What Just Happened In Kansas City, And, What Is Next?

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Good morning bloggers,

A Major Winter Storm just blasted Kansas City with 4″ to 12″ of snow.  Yes, a few spots reached 1 foot of snow.   And, with temperatures near 32 degrees for the duration of the snow event, it was a wet heavy snow that became so heavy that trees came crashing down.  Some of the trees were pines that rarely ever have a problems.   Sunny The Weather Dog poses in front of this tree, and you can see a tree that is not really looking too normal, and if you look closely you can see the final dusting that came as the system spun by early Sunday morning.

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The Storm Time-Line:

5This satellite picture is from Friday night as the storm was maturing:

The LRC provided the insight for Weather2020 to predict this storm 45 days in advance. Then a month in advance W2020 picked out January 12th as the target date for a big storm. Then, after the Chiefs got the bye week and the #1 seed in the AFC, I came on the air every night from December 30th through the next week making these statements; 1)A storm will be targeting the Chiefs home game on January 12th, and 2) this is the blizzard part of the cycling weather pattern! And, then we were the first to make snowfall amounts (Oh, a couple of bloggers went for amounts weeks ago as many of you are doing quite well in forecasting using our top secret information). As the storm approached we upped the totals to 2-5″, then 4-8″ while our competitors apparently had much less predicted. Then the day of I finally pulled the trigger and went 5-10 inches, and it verified everywhere but the official recording station KCI. They reported 4.4″ for a seasonal total now of over 12″.

Here is how the storm played out on Friday into Saturday:

  • Friday morning:  Rain begins falling before noon, and a little surprising was the fact that sleet was mixing in already. An interesting early signal
  • Noon Friday – 1 PM Friday:  Rain changes completely over to snow and stays that way. With temperatures hovering between 33-34 there is little accumulation until later
  • 3 PM -8 PM:  Heavy snow develops near the rain/snow changeover line south of KC and 3 quick inches of snow falls south of KC and 2″ just northeast of the city near Excelsior Springs
  • 8 PM -10 PM:  Viewers tweet out how we blew the forecast because only 1 to 2 inches had fallen. I am on the air trying to explain that the storm just started
  • 10 PM – 7 AM:  It snows all night with 3″ to 7″ accumulating
  • 7 AM -10 AM:  The main upper level low and disturbance shows up on radar, and it started producing a heavy band of snow that became stationary extending from Arrowhead Stadium southwest to just northwest of Chanute, KS.  I found this on radar as you can see below and it was about an hour before this time, or around 7 AM, that we thought an additional few inches of snow would be possible. And, oh my did it happen. My snowfall total on the Plaza went from around 3.5″ to around 9″, or around 5.5″ of snow in four hours.

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That system ended up tracking just southeast of KC.   And, here we are on Monday morning, two days later, and none of it has melted yet. There have been many power outages, and we have had great snow for the kids to enjoy.

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It has been a very long time since KC had snow to make a snow tunnel, or snow igloo like this one. Very nicely done!

Okay, so where do we go from here?  The Kansas City Chiefs won a home game at Arrowhead Stadium.  The moment is too big for some teams and some players (Indianapolis Colts, Andrew Luck), and some players just come through (Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes).  They will be facing off against each other in a battle of the best QB ever to play in the NFL against the best QB in the NFL right now.   And, weather is going to be a factor.  Let’s look at the latest data.

This week’s weather:

There is a lead system ahead of the late week stronger storm system.  Take a look:

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This map above shows a surface cyclone centered one southwestern Missouri early Thursday.  There will be a chance of rain-sleet-snow as this system rapidly moves by.   There is an Arctic Air mass sitting up to the north, with temperatures dropping to 50 degrees below zero way up over Greenland and northern Canada.  This Arctic air has been sitting up there for a long time, and a surge to the south is finally about to happen.  So, we are issuing an Arctic Air Watch Later This Week!

