Good morning bloggers,
We have been experiencing a record breaking Arctic outbreak across the United States. Incredibly, the Arctic air will retreat north back into Canada where it will be monitored closely, as it will be poised to blast south again. The jet stream is caused by a fictional wind called “the thermal wind”. The thermal wind really describes the change in wind with height, rather than actually being a wind itself. This change of wind with height is actually directly related to temperature differences, and thus it is not a coincident that the jet stream often reaches its peak global strength over the Northern Hemisphere during the winter, and more specifically right around this time of the year.
The Arctic air, currently in place, will retreat north into Canada during the next few days. At the same time, some heat is being generated by this weather pattern over Cancun. The temperature contrast will be close to 140° as you can see above. This is creating the strong jet stream that just carved out the Polar Vortex as it dropped south over the Great Lakes, and now is moving out, retreating northeast and weakening. I was expecting possible blocking in the pattern by the first week of February, and we are still waiting.
Was anyone surprised by yesterday’s snowfall? I showed the model I thought had the best chance of verifying in yesterdays blog. This is what I try to provide for those of you who read this blog. I could easily have shown the other models that had no snow. I thought that the one I showed had the best chance of verifying, and boy did it ever verify. There were even reports of 2″ near Liberty, MO, so a dusting to 2″ fell in that band. KCI Airport just went over 17″ for the season. So what now? Let’s take a look.
The Developing Weather Pattern:
If you look at the map above again, you can also see that it likely will be rising to near 60 degrees Sunday, but this will depend on the cloud cover. If it completely overcast, which is likely, then temperatures may be limited to the 50s. That will still be impressive after it was 6 below zero just yesterday in KC.
Cloud cover will become quite extensive over the United States by this weekend. How many cloud free areas can you see on this forecast map valid Sunday morning? Warmer air will be drawn northward with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico being tapped. And then, by Monday, this weather pattern develops at the surface:
As the jet stream reaches its peak strength, it is energizing this weather pattern and a rollercoaster ride of temperatures and weather is developing. In Chicago it was -23° yesterday, and it is again nearly -20° this morning. On Monday, the temperature is likely to rise into the 50s. In KC, we were -6° yesterday, and it is likely going to rise to near 60 degrees on Sunday. And, then, another Arctic blast is organizing for next week as you can see above. By one week from today the next Arctic Blast is forecast like this GFS model below:
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Becoming mostly sunny. East to southeast winds at 10-25 mph. This will create wind chills from -15° to +5° today. High: 32°
- Tonight: Clear and not as cold. Low: 20°
- Friday: Mostly sunny with some increasing clouds late. Only a light south breeze of around 5 mph is expected. High: 43°
- Saturday: Cloudy, much warmer, and a chance of few sprinkles or light showers. The roads will become wet even without rain. High: 53°
- Sunday: Mostly cloudy. South winds 10-25 mph. High: 62°
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. The weather pattern is cycling regularly and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (we know as the LRC as it was named by you, the bloggers) was published in 2018. This years cycling pattern is right on schedule, so now what? Let’s enjoy this weather ride as spring is one cycle away. Have a great day.