Arctic Blast Arrives Monday

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good Saturday bloggers,

We had scattered snow showers this morning in northern Missouri. A few went through KC about 2 AM, lasting about 2 minutes. So, if your car was parked outside, it may have a dusting of snow on it.  The roads are fine. Northern Missouri may have a few locations with up to 1/2″ and slick roads.

8

These snow showers are being caused by numerous disturbances running northwest to southeast along the boundary between the Arctic air and normal cold air. Saturday morning saw temperatures range from 34° in Valentine, NE to -22°/-21° in Wisconsin.

1

TODAY: We will see periods of clouds with highs 30°-35°. The Arctic air and snow will be located along and east of the Mississippi river. We cannot rule out a few rain and snow showers around here this afternoon as these disturbances race by.

2

SUNDAY MORNING: The Arctic air will drift west, so we will see lows 15°-20°. The coldest of the air will stay northeast and east of KC, sneaking back to northern Missouri.

3

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: We get a reprieve from the brutal cold as warmer air surges back east taking our highs to around 40°. This is just brief relief as an Arctic front will be surging south through the northern Plains.

4

SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING: The Arctic front will blast through with scattered rain and snow showers. We do not expect any accumulation or slick roads. The only way we have slick roads is of there is enough water left on the roads by the time temperatures drop below freezing Monday morning. At this time amounts looks to be a trace to .05″. So, we have to keep an eye on this, but does not look like a big deal at this time.

5

MONDAY AFTERNOON: The Arctic air will be pouring in on north winds at 15-25 mph. Temperatures will drop to 10°-15° with wind chill values as low as -10°.

6

A second Arctic front moves in Tuesday and so the coldest days of next week will be Wednesday and Thursday. The lows from Bismarck, ND to Chicago, IL will be ludicrously low at -35° to -25°.  Wind chill values will drop to -60° to -50°! If you have plans to head north next week, keep this in mind. This is crazy for even those northern cities.

There is not much snow with all of this cold for our region. A system on Thursday may bring some accumulating snow from Nebraska to Missouri on the southwest edge of the Arctic air, but the chance is low at this time.

7

The Arctic air retreats big time next weekend.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

49
Leave a Reply

avatar
17 Comment threads
32 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
23 Comment authors
snowflakeparkvilleChrisHeat Miserjcling64056Rockdoc Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

The latest GFS model run shows a storm system in our neighborhood. It’s too far out to know exactly what it will be, but definitely something to watch.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2019012618&fh=222&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

This system has been consistent with the models. What happens will become more clearctowards the end of next week. I still think it aligns with wave in 1st LRC, but I could be wrong. Depending on temps will determine rain or snow.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc
snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Aligns with the warmest and sunniest day of December and with the time around Halloween. No idea where people are getting the idea that this hypothetical storm fits!

jcling64056
Guest
jcling64056

yep, looks like a couple storm systems to track next week. Could get very interesting around here!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

BRING IT!!!! 😉

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

We didn’t melt very much up here today, all the snow and ice is like a giant ice cube, but it did feel much better outside. Still have 3-6 inches of snow with some huge drifts up here, like 2-3 foot drifts in spots

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Another fine day today. 45° here and 47° in Manhattan. Forecast for tomorrow looks good as well.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Thx for rubbing it in! Lol

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

They are saying we may break records with this cold snap. 1996, 82, and I think 1898 are in jeopardy of going down. On wed -18 might b our high! R u frickin kidding me! Wind-chill as cold as -60 possible. Not quite sure how we work in that or if our trucks or machines will even run.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

We lost pretty much all our snow cover in Lenexa. And it’s supposed to get to 40F tomorrow. Is this going to also have an impact on our temperatures from the Arctic blast? GFS 12z only showed us getting to +7F in KC metro. Without any significant snows between now and then, I think that also is a big factor that may get in the way of us dropping below zero. We can, but it’s hard, to drop below zero without snow cover.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Hard but possible. Jan 1 2018 had no snow cover. There were a few tiny spots of snow left over from the snowfalls on Dec 24 and 26, 2017, but nothing significant at all. Probably where we’ll be by Wednesday.

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Yep the morning of Jan 1, 2018…I had no snow cover and dropped to -15°

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Bring on cold

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Come on up to Minnesota and say that Johny! Lol

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

F00dl3 and MMike. The Weather1 app indicates that the week of February 3rd will be active with a couple of storm systems coming out of the Rockies. One or two could become snowstorms as arctic air heads south. Just saying….this has been popping up on the models so just something to watch. Have a great weekend and enjoy the warmup.🌞

MMike
Guest
MMike

Rockdoc,

You sure, because the week of Feb. 3rd a cycle ago was dry and warm relative to averages. We got active Dec. 26th and then again Dec. 31st, so that would put those two storms the week of Feb. 10th.

