Winter is Not Over, Groundhog is Wrong

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good Saturday bloggers or Happy Groundhog day,

This is by far, my least favorite holiday. I just don’t get it.  The groundhog says it will be an early Spring as he did not see his shadow. In Punxsutawney they say he has not been wrong for 133 straight years!  Does he use the LRC?  No, because the LRC does not suggest an early Spring and actually he has been right 39% of the time. Now, I do like the movie with Bill Murray.

Let’s get to real weather. This morning we are running 25 degrees above average which is 50 degrees warmer than it was Wednesday morning.  This roller coaster ride will continue as winter returns next week.

SATURDAY: Today will be cloudy, breezy and mild with highs 50°-55°. There will be areas of fog and the chance of drizzle. The roads become wet overnight without a drop of rain. It is due to condensation as the warmer, humid air flows over the cold ground. It is just like a cold coke can outside in the summer, the outer part of the can turns wet.

5

SUNDAY MORNING: It will be cloudy and breezy tonight with temperatures holding in the low 50s. There will also be areas of drizzle.

2

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be windy and mild with a chance of more drizzle. The wind will gust to 30 mph from the south. If the sun pops out we will exceed 60°, otherwise it will stay 55°-60°.

3

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: It will be windy and mild as the first of two cold fronts approach. More drizzle is possible as well.

4

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Here we go again. Colder air will be moving in. Temperatures will drop from the 50s to the 30s with winds gusting to 30 mph from the north and northwest.  These fronts will come through dry.  The colder air is not as potent as last week and the colder air will stall in the southern Plains.

5

TUESDAY: The first in a series of storm systems tracking across the Plains from the Pacific ocean will be moving by. These systems will interact with the stalled cold air mass, resulting in rounds of rain, ice and snow. The system for Tuesday looks to bring it’s precipitation east of our area. It will get it’s start around here, so we cannot rule out a brief period of rain or freezing rain.

6

THURSDAY: This system looks bigger and has our attention. It will bring a widespread area of rain, ice and snow. The locations that receive these precipitation types is yet to be determined as it depends on many factors, the track being the main one.

7

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

46
Leave a Reply

avatar
26 Comment threads
20 Thread replies
1 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
23 Comment authors
Freeze MiserHeat MiserNickLrcfan1f00dl3 Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Freeze Miser
Guest
Freeze Miser

Keep the faith, snow lovers.

Nick
Guest
Nick

There have been a few systems this season that the models didn’t have much for our area even just a few days out to then end up having the precip form/reach further west than originally forecast, i.e. the last big snow we had in St. Joe, was just suppossed to be drizzle changing to flurries on the FV3 pretty much until a day before or so, Also the rain that we had that changed to a brief slushing of snow on New Years eve, looked on the models to mostly miss us to the south and east until the day… Read more »

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

The major winter storm may not be so major after all?!?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

One run of one model five days out makes you say that? LoL…Really?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

00z GFS looks like we are dry slotted between heavy rain south , light mix here, and moderate snow north.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

good thing its likely wrong this far out.

Justin
Guest
Justin

I’m using the LRC to plan for opening day at the K. According to the long range forecast, the week of the game might see some scattered showers, but will otherwise be dry with above average temps. I think I’ll be getting tickets.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Lol

Becca
Guest
Becca

I am just confused about how a storm this week fits the LRC. Personally, I don’t see much of anything happening this week. In previous cycles there was a storm north but it didn’t really affect us. I think the same will be true this cycle per the LRC. I think around the 11th we should see a big storm in our parts. This would coincide with the big rain event around Christmas.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Do keep in mind the Jet Stream. We had a -40F or colder in spots airmass eroded away by a 65F or warmer in spots air mass, which will be overtaken by another -40F airmass Monday (in parts of MT)

Becca
Guest
Becca

Still half of the models are still only coming in with a sprinkle storm. And the one model that had it yesterday has it developing East. I am leaning towards that. Sprinkles.

