Another Cold Blast Arrives: Video Blog Today

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Good morning  bloggers,

3

The temperatures dropped from the 50s into the 30s abruptly at 6 AM this morning with some very light misty rain. The forecast is rather complex and nothing very organized is showing up at the moment. Let’s see how it lines up from day to day. Here is a video blog:

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day.  Go over to Weather2020.com to join in the conversation.  Have a great day.

Gary

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Elaine Watson. McLouthA1hoopsMattJVossbossf00dl3 Recent comment authors
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Elaine Watson. McLouth
Guest
Elaine Watson. McLouth

Brief three minute sleet event here east of McLouth.

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

Freezing rain/sleet at 435 and metcalf

JVossboss
Guest
JVossboss

Please update! Very curious of this weather…

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So I’m looking at the 06z GFS and I don’t see this ice storm people are saying it shows…. comment image

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

It’s 4:15 AM (2/5) and no morning update to the NWS forecast discussion. The last blog entry here provides a model reflecting more icy conditions than previously advertised. I’m very interested in an update.

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

Aha…now the NWS update comes (although the time stamp is earlier than when it actually posted…at least for me!).

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056
Clint
Guest
Clint

I am very worried about this. The NAM and RGEM do very well at this range and have both been showing these amounts for over a day, Are temps are way colder than the other models show, this is being way under sold in my opinion.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Almost One inch of Ice no good.

Clint
Guest
Clint

GFS is turning icy.

Michele Springs
Guest

Any idea when this icy event will occur in St Joseph? Also will this be a huge impact on the roads?

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Sunset now at 5:45, gaining daylight more rapidly by the day. Royals 1st spring training game 2 weeks from Saturday, tick tock winter lovers, tick freakin’ tock baby!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

U trying to get a blog beat down in here emaw? Lol. What’s your prediction? Oh wait …….I. Think I know it…lol.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Yep Jack Squat’s my call brother, Stay warm up there on the frozen tundra.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Sunday/Monday snow? We’ve had an awesome winter for snow lovers. I wouldn’t mind one or two more decent snows before we head into spring. No ice though…yuck.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Can’t come too soon for me!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Kind of interesting we will have CAPE values of 1000+ J/Kg if the NAM is right tomorrow w/ the chance of freezing rain.comment image

If we do get thunderstorms w/ the freezing rain that will throw a weird element into the mix.

Matt
Guest
Matt

We still have other runs to come out. Weather Channel says Ice for area.

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

I’m a bit confused on winter weather advisories. Reading the blog and the comments it sounds like nothing is going to happen. Maybe some freezing rain but nothing crazy or widespread so why is there a winter weather advisory? Has something changed or is this a precautionary step since the models are all over the place?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Just a little ice often times warrant a wwa

Elaine Watson. McLouth
Guest
Elaine Watson. McLouth

I think that it doesn’t take much freezing drizzle to cause some problems unlike a small amount of snow. This might be why they issued it, but like you seems like it is patchy and uncertain so I am a bit surprised. There was a brief advisory issued in my are for a few hours this morning but nothing materialized so an advisory could amount to nothing.

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

Ah I see! Thank you both for the clarification!

Ted
Guest
Ted

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE. ONE THING NO ONE WANTS. Sorry for the, I use voice recognition software and I had them locked on by accident. Really difficult to determine what will happen. I am hoping this thing rides up over us and takes the precipitation in Nebraska and Iowa leaving us with little D formation band of next to nothing. It was very nice out last yesterday afternoon and I enjoyed two or three hours outdoors with 65°. Sunshine as well!

shoedog (Leawood)
Guest
shoedog (Leawood)

Winter Weather Advisory just issued for Johnson County KS, Jackson County MO and some counties north for Freezing Rain through Wed Am.

MICHELE Springs
Guest

winter weather advisory in Saint joseph

Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

Winter Weather Advisory

brad
Guest
brad

winter weather advisory issued for KC

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Yesterday’s 42 sure felt nice. Winter came right back though. Currently 17 with snow showers. Starting to get a little spring fever

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

Im with ya, I do enjoy snow storms, but 1 or two more and thats it. The teases of 65 yesterday, and before were feelin real good.

EastOfEden (snowflakeparkville is bored with name)
Guest
EastOfEden (snowflakeparkville is bored with name)

I say bring on the snow and let’s replicate March 1960!

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Sure, let’s shut down the city, have some great power outages, subzero temperatures, a few heart attacks, more potholes, wrecks, and a few thousand dead trees. Love it!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

18z NAM seems to show the ice starting a bit earlier. And back north again.

