Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Good morning bloggers,

A series of Arctic fronts will be tracking across the northeastern half of the United States during the next week.  Here is one of the fronts on our doorstep as of 7 AM:

2

There is a band of clouds and snow showers north of the front.  A few snowflakes may fall later today.  A fast moving disturbance aloft will be associated with each cold surge, and we will be monitoring these closely for any snow or mixture of precipitation during this next week.  The strongest disturbance, that may produce a little snow in Kansas City, will track across the nation around next Wednesday-Thursday.  The GFS and Euro models have a ridiculously cold outbreak as the Arctic blast of 2019 potentially arrives as you can see below:

3

f5weather-16

This would be a record breaking cold air mass, if it is indeed this strong.  The models have been hinting at this for the past couple of weeks, and conditions are becoming favorable for this to be unleashed and blast south. We will discuss this as the new data comes in.

It has now snowed on 22 days including the earliest measurable snowfall in Kansas City’s recorded history October 14th:

10

1

There are some locations in the KC metro area that are up to 25″ of snow already this season.  How much snow do you have for the season thus far?  Let us know on the Weather2020 blog by clicking here:

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 7.28.41 AM

This magazine was published yesterday.  Here is the link to the article:  Blogger Local

Have a great day!  Bundle up!

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

70
Leave a Reply

avatar
35 Comment threads
35 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
36 Comment authors
snowflakeparkvilleBill in Lawrencesnow haterAndrewJeff Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary:
Good winters morning to you sir!!

Hit 2 degrees this morning at around 2:30 when I let the pooch out. When I went out at 5:30 we were in a return flow and had risen to 7 degrees. We were close……if the return flow had held off for another 8-10 hours we would have gone below 0…whatever the case, 2 degrees is cold!!!

Clinton Lake has for the second year in a row frozen completely over…

Have a great Friday everyone

Bill Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

snow hater
Guest
snow hater

gets your dogs in from the outsise to colsd for them even the heat mizer

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Forgot to mention one HUGE plus to new format – anti spam. It seems to have stopped the troll.
Much appreciated !!
Drip those faucets tonight that are on walls that face the outside.
I was told by my plumber long ago, after I had frozen pipes, to turn both hot and cold on. Pencil size drip.
We turn them on at night if it gets to 10 or below. Haven’t had a frozen pipe since in our 50 yr old house that does not have a basement, only a crawl space.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

HRRR fell off it’s rocker? HRRR says -6F for Olathe tomorrow morning :O

Jeff
Guest
Jeff

If it is -6F that could cause problems for schools

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Would still appreciate if time stamps appeared with comments again.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Sorry posted twice. Because first one did not show up.
Also if we sort oldest to newest there is no place to comment at bottom of page.
So I am posting this on my own comment.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Would still like to see time stamp on comments again.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

What’s with this storm that the GFS and FV3 have for February 4-ish? Doesn’t seem to fit the LRC at all.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I know its going to be cold for the next several days, maybe the next 2 weeks. But, when does the warmer part of the Pattern cycle back through like we had in December? That was cycle #2 if I recall correctly, so wouldn’t it be most likely to be warmer during that same period of the 4th cycle?
That was just a long complicated way of asking when will I be able to go fishing?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

My guess…
– A storm resembling the November 25 and January 11-12 storms on or near March 2. KC’s biggest snowstorms have historically been in late February and March, so it’s possible that this could end up being the biggest event this winter, but we’ll see. We really do have excellent storm placement in the calendar this year…one right at the beginning of the time period when big storms are possible, one in the middle, one near-ish to the end.
– Two weeks of near-to-slightly-above-average temperatures.
– Warmth like December’s from around March 20 to around April 20.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

On air tonight Gary said 50’s will be back in 2 weeks.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Very possible, that’s the return of the “Christmas mini-heatwave.” People say that cycles 1 and 3 are similar though, and 1 is what gave us the record cold November, so I guess we’ll see what happens.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

This Euro setting is for air temperatures at 6 AM Friday. Change the map selection for a closer look at each state.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/temperature-f/20190125-1200z.html

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think the 12z FV3 GFS has a good idea of how these Arctic airmasses are sliding to our north – we bottom out at 5F on the 30th/31st but St Joe gets in the below zero temperatures. It may be overdone slightly but the general idea we are on the very edge.

Fred Souder
Guest
Fred Souder

How do we feel about the format that has the most recent posts at the top instead of the bottom? Replies to original posts are still farther down, but original posts appear at the top.
I prefer the old method, where new posts appear at the bottom, and replies are inset below, but I’m not overly inconvenienced by this new format.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

I can’t speak for the mobile version but on the desktop site you can sort by Newest or oldest. It’s below the Join the discussion box (right-side.)

