the morning.
I’m in GV as well and my car is a thin layer of ice. The driveway has been salted and is in good shape so far.
Really surprised GV hasn’t canceled school yet. Hate when they wait until AM when it seems like an obvious call the night before. Waiting on BS & LS but we’ll see. . .
SIdewalks and driveway in West Plaza slippery unless treated. Saw a little bit of car fishtailing by folks not aware of road conditions.
I’m in Odessa and streets from about Oak Grove and on east are ice. Not good!
Yep, I’m in OG. They’re pretty terrible
What are the chances the RGEM actually happens?
Here is the link to it.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019020518&fh=4
Drizzle/light rain back again but can’t see it on radar…why does that happen?
where are you?
Not that it will actually happen, but nice to see the possibility of one of those weak low pressures that throw snow 500 miles north of their center actually affecting KC.
Seems to be very lightly snowing in west Parkville.
What does the morning look like?
What does it look like for Saint Joseph? Do you think we will get any?
What do you guys think about the morning precipitataion?
from around 11:30 AM to 1:30 PM we had a little bit of light freezing drizzle. Then we had what I will refer to as frozen freezing drizzle the smallest sleet that I ever saw it looks like table salt. Unless this thing gets its act together I am fearful that we could have a true ice event on our hands. Our temperature is constant at 22° when I came into work this morning it was 19°. We have a long way to go to get above that freezing mark and over 24 hours in the upper teens and lower… Read more »
sunday-monday event = november 8 snow and post-christmas rain
Will there be a second round tonight?
From what I’ve seen … yes. I’d say prepare for it to be difficult in the morning to be on the safe side.
Went slow on the way home and it was fine. Just wondering about temp and precip. It could change the roads from wet to pure ice or stay just wet…. Big Question I think for everyone south metro
Still no precipitation here at 152 and 169 highway area. Roads are dry up this way.
I have seen the one weather radar, and it shows a storm well east of kc There is nothing over kc Is that right ? There is nothing over west Kansa either
I am flying in from Houston at 7:15 tonight. Should be a fun drive to Prairie Village.
I just hear sirens going non stop outside…very scary. Hope everyone is safe.
Anything that is not treated is a sheet of ice outside. Pretty bad, kids were falling down on sidewalks. I was trying to help them.
Gary was just on live and kept mentioning that roads are fine where treated and that we will just have a few slick spots through tomorrow. In Lees Summit, my experience is it’s slready much worse than a few slick spots. Several wrecks this afternoon in LS, people falling outside when I was leaving work, and my daughter saw a horrible accident right in front of her on I435 on her way home from work an hour ago. Gary seems pretty low key about it all.
There are definitely slick spots, but most roads are wet. The troubling part is that bridges and overpasses where salt has either washed away, or where they weren’t treated are icy. If you travel just 15 miles farther west it is mostly dry.
The next round arrives early in the morning.
Gary,
How do you see the early morning round in the downtown kc area? Still just light freezing drizzle? Etc.
It is actually snowing here, very strange, rooftops. Decks, everything just turned white, odd
It’s a snow grain shower. Interesting. I saw a few small snowflakes as well. They are forming in the lower layers.
Therefore, won’t show up on radar.
Same here. Can’t tell if it’s snow or tiny sleet or something else, but there’s precipitation.
This appears to have bypassed the Northland which I am fine with. Just curious if the air aloft will start to cool and change any later precipitation to snow versus freezing rain.
Any thought that the WWA could get upgraded if this continues? What is criteria for ice storm warning? Could this storm have been a sleeper until it unfolds? I hate ice so it terrifies me.
I think it is .25″ or more of freezing rain to be upgraded
Nothing going on in leavenworth or Platte city. Cloudy and dry up here
Thanks for the report Glenn.
Roads are getting bad. 30+ car pile up US-69 SB to I-435 WB flyover. Wrecks all over now.
Hi f00dl3, Is that reported somewhere or did you witness it first hand? I had plans to come to KC tonight and am gathering as much information regarding the roads as I can. Thank you.
There was no 30 car pile up it was just a few cars. Check the KC Traffic scout for good live traffic information.
Heard it on the police scanner. The officers did confirm 30+ cars involved maybe separate wrecks? Or officers were drunk?
About 6 cars now. KSHB has a live vid on their FB.
Darnit, we need to start taxing the **** out of those millionaires and this wouldn’t be happening., neither would all of the problems in Africa.. AOC AOC AOC AOC
Whut ??? 🤔
#sarcasm?????
Gonna set the early record for most minus ratings………………and very deservedly so.
any update Gary?
I would be concerned, just because of the RGEM’s good track record this season…
check out the 18z RGEM
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=zr_acc&rh=2019020518&fh=45&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=
this would not be good
Not even nearly gonna happen. Why sometimes it is best to look outside rather than sit in front of a puter.
What does everyone use to tell the road and bridge deck temperatures? I am finding a few resources, but they’re not great.
All i can tell ya is they are below freezing
What do you guys think about tomorow morning. Roads and schools etc
I would think a decent chance of no school. Even if a light event, can’t imagine they would want buses and kids driving to school.
Seems like MODOT got caught with their pants down on the weather today. Going to be bad for rush hour this evening.
This storm was under forecasted. I blame the NWS, you can’t ignore the NAM under 48hrs.
How can you blame the NWS when they issued a advisory for us 24 hours ago?
I agree how can you blame the NWS when there is a WWA in effect since noon today. That should have been when the trucks hit the road but on my drive home from downtown I did not see a single one.
The problem is The Weather Channel app, or whatever app is on peoples’ phones. No one seems to be worried right now because the forecast just shows “cloudy.”
I agree.. after 8 cars spun out on 50.. only after then a parade of modot came..
I saw MODOT trucks treating the roads before the roads since this morning. Don’t blame MODOT or NWS for people that don’t know how to drive in inclement weather. I witnessed a pickup going 70 mph when everyone else was driving the appropriate speed. Only person that crashed and burn was the person driving 70
Nothing going on up in the northland. Cloudy and dry pavement
NWS says the low tonight will be 26 degrees in Lees Summit…it’s already down to 24 degrees. Somehow the temps are all way off…??? Do you really think it will get to 32 or above tomorrow? I don’t see it.
I don’t
I sure hope the HRRR 18z is wrong, because that’s border line ice storm.
Actual precip shield beginning to develop in SW KS lifting up towards metro, a lot more impressive than the drizzle we have been seeing on radar. Looks to time out around rush hour give or take an hour. I can see this giving metro a solid glazing and impacting travel this eve
GO KSU!!
#POWERCAT
The majority of that precip should slide off south and east of the immediate metro? Definitely farther south so little impact up north thank goodness
Go cats! From a mizzou guy
I’m a born MIZZU guy too, but went to Kstate and I just say I’m into big exotic cats. Cats eat birds by the way
Lol
Best comment in the history of this blog!
Modot.org now showing partly covered for most SE of KC, changing quickly. This seems to be just in front of the precip moving in from E. of Wichita Gary mentioned.