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Good morning bloggers,

1

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service, and at 6:45 AM sleet and freezing rain showers rapidly formed:

Screen Shot 2019-02-05 at 6.39.37 AM

There is a huge temperature contrast that has formed again, and this will lead to a major winter storm forming.  Kansas City has dropped to 19 degrees this morning, and we have trapped in the colder air and it will likely stay below freezing into Wednesday morning.  A warmer surge may approach as this storm moves out into the plains tomorrow.  This next map is from when I was non last night at 10 PM:

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Today into Wednesday will be quite interesting as the models range from completely dry to a small ice storm. The RGEM and European models have been the  most consistent and the wettest.  We may get anywhere from 0.05″ to 0.65″ of liquid, and this would translate to a light glazing to up to around 0.20″ of ice possible.  The higher amount would still be a rather small ice storm, and we need to pay close attention to it.  Here is a picture from Jeff Penner on the air this morning showing Wednesday mornings second disturbance:

The Major Winter Storm forms right near KC Wednesday night and Thursday. This is the storm I thought would become a major winter storm, and it is about to organize:

12

There is a main disturbance that will rip out into the plains early Thursday morning, and this is one that has my attention. If it is just a bit deeper and stronger a few hours earlier, then this band of snow that you can see below would be stronger and it could be a two hour snow storm Thursday morning. If it is just a bit weaker, faster, and farther north, then it will just be a cold blast with flurries Thursday morning.  The models have trended back to a bit stronger, so let’s see how this looks today.

11

There is another system that we are monitoring for Sunday into Monday. The European Model suddenly had 5 to 8 inches of snow over northern Missouri from that system, and the GFS model had snow developing Sunday in a warm advection zone. We will discuss this possibility soon. The bottom line is that we are in a more active week to ten days as I discussed a couple of weeks ago to arrive right now per the LRC.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.  A few sleet or freezing rain showers likely with some freezing drizzle developing later today.  Temperatures in the 20s.
  • Tonight:  Sleet and freezing light rain or freezing drizzle is likely.  Some light icing may lead to slick and hazardous conditions.  Temperatures in the 20s.
  • Wednesday:  Another band of freezing light rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet is likely with temperatures rising into the lower or middle 30s. A few spots may rise above freezing.
  • Thursday:  Cloudy, windy, and turning colder. An Arctic Blast arrives with a chance of a two hour band of snow with a dusting to an inch possible. Temperatures dropping into the teens with wind chills below zero. Winds gusting to 45 mph.

Watch out for the slick spots that may develop. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation and have a great day.

Gary

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Clint
Guest
Clint

Gary, good way to early morning. I just got woke up to thunder with Fr rain and sleet. I live just south of Warrensburg and we have close to a 1/4 inch of ice and it is falling rapidly.

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

WWA extended for the metro with up to 2/10″ of ice.

Katharidinaus
Guest
Katharidinaus

Just drove through a snow burst on 435 on my way home. This event is throwing some surprises

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

the NWS will likely put KC under a WSW or IceStorm warning tomorrow

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

I doubt Anything will happen

John
Guest
John

Just went outside at 169 and 152 Highway and I don’t understand the WWA, 10 hours in and no measureable precipitation. Roads and sidewalks still dry and nothing on radar, but Gary says the best chance at accumulating precipitation is Thursday morning, but there is no WWA for that time period.

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

I am in Grain Valley and everything is covered and still have drizzle falling. Everything untreated is covered with ice.

John
Guest
John

I agree that some areas are seeing minor icing, which is causing issues, but this is the 2nd WWA my area has been under in the last 3 weeks where there was no precipitation.

Lynn
Guest
Lynn

We got lucky up in the northland

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

A dusting/glaze of a little bit of ice + snow fell in Parkville around 4-5pm.

Dale Gribble
Guest
Dale Gribble

I was just talking to some guy on the Ham radio. He claims to know some “people” with access to super computers. I’m talking real advanced stuff,
flux capacitors and all. Anyway, these models are showing major ice storms. I mean major. I’m talking another ice age. I’m talking about mass crop failure, starvation and marauding gangs who will turn to canibalism out of desperation. Ever see the movie The Road? Strap on your seatbelts. Tomorrow the sh*t gets real.

Josh
Guest
Josh

Who was it earlier giving Gary crap about titling this blog “A Winter Storm Approaches”? Whoever that was, joke is on you lol!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=zr_acc&rh=2019020600&fh=36&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

latest RGEM model looks impressive. has over .50″ of freezing rain/sleet?

