Strong Cold Blast Arrives This Morning

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Good morning bloggers,

Screen Shot 2019-01-28 at 6.07.27 AM

These are the Watches-Warnings-Advisories that have been issued by the National Weather Service.  There are Winter Storm Warnings for parts of the deep south and the upper Midwest.  Kansas City has a Wind Chill Watch that has ben issued.  There are various other advisories as well as this Arctic Blast organizes and heads south.  Let’s have a weather discussion this morning as this begins to come together.

The cycling pattern as described by the LRC is right on schedule with this cold blast this morning.  We are moving into the part of the cycling pattern that produced the second snowiest November on record in KC, and one of the coldest Novembers on record as well.  We will be getting the late January and February version of the LRC in this third cycle, and the question will be: How cold and snowy will it be in this cycle?  In the the second cycle, this part of the pattern didn’t have the cold air to work with, but that is not the case this time.

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The weather pattern on Tuesday night into Wednesday night will feature a record breaking Arctic blast that will impact areas northeast of KC from North Dakota southeast to Indianapolis a bit stronger than what we will experience farther southwest. Just look at this forecast wind chill map above.  Wow!  -60° wind chill factor in Minneapolis?  That is just dangerous Arctic cold.  Farther southwest we will get an Arctic blast too, and it will be interesting to see how far southwest this will penetrate.

Three Storm Systems Likely In The Next 18 Days or so:

Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 8.05.04 PM

The first cycle of this years LRC produced these three systems, in what Jeff Penner and I called “the trough that doesn’t move”. That was a phrase we used, but the storms did move. They just got replaced by another storm a day or two later each time.  All three of these systems will cycle through in the next two to three weeks. One of them, likely the first one, will draw in warmer air and track north. The second and third ones have better chances of having higher winter impacts.

What to look for in these next two to three weeks:

  • Today’s cold front will be strong, and it will blast through by mid-late morning. Temperatures will drop into the teens with some sunshine breaking out
  • A second and stronger surge of cold air, an Arctic Blast will arrive Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Kansas City is on the southwestern edge of the brutally cold and dangerous Arctic air mass.  Temperatures will likely drop to near or below zero early Wednesday with wind chills around 20 below. The 60 degree below wind chills are possible farther north
  • The series of storm systems from November are likely going to cycle back through with the first one due in by early next week. This first one will draw in warmer air and likely track north of KC.  This means that there will be a huge warm up Friday into Sunday as this first storm approaches
  • The second and third storm systems have better chances of tracking a bit farther south.  Arctic air will potentially be tapped for these systems and snow is likely in some areas a bit farther south and KC may be a target of one of these storms

Get the winter gear out as this cold blast is arriving soon.  Have a great start to the week and we will look ahead as we move through the week, and on KSHB.com and 41 Action News. Thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog, and have a great day.

Gary

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Numb3rsGuyMattjcling64056KellyinLSRickMcKC (I-29 & 64th) Recent comment authors
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jcling64056
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jcling64056

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GFS back on board for a storm next week

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Looking forward to this …

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Matt
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Matt

JL just said at end of Newscast might have to turn on Fan on Monday 70.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

EDIT: Nevermind, test didn’t work.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

comment image

Andrew
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Andrew

Holy smokes ! Lol ! It worked
Snow Miser I just hit copy on your map then paste 😁
But I am not a map blogger. Will leave that stuff up to those who are

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Gary looks like the troll slipped past security with a new name.

Johnny

Had high hopes the new format was scoping him out
Seemed to work for awhile

w2020meghan
Admin
w2020meghan

Andrew, thank you for letting us know.
Addressing it ASAP on our end. Enjoy your evening!

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Thanks Meghan
Just trying to help keep it clean
It is much better than it was !

