An Arctic Blast Arrives This Week

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Good morning,

In Kansas City we are recovering from another horrible playoff disappointment. The Chiefs lost 37-31 in overtime on a cold night at Arrowhead.  The Chiefs defense made a stop when Dee Ford was in the neutral zone and an interception that would have put the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the first time in 49 years was called back because of that penalty.  There are so many other take aways, but that moment was the one where the Super Bowl was in the Chiefs hands.  There is a lot more I might want to discuss here, such as the flawed overtime system in the NFL where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs did not even get the ball due to losing a coin toss, but I will move on, and it may hurt for a while longer.  It’s time to recover and realize that it is a game. We have our lives. We have some exciting weather to share.  It is just sports and weather, two passions I have.  So, let’s get back to weather, and enjoy each day.

The developing weather pattern:

A strong storm is going to develop tonight and Tuesday.  At the surface, this storm produces a low pressure center that will be near KC by 3 PM Tuesday afternoon.  Here is a look at that storm system.  Let me know if you have any questions about a surface maps such as this one.  The black lines are isobars, and I drew in the fronts:

4

This surface cyclone will pull the cold front through KC by late afternoon. There is a chance of a few snowflakes in KC as the cold air rushes in:

namconus_ref_frzn_scus_39

And some models have a lot of snow in northern Nebraska and Iowa:

gem_asnow_ncus_8

After this system moves by, we will be anticipating a stronger cold front due in Thursday night.  Take a look at this:

5

This now appears it will be the strongest cold blast of the season so far.  Temperatures will likely drop to near zero on Thursday night/Friday morning.  Some models have a little band of snow near the leading edge of this blast.  We will discuss this more in tomorrow’s blog.

Have a great day. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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39th&Blue
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39th&Blue

I think you all should just drop the model watching for today, and instead watch the radar, look outside when the atmosphere begins to precipitate, and just have fun. Looking at the models too much will fry your brains.

Troy
Guest
Troy

Now the NAM has come out and moved the snow another 100 miles East. I have never seen such inconsistency in models this close to the event.

Troy
Guest
Troy

What a change in the forecast. Last night at 6 pm we were forecast for a low of 33 with less than 1/2″ of snow today. Its already 23 here in RP county at 6 am there is a glaze of ice from freezing drizzle that is falling. Now we are projected to get 2-4″ of snow with some models showing 6+ inches.(if we can trust the models now) I think what snow we get will really blow because its windy (gusts to 35mph), the snow will be fairly dry at this temp, and the ground is already covered with… Read more »

Matt
Guest
Matt

OH good a surprise Snow Storm maybe can get more the 4 inches here.

Curtis
Guest
Curtis

Winter Weather Advisory issued.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

ooohhhhh…nice suprise…Bring it!!!! :-O

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

You’re welcome, brother. I’ll concede a nice big stretch of thunderstorms this coming spring.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

considering the NAM nailed the last storm, I would put high confidence in the low tracking further south and the heavy snow along with it.

John
Guest
John

Did the NAM nail the last storm because everyone kept talking about how much snow it was showing and then most of KC saw an inch or less of accumulation? I wouldn’t call a model showing 6+ for snow nailing it.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

Gary,

when will you up the snow totals for kc? if the data still shows higher totals in the morning?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

O̶c̶t̶o̶b̶e̶r̶ January Surprise!

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image GFS 00z looks good

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019012200&fh=6

So Gary with that low on these models organizing and tracking along the kansas border, would we just want to see that shift a tad bit south for a stronger trend?

Clint
Guest
Clint

A sneaky snow!

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

Like +1

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

If this trend continues we could have a nice snow event in KC

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

what are your thoughts Gary??

MMike
Guest
MMike

F00dl3,

We just might have that snow pack if the new 3K and 12k NAM are right.

Plus, drive up to the northland, we still have a decent snow pack.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

All the snow from Friday is still here in Parkville. Too cold for any of it to melt! If the ground wasn’t cold before, it is now.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

surprise winterstorm for KC maybe???

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I don’t think we will hit 2 FRI AM. GFS showing 16 for a low, with us being in edge of this blast.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

0z nam!!!

MMike
Guest
MMike

Storm tomorrow night on the NAM!

2-4 inches

Craig
Guest
Craig

Was just going to post that!
Suddenly the 0z NAM has a stringer storm with a more southerly track.
And yes, snow beginning in the metro tomorrow evening with 2-4″ totals!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Gary – I don’t think we will drop to 2 Friday like the 7-day shows. Without decent snow pack the GFS showing the coldest low of +15F this blast may well miss us. Hasn’t the core of cold air hit St Louis all season?

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

The Euro shows the low temperature at midnight Thursday will be 16° out west (Manhattan, Topeka & Marysville); 8° in KC and -10° in northwest Missouri.
comment image

JimH
Guest
JimH

LRC

Lonely
Richard
Conclusion?

