Winter Returns Monday, Tricky Forecast

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Good Sunday bloggers,

Sunday is starting 60 degrees warmer than it was Wednesday morning.  When you factor in the wind chill it is 80 degrees warmer! We are in for another big change as colder air heads south at the same time a series of storm systems come in from the Pacific Ocean, track east into the Rockies and then through the Plains and Midwest.

The forecast is tricky for many reasons. These systems will bring rain south, ice in the middle and snow north. The locations of the precipitation types is dependent on how deep the cold air gets in your area. It also depends on the track and strength of these systems.  That is about every variable we look at. So, basically, we have to take this forecast one day at a time. Below we will give you our latest thinking.

First, do you remember before October 5th how dry it was? We were in a drought just as the old pattern was ending. Then, a new pattern, the 2018-19 LRC, began to get it’s act together and the drought was wiped out in 10 days. This was the start of an active weather pattern and it is still cycling along.  We have received 17″ of rain (melted snow/ice) which is a bit over 9″ above average. Granted, this above average precipitation is mostly due to October, but it is hard to see heavy precipitation totals during the winter.  Now, let’s get to the active week ahead.

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SUNDAY: It will be mostly cloudy, windy and mild with highs around 60°. If we see any sun this afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 60s. If you are headed out this evening to a Superbowl party, the weather looks great. Temperatures will be around 60° and windy.

1

EARLY MONDAY MORNING: The first of two cold front will sweep through. Temperatures will be in the 50s, but drop to the 30s by afternoon. The second cold front will merge with the first one pretty rapidly. We may see a few showers or some drizzle ahead of the first cold front.

2

MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: It will become mostly sunny, but colder, with temperatures in the 30s along with a north wind at 10-25 mph.

3

TUESDAY: This is when the forecast becomes quite a challenge. The first system will bring a few freezing rain and sleet showers around noon. They will move east and become more widespread. So, not only are we on the western edge of this storm, but temperatures will be critical. If it stays below freezing we could see some slick roads. If it rises to 32 or higher, then we will have just rain and wet roads.

4

WEDNESDAY: A second system tracks across the region with snow north, ice in the middle and rain south. This data has our area in the rain with temperatures in the mid 30s. What if it is in the mid 20?  Well, we could see freezing rain and sleet. Also, how strong is this storm?  And, so many other questions.

5

THURSDAY: A third system is possible and this data has us in the colder air, but the storm tracking south.  All of these systems will bring some amount of rain, ice and snow. We just need to figure out where and how much? Be patient and let’s take it one day at a time.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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MattStl78(winon,mn)f00dl3Rich (east of Topeka)SnowBadger Recent comment authors
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Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Tough forecast all around. I sure hope the Nam is incorrect for u guys but KC is overdue for an ice storm. Even if half were to verify it would be terrible! Mets up here are having issues too. Loss of ice in the clouds could prove to b problematic up this way as well. Hopefully there will be a better consensus on this mornings runs

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

58 at Olathe Johnson County, 35 at KCI.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

06z NAM gives KC 1.35″ of freezing rain. But here’s the thing – the NAM and CMC historically have a cold bias. The GFS historically underestimates cold. I think we won’t know until we see what the cold front does to today’s highs.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

latest CMC has a significant winter weather event for the KC area

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=zr_acc&rh=2019020400&fh=84&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Matt
Guest
Matt

Almost to much Ice.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

The NWS forecast mentions “freezing rain” ten times! Seems to be the theme for the week….

Matt
Guest
Matt

Yes they do and if it happens Ice Storm will happen. Also says for 66212 Thursday Night low of 7.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

HRRR looks like the GFS. Front washes out just past KC and we rebound to mid-upper 40s Monday PM. Would imply rain event no frozen precip concerns as temps on HRRR and GFS 20 degrees offset from NAM

Someweatherdude
Guest
Someweatherdude

Reason number 225 not to trust the models. Right now the NAM and GFS are almost 30 degrees apart for Wednesday. The Icon, Canadian and WRF agree with the NAM. Someone’s wrong.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

It hit 71° at 3PM at the Manhattan airport today, but only got to 67° here 25 miles north of Manhattan. and the bottom drops out tomorrow.

Terry
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Terry

We all know how fast things On the models change to no storm to a storm. It’s happened this winter.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Curious to see what the models show this time tomorrow and also see what Gary’s take is. LIke I said, Joe L. mentioned ice Wed and snow Thurs. NWS was talking about ice.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

If the gfs is right and trends on last two days has been to hold colder air farther north and a farther north storm track. Just depends on what verifies. I’d prefer to be on the warmer side, nice to just have only mud to deal with for now. Just wait and see, might not be a winter storm.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

We ll know soon enough. Gary been abnormally quiet on the blog this weekend….Curious to see what he says on Monday

Matt
Guest
Matt

Gary’s been off since Thursday.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Nope. Gary wrote blog on Friday and was on air Friday night.

