Major Winter Storm Next Week: The Wild Weather Pattern Continues

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Good morning,

A major winter storm is likely next week.  How will it impact Kansas City and surrounding areas? Let’s take a look.

comic weatherThe weather pattern is now in full swing and like an amusement park ride, we have some big ups and downs in the forecast. Let’s begin with this funny comic strip that someone shared with me yesterday!  The United States went into full blown winter last week as the highly and over used term “Polar Vortex” dropped into the Great Lakes states. Beginning yesterday, I was hearing that the “Polar Vortex” spread across the nation.  The Arctic air mass did dive south and spread across affecting many areas, and the Polar Vortex did not. It dropped over the Great Lakes and now is exiting across eastern Canada.  It left yesterday, and in its wake was this brutally cold air mass.  I love this comic, but it needed a little snow on it to really make it stand out.

In Kansas City, it has been a rather wild month of weather, and it ended up coming in just a little colder than average.  There was one day that reached into the lower 60s, and we may do it again on Sunday, depending on the cloud cover.

Let’s take a look at the January Stats for Kansas City:

10

How much snow did you receive during the month, and how much have you had this season? If you have kept track, please let us know. I may show a few totals on 41Action News tonight.  There was 9.3″ of snow at KCI Airport, and I know there was nearly a foot of snow from that 11th-12th storm  on the south side.

The wild weather changes will continue

  • During the next three days there will be a big warm-up over most of the eastern half of the United States
  • Then, by Monday, a strong cold front will be organizing and it will be on KC’s doorstep by Monday
  • A series of storm systems will begin affecting the United States. Where will the biggest impacts be located?  Let’s look at one solution of the developing pattern.

14

A cold front will be oozing into the area on Monday, and then it is likely going to stall by Tuesday in response to an approaching storm.

11

We have seen a set up similar to this one developing next week. If you go back to the blog around November 1, 2018, I did a video blog that had a discussion rather similar to the weather story that is beginning again now, in this part of the LRC.   There were three storm systems that cycled through in cycle 1, and then again during cycle 2 in the second half of December.  This time, in cycle 3, there will likely be more cold air available than in the fall version, and certainly more than in December when there was the one really mild stretch we had this winter season.  Take a look:

1

2

These two maps above show the FV3-GFS model with snow, sleet, rain, thunderstorms, and freezing rain in the plains. In November, it came close to coming together, but not quite. In December, it came close to coming together, and then it was too warm. What will this do in cycle three? I favor a major winter storm near Kansas City, so let’s see how this all plays out.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly Sunny with increasing clouds late. A light south breeze will help us warm into the lower or middle 40s.
  • Saturday-Sunday:  Cloudy with temperatures warming into the 50s. If there is any sunshine Sunday, the 60° or warmer is possible. The cloud cover will be rather thick.
  • Next week:  A series of storms will move across the United States. The first one will bring a cold front through, and then the stage is set for the Wednesday-Friday storm to produce a major winter storm.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to leave us your totals, and ask us any questions you may have.  Have a great day.

Gary

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BeccaCraigMacLrcfan1AlexPickmanMr. Pete Recent comment authors
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Becca
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Becca

The winter storm for this Thursday doesn’t look like it is going to happen. However, the GFS is picking up on a storm around the 11th and 12th which fits the LRC much better (big rain event around Christmas).

CraigMac
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CraigMac

I miss reading Bill in Lawrence posts. If someone knows him, please ask him to come back.

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

I’m surprised the dense fog advisory hasn’t been extended into Northwest Missouri. Visibility around and east of Saint Joe is around 100 yards or less In several areas and in general it’s under a quarter mile

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

The ground hog did not see his shadow. Spring is coming early!!!!

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Hahaha darn rodent

f00dl3
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f00dl3

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FV3 has all the snow to our south now.

Not to say models have not done this then abruptly put it back on us in the short term to the event this year. No, that’s never happened!

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

I honestly think we are going to get a decent rain out of this and maybe a light wintry mix on the backside of this system.

jcling64056
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jcling64056

now we wait for the Fv3-GFS

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056
jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

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NAM is already colder than the GFS……..should be interesting to track this winter storm

jcling64056
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jcling64056

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I think the GFS is too warm

Rodney
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Rodney

Does the LRC cycling pattern favor active weather the week on Feb 11th – 15th. Just saw on the weather Channel extended forecast a chance of snow showers for these five straight days for Columbia, MO. Wondering how exciting it’s going to get around here over the next two weeks for the winter snow & ice enthusiasts.