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Wouldn’t that trigger an ice storm warning?

Josh
Guest
Josh

Most likely.

Adam
Guest
Adam

It won’t because it has zero support from any other reliable model. It won’t verify.

Austin Braddock
Guest
Austin Braddock

Uh oh!

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Steady light snow in OP all pavement is now white.
Edit- it just stoped

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

North?

Austin Braddock
Guest
Austin Braddock

I think south east Kansas May get hammered!

Curtis
Guest
Curtis

Just got home for the evening and was welcomed to a dusting of snow.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Can someone please clarify what 00Z means for Central time? I always get that confused…

Katharidinaus
Guest
Katharidinaus

Central standard Time is 0z -6
Central daylight time is 0z -5

So 0z is 6 pm right now and 7 pm during DST.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Thank you!

jcling64056
Guest
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So if you go by the latest data tomorrow morning per the NAM and HRRR won’t be bad but THU AM could see 0.2-0.4″ of freezing rain and that could be a problem.

comment image

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

I’m always skeptical of maps like that which show a major event in one county and absolutely nothing in the next county over. Maybe someday we will be able to forecast with that degree of precision, but for now, it’s a flip of the coin.

Patrick
Guest
Patrick

More ice tonight?

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

My driveway in Grain Valley is completed covered. My boys were sliding down the small hill having a blast. The question is will rural schools close tomorrow. Untreated streets will be completely covered with a sheet of ice.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

There probably will be closings especially with the round of precip in the morning.

Justin
Guest
Justin

I’m in GV as well and my car is a thin layer of ice. The driveway has been salted and is in good shape so far.

2soccerboyz
Guest
2soccerboyz

Really surprised GV hasn’t canceled school yet. Hate when they wait until AM when it seems like an obvious call the night before. Waiting on BS & LS but we’ll see. . .

Jason
Guest

SIdewalks and driveway in West Plaza slippery unless treated. Saw a little bit of car fishtailing by folks not aware of road conditions.

Natasha
Guest
Natasha

I’m in Odessa and streets from about Oak Grove and on east are ice. Not good!

Lora B
Guest
Lora B

Yep, I’m in OG. They’re pretty terrible

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

What are the chances the RGEM actually happens?

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Drizzle/light rain back again but can’t see it on radar…why does that happen?

dstorm
Guest
dstorm

where are you?

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Not that it will actually happen, but nice to see the possibility of one of those weak low pressures that throw snow 500 miles north of their center actually affecting KC. comment image

EastOfEden
Guest
EastOfEden

Seems to be very lightly snowing in west Parkville.

JVossboss
Guest
JVossboss

What does the morning look like?

Michele Springs
Guest

What does it look like for Saint Joseph? Do you think we will get any?

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

What do you guys think about the morning precipitataion?

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

from around 11:30 AM to 1:30 PM we had a little bit of light freezing drizzle. Then we had what I will refer to as frozen freezing drizzle the smallest sleet that I ever saw it looks like table salt. Unless this thing gets its act together I am fearful that we could have a true ice event on our hands. Our temperature is constant at 22° when I came into work this morning it was 19°. We have a long way to go to get above that freezing mark and over 24 hours in the upper teens and lower… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

sunday-monday event = november 8 snow and post-christmas rain

LoveMO
Guest
LoveMO

Will there be a second round tonight?

Adam
Guest
Adam

From what I’ve seen … yes. I’d say prepare for it to be difficult in the morning to be on the safe side.

LoveMO
Guest
LoveMO

Went slow on the way home and it was fine. Just wondering about temp and precip. It could change the roads from wet to pure ice or stay just wet…. Big Question I think for everyone south metro

John
Guest
John

Still no precipitation here at 152 and 169 highway area. Roads are dry up this way.

Cmw
Member
Cmw

I have seen the one weather radar, and it shows a storm well east of kc There is nothing over kc Is that right ? There is nothing over west Kansa either

Jason Rann
Guest
Jason Rann

I am flying in from Houston at 7:15 tonight. Should be a fun drive to Prairie Village.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

I just hear sirens going non stop outside…very scary. Hope everyone is safe.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Anything that is not treated is a sheet of ice outside. Pretty bad, kids were falling down on sidewalks. I was trying to help them.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Gary was just on live and kept mentioning that roads are fine where treated and that we will just have a few slick spots through tomorrow. In Lees Summit, my experience is it’s slready much worse than a few slick spots. Several wrecks this afternoon in LS, people falling outside when I was leaving work, and my daughter saw a horrible accident right in front of her on I435 on her way home from work an hour ago. Gary seems pretty low key about it all.