Terry
Guest
Terry

Gary still writes the blogs even if hes off from work Sometimes no matter what.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Terry
That is true. But Gary wasn’t off Thursday or Friday
Watched him on air both nights

Matt
Guest
Matt

Then was off Wednesday.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yup…he often makes a comment on the weekend, esp. with winter weather expected the next week. Not always though…may just be too many unknowns still. Andrew..I said the weekend..that is Sat and Sun.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

ahhhhh

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Wow, some awfully benign comments and observations seem to be getting you all riled up there Andrew, for some reason. Mabye you could use a blog break? Nothing the slightest bit wrong or inaccurate with any of those things. You might try to lighten up a bit there buddy…it’s weather blog…try to have some fun.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Sure did…played some tennis in fact. A bit windy, but nice mild temps.

Matt
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Matt

Want it in 70’s or 80’s?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Joe L. says possible ice issue Tues/Wed…possible snow issues Thursday.

Kurt
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Kurt

And he’s gospel? You sure as hell like to stir the pot on here today Heat? Hope you got out and enjoyed the warm day.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

LoL..how on earth is that stirring the pot?

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I got to say, while the upcoming weather is interesting, the voting committee on comments is absolutely great! Lol

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gotta love it

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

considering the GFS is 20degrees warmer than the NAM at 66-84 hours, I side with the NAM

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Here’s a concern: if the 18z GFS is wrong on temps but right on QPF, the 3/4″-1.25″ ice storm will be in KC, not I-44.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

ugggh…love snow, but not ice. Winter storm is coming..question is, will it be ice/sleet/snow…all of the above?

Matt
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Matt

It is Spring so more Ice chances but we don’t need power out again or lose limbs but would the same if Severe Weather but also damage can happen.

Rich (east of Topeka)
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Rich (east of Topeka)

When did Feb 3rd become Spring??

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2019020318&fh=81

This looks like a severe weather set up for next cycles version of this storm in late March.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Early Severe Weather.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Heat Miser getting down voted like a boss today. Good work bloggers!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Have you overcome your depression for all the snow we’ve had this year Poof? LOL

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

11 more down votes! Go Heat go!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol..says the guy who comes to a weather blog to troll snow lovers.

jcling64056
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jcling64056

comment image

Weatherfreaker
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Weatherfreaker

How much rain or liquid equivalent do you expect over the next week in Lees Summit? Trying to decide if I need to go out and drain the pool down again so it doesn’t get too full…such a pain in the winter with it covered. I’ve hardly ever had to do it in the winter, but this would be the third time this year.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=zr_acc&rh=2019020318&fh=81&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

NAM out to 84hours has more than a quarter inch of ice for the metro. will be interesting to see what it looks like on tonights data

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Yep….ice. hope it’s wrong

Matt
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Matt

That’s a lot of Ice.

DesertQueen
Guest
DesertQueen

I really hope that is very wrong.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Yea not looking like a big deal all the models have little precip for kc so amounts will be light, not a major storm here.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It’s almost 70 out! From -6F WED to this —- wow!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

new NAM is coming out now, lets see what it has to say

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

I agree with Jeff. This week will be tricky forecasting. Why? The problem child – the 850mb layer which will be warmer and carrying moisture. Both the EURO and GFS show periods of freezing rain or sleet and rain scattered throughout the area. Just hope the surface temps are warm enough. Oh joy 🙁

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

And on the other side of the globe in the southern hemisphere Queensland Australia is getting slammed with record breaking rain, flooding and yes, tornados. A persistente trough coupled with a low pressure system has brought wave after wave of heavy rain. By next weekend they will have received between 1200mm to 1400mm in one week. That’s over 40 inches of rain! Further south to Tasmania a brutal heatwave and drought is occurring. We’ve had one severe arctic blast, and I hope not to see another. Weather extremes happening around the planet. For a good read on this and how… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

I’ve been saying for several days now: this supposed winter storm will not materialize as predicted. Maybe we’ll get a dusting or something – not ruling that out – but this part of the pattern in both of its past occurrences has consisted of warmth and dryness.

Roger
Guest
Roger

I agree totally!

Becca
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Becca

I agree! I said this yesterday that I was so confused as to why Gary was even suggesting a big storm over a couple of model runs that have been terrible, especially this far out. All previous LRC cycles had this being a somewhat dry/boring period until an expected storm around Feb 11th which matches up to the rain event around Christmas. I am just not understanding the hype.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Hmmm…seems Gary disagrees with you as he expects a major winter storm in our area. I guess we will see who turns out to be right.