RIP???

DefCon4
Guest
DefCon4

Not a Chiefs fan….but reading the previous threads and reaction after the game does make for entertaining reading…lol.
Boomer Sooner!
Go Cowboys!

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

^^^ Is that really allowed on here ?

Must be in a blue Monday mood.
Like a lot of us. But no excuse to act it out on here.

On to next year. And on to the next storm.

JimH
Guest
JimH

It’s the same but different…ass wipers

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

🤔 Huh ?

Real HumeDude
Guest
Real HumeDude

I’m believing “Arctic air” when I see it. Hasn’t happened yet……going off established LRC it wont happen either.

MMike
Guest
MMike

Hume,

If you go off that reasoning, how was there -45 degree temps in Minnesota. They didn’t have any arctic air in Nov/Dec either…just like KC

That same arctic plunge dove into Iowa also bringing below 0 temps. The arctic blast just wasn’t as strong once it hit KC although I hit 5 degrees Sunday morning which I would call dry/arctic air.

So, arctic air is in the pattern and it was not in Nov. and Dec. This would go against what I believe you meant in your comment.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

We are talking about predictions of arctic air making it down to KC, not what the temp is in Minnesota.

MMike
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MMike

Heat,

I get that, but he is using the fact that KC has not seen arctic air in this years LRC, so, if that’s the reason, it should be the reason there (Minnesota) too as they have yet to see arctic air in the pattern until several days ago..

My point, there is arctic air in the pattern, something we have not seen in this years LRC.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Mets used to be able to predict arctic air coming down over our area pretty accurately. Already twice this season it was predicted then it didnt really make it to us. Will this be a third?

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Looks like both the 12z EURO and GFS have backed off a little on the arctic air coming our way Thursday into Friday with temps in the teens. That being said, the GFS shows another impressive High developing the 1st week of February that slides our way. If this verifies watch out
🙁

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct_b&rh=2019012112&fh=384&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Anonymous
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Anonymous

kinda have to agree with mower mike. Reid has this crazy marty chip in his play

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Agreed on the OT. Play it in 8 minute segments and whoever is leading at the end wins – just like in regulation. If tied, play another.

matt
Guest
matt

Second it. At least after Patroits scored let Chiefs have a set of downs but in NHL/MLS the first Team to score in OP wins the Game.
Also that link shows KS side of Metro cold not like Florida warm.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

The difference of the NHL/MLS though is both teams have a chance at scoring. It’s not like one team gets to take a shootout shot and the other doesn’t. Whereas in the NFL, you may be at the mercy of the coin toss. Fact is this team did not show up in the first half of the game. 37 total yards in the first half should not happen. Yes the defense and its play calling or horrible but this was a team loss. Making a mental mistake of lining up in the neutral zone is unacceptable. That should never happen… Read more »

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

I mean seriously.. a 41 year old quarterback in OT and you DONT pressure or blitz? OT was a complete joke. Sutton should have been immediately fired upon their touchdown. Would have rather seen us give up a big play that way– then nickel and dime us the entire way down. Anyways- OT needs to be like college/high school….makes no sense OT is different in NFL than everywhere else football is played.

Jhawk95
Guest
Jhawk95

Sutton should have been fired during the off season last year! The Patriot organization would have never allowed him to continue. Anyone, and I mean anyone would have been an upgrade over Sutton and look where it got us. If it wasn’t for the offense and Mahome’s it would have been a different story this season. Great organizations have to make the tough decisions and they didn’t do it with Sutton. Can’t place the blame on Dee Ford. Epic meltdown my this defense.

JimT
Guest
JimT

Great season for our Chiefs!
Farthest they’ve been in a long time, I’m proud. Patriots on the other hand, unfortunately until Belichick and Brady part ways, the winning and titles will continue to stack up. Its annoying, I can’t help but think some of there games are fixed.

MMike
Guest
MMike

MikeL, 100 percent right. 3 times we had them at 3rd and 10 on that ovwetime drive, yet, Bob Sutton sends 3 guys and not 7, giving Brady plenty of time. Everybody wanted 20 million a year Eric Berry back, well, you got him, torch city on the most important plays of the game. What a joke and waste of money he is!! Same ole Reid, can’t win a game that matters! Oh, he’ll win you 10-12 games a year, but not games people will remember. Tell me how much home field advantage helped, the noise, craziness, nope…Brady had no… Read more »

JimH
Guest
JimH

Get back to greeting at WalMart

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Agree MMike. How you think you could never put any pressure on Tom Brady and win is beyond me. We might have gone undefeated this year with even an average defense.