Jimchief
Guest
Jimchief

Thank you! That was driving me crazy!!

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

But when we put oldest at top and scroll down to newest, if lot of comments, at bottom we get a load more comments pop up. That is then slow going to get to all of the comments.

Troy
Guest
Troy

27.5 inches of snow in Concordia, KS beats the record for snow to date of 27.2 in 1983-84. Also the 10.28″ of moisture since Oct 1 beats 1992-93 10.24″ for the wettest for that period. I am 35 miles NW of Concordia but have had very similar precip. We average about half of our annual snow (20 inches) after this date so the potential for a big year is there.

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

OH!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Dr Postel had a really good explanation about next week’s arctic blast. A “chunk” of the polar vortex will break off and will be sliding into the upper Midwest. What’s crazy is the surface pressure of 1046mb Wednesday at 6pm. Modeled temp for KC is -3 degrees. Looks like that SST warming event is starting to have its effect.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2019012412&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Was he the same one who said we would have a STW event earlier this month that never materialized?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Whoops, got the acronym wrong. I should have used SSW. It did happen at the end of December into early January. It takes time to translate downward into the troposphere. It appears to be doing just that, and Canada and the US are on the receiving end.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/sudden-stratospheric-warming-underway/

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I guess what I’m trying to say is during accuweather’s predicted SSW last time around, the coldest we got was 17 degrees. I think their science is based more on theory and not on fact, while the LRC is what we should be using. Accuweather and The Weather Channel I will swear are the worst places to get weather info period. I think in reality any site who brags their meteorologists are Doctors are of questionable integrity and most of their articles are of clickbait quality. I would take Gary’s word over Dr. Forbes or Dr. Who anyday.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Since things look pretty uneventful for the foreseeable future, I’m going to post my top 5 winter events that I’ve experienced where I was living at the time. I’d like to see others as well. 1. Groundhog Day Snow Storm 2011–Chicago, Illinois. 20 inches of snow and blizzard conditions 2. Arctic Outbreak Jan-Feb 1996 — Minneapolis Minn. — Low temp of -32 degrees and a high temp of -17 degrees with several days in the teens and 20s below zero 3. Snowstorm January 12, 2019 — Overland Park, KS — 24 hours of snow adding up to a foot. This… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

I can beat your January 12 with absurdity! 33 hours of snow added up to only 4 inches in Parkville, from about 1PM January 11 to about 10PM January 12.

LibertyWeatherGuy
Guest
LibertyWeatherGuy

Thought I’d throw this out here. The Christmas Blizzard of 2009 up in our home town in Iowa. 3 days straight of snow totaling 27 inches, steady 35-45 mph winds with larger gusts all three days, snow “drifts” overhanging the gutters on our family’s roof by upwards of three feet. The wind howled all day, and at night while sleeping it was an eerie sound but was music to my ears because I knew what was awaiting me outside in the morning, more snow to shovel and larger drifts everywhere than the day before. I documented it with some awesome… Read more »

Adam
Guest
Adam

It just became much colder and windier in downtown kc

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I’m gonna go on a limb and say we do not drop below zero in the KC metro area. I don’t think it will happen with this LRC. I just don’t see the setup. I’m going to strongly advise to throw away those models right now. All of them. It just doesn’t fit our pattern. KC will be on the very fringe of the Arctic air and while it may get bitter to our north I think KC will stay above zero. St Joe may drop to -10F though.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

A small counter to your point, with a negative AO, even the lightest snowpack and were going to tank temp wise. Last winter proved, in that horrible, dysfunctional pattern, we can indeed way negative.
I think the coldest was -15 in mid January.
I understand the flow is different this year but as we have seen, the right conditions and look out.
Just the same if we get a deep negative NAO. Can you imagine a blocked atmosphere with all this moisture.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

coldest at KCI was -11 on Jan 1 2018 but there was another cold spell in the middle of the month that dropped to -5

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

But where is Gary saying “this is the part of the pattern that can produce an Arctic blast”. Looking back given believed length, the blast last time didn’t even make it into the US. I can see sub zeros getting as far south as southern Iowa but not much closer.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

For this year, yes. Last year, you could actually watch those vortexes swing down and through, and repeated over and over till it just went poof, right into summer. However this year, the western ridge is not as dominant and the flow aloft keeps that artic air a bit bottled up north. Aside from when systems swing through dragging cold air down and creating its own cold air. I believe in Gary’s winter forecast, he mentioned at least one chance of an artic outbreak. If there is way to look at all the mechanisms that lead to a negative AO,… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

