A Storm Forms With Rain & Snow Likely

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Good morning bloggers,

Who is ready for some more snow?  Did you know it has now snowed on 20 days so far this season?  In Kansas City, this season began with the earliest measurable snow ever recorded on October 14th.  Here are the snowfalls from just a trace amount indicated by the T:

1

There have been ten days with measurable snowfall already, and today is likely going to make it 11, and tomorrow may be the 12th date with measurable snow as it may last past midnight.  Why? Because we have this storm system developing right now:

13

The trend has been for this system to evolve and track a bit farther south, and evolve into a splitting upper level storm. One part may form and spin north into Nebraska and Iowa and weaken, and a new disturbance will likely break off and redevelop tracking just south of KC. This second disturbance is the one to watch for increasing snow potential tonight. If it doesn’t quite separate and break off, then the chance of accumulation farther south will be less.  I favor the breaking off and strengthening system as that is what happened in this part of the pattern in the last LRC cycle.  Kansas City only had around 1/2″ of snow out of that system, and it developed and intensified right over the city. It was just a fast moving weak system, and this one looks slightly stronger than that one. here i one possible solution for around 10 PM tonight:

2

Notice the little dry area east of KC.  This is likely being caused by “the dry slot” which may form.  If this dry slot develops, it may be hard to recover and pull the snow farther south, unless the storm tracks farther south, which has been the trend.

7

I am trying to show you what may happen tonight.  Notice the upper low over southern Iowa.  If this is stronger, then the dry slot will take over and we will get just a dusting. If that northern system weakens, and the southern system strengthens, even just a little bit more than this RUC model shows, then 2 to 3 inches will be possible.  As a result I am showing this snowfall potential forecast at the moment, and we will look for these features tonight. I will point them out on 41 Action News, IF I can find them on the satellite or radar images:

Snow

These our the numbers I adjusted showing aggressive totals for this situation.  Let’s see what happens:

12

Kansas City Weather Time-line:

  • Today:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain developing later in the day.  South winds at 15-30 mph will warm temperatures into the 40s.
  • 4 PM – 7 PM: The wind will shift to the northwest and temperatures will drop to near or below 32 degrees by the end of the rush hour. A rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow changeover line will likely develop and move across the KC metro area.
  • 7 PM – 4 AM:  The precipitation will change to snow and then end. One period of heavy snow is possible. Accumulations of a dusting to 3″ is likely near KC.  Now, remember this means a dusting to 1/2″ is possible, and if it is better organized some spots may get higher amounts.  Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 20s with slick and hazardous conditions developing
  • Wednesday:  Becoming mostly sunny and cold.  The wind will shift to the southwest and be gusty up to 25 mph leading to cold wind chills near 10 degrees. High:  29°

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  This is another LRC bullseye to hit this week.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments and let’s discuss the new data on the Weather2020 blog. Here is the link:

Have a great day!

Gary

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AraigneeAlexPickmanStl78(winon,mn)CraigMacf00dl3 Recent comment authors
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AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

Just over 5 inches of snow here in Stewartsville, MO..15 min east of St. Joe. Can’t get an exact measurement due to the wind last night, so I’ll just say 5” even. Looks amazing outside. This snow brings my season total to **31 INCHES!!** That was a fun storm…Currently 10 degrees here

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Gary, I think the new format is great! No matter what u can never please everyone but I appreciate the continued efforts to improve the blog. The only thing would like to add would be to remove the banner and see if there is a way to post pics. For those that would like to post pics plz join our FB group. We currently have about 120 members and we are hoping Gary will join as well. Up here in MN, the storm missed to our south. Picked up about 2 in yesterday. Cold looks the blast in tomorrow. -40… Read more »

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

Woke up to no heat in the house. Anyone recommend someone on the Missouri side? I am in Grain Valley.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Coon heating and cooling

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So in the hindsight the HRRR has been the most accurate this season. NAM has it’s usual cold bias giving us more snow, NAM 3KM and GFS follow suite.