MikeL
Guest
MikeL

Nothing will change for the Chiefs as long as Bob Sutton is the DC. If Andy still doesn’t get this, then he needs to go too. Otherwise, Mahomes will be the new Dan Marino.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Baseball season will be here before you know it. 😛

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Real shame because I think the Chiefs would have beat the Rams in the super bowl. Pretty obvious the refs were paid off. Belichek never ever loses – he’s a known cheater. Time and time again. What about the overturned call on the muffed NE punt? Total evidence of cheating. Oh and that ludicrous roughing the passer call on Brady???

Randy Keller
Guest
Randy Keller

Go Sooners! Back to Back to Back to Back!!!

texsa sux

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

You’re an idiot.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Weather looks pretty boring for the next couple of weeks. Would have liked to have had at least something on the horizon to lessen the blow of last nights coin flip loss. Ugh ….

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

I tend to disagree especially for central & eastern MO, two clipper systems are expected to come through late week one Thursday afternoon and another one Friday night and Saturday. Models showing anywhere from 1-5” between the two, would not be surprised to see an advisory for one of both of them, but location & strength of clippers are hard to pinpoint usually until you get it within 24 hours of the event. I picked up some decent precipitation back in December one week after the Dec 1st storm system that cycled through this past weekend so it appears these… Read more »

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Chiefs have a vengeance, just like 2014 Royals did. We will be back, and our patience will be rewarded.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I told my wife that last night. The look on Patrick’s face said it all. They will be back and better than before. That kid has tremendous leadership skills and with a little off season defense mending we’ll be unstoppable. My thought anyway.
Michael

matt
Guest
matt

Overtime in NFL needs to be like NBA the Gary is over when time has run out and Chiefs might have had a chance to when then after Patroits scored.

matt
Guest
matt

I meant when Game is over.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Whichever team had the lead for the majority of the game should get the ball first, imo.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Not one reason a tax payer should ever pay a penny for an NFL, NBA, or MLB stadium. Those owners make a few billion a year, MAKE THEM PAY FOR THIER OWN STADIUMS. Where else do we pay for a private business to build their facility?
I would like to go into a lucrative business and then have tax payer build my facilities, SIGN ME UP!!!!!

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Make Mexico Pay for them! LOL

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

You just made my day 🙂

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Mexico is paying for them indirectly via a newly negotiated trade deal. LoL…nobody thought Mexico would pay voluntarily or hand over a check ahead of time. LoL..surely you didn’t…did you? Really? Wow!

Real HumeDude
Guest
Real HumeDude

Sure, nobody expected that, unless you expected Trump to keep a promise, which surely you didn’t expect him to keep his word? Did you? you did!!!!Really!!! WOW!!!!

John
Guest
John

Its called a TIF

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Gary, noaa shows very dry weather next 14 days, do you see it that way as well. Anything coming down the LRC pike?

Jill
Guest
Jill

Gary – we share the same passions with weather and sports. I was bummed last night but am so proud of our Chiefs. They took what was supposed to be a so-so season and lit it up! Yeah, almost made the big game but sure have improved from so many disastrous years.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

The NFL is very corrupt. They r criminals. gangsters in suits. I wouldn’t b surprised one bit sky. The NFL claims they don’t won’t teams to relocate but then awards every team money(relocation fee) when they move. Makes sense doesn’t it?! They cover up concussions, domestic abuse, the owners want us to build them a stadium so they can get richer! It goes on and on yet we continue to watch and pay.

Skyspy
Guest
Skyspy

NFL>TV>ADVERTISERS=BILLIONS$$$ There’s a reason the teams that were not from either coast didn’t get the replay calls, did get the bs penalty calls or no calls, and subsequently lost their games. The fix is in, especially when it come to NE. Nobody in the NFL or big TV wants anybody from the middle of the country in the Super Bowl. Fewer people-lower ratings. Call me crazy but crazier things are going on than this. With this much money involved you have to at least consider the possibility.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

Ah yes, the National Fixed League, team Pro Wrestling more or less. Never did see the line image of Dee being offsides, probably lined up that way the whole game, seem flag came out late. But whatever, not an NFL fan by any stretch, do love some college ball though.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

they showed a replay where he was clearly lined up off sides

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

KC NWS tweeted out this morning that so far this has been the wettest water year (begins October 1st) on record.

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

I have a question about the second temperature map. Are the temperature changes always so close together outside of the plunge of arctic air?

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Never ever give Brady 2:00 on the clock. Great season though and fix the D and your fine.

Mark
Guest
Mark

You would think they would have learned that after nearly every loss ended the same way. Sutton’s defense isn’t going to stop anyone.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

YES, I could not understand for the life of me why they werent trying to burn some clock off on their last possession. I know you want to score fast normally….but to leave two minutes on the clock for Tom Brady with a defense that has shown little ability to stop him is just nuts.

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Especially since that’s how they lost the game in October.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Tough game, at least it wasn’t like my Bama squad and got blown out.

Gary, not sure how much you look at SST’s for the North Atlantic but do you, in your opinion, think this this years LRC has forced the NAO to stay more neutral?
Or is it other factors?