The question is is the part of the pattern that causes the AO to go negative the part of the pattern that surfaced early in the season? If so, cold air over the CONUS is a byproduct of a more northern positioned southern branch causing more diving of the cold air due to the way storms form in the southern branch. This means that during the heart of winter, it will be hard to get a negative AO/NAO combo, but once we move into Spring we will have a very cold Spring and our “Arctic blasts” will arrive in Spring,… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

The cold front up here means business. We have dropped to 5 degrees with a wc of -17 with blowing and drifting snow. Wind gust in excess of 30 mph have been reported. Worst part is we are only going to continue to plummet. Snowstorm for sun/Mon will add to our snow pack and add to our cold spell next week. Several days we may not get out of negative double digits for highs. Sure hope the data is wrong!

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I guess you wont be wearing that black tank-top in your picture anytime soon! LOL! Stay warm, brother and keep the pipes thawed!
Michael

Mary in Shawnee
Guest
Mary in Shawnee

Just went through MSP on the way back home from a work trip this morning – thought I was going to get frostbite on the jet bridge 🙂 Holy cow it’s cold up there…downright balmy in Shawnee in comparison

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

CMC model has temperatures approaching the all-time cold record on February 1. This could get crazy.

-11 on January 1 2018, no snow cover…if we have snow, how intense could this go?

Kristi
Guest
Kristi

Next chance of measurable snowing showing up at all yet? Sorry, a little late to the discussion…

WEATHERBY TOM
Guest
WEATHERBY TOM

18.7″ at Weatherby Lake, let’s double that for the season!!

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

We will not see that type of cold. The all-time record low in 1974 for Saint Joe is -25°. I remember that day and very vividly as I had a basketball game and had to walk to it. I spit and it froze before it hit the ground. It will not happen if we do not receive an additional three or 4 inches of snow. I can see low temperatures getting to -20° with highs in the single digits below zero if it is cloudy. We had an outbreak like this when I was in law school I think in… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

December 22 1983, -23F in KC.

Sooner Than Now
Guest
Sooner Than Now

1989….not 1983.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Are u the St Joe lawyer from yrs ago?

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

Yes or Stjoeattorney

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Ahhh..welcome back

TED in StJoe
Guest
TED in StJoe

thanks …

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

I wish the cold would just go POOF already. We need some warmer temperatures.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Ask my hotheaded brother for that, I’ll have nothing to do with it!

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

24.5 inches of snow so far this season in south OP. It would be amazing if the second half of winter had the same amount. Not that I’m holding my breath.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

I have recorded 24.3” of snow so far this season in Ashland, MO. Thinking there is a good chance I end up with over 30” by the end of winter/spring.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Bill
Guest
Bill

These arctic blasts are my LEAST favorite parts of winter. I’ll trade you powder and this arctic crud for some wet snow (not too much) and 30 degrees. I moved into the city to get closer to work and walk my dog twice a day . . . well, he enjoys the winter, but I sure as heck do not.

Five weeks from tomorrow until the meteorological spring!!! I CANNOT WAIT.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

LOL… you don’t go by meteorological spring. A good two months of winter left…hearing that Feb will be way below normal temp wise and march somewhat below normal

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Remember how cold last April was too.

Bill
Guest
Bill

True…but also remember how warm December turned out! I’m ready for some low 70s to low 80s in March.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Adding my measurements, I have 16″ even in Parkville. Probably the lowest season total in the metro.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I wish people would quit paying attention to the Euro. As long as people still want to use it they will continue to get away with charging more than I make in a year to access the data. We need to boycott it.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

That cold looks like a bastard, I hope it stays where it’s projected with the core to the north and east of us.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

Looks like we’re going into a boring pattern for awhile.

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Stewartsville, MO….31” so far this season!!

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I have recorded 27″ of snow in Maryville so far this season.
Michael

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Gary,
I still need to get my book signed! Maybe I’ll come down next time your at Nebraska Furniture Mart. I bought three copies! Thanks for what you and your weather team does for our area. Been a fun winter so far!
Michael

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

Finally, the cold to actually help the snow

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Yea, the snow that’s already on the ground lol

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

i meant to keep it on the ground (Duh!)

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

First

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

Must one be ‘logged on’ to see the newest blog entry? I’ve been on this website several times in the last 30 min and am only now seeing the latest daily post by the weather team.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Not sure if you’re using a mobile device or not, but I’ve found on mobile that tends to happen for awhile after the blog has been posted. For whatever reason I haven’t noticed this issue on the desktop version of the blog.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

first is the new last. lol!!