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

NAM did fine up here. 5” just east of St. Joe, and currently 10 degrees

Rodney’s Clockwork Angels
Guest
Rodney’s Clockwork Angels

3 inches of snow in Lawrence. Grass completely covered. With this years weather pattern, I wouldn’t be surprised if all the 20% chances of snow end up producing like this system did.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

More heavy snow in Prairie Village. A burst that came out of nowhere. I think it may snow on / off all night.

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

Roads are insanely bad in KCMO at the moment.

My dog couldn’t get up my back steps because of the ice and I had to risk my life carrying him up (he’s 70 pounds!)

Also just want to say I’m not a fan of the “load more comments” and the order of the comments being newest to oldest by default. I do like the way the replies are organized and easier to tell who people are replying to though. All in all, change is scary, Gary!

Araignee
Guest
Araignee

You can change the order of the comments if you click “oldest” with the arrow beside it at the top of the comments.

David Pollard
Guest
David Pollard

Almost 1″ of snow in Blue Springs in like 30 minutes. Wow. Hope we can squeeze out 2″ somehow.

d100patel
Guest
d100patel

About the same in Raymore.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Okay so now the comments are the latest ones on top instead of bottom.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Snowed hard for an hour. Almost down to flurries now.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Any updates on the band coming in from Wichita?

d100patel
Guest
d100patel

Setting up nicely for central Kansas at the moment…I think as the system moves away off to the east, it won’t really make it here in KC. Looks like the last bit is falling now 🙁

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Might swing up and miss to the north…

Alex in St. Joseph
Guest
Alex in St. Joseph

The short term mesoscale models show the upper level low west of KC (you can see the rotation around that dry center) developing further probably by means of a deformation zone as it interacts with the more well defined low that’s marching out of the area now. It should create something of a comma head and continue light to moderate snow through NE KS/NW MO for a few more hours.

Ted
Guest
Ted

st joe 2 hrs of S++ over 3 in. deformation band looks tp be setting up too

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

What does that mean about deformation zone?

Matt
Guest
Matt

Like that new comments are at top. In backyard Patio/Deck has Snow again 101st and Lamar Ave.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Snow winding down here. 3 inches easily, but difficult to tell as the drifting in areas is 6-12 inches. If it’s windy all night then there’s gonna be some incredible drifting. Can’t wait to see what it looks like in the morning.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Wow snow is piling up fast in Prairie Village and the Radar is building up to the west!

Melanie
Guest
Melanie

Heavy snow in Eastern Shawnee now.

Someweatherdude
Guest
Someweatherdude

I think there’s approximately a 0% chance of that stuff out west having any impact in KC.

39th&Blue
Guest
39th&Blue

You all can stop asking questions about the roads or morning commute. Crews will have more than enough time to treat. I also just finished driving over one hundred miles on the north and west side of the metro and while the roads are covered in ice, I did not slide or get stuck at all. I reduced my speed, and gave myself plenty of space. Moron drivers out there? Yes. Just drive defensively is all you have to remember. Also, be thankful this (so far for many) has been more a sleet producer than freezing rain. Sleet provides for… Read more »

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…why woiuld you take your kids to school if the school is closed?

39th&Blue
Guest
39th&Blue

That part was intentionally silly 💁

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…Im just sayin….are people talking about not taking their kids to school if the school is open?

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Easily over 3 inches now at my work in St. Joe. This may turn into a 3 to 6 inch snow up here. Snow rates are fairly impressive. Going to be a fun drive home to Stewartsville in the morning though, lol. 36 was a sheet of ice driving in at 5:30 tonight…Also LOVE the new blog layout!! So nice having the new comments at the top!!

John
Guest
John

Very heavy snow at 152 and 169 highway. Already close to an inch and it has only been completely snow for the last 30-45 minutes.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Very heavy at I-435 and 64th as well. It’s really coming down. Only been all snow for about an hour and we’re at an inch.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Hey Gary, you showed one inch in Lawrence on your newscast, but we are at two inches now.