The Setup for Friday Night-Saturday:

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There are still a lot of questions concerning the storm later in the week.  The good news for the AFC Championship game is that this storm will be long gone by Sunday.  The bad news is that it will be very cold for the game.  More on the game day forecast in just a second.  This map above shows the next storm developing with a stronger surface cyclone (low pressure area) centered near Guyman, OK.  An area of heavy snow is predicted to form from Nebraska to South Dakota.  This is the spot that had a blizzard in the last LRC cycle as KC had an inch of rain, a cold blast, and then just 0.3″ of snow on the back side. This time, it appears this system will track farther south:

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The track and strength of this storm are still being determined, and we are uncertain on snowfall amounts, and how cold it will get. This is targeting our area and we will learn more in the next 24 hours.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Snow flurries this morning.  Expect a cloudy sky with a few flurries.  High:  33°
  • Tuesday:  Cloudy early with some sun finally breaking out. High: 42°
  • Wednesday:  Increasing clouds and turning colder. High:  36°
  • Thursday’s storm:  Cloudy with a chance of rain-sleet-snow for a short period of time as a system zips by early in the day.  High: 37°
  • Friday:  Cloudy and breezy with rain likely developing during the day. The rain will change to snow Friday night.  High:  39°
  • Saturday:  Snow likely, possibly heavy early in the day.  It will be windy with blowing snow and crashing temperatures dropping into the teens.  Accumulations of snow are likely.
  • Sunday:  Becoming mostly sunny, cold, with the wind dying down.  Temperatures in the single digits to teens.
  • Sunday night for the game:  Dry and cold with light south winds. Temperatures between 5 and 12 degrees.

Temperatures Sunday morning:

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Look how cold it is forecast to get by Sunday morning.  That is 0° near KC.  We will know a lot more as we get closer to Friday.  Watch 41 Action News and we will keep you advised.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Here is the link to the blog and have a great day!

Gary

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Freezemiser
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Freezemiser

The ol’ weather blog is quiet…too quiet!

AlexPickman
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AlexPickman
robert h
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robert h

The track has consolidated in the latest models to some degree. It looks like some really impressive snowfall rates.

robert h
Guest
robert h

and wind….

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

FV3-GFS is on board with a big snowstorm

Jack
Guest
Jack

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2019011500&fh=120&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

With adjusted ratios… BUT I do wish this was what I was looking at on Thursday and not on Monday because this will change…

Jace
Guest
Jace

Holy 00Z GFS, Batman!

Jack
Guest
Jack

Anyone watch 10 p.m. news? I missed it; what did Gary say? Anything new?

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

he said that the storm looked stronger

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Not looking good at all for any snow melting before we get hammered by the next storm.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

It looks like a storm this weekend, and it may very well be a whopper and not change from the models currently, but it seems like more folks are more accepting of the models now that we just got blasted this last weekend. This last weekend storm wasn’t pegged down this far out, but it seems like more people have it down that it will happen this weekend..maybe because we just had a storm. You may be exactly right, but I wouldn’t trust it yet. Maybe I’m mistaking excitement for confidence????

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

I think everyone is so confident because of the set-up of the system? I keep hearing “classic set-up” being thrown around

Jack
Guest
Jack

I think you could be right here, but I think there is confidence because this has been in the models for the last few days, and the past cycle it produce a big snow storm in western Kansas and in Nebraska, the LRC tells us that this has the potential to be a whopper. But the nam should be out by tomorrow and gives a better idea of what could happen.

The 0z nam only goes out to 6 am Friday but it does she the storm most definitely digging. Can’t wait to see it tomorrow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2019011500&fh=84

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

yes, it will be very interesting to see what it looks like tomorrow. I expect the NAM to jump on board

Terry
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Terry

comment image GFS 00z wow This looks like a good ole fashioned blizzard here fri/sat

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

If that verifies it looks to be a whopper

Jcling64056
Guest
Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

ooohhh doggie……

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

yes!