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Going outside right now in OP it’s horribly cold and windy I can’t imagine the wind chill being 20 degrees lower then it already is.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

23 degrees is horribly cold to you? LoL..can’t imagine what -10 would be to you.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

23 degrees but 9 degree wind chill that sound horrible to me

KellyinLS
Guest
KellyinLS

I thought the same thing tonight at Aldi, temps don’t seem too crazy but the wind makes it feel so cold. I forgot gloves and it took me about two minutes to load groceries into my car and walk the cart back, and it felt awful on my hands and ears!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019012818&fh=198

latest GFS for next week…..continues to show a storm for our area. looks like we will have 2 to 3 system to track, should be interesting

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

WINNING!!!!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Check this out: On Wednesday morning there’ll be parts of northern Greenland that’ll be warmer than Chicago:
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Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Exactly how did you post the image? I’ve made single gif images and tried to attach with no luck. Also click and save image to paste into comment. Thanks for any directions you can provide😊

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Right-click on an image at whatever website you’re looking at, and select “Copy Image Address” or “Copy Image Location,” depending on which browser you’re using. If you’re using IE just select “Copy.” It will copy the image’s URL. Then just paste the URL into the response box and it automatically shows it.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Olathe Johnson County is still sitting at 26. Seems like today’s high was only supposed to be 15 if I recall. Maybe diurnal heating and mixing has done some magic?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

The high was always supposed to be in the 20s? 22 in Parkville now and dropping relatively fast. It was 26 about an hour ago.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

MONDAY (7 AM-7 PM): The Arctic air will be surging in on north winds at 15-30 mph. Temperatures will drop to around 20° by noon and then stay 15°-20° the rest of the day. Wind chill values will be -10° to 0°. If there is any moisture left on surfaces it will freeze by 10 AM. The wind will help to dry most surfaces out.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Well my kids had a snow day today and a cold weather day Tues and wed up here in Minnesota. Wish I could say the same. We are working 24/7 coverage until further notice.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

What kind of work do you do?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I work for the railroad

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Ah..interesting!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

I’ve been working on the railroad
All the live long day …

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

For what it’s worth, the EURO has been consistently showing a system for early next week that I had pointed out a couple of days ago. The last several runs show an ice event with rain to the south and snow to the north. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019012812/usa/significant-weather/20190205-1800z.html Meanwhile the GFS has been bouncing all over the place. The latest GFS shows rain to the south and that’s it. Given that Gary has indicated next week’s systems line up with the LRC, which I also though, this will need to be monitored – as Gary would say. Please everybody, bring your pets in,… Read more »

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

What about Sunny
Gary has to take her outside living upstairs in condo
Anyone living in apartments that have dogs I feel for those especially in Chicago or Minneapolis

jeffnKs
Guest
jeffnKs

Hello from Wichita! Seems all this cold is going to be north of us. They are not calling for it to be as cold as you. Seems like we are going to miss it. So stay warm up north.

sierravista
Guest
sierravista

Wish we could be that lucky. I don’t mind the snow, but the bitter cold I can do without!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

12z FV3-GFS

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012812&fh=228&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

this would be the second of the tree storms Gary talked about I believe

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

But the “real” GFS doesn’t have that storm. Neither does the Canadian. I think maybe the FV3 might not be ready for prime time.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

I wouldnt pick and choose models. We all know this year EURO NAM is the winning duo. We just want these systems to be “there” this far out if that makes sense. Hundreds more solutions to come, but as long as we have a system coming out of the pacific and organizing, thats step 1. Step 2 begins 3-4 days out MAX. Step 3 is completion of the storm day of as models suggested. Patience on this one, let the LRC reign its power for now.

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

wont the “real” GFS be gone very soon?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

FV3 seems to be good at picking up hints of things far out. People laughed when it showed October 14 snow, but then it happened.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

There are locations near Des Moines that may be -20F Thursday morning and 67F Sunday afternoon. That is a 87 degree temperature change for one location in 4 days. WTF???
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RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
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RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Again, how are you getting pictures to show up in your post???

f00dl3
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f00dl3

just post the url

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

That site is pretty cool since it gives you a URL to the png of the map. But I can’t figure out how to make it zoom in to our area like you did. The “Floater” sector views are set to somewhere else.

UPDATE: never mind – you just can’t get a sector view of the FV3.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Yes, you can get a sector view of the FV3 as well.comment image

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
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RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Not on the NEXLAB site.

Matt
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Matt

Were near 70 here and that’s good.

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

I live in far eastern Iowa, and Wednesday morning we are supposed to have temperatures around -30 degrees F with wind chills at -50 degrees F. The all-time record low temp for my city is -29 degrees F, and I think it has a fair chance of falling based on what the NWS is predicting. This will be historic cold for anyone who is less than 30 years old in these areas.

Chris
Guest
Chris

Where in far east Ia.?

Have family in Quad Cities and in Il.near Burlington Ia.

