Good morning bloggers,
These are the Watches-Warnings-Advisories that have been issued by the National Weather Service. There are Winter Storm Warnings for parts of the deep south and the upper Midwest. Kansas City has a Wind Chill Watch that has ben issued. There are various other advisories as well as this Arctic Blast organizes and heads south. Let’s have a weather discussion this morning as this begins to come together.
The cycling pattern as described by the LRC is right on schedule with this cold blast this morning. We are moving into the part of the cycling pattern that produced the second snowiest November on record in KC, and one of the coldest Novembers on record as well. We will be getting the late January and February version of the LRC in this third cycle, and the question will be: How cold and snowy will it be in this cycle? In the the second cycle, this part of the pattern didn’t have the cold air to work with, but that is not the case this time.
The weather pattern on Tuesday night into Wednesday night will feature a record breaking Arctic blast that will impact areas northeast of KC from North Dakota southeast to Indianapolis a bit stronger than what we will experience farther southwest. Just look at this forecast wind chill map above. Wow! -60° wind chill factor in Minneapolis? That is just dangerous Arctic cold. Farther southwest we will get an Arctic blast too, and it will be interesting to see how far southwest this will penetrate.
Three Storm Systems Likely In The Next 18 Days or so:
The first cycle of this years LRC produced these three systems, in what Jeff Penner and I called “the trough that doesn’t move”. That was a phrase we used, but the storms did move. They just got replaced by another storm a day or two later each time. All three of these systems will cycle through in the next two to three weeks. One of them, likely the first one, will draw in warmer air and track north. The second and third ones have better chances of having higher winter impacts.
What to look for in these next two to three weeks:
- Today’s cold front will be strong, and it will blast through by mid-late morning. Temperatures will drop into the teens with some sunshine breaking out
- A second and stronger surge of cold air, an Arctic Blast will arrive Tuesday and Tuesday night. Kansas City is on the southwestern edge of the brutally cold and dangerous Arctic air mass. Temperatures will likely drop to near or below zero early Wednesday with wind chills around 20 below. The 60 degree below wind chills are possible farther north
- The series of storm systems from November are likely going to cycle back through with the first one due in by early next week. This first one will draw in warmer air and likely track north of KC. This means that there will be a huge warm up Friday into Sunday as this first storm approaches
- The second and third storm systems have better chances of tracking a bit farther south. Arctic air will potentially be tapped for these systems and snow is likely in some areas a bit farther south and KC may be a target of one of these storms
Get the winter gear out as this cold blast is arriving soon. Have a great start to the week and we will look ahead as we move through the week, and on KSHB.com and 41 Action News. Thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog, and have a great day.