AFC Championship and Low Clouds

Good Sunday bloggers,

Saturday was quite a day as we had a band of snow come up from the south and sit along and east of I-35 during the mid morning to mid afternoon. It dropped an additional 2″-5″ of snow and this doubled the power outages as trees and power lines could not hold the extra weight of the heavy, wet snow.

And, also, the Chiefs had their first home playoff win since 1994 and are headed to the AFC Championship game. This will be played in KC for the first time ever and weather is going to be a factor. We will look at that below.

Unofficially, this was the biggest snowstorm in KC since February 2014 as many locations received around 10″ of snow. However, at KCI, only 4.4″ fell which did not exceed the 5.8″ from November 25th.

SNOW TOTALS:

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Even though KCI was one of the lowest snow totals, it did bring our seasons total to 12.6″. This is the first time we have exceeded 10″ of snow in a winter since 2014-2015.

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What is next?  Today through Thursday the weather will be calm, but we will be dealing with low clouds issues. The data wants to clear the clouds Monday. That is not going to be easy to do. If there is a day where the sun could come out it would be Tuesday as we see more of a southwest wind. A weak cold front slips in Wednesday, and so low clouds will likely return at that time.

You can see all of the low clouds in the middle of the USA. There is not going to be much wind this week and this will not increase the chance of moving these clouds out. Also, if it clears, there is now so much snow cover, that fog could form. So, the bottom line is that today through Thursday will see lots of clouds with highs mostly 30-35 and lows 25-30. Tuesday has the best day to see some sun.

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Now, to the weather situation for the next Chiefs game, which happens to be for the AFC Championship!

While we are dealing with cloud issues this week, a new series of Pacific storm systems will be lining up. Also, Arctic air that has been sitting in Canada for a few weeks will be getting ready to blast south. We have not had an Arctic blast this season and even in the tame winters you get a blast of Arctic air. What does this mean for next weekend?

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FRIDAY-SATURDAY: The LRC suggests a decent storm system will be in the region and track to the north of KC. This would mean the heaviest snow stays north. Now, this is January and we have Arctic air pouring south while this storm is moving by. So, the track could shift farther south. We will need to watch this closely. The timing seems to be pretty certain, so this puts the snow chance a day before the big game as opposed to the day of the big game like yesterday.

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AFC CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY AM: Regardless of the track of the storm, the Arctic air will be pouring in. So, by Sunday morning lows will be around zero with wind chill values possibly as low as -20°!

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AFC CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY PM/NIGHT: The kickoff time is 5:40 PM. It looks like temperatures will be in the teens with south winds increasing. So, the south winds would bring in warmer air which means temperatures during the game would stay in the teens. That is still cold and with the wind at 10-20 mph that would bring wind chill values during tailgating and the game to around zero. So, this time the chance of snow is low, and the chance of very cold air is rather high.

We will follow this all week and update this next series of weather and sports convergence.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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Kurt
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Kurt

Too far south on this run, shift north please

Bsmike
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Bsmike

Gfs saying 5-7 inches for Saturday storm.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

The first system that needs to be watched is the one on Thursday. Models indicate what could be a freezing rain event and the timing is the morning rush hour.

Kurt
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Kurt

Hopefully we can get one to track perfectly for St Joseph and KCI, even out the discrepancies in snow totals please Mother Nature. However one a pattern sets up hard to break it for some reason. Would be nice to see a one foot snowstorm again up here, it’s been many many years, overa decade I think.

Nick
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Nick

As for the next possible storm I think the interesting thing to watch will be, that it (seems) that we are setting up for having a cold cycle, warm cycle, cold cycle type LRC, last time through, the blizzard part of the pattern showed up near the end of the “cold phase” and then the rest of the bigger storms so far this winter were in the warm phase cycle and were big rain storms with high winds, now the blizzard part of the cycle returned at the end of this warm cycle but was still cold enough to be… Read more »

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Hopefully some of this snow will melt off the trees before the next system shows up.

someweatherdude
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someweatherdude

The difference in snowfall totals is crazy. I measured 12 – 12.5 inches at our house near 151st and Antioch (several measurements) Given the other amounts I’ve been seeing reported, I thought maybe I was doing something wrong. But then I talked to a neighbor about 1/2 a mile away who said they measured about 13 inches. So I think my measurements are sound. It’s rare that I’m in the right place for snow. I lucked out this time. The KCI total this year may end up being very unrepresentative of the winter some of us nearby had.