Keep in mind both storms were all rain as we were in a warm pattern.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary mentioned a possible storm the first few days of Feb a few days bacl

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Those two storms are Feb. 13 and Feb. 18, assuming I’ve got it right. The hypothetical February 3 storm is completely unsupported by the LRC. 18z GFS got rid of it completely, and I wouldn’t expect it back.

But, there is some snow on it still in NE+IA. Storms have shown a tendency to shift south this season, so maybe we’ll end up with a surprise snowfall like we did on Tuesday.

Jeffg
Guest
Jeffg

I am enjoying the discussion on the possibility of a storm early February. I too looked back at the last cycle and it was dry. If this storm does indeed happen it would not match up with the LRC. However, the models show it pretty strongly. It will be interesting to see which scenario wins out.

jeffnKs
Guest
jeffnKs

WOW from what they are saying down here in Wichita is we get cold but not as cold as you all. We are like on the edge of all this real cold. I feel for you all up in KC.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

The trolls have been MIA. Is that bc of the new blog format or have we just been lucky?

MMike
Guest
MMike

Stl78,

You sound like you miss them? Lol

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Lol..maybe a little Mike! Ha

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Looks like there may be snow coming our way between February 4th and 5th. I think this fits with the LRC. Hope we don’t get the modeled amount.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snod&rh=2019012612&fh=252&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc
Terry
Guest
Terry

Yes Gary said it does fit the LRC I need said there would be a storm around that time.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Unless I’m missing something, no it doesn’t. It matches up with the middle of the warm, sunny period in December. In fact, there was almost no precipitation anywhere in the country for several days.

Don’t get me wrong, I would absolutely love for it to happen. I’m just saying, don’t be too disappointed or surprised if it goes poof.

MMike
Guest
MMike

snowflakeparkville, That is correct. We are entering a period of very dry conditions for the Midwest/Plains and a blow torch that set up around Dec. 11th. Here in Kc we had 34(starting Dec. 11th and ending Jan. 18th) of the next 39 days above average on temps. The repeat of this should happen starting tomorrow. We also went 23 days in between without any major moisture.(this was not only for KC but for most folks east of the Rockies out into the Midwest and Plains, it was a very dry period for most) We warmed up, stayed dry and didn’t… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

If we do get something Gary will just say it’s the same but different. lol.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Are you still on your 37 theory?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Not so sure about that. Sometimes the 1st cycle aligns with 3rd, and 2nd cycle aligns with 4th. Based on what you’ve just said we should be warm next week, but instead we’ll be in the freezer. Wasn’t the end of October into early November well below normal? Plus we had some snow in that time frame.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

November was the coldest on record. I think there really might be something to the “cold cycle/warm cycle/cold cycle/warm cycle” thing. If so, March may turn very warm halfway through.

matt
Guest
matt

20.1 in Indiana. 18 nearby.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

12z gfs fantasy around Feb 4th!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

link?

Terry
Guest
Terry

No because Gary said there will be a storm around that time and he said that it does fit the LRC. So no it’s not fantasy

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

but that amount might be fantasy…a foot to a foot and a half

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Not to be contrarian, but this “arctic blast” doesn’t really seem like much of an event for us in KC. Yes, one state north and beyond, it looks like a significant event. But for us, we’re not even getting that much colder than we did in November.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I see an interesting scenario approaching. AO is forecasted for a dip, then a bigger dip. Nothing from the NAO. But a warm up is looking possible a week out. So if the AO goes negative about the time our slight SW flow and or zonal moisture stream sets up, would that; 1. Put us in position to continue what winter has done so far, ie; slight warming, storm brings rain then transitions to snow with backside cold? Or 2. Allow for dumps of artic air to precede storms so that they are all snow and higher fluff factor? Or… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Light snow falling with current temp of -5. Up to an inch today and then 8 to 12 sun/mon followed by Arctic air. Currently have about a 6 in snowpack.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

When was the last time we hit those lows that are coming Wed-Thurs

John
Guest
John

Last year on New Years Day, and it was even colder than those lows.

matt
Guest
matt

Hopefully the Groundhog next Saturday doesn’t see his shadow so the Warm up can be in the 70’s.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Morning… wind-chill of -30 this morning…sigh

Elaine Watson. McLouth
Guest
Elaine Watson. McLouth

Hang in there!

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

😫 crazy cold stay safe Stl78

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Thx Andrew!

Chris
Guest
Chris

Stl78….where was that weather last week when I was up there lol!?!? Would’ve loved to experience the cold and snow!!! Stay safe and warm working out in the stuff will be challenging to say the least!!!