Jeffg
Guest

All the models are struggling with these solutions. It is strange because there isn’t any widespread precipitation, just little patches of freezing rain/sleet.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Someone mentioned a possible storm, per the LRC, around Feb 11-12.
I know its entirely way too soon for models on that, but if it coincides, was it a light rain or heavy rain event ?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Snow the first time around and rain the second time.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

It will be a close temperature call but should lean toward rain.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Well it’s still in the 20s right now. Something tells me we are not hitting 44 for sure, and probably not even 35. So the air is colder than any model has forecasted so far.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

I noticed that earlier. It’s been 26 for hours now in Parkville, and it’s getting to the point where I’m beginning to think we might not even reach 30!

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I don’t know about Parkville (wherever that is), but so far, KCI hasn’t gone above 29°.
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMCI.html

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Was that the daytime high of 44, or just the high? I haven’t seen hourly temps today yet, but could it have been 44 beteeen midnight and now before the cold air rushed in?

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary what’s actually you’re take on the storm do you think will happen ? Do you think this storm could Intensify like the anythere did at last minute like the other storms have ?

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

I watched/listened to the video blog, really looks disorganized and not very likely to have anything impactful. Terry, all the models are trended to something less organized, I just looked at the 12Z GFS, FV3, ICON and CMC. I don’t think there is going to be much and I don’t think Gary is on board with one solution yet. It’s a wait and see, but not looking like it’s going to be a big event for our area. I am perfectly fine with no snow or lots of ice for a few weeks, I have business travel next week and… Read more »

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

The 66 hour GFS forecast has Kansas City at 58 degrees. The ICON, Canadian, NAM, WRF and EURO all have us in the 20s or 30s. Worthless.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Good Warm Weather and hopefully warmer for Severe Weather because not been mentioned for anywhere yet.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

What is the gfs proves to be correct? I highly doubt it but who knows right.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

That would be even worse because that would mean a bunch of models were 20-30 degrees off instead of just one model being 20-30 degrees off.

Clint
Guest
Clint

I call for the GFS to retire, it has been garbage all year.

Meagan K
Guest
Meagan K

I’m travelling from KC to Tulsa and back on Wednesday for work. Leaving around 6:30am and will probably arrive back home at 10:00pm. Do you think I need to reschedule with my client? Will freezing rain impact my trip?

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

Poof alert!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Wow, huge shift south! Tulsa and Columbia hit hard now.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Why would Columbia get hit hard closer to I-70 then I-44?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville
Jim
Guest
Jim

Did I miss the part where an actual prediction or forecast for the week was made? It is Monday.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

It’s complex!😉

Jim
Guest
Jim

If only there were a theory or practice that used data and patterns from the past to help make predictions on future events…

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

12z NAM backs off considerably. Non-event. 0.08″ zr

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I buy this solution

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Still wait…the event didn’t finish until hour 81 on the 06z. In fact, it didn’t even really get going until hour 75.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Yes there are several waves. I’m just stating that I buy this solution through hr 51. I agree let’s see what is says after it’s finalized

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

0.15″ through hr 75. Typical Tulsa/I-44 ice storm.
comment image

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

A near-classic setup for major ice accumulations. El Nino vs. the Arctic.

Clint
Guest
Clint

12Z NAM gives me .42 ice NOT GOOD!

Kaden
Guest
Kaden
Kaden
Guest
Kaden

i cant accsess the video

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

Can we please not post Video blogs? Work blocks them.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

12z NAM on the way out now…we’ll see…

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I don’t have time to watch video at the moment, is Gary buying the ice currently being depicted by the Nam?

Clint
Guest
Clint

He showed it and the GFS and basically I have no clue which model he prefers based on that video.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Ok thx Clint, I should have a few min here in a bit to catch the viseo and check in on the nam

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Monday to you sir!! I was out this morning when the front cam through….pretty cool! 🙂 Based on my own hobbyist interpretation of the LRC, one of these waves will be more organized than the overnight GFS Classic showed. If I had to wager, I would have to wager on the one for Monday/Tuesday which lines up with the December 27th wave…I think?? I fully realize the overnight GFS Classic had nothing but a front next Monday/Tuesday but it showed a more organized storm for then on yesterday’s runs so I would respectfully argue it is worth watching.… Read more »

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

So are we having a winter storm this week or not? Need to know whether I need to break out the poof powers

Jeffg
Guest

I would save your poof powers for another time. I think we might get some light precip sometime this week, but not a very organized one. However with the cold temps a little freezing rain could cause some slick streets. I think next Monday or Tuesday might be the next chance for anything organized as Bill stated.

Gabe
Guest
Gabe

First