A Stronger Arctic Blast Next Week

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

Sunny2

The temperature dropped to 1 degree below zero this morning, and a stronger Arctic Blast is likely next week.  Let’s take a look at the surface forecast valid Sunday evening:

3

This surface forecast map above shows one of the many computer model solutions for later this weekend.  This shows a storm forming off the southeastern United States coast, and a surface cyclone forming over southeastern North Dakota.  A strong Arctic front will be developing later this weekend and there will be a little warm up ahead of this system.  Snow will form over Minnesota and North Dakota, building southeast over Iowa and heading towards Chicago by Monday.  A thin band of rain and snow showers is possible near KC, and only for a brief three hour window early Monday.  Besides this chance of precipitation, it looks fairly dry for a while. Remember, KC went a long time between snowfalls in the last cycle. Let’s see how  long we go in this LRC Cycle.

2

How far south will this Arctic air push?  This morning it dropped to -1° and this was colder than most computer models had indicated. The models do not do well with the southward extent of the coldest air.  This map above shows 22 below zero near the  northern Missouri border, and it has our attention.  This also shows -40° dipping down into the United States. Did you know that -40° is a rather extremely important number in meteorology?  Why do you think it is such an important number?

  • Weather Fact Of The Day:  Did you know that -40°F is the same as -40°C?  Yes, when the temperature drops to 40 degrees below zero, it is the same temperature in Fahrenheit and Celsius!

I just thought I would share this with you. Did you know this fact?

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly Sunny and warmer. High 32° with wind chills near zero this morning and 15 this afternoon.
  • Saturday:  Periods of clouds.  High: 37°
  • Sunday:  Sunny with periods of clouds. High: 41°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Life you have any questions or comments, go over to the blog at Weather2020.com.

Have a great day,

Gary

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

62
Leave a Reply

avatar
26 Comment threads
36 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
40 Comment authors
David Pollardf00dl3snowflakeparkvilleCmwRoger Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
David Pollard
Guest
David Pollard

I know Gary says if we hit 95 + for 3 straight days then we are in a heat wave, if I remember that correctly. So, Gary what is the definition of an “arctic blast” in your book?

David Pollard
Guest
David Pollard

Can you count it as an arctic blast if it only gets to 7? Models may not handle the push of arctic air too well. -7 would certainly be an arctic blast. I always feel that hitting 0 or lower for KC is a true arctic threshold.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Latest GFS only has us bottoming out at +7 with the next Arctic blast. As I was suspecting the core will pass to our north.

Joe
Guest
Joe

So I guess the next round of significant precip should be towards the end of Feb?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

first few days of Feb

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Lol

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Feb 13

JackFrost
Guest
JackFrost

Was officially -6 this am in Holt, MO

Cmw
Member
Cmw

I heard on nbc radio news it was supposed to snow sat night and again monday No accumulation

KirksvilleDave
Guest
KirksvilleDave

It was -6 this am in Kirksville.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Temps for January 30, 1996 through February 4, 1996 at MSP, showing high and low for each day. I walked to school in that stuff.
-7, -20
2, -23
-12, -27
-17, -32
-11, -26
4, -23

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Looking back I did receive some precipitation around the 20th and 21st of December based on the current cycle length I think this fits for something to come back through around February 3-4th. The FV3-GFS shows this on Feb 4th. Looks mostly dry and cold with some quick hits of snow for the next week or so; maybe we’ll get some more organized precipitation and some accumulating snowfall in early February.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019012512&fh=6

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This zone north of Manhattan dipped to 3° last night. It actually began warming up at midnight when the wind changed from north to south, and it is currently 35°.

Dustin TheWind
Guest
Dustin TheWind

Another fun fact about -40 degrees. It is the all-time record low for both Kansas and Missouri.

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/coldest-temperature-recorded-50-states

Fatty
Guest
Fatty

What’s coolest of all is that both Missouri’s highest and lowest temps ever were both in the same place – Warsaw.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I’ve been so happy to see the sun the past few days. Gary, what do you think about the Chiefs new Defensive Coordinator?

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Remember, no talking of the psycho length, or has that changed? Some seem to think the cold is here to stay for awhile, hopefully hangs on through the next wet psycho. But, our Minnesota friend dealing with -20 to -30 below, um no thank you here! For his sake we’ll pray for modifying temps.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Psycho? Is that a Freudian slip?

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Psycho!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

“psycho,” or, the reason you shouldn’t write your comments by voice dictation to your phone :p

Ted in StJoe
Guest
Ted in StJoe

The LRC calls for the temperatures to warm up after this cold snap. I am willing to satisfy for normal, high of 38° low of 18°. Normal would be a heat wave!

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Just an addendum to my post this morning in the previous blog…

I want to make sure everyone knows I did not leave our dog outside at 2:30 this morning…I had to let her out to relive herself…she was back inside within 2 minuets!!!

Have a great Friday…

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

My backdoor neighbor’s retrievers are outside in the cold all the time. They don’t seem to mind at all.