Rodney ( Ashland, MO)

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

feb 12-13 = nov 8, dec 26-27

Rodney
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Rodney

Thanks

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

Stewartsville, MO…

November….8 inches (November Blizzard)
December….10 inches
January………13.1 inches (snows of 8, 5, and 0.1 inches)

Season total this far of 31.1 inches…been a fun winter so far…looking forward for more

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

And still more eye candy:
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jcling64056
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jcling64056

could be quite the storm

Rodney
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Rodney

I picked up 16.7” of snow during January in Ashland, MO. 15.7” of that total fell during the winter storm on 1-11 & 1-12.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

11 degrees never felt so warm!!!! Isn’t that sad?!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Both the EURO (12z) and GFS(18z) show a quick little storm coming through on Tuesday the 5th. The EURO has been showing this for the past week, while the GFS has waffled. The GFS is now starting to track the EURO. Looks like it may be a mixed precip event with ice further north per the GFS, and in the metro per the EURO. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/significant-weather/20190206-0000z.html For Thursday’s storm, both the EURO (12z) and GFS (18z) model runs show mostly rain in our area starting early Thursday morning. The EURO storm finishes up much more quickly while the GFS shows the… Read more »

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

nam has been more accurate this seasin

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Tuesday’s storm is still too far out to track with the NAM, so we should start to see it late tomorrow or Sunday.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

What time Tuesday ? Will it be cold enough to affect roads and rush hour Wed morn ?

Someweatherdude
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Someweatherdude

Just yesterday the GFS had the storm on Thursday staying in Texas with ice and sleet. They’re not worth much this far out.

Morgan
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Morgan

Nice rainstorm on the GFS.

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

It sure is!

Andrew H
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Andrew H

When ?

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Gary, I think temperatures are out of control. ” A light south breeze will help us warm into the lower or middle 40s.” – yeah it’s 54 Downtown, 51 Olathe right now. lol.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

49 in Parkville a bit ago

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

Does anyone know if Gary has made a graph or excel sheet showing storm dates that hit in each cycle? I’d like to see something like that.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Some nice eye candy.
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Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I’m dreaming of a white February.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

I want to go back to Florida. Enough is enough already!

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

Why is the same model GFS -FV3 different on pivotal weather vs tropical tidbits? TT shows more snow than PW on the 12z run.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Did u look at ice potential vs snow. It’s probably ice

Jeffg
Guest

FYI, back last Saturday the GFS showed a big 8 inch snowstorm for Tuesday the 5th and now it shows nothing. i don’t have faith in these models so far out. With Gary saying there is going to be a major winter storm I have faith in. Both the models and Gary could be right, but I don’t think the GFS has been very accurate this year.

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

that doesn’t mean a thing

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

NAM it … has been most accurate this season, srew the gfs euro until ruc time

Troy
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Troy

TT shows only 10:1 snow ratios but you can see the kuchera ratio on PW. Its supposed to be cold so the kuchera ratio is likely higher.

Morgan
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Morgan

EURO not biting.

jcling64056
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jcling64056
Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

given the recent success of the Euro and The NAM I would wait for those to jump on board before getting excited just my two cents

Kaden
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Kaden

how do you all know it won’t be a poof?😏

Johnny
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Johnny

How do you know it will

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

just puttin it out there and known, i dont want to go to school till june

jcling64056
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jcling64056

new FV3-GFS blasts KC with a major winter storm

Kaden
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Kaden

what about totals? all i hear is “new FV3-GFS blasts KC with a major winter storm”

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Models cant accurately predict totals this far out….they do show a lot though

KS Jones
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KS Jones

It warmed up 9° in the past hour, and it is already nearly 40°. Hope the sky remains clear for the next 3 days.
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Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Bring it!!!! Gary has been expecting a couple good snow storm chances coming up in the next month or two….this could be #1!!!!

Terry
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Terry

Guys we all know there’s gonna be completely different models runs and Solutions model runs to model runs. So dont even look at the models until like around Tuesday!

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Uncharacteristic of me, but I declare poof for this. There is simply nothing to support it in early November or in mid-December.

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

i concur

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Also the 12z FV3 has yet another Northland snow hole…lol

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Latest gfs keeps it rain and turns into a wintry mix before pushing south of kc.

Jason
Guest
Jason

I’m calling for a POOF. I’m leaving town Thursday morning and my sister in law is staying at our house with the dogs. I love snow, but I don’t need to deal with this.

Kaden
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Kaden

finally somebody who is calling for a poof

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
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RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Snow has fallen from the sky every single time it has been forecast this season. 25+ days. In addition, normal snowfall at KCI is 18 inches and we are almost there with over 6 weeks more of winter to go – at least.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Snow can fall in the form of an inch or two. Not 8″. If I was going to be home, I would be cool with 8″ POOF, POOF, POOF

thetophat
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thetophat

Big papa poof get ready! Gotta get El Nino to do its thing and warm us to rain……………

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

thetophat conveniently forgets that 2009-2010 was an El Niño winter.