Justme
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Justme

I’m at 159th and nall and had close to 13 as well!! I couldn’t believe it

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Just as it was over the summer when KCI seemed to somehow be the only place any storms ever hit.

Supercell
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Supercell

You measured correctly. I’m at 165th and Quivira and measured 12.5 – 13” at several locations. This area got hammered. Very easy to see the difference just driving around town. Far south OP looks like Summit County in Colorado. Biggest difference is we had over 4” Friday before snow even began accumulating around the plaza area. Very interesting note: Our total was several inches higher than most of the city after the November blizzard. Almost exact same heavy band developed during this event as November. Gary- you should take a drive down to your old neighborhood and maybe head a… Read more »

Anonymous
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Anonymous

KCMO schools just clossed hoping Olathe closses

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

No more of the heavy wet stuff please. It’s hard on the bushes and trees.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Oh, this one won’t be. Look at the temperatures.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

KCMO schools are clossed kind of hoping Olathe closes to

Jason
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Jason

Models will flip flop until Thursday before we actually have an idea where this will end up. Talk about frustrating. I love snow, but I’m out on a blizzard with a foot of snow and hundreds of thousands without power. Hard pass. Give me 6 inches of light snow and light winds any day 😂

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Mr fiffles, how long have u been part of this blog? Just curious

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Hes the same troll who uses several names. I find a useful tactic sometimes to be when you see a name that you know is a troll, just skip its comment…dont even read it. If you can do that, its like it doesnt even exist.

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056
Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol….how many times will the models change in the next five days?

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056

Gerard said on the weather this evening that indications are that this next storm could be even bigger then the one we just had

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

He did. I saw that too. However, about 6 days out before this last system he said it looked sunny and I think low 40’s for Chiefs game that we just had. It was just before a storm started showing up on the models. So, will we have the inverse? Storm showing up now and 6 days later there isn’t one, compared to no storm 6 days out and a whopper of a storm?????

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Awesome!

Bsmike
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Bsmike

Fiffs the only troll I feed is the MODELS 🥶

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

😂🤣😂🤣😂

Bsmike
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Bsmike

Stl you now where I’m coming from🥶

Bsmike
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Bsmike

*Know

Josh
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Josh

What year’s winter was it where we had back to back 10″ snows? It was either 2009-2010 or 2010-2011, actually wasn’t that bad IMO. I think this is pretty, I mean it’s a pain in the ass, but think about it, the past 3 to 4 winters around here have spoiled us!

Curtis
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Curtis

First year we moved in to our house. It was 2012-13. That winter made me eternally hate shoveling snow.

Suzq3456
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Suzq3456

Someone was asking about Gladstone, I’m just outside (south) a couple blocks from there and I measured 9 1/2 “ in several spots in my backyard. 64116.

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056

and it looks like the FV3-GFS has come further south also

Bsmike
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Bsmike

With up to 10in already on the ground won’t the temp be even colder with snow pack and arctic 🥶 front.

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056

yes, that would have an impact on temps

blue flash
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blue flash

So we went from zero inches to 13 inches from one GFS model run to the next. Hope to God this doesn’t happen, there will be roof collapses with 2 feet of snow depth.

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056
Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

This time high winds, not the heavy, wet snow

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056
Bsmike
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Bsmike

How much are the models saying?

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056

looks like quite a bit at the moment

Steve A
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Steve A

Does anyone have a snow total for the gladstone mo area . 64119 . thank you

Steve
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Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Joe L. is thinking we have a great chance at getting a snow storm next week.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

We finally have power back in Prairie Village. Hopefully it will stay on!

