AFC Championship Game Weather Forecast

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Good morning bloggers,

Well, that was a bit deflating last night wasn’t it?  The band of snow set up, and I am sure many of you would agree that around 8:45 PM it was looking really good for a nice 2 or 3 inches of snow.  And, then while I was actually on Facebook Live showing the developments of the band of snow, the radar echoes around 15 minutes later pulsed down and never recovered.  It still did snow and just not enough to bring us a second big producing snowstorm in seven days.  Kansas City had a dusting to 2″ of snow, which was really what it was looking like.  I was hoping for a bit more organization.  What happened? The storm dove way down into Texas in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and it never closed off into an upper low.  So now, it is time to look ahead.

AFC Championship Game Forecast:

The New England Patriots will face the Kansas City Chiefs in a huge AFC Championship game at Arrowhead Stadium. This is the first AFC Championship game to be played in KC and the Chiefs are favored. The weather looks pretty decent as well:

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There is a chance it will be three to five degrees warmer than my prediction here.  The question after the game is over, is will it be a high overcast which would limit the viewing of the total lunar eclipse that begins at 8:36 PM Sunday night?  There is a band of clouds forecast to stream overhead, and I am hoping they will be thin.

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This map shows an increasing pressure gradient with a warm front south of KC.  This front will be developing in response to an upstream storm system that will produce snow just north of KC Tuesday.

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This map above shows the next storm tracking across Iowa into Wisconsin. This may produce a band of light snow or flurries in KC, and another cold blast.  Speaking of cold blasts, we have to continue to monitor the weather pattern closely for some blocking. I have been predicting blocking to develop by around the first week of February. Some of the models show this, and some do not.

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This is Sunny The Weather Dog as she is looking at the snowflakes last night.  We hope everyone has a great Saturday.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments on the Weather2020 blog.  Have a  great Saturday.

Gary

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AndrewDylanMr. PeteGarrettRodney Recent comment authors
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Andrew
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Andrew

Game day ! Let’s roll !
Looking forward to seeing the eclipse tonight.

Dylan
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Dylan

You ain’t kidding! There’s a slight wind that’ll cut right through you here at Grand Summit. Currently at a balmy 11 degrees above zero. By the way, anyone else still following this storm in thought enough to take a peak at radar like I am? Lol it has a legitimate “eye”. Looks like a circular dead zone for precip. Winds within that dead zone are near calm. It’s absolutely fascinating to see. It’s as obvious as can be to me! I think it’s cool to see this, and compare the similarities to radar images of hurricanes and tropical storms to… Read more »

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Cold as bal* out there tonight!

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Whoever said it was a powerhouse racing wast was spot on. Driving through it for 7 hours made it feel like a 2 day storm but IT WAS DANGEROUS. Some parts of interestates in Illionois and Norther Kentucky were just snow packed w 3-4 inches. I see poof lovers perspective cause doing that…absolutely dreadful. Cool experience though driving w a comma head and seeing the utter strength they can have

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Looking back in December I picked up. 0.12” of rain on Dec 7 so it appears this explains why some snow chances are showing up this coming Friday into Friday night & fits the LRC cycling pattern. It wasn’t a big rain producing system but with cold air firmly in place this Friday anything that falls will be all snow. If we see a similar qpf like in Dec would only be a 1-2” snow but something to watch as we go through the work week.

Rodney ( Ashland, MO)

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Are we expecting another storm Tuesday ?

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Wow this storm over here is absolutely so dangerous, so many drivers in I-57 and I-24, unexpected reasons taking us out of town
. We have been in same heavy heavy snow for 5 hours now all the way down. Craziness.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

It was a powerhouse of a storm when it raced east.
Extensive tornado damage in Wetumpka, AL.
In mid January !

Kaden
Guest
Kaden

We were forecasted to get that much

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Didn’t f00dl3 have some theory about some kind of temperature pattern switch thing in February?