Roger
Guest
Roger

Stl78, I think you guys are going to get CRUSHED with snow this month! Meanwhile, the more I hope and wish for snow here in south-central Kansas, the more times we get dry-slotted. I can count on one hand (maybe 1 finger) how many times we got 3+ inches of snow (Dec 14, 2014). Sure, we can see temperature fluctuations, no problem. It reached 65-70 here yesterday. Today will be 70-75. Then it will come crashing down by next weekend. My forecast for February for your area on average: 30.3 inches of snow.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I wouldn’t b surprised as we are still behind on snowfall. I don’t care at this point. The 80 hrs I worked last week due to the extreme cold and snow was enough! I can handle some more snow if thats the case but i sure hope the Arctic air stays north. This first wave looks to keep my local in mostly rain with maybe a little mix on the back side. Tues through Fri could b interesting as it stands now. I do think there will be plenty more winter for u guys and wouldn’t b surprised if it’s.… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

models are notoriously bad this far out…dont forget that.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

It’s only 3 or 4 days away, and now like 3 runs in a row on every model with no winter storm until east of KC. I’ll wait for NAM, but you’re grasping at straws now if youre still hoping for snow after the last few runs. The models have been good this year when a trend shows up.
Still a parade of systems in the next 2 weeks, either going to rain or snow several times in Feb.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Agreed, that’s why I stated below I think frz rain may b the major concern. Maybe a bit of snow as it pulls east. I just don’t see a large accumulating snow as it stands now. Hopefully it will trend better today.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

I’m not saying it’s definitely going to snow. Far from it. BUT … the GFS and FV3 both had rain for KC until about 12 hours prior to the November Blizzard. The GFS had only a trace amount of snow for KC two days before the January 12th snowstorm, and parts of the City got 12 inches. In fact, I just looked back. The GFS 00z run on 1.11.19 showed Johnson County getting 0.5 inches of snow on 1.11 and 1.12. Even the 12Z run that day had us getting about 1-2 inches. We got a foot. So to say… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Very true somewxdude, the models can change but at this point they are all showing similar outcomes. Let’s see what the rest of the day holds before jumping to conclusions. 🤞the models diverge on a positive trend for u guys!

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Naw…a lot of the models have shown nice quantities of snow the last few days. Four days out until Thursday…I guess we will see soon. Gary did say he thinks a major winter storm in our area is likely.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I just hope its snow and not lots of ice…nothing good about ice.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Heat Miser
How could we forget ? You keep reminding us

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Dude – it’s Sunday. The storm starts really having a influence on us Tuesday. It’s 2 days away. It’s not far out. I think your just disappointed because Gary may be wrong at his interpretation of the LRC that we would have a major winter storm this week – because right now it looks like the chance of anything more than a dusting / light glaze is pretty far fetched. I don’t even think we will see a Winter Weather Advisory at this rate. Especially if latest trends in the GFS hold to where the models are showing the warm… Read more »

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Gfs sucks

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I wish that was the case, but if a model “sucks” because it doesn’t show us getting much snow, then the GFS, GFS FV3, NAM, GEM, CMC, Euro, and Icon all suck. And that’s about all of ’em. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/kansas/snow-depth-in/20190209-1800z.html

SnowBadger
Guest

Heat you are just the Blog Mascot. You are a Snow wisher with no knowledge of how to read maps. I’m not bashing you, I like you, but I think you just need to remain the mascot and maybe pull your nose a bit out of the NAM, GFS, Euro and 00z maps bum crack. Get out of the house more. Cheerio!

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image This is the GFS 12z run the low tracks just of us. Could be quite interesting to see what goes on.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

Tricky Dicky Forecast. 👀

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

Thank you, Big Papa Roger!

Joe
Guest
Joe

We all know what they mean when they say “tricky forecast”…please keep checking back but the winter precipitation is going to misss KC

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Or when the word “complex” is used…

Zachary
Guest
Zachary

Nope it’s going to wobble but it’s looking more and more like a nearly ice storm setup

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…actually it means they dont know. Sometimes when they say that we get it good, sometimes it misses us. Gary is still saying a major winter storm for us is likely. It’s just how much of which kind of precip that seems to be in question.

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

Gary is still saying ? He hasn’t chimed in since Friday.
We really don’t know what he is thinking at this point.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Sensing a Poof watch coming circa Tuesday lasting until Friday. Fingers crossed!

Mike
Guest
Mike

Comparing the rainfall amount above, it is clear that lrc cannot predict the precipitation based on the previous cycle. Hope that our area won’t go into drought when spring comes.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

We’ll be fine. 2017-2018 began to dry out as early as November 2017. This year’s pattern has shown no evidence of doing that.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Spring is here but Mother Nature still thinks it’s Winter.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

It’s February 3rd…its still winter.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I think these systems will be a non issue for KC as it stands now. I foresee a worst case scenario of a frz rain set up possible but not seeing any large accumulating snows. Maybe today’s runs will change my opinion but as it stands now I think these waves will affect us up here in the upper Midwest. Might make it up to the low 40s today! Will melt a little snow and then probably add to our snow pack several times this week with a return to more seasonable air. Have a nice sun KC!

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

This reminds me of when my second grade son’s classmates tell him they have a toy he doesn’t.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

That’s not my attempt. I don’t want the snow this go around. This last round of bitter cold and snow took alot out of me. I’m just telling u what I see in the models at this point. I actually hope u guys get hit, I’m just not seeing it right now. Maybe 12z runs will start trending in your direction. Cheers to KC snow.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I’m thinking a decent chance of a good snow.

Mikeyc11@hotmail.com
Guest
Mikeyc11@hotmail.com

Middle!

Mike Holm
Guest

Last