2Doghouse
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2Doghouse

I think Jeff means no snow during the game on Sunday. He isn’t referrring to Friday and Saturday.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Right…it took me a second to see that when I was reading it, but that is what he was talking about…snow chances during the Sunday game

Jason
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Jason

Always enjoy your input Bill. As you know, I’m close to you (bit south I think) and I measured close to 6″ in about 4 different spots. If we do end up with snow next weekend, I sure hope it’s lighter, and not windy. All KC area needs is more power outages. My wife had to go in and work all day today to try and help report outages and keep track of everything on the computer side. Messy deal

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Gary and Jeff: Happy wintry Sunday to both of you!! Hope you are both having a great Sunday so far and also everyone on this wonderful Blog!!! Just a few random thoughts on this typical winter day for the 39th Parallel. As always, just the thoughts of a hobbyist on a good day so for sure many will be off base and many will disagree….which is a good thing…keep the conversation lively!!! First off the November 25th blizzard round 2. I do think this is round 2 and know many disagree but based on my own interpretation this is round… Read more »

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

I bet there is a strong possibility for some school closings tomorrow. Schools that have rural roads and the melting/re-freezing could be the reason. Also, wouldn’t count out KCMO schools, because the city streets seem to always be a mess after a storm like this.

WeathermanKumke
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WeathermanKumke

I’d be a moderator for the blog if Gary needs one lol.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Looks like Patriots will be coming to town next weekend boys!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Bring it on – sick of the Chargers.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Should be a great game

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Anyone check 12z euro?

Garrett
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Garrett

Yep still holding strong on those totals

Terry
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Terry

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20190121-0000z.html This is the European model for Friday/Saturday/Sunday LRCfan1

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Thank you wowser!

Bob H
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Bob H

Do you think school closing are posible tomorow the roads are still pretty rough in OP

Mr. Fiffels
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Mr. Fiffels

I bet no, just because all of the main roads are plowed and treated to pavement and OP streets website has all residential cleared by this evening.

https://www2.opkansas.org/maps-and-stats/winter-storm/

That’s just OP, so I would guess that Blue Valley, Aquinas and Shawnee Mission will all be open tomorrow.

John
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John

I just don’t see how KCI only got 4.5″ when in every direction every report is in the 7-10″ range.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Anti-snow bubble centered on me. I’ve lived all over the country. It follows me around. Somewhere else always gets the highest totals, never where I am.

John
Guest
John

Must be, I just thought it was strange that there was such a localized area that got half the snow that everyone else in that area got.

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

I live in south OP where I received somewhere around 10 or 11 inches. Just drove a friend to airport and clearly you can tell there is less snow. The “less” snow starts well before that (compared to what parts of the south side received) driving up 635 you can tell before you get to I-70 there is less and even less by time you get to KCI. It does seem to mirror what some bloggers were saying so seems very legit.

John
Guest
John

The NW side of the city never really got into that heavy band of snow yesterday, so that would explain the large gradient. Received 9.6″ of snow at 169 and 152 highways. Most occurred in that heavy snow band yesterday morning and afternoon. Tree branches down everywhere, but luckily never lost power.

Adam
Guest
Adam

I’m all for a pay blog. Julie and company can send themselves trolling messages or pay and then get banned when yhey do it here.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

doesnt change anything, that particular troll was on here when it was a pay blog too.

Adam
Guest
Adam

Well, there are ways to control it. It would require a 24/7 staffed moderator or three. But that’s an expense.

DaveC
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DaveC

This would be easy to control, there are a few people on here who are regulars & trusted that could probably volunteer to moderate the forum.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Gary,
New looks on the blog are awesome! Didn’t you mention that you will be changing it to a pay blog in a few weeks? Thought I read that somewhere. Thanks and have a great Sunday.
Michael

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

If this were ture (idk if it is) but likely cause hes tried of time wasters on here. Many bloggers, vloggers, etc, nowadays switch to protect the serious audience

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

Never mind my comment, I read the blog wrong

Garrett
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Garrett

Is this cold air situation one of those “literally too cold to snow” situations?

Freezemiser
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Freezemiser

Oh…second!

I’m rooting for the Chiefs and another shot of snow. The super cold temps…not so much.

Freezemiser
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Freezemiser

Or third LOL

Terry
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Terry

comment image GFS 06z This Must be what you’re talking about is track and just South and plenty of time to change on model runs

WxAmateur
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WxAmateur

First