KirksvilleDave
Guest
KirksvilleDave

Got about 5” in Kirksville. Have had about 20” this year. Already more than last years 18”, of which 10” fell in April! Glad we’re having snow in January!

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

100% whiteout w I57 westbound shutdown

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Even though it is bone chilling cold out there it is nice to finally see the sun !
Go Chiefs !

Dominic_De_Soto
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Dominic_De_Soto

About three-quarters of an inch here in De Soto. Just enough to cover the grass.

I’d say the biggest bust, or “poof”, was Kaden’s forecast.
Ha! I thought we were “in the 95th percentile” of at least 8-12″. What happened?

In all seriousness, when does LRC say the next storm is expected to affect us?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Kaden, in all likelihood, is another version of Julie. That or a HS freshman just looking for days off from school.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

This storm is INSANE! Visibility is awful, god awful. Huge huge flakes. Not optimal for driving whatsoever. Easy 2 inches per hour coming down

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

Thundersnow south of Farmington, MO being reported

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Hitting the snow hard out here in Illinois on the drive to South Carolina. Right through bootheel. All snow no rain, what could’ve been. LOL. I’ll let you know how this system looks down here.

MikeL
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MikeL

Got right at 3″ here in SW Topeka. Too bad the best part of the storm was after dark. On to the next….

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman

I had about 3.5” here in Stewartsville, MO. Difficult to measure, but it was definitely a bit over 3. That brings by season total up to 26”…nice to finally have a decent Winter again

NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

Just checked AO index forecast, finally a consensus to go negative. First I’ve seen in long time.
NAO is still not showing any signs of going negative.

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Now on to the next storm.
The Mahomes Storm !
Go Chiefs !

Roger
Guest
Roger

Wichita recorded 0.9 inches of snow last night. The local weather stations here hyped up this storm too. This is the first recorded snow this winter (since December 1st). It really has been a bummer. Another trace-1 inch to add to the scrapbook.

Jeffnks
Guest
Jeffnks

I live in the Riverside are in wichita. I had 1.23 inches of rain before the switch to snow. I had 1.5 inches of snow here. I am sure it was more but since it was so heavy and wet some of it melted.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

No way we go the next four weeks without some snow. We’re entering a colder stretch of weather. It’s not an artic outbreak by any means but it’s not a blast furnace either. Gary did mention a blocky pattern setting up for the first week of February. We shall see. In the mean time the remainder of January looks rather boring.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Looks great for driving and air travel…………….still think February will warm back up Greenland block or not.

Rodney
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Rodney

Morgan: I totally agree, colder air is expected to push in my late week with a high in Columbia on Friday of only 22 with a 40% snow chance Friday night with s low of 10 by according to the NWS. I think we will be near normal to below normal temps for the next few weeks with multiple snow chances.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Good thing the Chiefs are not playing here in Kansas City Monday the 28th given this blast of arctic air. This is the 12z EURO model from yesterday showing -20 degrees for KC!!!

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019011812/missouri/temperature-f/20190128-1200z.html

JimH
Guest
JimH

Sorry about the snow guys. Maybe next time. Making $$$$ today unlike most of the degenerates here who literally rub one out to snow

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I made money up this way because of the snow jim😘

JC Joe
Guest
JC Joe

The clouds are breaking up and the sun is peeking through for the first time in a week or more!
Only a half inch here, disappointing, but having the sunshine is great!

Go Chiefs!

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

Bust in the St Louis area, last night they had 2 to 4 inches of snow as a general forecast with the possibility of a narrow band of heavy snow or thunder snow……we are getting a few flurries and that is it.