Numb3rsGuy
Guest
Numb3rsGuy

I live just north of the QC in Clinton, IA. Tell your family to bundle up!

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Models pretty solid on us not dropping below 0 at this point. NAM bottoms out at +3, GFS at +2. NAM shows a chance for a Dusting-2″ snow event Wednesday evening!
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RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

How did you do that??? (the map)

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Don’t hold much credence in models 9 days out

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

??? The map he posted is 60 hours out.

John
Guest
John

January 31st is not 9 days away.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

ah…well, we never expected any snow a couple of days out anyways…I assumed he was talking next week since that is our next couple of snow chances. My bad.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Seems like the trend on the models is to slide the coldest air even further east. NWS has a low of -5 for Wed AM at my location. I will be surprised if it gets below zero.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Santa Fe and Keeler a Power Pole about to come down if your in that area. Crews on the way per Olathe Police Department.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Do you guys think there will be school closings in Kc Wednesday? I hope not

Jason
Guest
Jason

I was just wondering the same thing. If they did, it would be soley becasue of kids standing out waiting for the bus

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Seems pretty likely. Most close if the wind chill is below -10 I think.

TrP
Guest
TrP

I would bet they will be. Kids who have to walk to school or wait at a bus stop are the issue – as well as busses being able to even start.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

It has certainly happened before for this reason.

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

definitely in Missouri. Maybe in Kansas.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Does the Kansas side not close as easily?

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

The Missouri schools get funding based on pupil attendance per day (rather than pupil enrollment), so they close schools anytime they think a lot of students will stay home. Combine that with the lack of snow removal on the Missouri side, and you get much more closings.

Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

I’m a teacher in Kansas, living in Missouri, and I can tell you that the Missouri side gets out more often. And someone said it, Missouri days won’t count if they don’t reach a certain attendance threshold (I’m not sure what it is, to be honest).
In terms of getting out Wednesday due to the cold, anytime there is some sort of a warning (Blizzard, Winter Storm, Wind Chill), they will cancel in Kansas, based on my experiences.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

6 yrs ago today we hit 76 degrees ! An all time record high for any day in January !
I’m dreaming of Spring.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

The winds are howling in Prairie Village. Any loose limbs left up there from that snowstorm will surely be falling down today,

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Wouldn’t be surprised of power outages too.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Picked up 7 in overnight with another 2 to 3 to come today. 3 1/2 ft drifts in driveway with winds picking up and then the bottom drops out. I wouldn’t b surprised if school is cancelled wed due to cold.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

How are the wind advisories not farther south? There’s already wind gusts around 50mph spreading into the city.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Not as cold further south

John
Guest
John

How does the temperature have anything to do with how windy it is outside?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Wind Chill Adversories have to do with both wind speed and temp

John
Guest
John

They did not say wind chill advisory. They said a wind advisory for the strong winds. Now we are under a High Wind Warning for gusts to 60 mph. Still has nothing to do with the temperature.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

They do, but skylar was asking about the wind out there right now and not about the impending arctic air.

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Looks like the NWS just added KC to the wind advisory for today.

Mike Holm
Guest

Gary or community, Cycle 1 was great for CO ski resorts, cycle 2 was great for PNW resorts and Cali rain—CO largely missed. So what will C3 bring?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Do you have the 1 Weather app? If not, this is the app that Gary and team developed where you can enter a city, such as Vail, and then look at long range forecast based on the LRC. For example, I have Salida in there since I go to Buena Vista periodically. It looks pretty good for mountain snows in February looking at the app just now. For Colorado, another decent blog to follow is Weather 5280.

Mike Holm
Guest

Thanks Rockdoc, I do have the app. The question I asked was more philosophical one regarding flow of the storms. Question being are we going to see more like the first cycle or more of the same In C3. My guess is that it is unknown. The app doesn’t work very well for the mountains. There is so much detail that goes into mountain snowfall, like which mountains are favored by a northwest wind like Vail. NW wind would favor Vail but not Beaver Creek which is just on the other side.

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

to damn gold cold heat mizer

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Heat like snow, but not arctic cold

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

Come on suck it up, brother!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I’m gonna have to take a stand and raise the temp into the 50s this weekend brother. No choice, you are forcing my hand.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Pay no attention to that man, he’s an imposter!

Andrew S
Guest
Andrew S

The AO forecast to dip farther into negative territory around next wk or so http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

First, and brrrrrrrr!