The Jet Stream Is Reaching Peak Strength: It’s Creating A Roller Coaster Ride Of Temperatures & Storms

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Good morning bloggers,

We have been experiencing a record breaking Arctic outbreak across the United States.  Incredibly, the Arctic air will retreat north back into Canada where it will be monitored closely, as it will be poised to blast south again.  The jet stream is caused by a fictional wind called “the thermal wind”.  The thermal wind really describes the change in wind with height, rather than actually being a wind itself.   This change of wind with height is actually directly related to temperature differences, and thus it is not a coincident that the jet stream often reaches its peak global strength over the Northern Hemisphere during the winter, and more specifically right around this time of the year.

Screen Shot 2019-01-30 at 9.39.01 PM

The Arctic air, currently in place, will retreat north into Canada during the next few days. At the same time, some heat is being generated by this weather pattern over Cancun.  The temperature contrast will be close to 140° as you can see above. This is creating the strong jet stream that just carved out the Polar Vortex as it dropped south over the Great Lakes, and now is moving out, retreating northeast and weakening.  I was expecting possible blocking in the pattern by the first week of February, and we are still waiting.

Was anyone surprised by yesterday’s snowfall?  I showed the model I thought had the best chance of verifying in yesterdays blog.  This is what I try to provide for those of you who read this blog. I could easily have shown the other models that had no snow.  I thought that the one I showed had the best chance of verifying, and boy did it ever verify. There were even reports of 2″ near Liberty, MO, so a dusting to 2″ fell in that band. KCI Airport just went over 17″ for the season. So what now?  Let’s take a look.

The Developing Weather Pattern:

If you look at the map above again, you can also see that it likely will be rising to near 60 degrees Sunday, but this will depend on the cloud cover.  If it completely overcast, which is likely, then temperatures may be limited to the 50s.  That will still be impressive after it was 6 below zero just yesterday in KC.

Screen Shot 2019-01-30 at 10.00.25 PM

Cloud cover will become quite extensive over the United States by this weekend.  How many cloud free areas can you see on this forecast map valid Sunday morning?  Warmer air will be drawn northward with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico being tapped. And then, by Monday, this weather pattern develops at the surface:

5

As the jet stream reaches its peak strength, it is energizing this weather pattern and a rollercoaster ride of temperatures and weather is developing.  In Chicago it was -23° yesterday, and it is again nearly -20° this morning. On Monday, the temperature is likely to rise into the 50s.  In KC, we were -6° yesterday, and it is likely going to rise to near 60 degrees on Sunday.  And, then, another Arctic blast is organizing for next week as you can see above.  By one week from today the next Arctic Blast is forecast like this GFS model below:

gfs_T2m_us_30

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Becoming mostly sunny. East to southeast winds at 10-25 mph.  This will create wind chills from -15° to +5° today. High: 32°
  • Tonight:  Clear and not as cold. Low:  20°
  • Friday:  Mostly sunny with some increasing clouds late.  Only a light south breeze of around 5 mph is expected. High:  43°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy, much warmer, and a chance of few sprinkles or light showers. The roads will become wet even without rain.  High:  53°
  • Sunday:  Mostly cloudy.  South winds 10-25 mph.  High:  62°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  The weather pattern is cycling regularly and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (we know as the LRC as it was named by you, the bloggers) was published in 2018.  This years cycling pattern is right on schedule, so now what? Let’s enjoy this weather ride as spring is one cycle away. Have a great day.

Gary

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KadenKS JonesJackFrostMr. Petejcling64056 Recent comment authors
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JackFrost
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JackFrost

No I’m last 😂

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Last?

jcling64056
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jcling64056

comment image

new FV3-GFS

Terry
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Terry

comment image Look what the GFS 00z is showing now a snowstorm 6 / 7th of February

jcling64056
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jcling64056

new GFS jumps aboard the trend

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019020100&fh=141

new GFS coming out now, but look at the new ICON model that just came out……..tons of precipitation with temps in the upper teens/low twenties.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=scus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019020100&fh=141

anxiously awaiting the new GFS/ FV3-GFS

Jack in Atchison
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Jack in Atchison

Latest FV3 GFS has a major winter storm on Thursday followed by 7 days+ of cold cold weather.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

BRING IT!!!!

jcling64056
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jcling64056

wow, this could be quite the winter storm if it ends up looking something like this

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfct&rh=2019013118&fh=168&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

temps in the teens and single digits

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=qpf_024h&rh=2019013118&fh=174&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

with possibly .60″ or more of precip

Andrew H
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Andrew H

More snow is ok but not liking those temps with it.
Really hope Feb will be more like Dec. was in terms of temps.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

NWS is predicting a much below normal temps February for our part of the country

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Thought we were supposed to see it on the 4th?

jcling64056
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jcling64056

feb 4-7th has been the target on the models for about a week now. starting to come into focus now I think

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

It’s a frz rain set up for Missouri. Over 1/2 in of ice in mid mo. Hope it doesn’t verify!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

yep, looks like a major winter storm next week

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

looks like the start of a trend if you look at the previous model run

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Tech team
There seems to be 2 Andrews on here now.
So I am trying to add my last initial to distinguish between us.
Is it possible to do this ?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