Worst kind of storm….a little rain then turning colder and very windy with no snow.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think for the next month or so, at least until February 13th, our weather will warm up with several rain chances but unless we get blocking to have cold air fill in the northern / southern branch confluence, no snow.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Provided warm up / moderate this time of year may mean temps with highs 35-47 – not 43-58 like in December

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

This guy disagrees with you. I’m not saying you’re wrong or he’s right. Just another piece of info to take into account. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1926-january-2019-observations-and-discussion/?p=410439

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

We could be both write because as I stated if we have blocking fill in that gap between the northern branch and southern branch, it will infiltrate our air mass. But if all this hyped blocking does not happen, a SSW event won’t happen. And since when is a SSW event different than blocking – isn’t SSW a symptom of Blocking as the blocking causes the air (buzzword Polar Vortex) to push down here and set up shop.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

Yes and no
NAO would be upper latitude blocking, forcing systems to bottle up, in return may cause a dump of artic air south. Systems would still continue but may dive more to our SW then curl up towards GL region or spin back around.
AO neg would just dump artic air on us.
Both neg, could be quite the seen.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I am a snow lover for sure, however, after the whacking we took last weekend over here, I am fine with this dusting. With all the trees limbs that system took out and the power loss, it’s a storm I will never forget.

Como
Guest
Como

What happened to the arctic blast?? Is it a poof as well??

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Pretty much.

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

Got a heavy dusting here in south OP. Enough to turn the bare spots a nice hue of off-white. But with the leftover from last weekend, it still feels mostly snow covered around here. Based on my measurements of all snows so far this year, we’re at about 24 inches. We’ve had snows of 2 (Nov 8), 3 (Nov 12), 7 (Nov 25) and 12 (Jan 12) inches. Plus some traces in between, including last night. Not a bad year so far.

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

What do you mean he didn’t mention it? There is two graphics in today’s blog and he talks about bringing snow to our north with a band of light snow or flurries to KC.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Oh yeah, my bad…missed that.

Rich (east of Topeka)
Guest
Rich (east of Topeka)

Hard to tell for certain but I’d say around 2″ here, east of Topeka, south of Perry Lake. But the winds are incredible creating our normal massive snow drift around the propane tank, next to the now headless snowman we made last weekend. I think my son and I will have to give him a head sometime today. 🙂

someweatherdude
Guest
someweatherdude

I’ve never seen such consistency between models as I’m seeing for the storm Tuesday/Wednesday. They all have the low passing near KC with the precipitation to the north.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

That, of course, means that they’re all going to diverge wildly tomorrow. We know how this works!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Hey Gary, is the chance of Tuesday supposed to be anything consequential, or no? It’s only 3 days away and you didn’t mention it at all, so mabye the answer is no?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Sorry, “is the chance of Tuesday snow supposed to be anything consequential”

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

Long time follower here. But first time posting.
Just to put my 2 cents in on Gary’s comment about competitor.. Not very professional to call them stupid for scheduling extra coverage of what could have been more snow. Most outlets thought there would be more snow especially north. Including Gary. So if kshb heads had scheduled extra coverage of this storm, who would have been there. Who would have said no.
As turns out roads were slick due to flash freezing. A KDOT worker died on 169 this morning.

Mikeyc11@hotmail.com
Member
Mikeyc11@hotmail.com

I recorded 2” up here in Maryville with higher totals couple counties east of us. Go Chiefs! I am getting a little nervous about Brady though. I hope is luck has run out!
Michael

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

It enjoyed the snow last night…made everything white really fast and those huge flakes were very pretty. A little more quantity would have been nice, but I was happy. This has been an awesome winter so far…Poof Man must be in therapy for that. LoL

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

PAPA POOF PREDICTS A CHIEFS WIN TOMORROW AS WELL!

CHIEFS 38
PATRIOTS 28

Brittany
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Brittany

Tuesday storm kinda looks poofy too. Of course it wants to go north.

weatherjaded
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weatherjaded

Don’t doubt Kaden. He will tell you he got 8″ at his house last night…

Bsmike
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Bsmike

Kaden 8 inches was a bust too.

Jobu
Guest
Jobu

I still had 3″ on the ground from the previous storm. In my entire neighborhood no grass is visible. Maybe a inch last night.

Northland, inside the 435 loop.

As for as the 5 hours of coverage, even you predicted potentially a lot of snow, it’s better to have local news than the Today show.