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

I’m not a fan of the GFS but the 00z run could convert me…

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

new 00z GFS hammers the metro

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary:

My gosh…we are talking about the models and the storm this weekend when tomorrow itself looks to be a tough forecast. The GFS and NAM have some big differences for tomorrow…the GFS actually clears us out for a good part of the day with some clouds creeping back in the afternoon where as the NAM has clouds socked in all day. And Wichita…the NAM has a temperature of 34 at 21Z tomorrow….the GFS has a temperature of 50 at 21Z tomorrow…..some pretty big differences between these two models for tomorrow.

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Anyone have a link to the 0Z NAM?

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Well….the 0Z NAM just put a clown suit on me LOL…which is nice….so I figure I go that going for me!! Keeps the clouds here all day tomorrow.

My limb is kind of like the limb that downed our power line Saturday….Crack and Crash!!!!

Still think it will be interesting to see just how tomorrow does play out regarding the sun….

Have great evenign everyone….thanks for the kind words above!!!

Bill in Washington Creek Valley in Lawrence

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Independence. Should not be the first location to warm up, and the temperature hasn’t risen. Maybe its condensation from the higher humidity.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Went outside just now and for the first time today, there is water dripping from the icicles all around the roof. The icicles were there earlier but they were not dripping. It feels a little bit different outside like a hint of milder air. Here’s hoping for warmer winds tomorrow.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Blue, what city are you in?

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

What are the probabilities of seeing blizzard warnings issued with this system in NW or across central MO. Local forecasters in Columbia saying we could see 30-35 mph winds.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20190121-0000z.html
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=eus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011418&fh=138
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=eus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011412&fh=144

To reiterate the point ealier about models (not including NAM which has been best by far this season with its european partner coming in second) EURO shows 8-12 inches here for metro. FV3 shows bullseye hitting KC with the line splitting Platte County again, southern getting 7-9, northern getting 3-5. And canadian showing not really anything out of this world for all of MO however heaviest tracking south towards the bootheel. All potential tracks right now. Looks like the question of poof is out of the realm at this point, however track is way up in air.

Matt
Guest
Matt

We will get more Snow hopefully not like what happens on East Coast and get up to 30 inches and no chance for highs to get up to 70 anytime at moment before Groundhog Day.

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

Bill,

That’s not exactly crawling out on that proverbial limb you seem to hang from. We have had exactly 2 3″+ snowstorms in almost five years. Anyone that looks at the odds and knows nothing about the LRC would say the same thing.
And since you are just a “hobbyist” and we are all here for fun, no one is going to make you eat crow, or care if you look like a fool, or any other idiom that you use.
Your opinion, simply stated, no matter how “humble” it is, would really suffice.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Good evening to you sir!! A random observation from Lawrence this evening….we now have a southwest wind blowing around 10MPH. I would respectfully argue that this will help mix this low cloud deck out of here over the next 12-14 hours and we do see some decent sun tomorrow. If we do see decent sun then 42 degreees is very doable if not higher and we could have quite the snow melt off tomorrow. Regarding Friday/Saturday I still personally just can’t get on board with a big snow….I just don’t see it all coming together. I have always been… Read more »

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

bill,

If I remember right during the the last cycle we had a very wet system(over1″ of liquid precip I believe). I just think based on that, this will be a BIG time snowstorm. given the high snow ratios and strength of the storm. just my opinion though. Always good to hear from you Bill

Jack
Guest
Jack

Bill, weren’t you a doubter on the last storm? It sure did pan out for big snow totals. I personally can’t get a huge feel on the storm until I see the NAM tomorrow.

Aaron
Guest
Aaron

always enjoy the “bill from lawrence” opinions. Seems to make sense to me, and it written very respectfully. Keep it going bill!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

this rather surprising considering this is the one storm that everyone seems to be forecasting way earlier than most storms due to it’s almost “inevitability”.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Sun tomorrow would be awesome! Even a hours worth.