When u hit join the discussion u should have a spot where u can change your name.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

I did and it went into moderation so I wrote the above comment to tech team.
Looks like they green-lighted the change for me.
lol, didn’t think they would leave my message to them on here.
That’s what I call transparency ! 😆😉

Jessica
Guest
Jessica

Ya know, as grown adults, whether or not Kaden is actually 13, we should all be operating under that assumption. Stop bullying him. Act like adults. Don’t cry foul when one person bullies or trolls the blog then turn around and treat a child that way. I’d rather read Julie’s BS than adults treating a child that way. We are better than that.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

As one of the youngest people on here – I can attest that Kaden reminds me a great deal of how I used to be not all that long ago. He’s almost certainly in the 11-15 age range. I tried so hard to get better, but just couldn’t. Nothing will fix it except time. Just be kind to him and let him be.

Just assuming Kaden’s a him – I guess Kaden could also be a girl’s name, so pardon my mistake if that’s the case.

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

im not a girl

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

wow, that sounds incredibly self righteous and lecturing. Try a better tone next time, you might find you get better results.

Jessica
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Jessica

That sounded incredibly defensive. Feeling guilty? Otherwise I’m not sure why you care about my tone if doesn’t pertain to you.

I’m sure if I said “pretty please be nice to each other,” I would have been railroaded for being a “snowflake.”

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Because your tone is inappropriate. You can make the point without the lecturing and annoyingly self righteous tone….its a real turn off, even if the point is valid.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Predators prey on the naive.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Today is our last day in the negatives….woohoo!

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

Gary, I was going to suggest that perhaps there is a permanent “screenshot” of the list of snowfall totals with dates when we first come to the blog page. That way we can refer back to when the storms/snow came through. It can be updated for future events. Thanks for considering this.

Andrew H
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Andrew H

Good idea ! But that probably won’t happen.
Because it would somewhat indicate the cycle length ?

Andrew
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Andrew

Good idea ! But that probably won’t happen.
Because it would somewhat indicate the cycle length ?

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Everyone knows it by now.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

It would be beneficial. I cannot find it from the last time it was posted. Since Gary has already posted the list it wouldn’t matter in terms of the LRC, just to keep track of dates and amounts of snow.

Andrew
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Andrew

I realize that. But Gary might not want to “put it out there” to make it more obvious.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

I just checked the 12z models for both the EURO and GFS. As I had mentioned in previous posting that the EURO has been pretty consistent in showing a rain/ice event on Tuesday the 5th. It starts out as freezing rain early in the day and then eventually changes over to rain. The GFS which has bounced around shows rain moving in, but later on. The GFS system lags by about 6 hours compared to the EURO. It seems like the GFS is starting to track with the EURO though. Previous runs had rain and the system further south, and… Read more »

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

FEELS like we are our of the deep freeze right now to me…its above freezing in Lawrence and the suns out.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

I dont know where you live, but here in Lawrence this winter has been just awesome in terms of snow…so much better than that last four years.

Rockdoc
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Rockdoc

I live just north of Overland Park in Prairie Village. I’m not that far from Mr. Pete. He lives a wee bit north and east of me I believe. For me, snow’s pretty to look at as long as it is melted within a few days around town. I grew up in Michigan and I can remember snow being on the ground from December through March and sometimes early April. Ugh! I lived in Colorado for years and preferred it there since the snow would typically be gone within one week if it was a big dumper. I could also… Read more »

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Gary is not doing much long term predicting in his blog, would like to know every few days exactly what to expect in the next 15 days. Quite frankly, just another boring winter. Maybe only a month and half left of winter and nothing exciting has happened or is showing to happen. Blizzards with 1-5″ of snow don’t make for a blockbuster winter out here in central Kansas. Looking for that 24-36 hour snow event that used to occur 2-3 times a year, plus we would get other clippers systems that would bring us 1-3″. These robust storms just don’t… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Dates to watch:
February 13
February 18
March 1-2 (the big one)
March 8-9 (may end up as rain)
March 12

MMike
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MMike

snowflakeparkville,

I would agree with that based of cycle two, but, there has been discussion about a stormy week next week because of cycle one.?????

Current data has every storm missing KC next week, (2) to the northern plains and one later next week to the south of KC. Matter of fact, the FV3 has a huge snow storm to our south around a week out. We’ll need to see how these storms trend as the one to the south might get up into our area. The Tuesday/Wednesday storm is there but doesn’t quite come together for KC.

MMike
Guest
MMike

Urbanity, If you live west of Manhattan, “it’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be dry, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your winter” The cold and the dry part doesn’t fit your comment. Salina, to Concordia, to Wichita, to Goodland, to Dodge City all have been above average on temps as a whole for Dec/Jan and precip. has been above average for all locations each month since Oct. except for a few locations with 1 month that might have fell below average on total moisture. when you average less then a half inch for the winter months… Read more »

Troy
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Troy

You might have gotten lower totals than some but I think a lot of times people remember the past as being more snowy that it actually was. Probably because its easier to remember big snow storms than boring weather. Concordia has had the most snow on record from Oct -January. Now the 27 inches is still along ways from the record of 59 inches for the whole winter and there have been several 40″+ snowfall winters but up until this point its never been any snowier. Its also the wettest Oct-January on record just edging out 1992-93.