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Well I said their wouldn’t be a foot of snow and I was right 🙂 but I’m just glad we have had snow this winter unlike other winters of recent.

Rodney’s Clockwork Angels
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Rodney’s Clockwork Angels

2 inches at best in Lawrence. Not a complete Poof, but was almost was one. When February comes around I’m afraid that we will get the granddaddy of all storms this winter.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

February 13 + 18. 13th rain, 18th snow? December 26+31…

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Re-posting this as it may have gotten lost being the last comment on the previous blog. I would, call this, in fact, a POOF. Not necessarily all on Gary – all local and national media sources – the Weather Channel, Accuweather, JL Blog, furry weather channel, all jumped on this bandwagon. Everyone got schooled. Max totals I heard of were around 4.5″ or so. I don’t know who all started the hype that this was going to be a blizzard, that snow ratios were going to be insane due to the cold air, and the talk about roof collapses because… Read more »

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Major POOF. Still say you need to start your own blog, foodie!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Good points from food and noted, but before starting his own blog, he did also say last night that the radar was looking really good for kc snow and things were lining up right. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and annoint him a meteorologist just yet.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Indeed. It fooled me as well. I mean the warning signs were there though – no more than 10 mins after seeing that the precip started banding out like the HRRR had been suggesting. Was just a tough storm in general – but a tough moderate storm not major storm. But when I said it was looking good on radar, that was for 3-4″ of snow in KC. Not a Major Winter Storm. I define a Major Winter Storm as 8″+ snow. But that’s just me. A Winter Storm is 5″+ to me – though the NWS defines it as… Read more »

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

HRRR really has been excellent once in its range. Even when I don’t like what it is saying.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Agreed. I guess that’s my bone with it lol – it’s absurd sometimes but ends up being pretty spot on.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Based on that data, plan on Feb 25th – 26th, and March 5th for potential storms?? I have highlighted my calendar.

Jack in Atchison
Guest
Jack in Atchison

Great post. I think this storm showed us that the nam is not invincible, and that just because it is showing more snow does not mean it will be right no matter how much we “want” it to be right. The radar echoes really did look to be setting up really nice around 6 and 7 last night, quite like what the nam was showing, so my confidence was high along with everyone else’s. I really thought Atchison would get 5-10 inches.. almost got in that range.. about 4, but then the banding did not sustain its strength and it… Read more »

KSUstudent
Guest
KSUstudent

I hear you, even though it wasn’t a major storm in the metro it still is a major storm in relation the rest of the country. Over two feet are expected in parts of Maine, with a snow track extending back west of Wyoming. I know we didn’t get much this round but looking at the big picture it was a major storm.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

2 inches if you’re generous. At least I’m highest in the metro for once. Next!

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

The POOF man strikes again!

POOF POOF POOF

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

HAHAH BOOO!!! You suck, Big Papa. I wanted snow!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Hope the Chiefs come through like you did, Papa! WELL DONE……………..keep it going until, say, May!

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Well done BPP!

What say you for the big game tomorrow?

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

All hails to BIG PAPA POOF!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Not really. You call Poof every single storm. Once in a while you’ll be correct. If I say one foot snow every time, I’ll be correct once in a great while. You’re accuracy is pretty low cause you say poof 100% of the time lol. Now. If you really had a genuine call of what you think would happen every storm, I’d give you props now, but not when your call is poof every time.

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

I measured 1.5 inches, now, on to the next

RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)
Guest
RickMcKC (I-29 & 64th)

Wow, I am only a couple of miles from you and I bet we got less than a half-inch. Last night when you and the others in this area were commenting about huge flakes, etc. I was getting nothing like that at my location.

BTW, I really enjoyed 99% of the commentary last night on what was happening where. Nice job people!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Northwest seems to have been the magic direction to travel. If the roads are un-iced later maybe I’ll try to drive to Atchison, someone reported 4+ inches up there last night.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Light dusting in PV that did not even cover all of the grass.