Josh
Guest
Josh

Here’s a better question for anyone. When was the last time we saw the sun? Was it last Thursday or was it longer than that. I can’t remember lol…

Let It Snow 88
Guest
Let It Snow 88

We need more info Gary….😄
Will we get close to another foot of snow in the metro?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Wont us being colder due to snow pack shift the track of heaviest precipitation further south?

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

I just have this feeling the models are not taking the effect of this snowpack on temperatures at the onset correctly. If we do not see sun tomorrow and create signficant melt– we could be facing major potential issues this weekend. Also how much of this snow would exacerbate a freezing scenario Wed/Thurs? Re-frozen melted snow + Freezing rain?

Clint
Guest
Clint

I would think so. The ICON may have the best handle at this time.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Gary showed a snow totals map with no specific totals but put the words “major accumulations” around kc and north and “moderate accumulations” to our southwest. Looking interesting for this weekend….

Matt
Guest
Matt

Weather Channel Tom N. said/showed on Weather Underground tonight Freezing Rain on Wednesday.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

yeah, but Gary said he’s not expecting Wednesday to be very significant accumulation wise

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056
Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Is there anyone on here who knows trees very well? I have a tall pine near the rear of my property that has quite a bit of snow stuck on top of it. Do pines handle snow weight very well? I’ve never seen it with snow stuck to it like this before – a bit scary looking.

Adam
Guest
Adam

You could try bumping the trunk…but you could get a branch or snow on your head. Pines are softer wood so that my tend to bend better under weight.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

new FV3-GFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=eus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011418&fh=204

this is at a 10-1 ratio…..ratios will be higher so add 5 or more inches to that

Jack
Guest
Jack

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2019011418&fh=132

Latest FV3 has a very wet storm, but not all of this is snow. If it was all snow it would easily be 5-10 inches with 12+ to our north.

Athan
Guest
Athan

I am not a mail carrier but, if you want to help them, expecially with all this snow. Make a path between your mailbox and your next door neighbor’s mailbox. That is if you have your mailbox at your front door. Also make sure and put down ice melt towards the path of your mailbox. I’ve known many mail carriers who have sprained or broken body parts because people are inconsiderate and don’t maintain their property. That even goes for delivery couriers since there’s more of that going on these days.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Good call. If you still have limbs in your road try to pull them off the road too. I saw so many older people trying to back up and turn around yesterday while people in trucks were just driving over the medium sized ones. If you’re able bodied try doing something for your little part of the community if it’s safe to.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

NWS discusion

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Focus then turns to the system to impact the area Friday and into Saturday. The GFS has slowed and come into a better agreement with the ECMWF and GEM. There are still differences and therefore any change in timing and track will affect precipitation types for part of the area and snow for the rest of the area. The current model solutions with the track of the synoptic features would favor an area of heavy snowfall across parts of north central, northeast and east central Kansas. Also thermal fields at this time would suggest that there will likely be a… Read more »

weatherjaded
Guest
weatherjaded

With the snow cover, aren’t thermals bound to be wrong at this point?

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Thermals are iffy at the onset though. For now.

craig
Guest
craig

Re those thermal profiles…I wonder how well the GFS picks up and takes into account the new snowpack? Not much will melt before Friday.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

latest GFS has 1-1.25″ of liquid precip put that together with high snow ratios

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_024h&rh=2019011418&fh=126&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Thermals are iffy at the onset though. For now.

A1hoops
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A1hoops

The latest GFS really intensifies the low on top of us. Will be interesting what the NAM starts showing tomorrow

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

Just found out sound travels farther in colder temps. I say we try to break the sound record again just like the last time the Patriots were in town.