Just because it’s there doesn’t mean we get rain. :p

David Pollard
Guest
David Pollard

22.8″ Blue Springs

f00dl3
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f00dl3

What happened to the major Arctic blast next Wednesday? I was almost worried I’d have to reschedule my rural long run again – now the 06z GFS shows it only dropping to the 20s? Yesterday it had us to near 0 again. I mean it would make sense if we are going to be on the borderline of rain/snow with this next storm the Arctic blast won’t come in as hard as the one we just had – but man that’s a model flip-flop if I’ve seen one. What does the LRC say about the Arctic blast Gary – will… Read more »

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

If the models are to be believed (yes, yes, I know), February is either going to be a huge jackpot for KC or a very frustrating month. It looks like we’re going to be right on the edge of rain/ice/snow lines. That’s certainly not unusual for KC. But we could be just a few miles away from huge snows several times this month. Or we could be right in the heart of things.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

NO ICE

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

Up in eastern Iowa I’m up to 36.9″ for the season, which is the 5th highest up to this date. 21.2″ of that came in January. Couple that with 23 consecutive days below freezing (9 days below 0), It’s a winter wonderland out here. The next few days we are supposed to thaw out, but then freeze right back up. I don’t think all the snow will melt, so it will likely be here all through February and into March. We also dropped to -31 Thursday morning, and about 20 miles away from here they dropped to -38. I want… Read more »

shoedog (Leawood)
Guest
shoedog (Leawood)

where in Iowa? I grew up in small town outside Cedar Falls/Waterloo?

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

Here’s my (more than a trace) snowfalls this season in south OP:

11.8-11.9.18 – 2 inches
11.12.18 – 3 inches
11.25.18 – 7 inches
1.11-1.12.19 – 12 inches
1.23.19 – 0.5 inches

There were a few others that weren’t deep enough to measure.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

impressive

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

This one looks to have a sharp depth gradient though for sure for northland to southern metro, snowflakePV, and Rick, lets hope this doesn’t prove true

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

This winter has flown by with exciting storms to watch! Think about it, feels like yesterday we were tracking a major blizzard that dumped 8 inches in the metro, and it wasnt even december yet! February will fly like crazy, lets get these last ones in for a good wrap up this year!

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

What did the euro do last night?

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

South Overland Park 143rd Switzer/Quivira 25-28 inches (depends on which measurements were used).

Doug
Guest
Doug

I live in the same area and 25″ is what I have come up with as well.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

13.5 inches in January and season total of 31.5 inches 2 miles south of St Joseph

TED in StJoe
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TED in StJoe

Kurt, I am at 36 hwy and 22nd St and would have to concur with your January and seasonal totals. It is unfortunate that we do not have anyone taking official measurements . . . can the 139th air wing fire station at Rosecrans be educated in how to take measurements and have ‘human observations’ or ….. I wish NWS would contract with the Missouri Conservation Department at MWSU and let that become the official recording station for the city. We would have more accurate temperatures of the weather in the city of St. Joseph. Their offices are on MWSU… Read more »

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

POOF for next storm

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

You’re usually the optimistic one

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

yep, but at least im being honest, think about it, every ‘major’ storm we’ve had has been a poof.

Justin
Guest
Justin

I don’t consider 10 inches to be a poof. Or 6 inches. Both I’ve measures at my house this year from MAJOR WINTER STORMS

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

You call a full on blizzard a poof? Lol

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…I knew you were a troll. That’s just not true…we’ve had a couple of whoppers this season, esp in parts of the KC area.

matt
Guest
matt

Yes if Groundhog doesn’t see Shadow but Severe Weather.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

A rodent can’t forecast the weather.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Phil begs to differ with ya

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Gary,
I recorded 13″ of snow in January up here in Maryville. With a season total of 27″ so far. I bet we get close to 35″ total for the season. That’s my guess. Have a great weekend!
Michael

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I said this much about the storm next week in yesterday’s blog. I’m pretty confident there will be a winter storm near KC, but once again, winter in KC is a matter of miles and the gradient will be extremely sharp, as always.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Parkville total: just under 17″ for the season.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Does this wet pattern mean it’s going to be cooler than usual in the spring and summer?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

If it keeps up we may be looking at a 1992-93 analog year. Again each has to be unique but there are similarities. The precip this winter is very similar to that one plus the rivers have been consistently at or above normal all year mainly due to upstream heavy precip. A 1993 style flood event would be beyond extreme but is possible at least in some parts of the plains. THANKFULLY cities like Riverside MO learned and built a far better protection system for the next “500-year” event.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

I hope so! 4 hot summers in a row gets tiring.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

This season’s lrc has been a much more active pattern than the previous few in kc!

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

Exciting for snow lovers!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Getting into the tooooo much precip range now. For those of us who have to commute daily this is disastrous. Business always suffers when these 2009-10-11 style winters hit………….something lost on all the kids who just want a snow day or two not realizing, apparently, they will be in school until June at this rate.

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

Thanks for the write-up, Gary.

Justin
Guest
Justin

First