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

It is actually snowing here, very strange, rooftops. Decks, everything just turned white, odd

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Same here. Can’t tell if it’s snow or tiny sleet or something else, but there’s precipitation.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

This appears to have bypassed the Northland which I am fine with. Just curious if the air aloft will start to cool and change any later precipitation to snow versus freezing rain.

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

Any thought that the WWA could get upgraded if this continues? What is criteria for ice storm warning? Could this storm have been a sleeper until it unfolds? I hate ice so it terrifies me.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

I think it is .25″ or more of freezing rain to be upgraded

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

Nothing going on in leavenworth or Platte city. Cloudy and dry up here

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Thanks for the report Glenn.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Roads are getting bad. 30+ car pile up US-69 SB to I-435 WB flyover. Wrecks all over now.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Hi f00dl3, Is that reported somewhere or did you witness it first hand? I had plans to come to KC tonight and am gathering as much information regarding the roads as I can. Thank you.

CaptainKU
Guest
CaptainKU

There was no 30 car pile up it was just a few cars. Check the KC Traffic scout for good live traffic information.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Heard it on the police scanner. The officers did confirm 30+ cars involved maybe separate wrecks? Or officers were drunk?

JasonA
Guest
JasonA

About 6 cars now. KSHB has a live vid on their FB.

Nate
Guest
Nate

Darnit, we need to start taxing the **** out of those millionaires and this wouldn’t be happening., neither would all of the problems in Africa.. AOC AOC AOC AOC

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Whut ??? 🤔

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

#sarcasm?????

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Gonna set the early record for most minus ratings………………and very deservedly so.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

any update Gary?

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

I would be concerned, just because of the RGEM’s good track record this season…

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056
jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

this would not be good

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Not even nearly gonna happen. Why sometimes it is best to look outside rather than sit in front of a puter.

Josh
Guest
Josh

What does everyone use to tell the road and bridge deck temperatures? I am finding a few resources, but they’re not great.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

All i can tell ya is they are below freezing

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

What do you guys think about tomorow morning. Roads and schools etc

Jason
Guest
Jason

I would think a decent chance of no school. Even if a light event, can’t imagine they would want buses and kids driving to school.

JohnS
Guest
JohnS

Seems like MODOT got caught with their pants down on the weather today. Going to be bad for rush hour this evening.

Clint
Guest
Clint

This storm was under forecasted. I blame the NWS, you can’t ignore the NAM under 48hrs.

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

How can you blame the NWS when they issued a advisory for us 24 hours ago?

John
Guest
John

I agree how can you blame the NWS when there is a WWA in effect since noon today. That should have been when the trucks hit the road but on my drive home from downtown I did not see a single one.

Jessi Kamler
Guest
Jessi Kamler

The problem is The Weather Channel app, or whatever app is on peoples’ phones. No one seems to be worried right now because the forecast just shows “cloudy.”

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

I agree.. after 8 cars spun out on 50.. only after then a parade of modot came..

Lincoln
Guest
Lincoln

I saw MODOT trucks treating the roads before the roads since this morning. Don’t blame MODOT or NWS for people that don’t know how to drive in inclement weather. I witnessed a pickup going 70 mph when everyone else was driving the appropriate speed. Only person that crashed and burn was the person driving 70

Glenn
Guest
Glenn

Nothing going on up in the northland. Cloudy and dry pavement

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

NWS says the low tonight will be 26 degrees in Lees Summit…it’s already down to 24 degrees. Somehow the temps are all way off…??? Do you really think it will get to 32 or above tomorrow? I don’t see it.

Clint
Guest
Clint

I don’t

North Topeka
Guest

I sure hope the HRRR 18z is wrong, because that’s border line ice storm.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Actual precip shield beginning to develop in SW KS lifting up towards metro, a lot more impressive than the drizzle we have been seeing on radar. Looks to time out around rush hour give or take an hour. I can see this giving metro a solid glazing and impacting travel this eve
GO KSU!!
#POWERCAT

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

The majority of that precip should slide off south and east of the immediate metro? Definitely farther south so little impact up north thank goodness

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Go cats! From a mizzou guy

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I’m a born MIZZU guy too, but went to Kstate and I just say I’m into big exotic cats. Cats eat birds by the way
Lol

Clint
Guest
Clint

Best comment in the history of this blog!

Gerald Beebe
Guest
Gerald Beebe

Modot.org now showing partly covered for most SE of KC, changing quickly. This seems to be just in front of the precip moving in from E. of Wichita Gary mentioned.