Mark
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Mark

Growing up in the 70’s, there was definitely more snow.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Technically correct. Average snowfall for the 1970-1985 period is about 21 inches while average for the 2003-2018 period is about 17.5 inches. However, the more recent period is skewed by 11-12 15-16 16-17 17-18, and the 70-85 period had no winters under 10″ (as well as the extreme late-70s winters), so a better number to expect during the present time is probably around 19-20″.

Until climate change really gets going and the average drops further, the difference is insignificant. A major snowstorm is no more or less likely now than it was 40 years ago.

SnowGoPewPew
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SnowGoPewPew

We had about 2″ of fluffy snow yesterday off 291 and N Stark Ave. Created some slick conditions as it was icing over too.

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

For the immediate area this cold weather was not out of the ordinary. St. Joseph had an official low of -9°. Nowhere close to a record low, the snow blowing by yesterday leaving a dusting at -4° was something extraordinary, however, as has already been stated most of it had evaporated by morning. The temperature remained constant around 1° to up to 3° all night long. The key will be is what happens in four weeks on March 1/2 as the LRC comes around again. The intervening four weeks should be fairly mundane as they have been three times previously.… Read more »

Jeffg
Guest

Great assessment, I agree with what you said. If we are following the LRC I would expect some activity between the 10th and 19th of February, but the rest of the month looks pretty quiet. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Then March 1st our big storm pattern comes around for the third time. This is the first year I have really followed the LRC closely enough to predict out what might happen. I am definitely an amateur, but continuing to learn. Thanks for all the insight that everyone provides.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

I’ve had my eye on April 28 for months now. It’s what brought us snow on October 14. Could it happen?

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

I don’t know about you all but man Spring cant get here fast enough! I love winter, and love a nice good snow storm but I’m getting to that point where I cant wait for longer days, warmer weather, and greenery everywhere! I’m still hoping for another decent snow event before Spring officially takes over, but if we don’t get one I’d be ok with that. This winter has been sooooo much more eventful than the past 4 or so.

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

like the chiefs?

Eric (North Overland Park, KS)
Guest
Eric (North Overland Park, KS)

Kaden – yes I do. I’m a big fan of the Chiefs. Why whats up?

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

LOL @ all of Kaden’s posts being massively down-voted.

thetophat
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thetophat

Yep and I just put him/her to -44. This blog is not for the kiddos……………

Bill
Guest
Bill

I will say that this weather pattern is fantastic for drought-busting storms, minus the four-corners.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Are the snow chances for the next 10 days still on the table?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

OH sure..models are horrible this far out as we all know..there are definitely chances

Kaden
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Kaden

uh…. no

Johnny
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Johnny

If there’s anybody’s input I believe on this board it’s yours

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Here are my January totals for Maryville, MO. I recorded .27″ of rain over two events. The most being .23″ on January 1st. It snowed 13″ total over 4 events. The biggest being on January 12th with 8″. The coldest day was -18 on January 30th. I did not count the freezing drizzle and flurries that we got which would been another three days. So to say the least, it’s been a very active month! Stay warm Bloggers! Can’t wait to see what February brings,
Michael

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Snowstorm late next week?

Three7s
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Three7s

The storm coming in next week just refuses to get its act together on top of the area per the models. It starts rolling just barely east of the metro and it’s been very consistent each run. However, we all know that the models have not done well in predicting this type of setup in this LRC. It wouldn’t shock me one bit if, closer to the event, it starts showing a solution that has the system organizing on top of us.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

POOF POOF POOF

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

oh no….Big Papa Poof is back….

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

i got about 2 inches in liberty, gary

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think as amazing as the Arctic blast is all the 1/2″ of snow in Lenexa that fell yesterday melted – with temperatures of 5 degrees!

MMike
Guest
MMike

f00dl3,

It didn’t melt, it evaporated. SE wind kicked up overnight and I had less snow this morning then I had last night. I measured 2.1 inches on my deck west of Liberty at about 8pm last night,(major fluff factor to the snow) it was down to under and inch this morning and it will all be gone by noon today. It snowed from 1:30 to about 9:30 last night. We stayed under a persistent band late yesterday afternoon into the evening up across the Northland.

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

Up here in Iowa we haven’t been above freezing for nearly three weeks, yet our snow depth keeps going down. I think the ultra dry air is causing a lot of it to sublimate.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Looks like the AO is dropping father in Negative as forecasted…so far… now hopefully we can get another big snowstorm.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

I have been fascinated by the snowfall projections for the Sierra California Mountains. If this were to hold true, there are some areas when you hover over that area that shows 158″. That is unbelievable. Can’t imagine that much snow over 3-5 days. Amazing!

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019013106&fh=180&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_sw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs_fv3

Bill
Guest
Bill

Amazing for the water supply for next year. Fingers crossed that it will help keep any sign of drought far, far away.

Ashley
Guest
Ashley

First