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

Whoa! New layout on the blog. It’s sleeting in Independence with a little icy underneath.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Looks to be ending soon unless we get some redevelopment off to the west. Models are a joke in these situations. Even the mesoscale models.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Look at the radar – it IS redeveloping to the west.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Nope.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

About 4 inches here in Atchison… good snow rates the past hour and a half.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Whoa, freaky new layout. Will have to get used to new posts at the top.

Anyway, I’m really kinda meh about this storm. Can’t get that excited over an inch or two.

Someweatherdude
Guest
Someweatherdude

Judging by the radar, the models layed their second egg in less than a week for the KC metro.

Becky
Guest
Becky

Heavy snow in NKC but can still hear sleet mixed in…pretty windy too

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Not sure where our snow is going to come from.

39th&Blue
Guest
39th&Blue

The sky.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yes, coming up on two inches in Central Lawrence…lol…but measured 4.5 inch snow drifts between car in the parking lot. Very nice little snow. I hope that snow to the west develops enough to come in later and give us another inch.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

all sleet in Lenexa near old town, bout 1/8″ accumulation

CJMitch
Guest
CJMitch

All snow now in Gardner.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

The edit option is nice to have but we have how long to use it ? Tried with my first comment but said it was no longer available to edit.
Overall I like this format.
It still feels awkward or backwards to scroll down to read a long comment ( such as Bills) then have to scroll back up to see the next comment.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Is that a swath of snow building to the west?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Why yes it is

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Coming down like crazy now!

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

All snow now. Light to moderate rate. 25 degrees.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good late evening to you sir!! Had a couple good bands of moderate snow move through here…..guessing we are approaching 2 inches here just SW of Lawrence. Its not really the snow for here but the hour of freezing rain we had followed by 45 min to an hour of sleet. Roads are quite the mess especially in rural areas of Douglas County. I’m counting my lucky stars school was cancelled tomorrow. I still have to go to school and work but at least now I can plow at 6:30 instead of 4:30 🙂 🙂 This storm for sure… Read more »

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

SMSD closed tomorrow – snow day.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Android comments work now! Awesome!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Love the new blog format!

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Scrolling up instead of down ?
Feels backwards

Angie (169Hwy & 435N)
Guest
Angie (169Hwy & 435N)

Looks like you can choose how you want to read the comments…newest, oldest and most voted. Right above the top of the tread. Might check your settings.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Snowing now!

Weatherfreaker
Guest
Weatherfreaker

I love the way new comments are now moved to the top! Big improvement!

KSA
Guest
KSA

I love how I can change it back to new comments at the bottom if I want to.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Changed back to sleet mostly. Some snow mixed in. Temp down to 26.

Becky
Guest
Becky

I like how you see the new comments at the top!

Mike Adkins
Admin
Mike Adkins

Great! Thanks for the feedback!

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

This is the best update!!

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Anyone else seeing the new format for the comment thread. The text is super hard to see. Can I change this?
Edit: It’s fine now.

Mike Adkins
Admin
Mike Adkins

Making a few quick updates. Thanks for the feedback.

Michael Casteel
Member
Michael Casteel

Are schools have canceled also
Michael

Curtis
Guest
Curtis

Yep. School cancellations are starting to roll in. Saw Olathe cancelled about 15 minutes ago.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Blue valley just closed too

Michael Casteel
Member
Michael Casteel

Got a little over an inch of snow in Maryville coming down pretty good!
Michael

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

are yu sure Gary is doing a Facebook Live?

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

The main show may end here in SW Topeka soon looking at radar….but looks like a sold 2.5″ on the ground…maybe finish with around 3″? Quite the quick hitting storm! Looks like we changed comments format, too….excitement all around…lol

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Sleet mixing with snow now.