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

This next storm if it mimics the one from the last pyscho will swing through most of Kansas quickly, except the northeast. I can see us getting a quick shot of 1-2″ west/northwest of Abilene, then really ramping up as it moves east of there. I remember last time being surprised by how much rain we received the last time it came through, I suspect there will be less moisture to work with especially since we’ll have a system come through 36 hours before.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

there will be plenty of moisture to work with, the storm will be feeding on the Gulf of Mexico

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

I see there are two lows, we usually call the first one a lead disturbance. I hear terms like double barrel low and what not, is that what we have here or is there another met term that would describe the set up more accurately ?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I doubt it because they already know who it is and nothing is done about it. I know there was talk of legal ramifications last week. I hope this to be true. It’s embarrassing that an adult would act like this.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

It’s really just sad and pathetic…and it’s obsessive behavior

Wesley
Guest
Wesley

I don’t understand why we can’t up vote/down vote comments. Reddit style.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Gary/tech people Would it be possible to put a flag/report button on by the comment section? So we could all help w/ moderation

Matt
Guest
Matt

So better stock up on Groceries/Batteries or go visit a friend where it’s warmer and can’t move Chief Game to New England maybe to where Super Bowl is been played Atlanta because warmer their.

John
Guest
John

They will not move the game. That is almost as bad as Kurt Warner’s suggestion the other day before the game when he said all playoff games should be played in domes or warm climates. No point in a regular season anymore, if there is no incentive to win games and have the best record, if there is no home-field advantage.

Jason
Guest
Jason

Couple years ago they played when it was 1 degree. Game isn’t being moved

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

If this storm tracks south of KC and is strong as it has the potential to be, we are in for an epic snowstorm here

Jason
Guest
Jason

I sure hope some of this changes. I don’t think we are going to have any melting of snow. Or, very little. Freezing rain plus more snow and winds will spell a huge disaster for power lines and trees. Walk me off the cliff Gary.

TC
Guest
TC

I feel like we are overlooking this Thursday morning. The newest NAM has pink on and off from Wednesday morning-Thursday morning. Thursday morning and even Wednesday evening rush hours could be a mess. Any thoughts on this? I haven’t done any in depth look at temps, but it sure looks to the layman this could be a problem.

Becca
Guest
Becca

The EURO is also showing this. Looks like KC May be right on the line. Hopefully not. Thursday could be a mess and we really need some melting for these trees in south Overland Park.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/significant-weather/20190117-0700z.html

Blue Flash
Guest
Blue Flash

Any rain we get at temperatures barely above freezing will not melt the snow, but will just fuse with it and increase the weight on trees and roofs. You may want to consider raking some of the snow off your house and relieving some of the burden. It won’t be possible to do so after it has turned to slush. Shake off the lower branches of the trees, it might just make the difference.

Becca
Guest
Becca

We have done raking on lower branches. However, our bigger trees are of more concern. There are several large trees that have split in half or completely bent over. It is sad in south Overland Park.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Same deal in Prairie Village – the snow is so high up you can’t clear it off. Top heavy. Need melting quick!

Fred
Guest
Fred

Interesting to read multiple weather pages today, including this one, about the upcoming weather this weekend. While everyone is quick to note that the track will change and the intensity will change over the next couple of days…it has the attention of everyone…including NWS…who is often slow on picking up on possible storms systems (case in point, this last one).

Definitely going to be a fun one to keep an eye on. I would like to say the consistency is pretty good this far out, though.

Forever Green
Guest

Anybody know where I can go find official snowfall totals for individual cities such as Raymore, Lee’s Summit & Blue Springs? I know it is different one mile to the next but I’m a snow contractor and when my guys don’t measure each individual property I need a generalization to calculate a multiple. When you charge 50% more for every 2″ above 4″ the term “White Gold” comes into play.

Becca
Guest
Becca

The EURO is showing this weekends event starting as mainly rain, then a mix, and then snow. This would be consistent with what happened last time. However, we will probably get a bit more snow this time as the cold air pushes in faster. I really hope we do get some rain to help melt this snow. There are so many trees down, especially big trees. I would hate to have all of this snow still on the trees when the winds pick up this weekend.