Troy
Guest
Troy

I have always had retrievers of some sort, they do fine outside. Bigger dogs can take it a lot better than little ones. We just give him plenty of straw in his house.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Not when it’s this brutal cold outside, especially if they don’t have a good shelter that is wind protected with lots of straw. Water is also another issue since it freezes. Then what?

Joe
Guest
Joe

Based on that assertion, it is a wonder how all the wild animals survive?

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Wild being the key word.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

It was 5 degrees outside when I woke up this morning around 5:30. Not sure if it dropped more earlier.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

My 2902A Osprey weather station hit a low of 0.0 at 4:05a. It stayed pretty close to that until about 6a when it climbed to 1.0.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Seems like a lot of places reached their coldest at a bit after 4. Maybe my temperature was inaccurate? I don’t know of any “frost hollow” type areas in Platte County.

Rickmckc (i-29 & 64th)
Guest
Rickmckc (i-29 & 64th)

My house does sit at one of the lowest spots in this area so that may account for the difference.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Thanks for the fun fact of the day. I will tell my kiddos that one. I recorded -6 up here in Maryville at around three in the morning. I hope that we do not get down quite that cold next week. I cant remember the last time it was >-20 degrees! Brrrrr! Have a great weekend Bloggers,
Michael

Ted in StJoe
Guest
Ted in StJoe

1982,1983, 1985 and 1989 that i can remember.

Ted in StJoe
Guest
Ted in StJoe

How much will the lack of snow cover keep the temperatures from plummeting to -5 to-15? As a general rule that is a big component in extreme cold in this area. In looking at the National Weather Service snow cover map there is ssow to our north except an area in northeast Nebraska that has no snow. The rest of the area to our North is snow-covered. If we get up to near freezing today it will eat away at the snow and then the next warm up before the next coldl will eat into it as well particularly if… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I did not know that -40 fact…very interesting!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

-15 up here this morning and we have broken rails because of it. Workin outside in these conditions is very difficult on us and our machinery. Next week looks like a warning criteria snow which will aid in the temp plummet next week. -30+ looks sadly doable.. might be even able to see first hand where Celsius and Fahrenheit meet….-40!!!!!🤬

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

That’s brutally cold! If you have any vacation time saved up I’d be heading to Florida about next week!
Michael

steelwheel67
Guest
steelwheel67

What Rail Road do you work for? I work for one here in KC.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think it’s possible there may have been a minimum around 4:10 AM because I went on an early bike ride and it seemed like there was a period about 1/3rd into my ride where it was colder but then warmed up a bit – or my body heat warmed me up. My home thermometer was at 10.8F and Olathe was at 7F. I do really question that -1F reading.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Did it really get down to -1? When I checked the temp just before 7 this morning it was more like 9 degrees, and that’s close to what is usually the coldest part of the day.

Brian
Guest
Brian

I was surprised by that as well. It was 9 when I left the house around 4:45 this morning and my car read 12 when I came back around 7. This was all out in S OP.

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

If there is little wind, there is often a brief period right as the sun is rising when the temperature drops several degrees for a few minutes. In my opinion, this is an artifact and not a true representation of the true low temperature. I doubt that records older than 1950’s would have enough resolution to detect this sudden cooling, except in a few places.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

I don’t know when it touched -1, but last night on the 10pm weather Gary did day it may bottom out around zero around 2am, but then start rising a bit before sunrise. Fred Souder is correct that right before sunrise is when it’s usually the coldest, but I don’t think that happened in this situation. Just a function of the high pressure moving further away I think.

Josh
Guest
Josh

This temperature I am assuming was taken at KCI. It was 1 degree this morning at 445am when I was up for work. It was around 10 downtown.

Troy
Guest
Troy

I am 3 hrs NW of you but I had a low of 2 at about 1 am. By 6 am it was up to 12. It clouded up and the wind picked up from the SW. It doesn’t take much to move the thermometer when its cold.

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

9 was my low in Independence. It had “warmed” to 10 by sunrise.

sierravista
Guest
sierravista

Good morning, Gary and all. Hoping we don’t see the bitter cold. 22 below at the northern MO border? Wow! Although I really enjoy the snow, I’m ready for spring!

A1hoops
Guest
A1hoops

Gary using the LRC shouldn’t we know when next storm system will be moving through the area? Also doesn’t every other cycle mirror each other so we can compare this cycle to the last right?

Jeffg
Guest

Based on the LRC I wouldn’t expect us to get much of anything until maybe Feb 13th-Feb. 15th. Then maybe on Feb 18th. The next big chance of snow should be 3/1. I put all the snow events into a spreadsheet and from that you can really see the pattern at least by precipitation. Gary, can you confirm this?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I thought Gary said a couple of days ago that based on the LRC, we should expect a storm in the first few days of February.

smizell
Guest
smizell

What is the approximate cycle length this year? I am struggling to find it. We had a good amount of rain just before the new year, that should be coming back through soon?

Jeffg
Guest

The comparative events I used were the blizzard on Nov. 25th and our snow on Jan.12th.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

He did, but I don’t see it. There is no corresponding event in December, even though models are showing something around February 4.

Clint
Guest
Clint
Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

First?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Congrats!

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I gave you a +1 for being first.