Justin
Guest
Justin

39% of the time it works every time.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…go with the opposite of the furry rat, and you will be right 61 percent of time.

Ted in STJ
Guest
Ted in STJ

Need to wait on the NAM It has been most reliable at 84 hours out this winter season. Ultimately the GFS will align with the Nam about 36 hours out. The Euro has really been screw. That having been said I expect a portion of the area to be put under winter storm watch is Monday evening was a potential I emphasize potential for ice, sleet, and even heavy snow depending upon the dynamics of the event.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The 10-day forecast shows KC will get only 21 hours above 32° after 8 PM Monday (02/04) until noon Monday (02/11), and this area north of Manhattan will get only 2 hours above freezing in that same timespan. Our highest temperature during that period will be 34° and KC’s will be 38°.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

so as of right now the GFS, and the CMC models both have a significant winter storm for our area

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Good morning everybody. Next Thursday’s system does not look good per the 12z GFS and the Skew-T charts. The 850mb layer is warm, and at 925mb it is below 32 degrees down to the surface. Freezing rain starts to move in Wednesday night on into Thursday morning. By noon it changes over to sleet followed by a dusting of snow around 6pm. Ice accumulation is 0.58 inches and more in the surrounding area. I hope this does not verify. Yuck! Have a great Super Bowl weekend, and I hope the Patriots lose 🙂

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Too far out…lets see what the models look like on Monday

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Yep. Just didn’t state that since most people on the blog are aware that the models this far out are iffy. That’s why I try to say “if it verifies”. Interesting that the low P shifted further north for Tuesday’s system so we’re out of the main action.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary seem to like our chances though…I’m hoping for good snow storm…BRING IT!!!

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Rockdoc: How far to the SE do you see the freezing line setting up at this point. Past runs have showed freezing rain all the way down along the I-44 corridor. Do you think Columbia, MO could be in in some significant freezing rain? I have late week travel plans Thursday & Friday so watching this very closely. Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc
Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

You’ll need to monitor this since I’m sure it will change. Use the above link but make sure you change the model run located below Forecast Hour – run on left side.

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

hey heat mizer i bet you cannot wait g to get ice so all the [power goes out and thousands suffer thts what you snow freaks like

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

NO way, nothing good about ice. But snow? OH YEAH, BRING IT ON!!!!

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Do you come on here just to go after heat miser? That sounds really boring if you ask me. You should try talking weather. You might become fascinated like the rest of us. Well, most of us……

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Fv3 gfs not on board!

Terry
Guest
Terry

FV3 GFS That model will flip flop back-and-forth so many times I’ve seen it change already

Terry
Guest
Terry

The FV3 GFS 12z not Quite all the way out yet.

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image The CMC Canadian model 12z

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image The GFS 12z looks good for snow

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Cmc also showing ice and snow.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Gfs 12z shows ice and snow and rain in the area Thursday could be a mess. Someone else will have to post links I’m not good at doing that lol

Terry
Guest
Terry

There you go lrcfan1

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Since Phil is right 39 percent of the time, always go with the opposite of what he says…better odds that is right. LOL

Roger
Guest
Roger

I really hope and pray that all of this active weather coming up doesn’t bypass southcentral Kansas. We are still waiting on our first major winter storm! Only about an inch or so of snow here since December 1st!

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

The whole groundhog thing just gives those people in PA a chance to hang out, party, get drunk in an otherwise dreary, cold winter. That’s all it is

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

So Wednesday map is not shown. Is it a nothing day ?

Andrew H
Guest
Andrew H

I didn’t mean to sound smart-alec by that. Just wondered if Wed. morning will have any issues, road wise.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

But the hog does not declare winter over, just an early arrival of spring…

matt
Guest
matt

Early Severe Weather season.

Jeffg
Guest
Jeffg

It looks like the models are all backing off a more are wide spread solution for our area. Quite a change from yesterday, but as we usually realize every time the models aren’t very good this far out. We will just have to be patient.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

The blog says the opposite…looking like a it’s bigger.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Don’t be surprised if it poofs…

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

First!