Winter Storm Not Quite Over

Good Saturday bloggers,

The snowstorm has occurred almost exactly as we had forecast with 5″-9″ widespread. Some locations will see 10″ of snow by the time its over.

Here are the snow totals as of 6-8 AM:

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4 2 3

Central and eastern Missouri have seen 10-15″ of snow!

The main  upper low is trekking across northeast Oklahoma. This will put the comma head into the KC area, especially along and east of I-35. After 12 PM, the accumulating snow will be over with light to very light snow and flurries lingering.

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Here is a map for 10 AM today. You can see some nice snow will be occurring along and east of I-35 with temperatures just below freezing. So, any surfaces that are wet to slushy could become covered again. Road conditions are wet to slushy anyway and anything untreated is quite slick.

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SATURDAY 3 PM: The snow will become scattered and less intense. So, if you are headed to the game watch for slick spots and light to very light snow and flurries will likely be falling during the game. Temperatures will be around 32.

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SATURDAY 8 PM: The main snow will be over with flurries around. Temperatures will be 30°-32° so refreezing is possible. Oh yea, hopefully we will be in good moods after a Chiefs victory. Sunday will stay cloudy with flurries. Lows will be in the upper 20s with highs 30°-32°. So, slick spots will be likely.

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How much more snow will fall? If you are headed east after the game, keep in mind a new 4″-8″ will occur from around St. Louis to Cincinnati through the day, ending later tonight and Sunday morning.

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A new 2″-4″ will occur across central and eastern Missouri on top of the 10″-15″ that is already on the ground! The snow will end later tonight in those locations.

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In our area a new 1″-2″ is likely, especially along and east of I-35. A dusting to 1″ is likely to the west. The accumulating snow will be over around here by noon.

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Monday through Thursday will see lots of clouds and there could be dense fog issues. We will have more on this tomorrow and the next winter storm at the end of next week.

Have a great weekend and

GO CHIEFS!

Jeff Penner

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f00dl3
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f00dl3

How much snow will melt with this being such a wet snow, lows barely below freezing and highs 35-45 this week? I don’t see how KCI will still have 1″ by Friday, if they only got 4-5″

Garrett
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Garrett

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20190121-0000z.html

Another thing I’ve noticed this season, is that the euro seems to be the model, catching, and sticking 5 days out. Here’s the most recent euro model for next weekend. This is the third model in the last 2 days that has trended over 10 inches. I look This would be insane. Biggest in my lifetime if these totals come to fruition on these models. I know I’m breaking rules by getting excited so early, but this winter seems to be okay to do that.

Mr. Fiffels
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Mr. Fiffels

One more observation for next weekend’s storm: With the amount of snowpack already on the ground and more to come Friday-Saturday, temps are going to be lower than progged. I would expect morning lows Sun-Tues to be below zero. Potentially -10. Dayrime highs Sun and Mon may be only 0-5 above at best. Prepare for very cold Chiefs game!! Arctic blast looks inpressive. This will be the first real cold and first real wind we have dealt with this season. Weakened trees will be a problem. If snow and wind come at the same time, the November “blizzard” will be… Read more »

Mr. Fiffels
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Mr. Fiffels

Completely agree foodl3. Plus, the totals in south Johnson County around Stanley were higher than 12 inches. Closer to 15.

A 40 degree high would be great at some point in the next few days as it would get all of the snow off of trees and powerlines. Won’t do much to what has fallen, but will still help.

Black ice will be a problem now for several weeks on any night that gets below freezing.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

What if yesterday’s storm wasn’t the blizzard? I mean, a piece of energy maximizing near St. Louis, an all day melting snow, follpwed by a accjmulating overnight snow… sounds more like the 3 features that moved through over a week timeframe ejected together, with the three part storm the week before the blizzard. If so, this next storm will be historic.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

did a lot of st louis’s snow melt?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

November 8 -> January 12 = 65.

October 6 + 65 = December 10. No precipitation whatsoever around that time. This should disprove that theory.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I know it doesn’t make sense. The initial thought I had was the LRC was the late 30s. But then it started showing signs of the low 50s. But then Gary said this last storm was the blizzard, which would make it the mid 40s? Seems we can’t pin it down and or prove the pinning.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

New blog looks great Gary, much nicer, and much more aesthetically pleasing than any others around here. Good idea considering your audience is growing year by year.

Garrett
Guest
Garrett

And as a four year studier of digital marketing, and finance, its great to see your blog go from a place of education, to a place of education, and commerce. Been involved in many blogs doing this as digital becomes the landscape for businesses around the world. Hope you like the result Gary! Maintenance on these things can be long, and tedious, worth it usually though

Jason
Guest
Jason

There is a point for me. Gary shows temps reaching close to 40 later this week, so hopefully we can get some melting going on. I love snow, but not when it come with mass power outages.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

I expect this amount of snow will keep us close to freezing for the entire week, so not much melting by the time the next storm arrives. Forecasts are always too optimistic on temperatures after a storm like this. Then next weekend’s storm….is there a point where the snow lovers say enough is enough? Maybe if you live in a condo, stay inside for a week and don’t have to deal with the consequences….but power outages, downed trees, dangerous roads….where is the thrill in that?

Jason
Guest
Jason

If next weekend ends up verifying, I sure hope it’s not this wet heavy snow or the power outages will be exponentially worse. Was bad enough today.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

Jason- next weekend’s snow should be the lighter weight snow. Temperatures will be near 20 on Saturday and when the storm starts on Friday, they will be dropping as an arctic blast moves in. Wind could be a big factor as well.

Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Ended up with 8 inches just south of St Joseph after the snow showers this evening. Season total is 24 inches wow! If next weekend materializes, wow thank goodness it’s a 3 day weekend. Lost an 8 inch diameter branch on the pine tree, kept owner (knock on wood). Really turning into a very active winter, here last Saturday I was airing out the house lol!

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image FV3 GFS 00z For next Friday/Saturday Now this looks like a good blizzard or snow storm

Fred Nolan
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Fred Nolan

That sucks Pete. Try and stay warm.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

It’s still snowing here in PV and still no power!

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Fv3gfs watch out next weekend!

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056
Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Indeed!

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Center of it right over me!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Look at the forecast temperatures…

Now think Kuchera…

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_acc&rh=2019011300&fh=174&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

That would break March 1912’s record for largest single snowstorm ever. Probably make us at least close to the snowiest month ever as well (which is March 1912, 41.2 inches monthly total).

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

New updated stylish blog. Looks good.

Grand total of 10.5 inches in Olathe off 119th and K-7. Did much better than expected.

Was at the game and sat in 325. So glad to see the playoff curse gone.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

That sucks kcI only got 4.5

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Been snowing lightly for 2+ hours near st lukes north

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

I’m a bit southwest of you. It never stopped here. It’s literally been snowing without stopping for almost 33 hours now.

Of course, all that’s stuck since this morning is a heavy dusting on shoveled areas of pavement. Seems like this storm went from tiny accumulation to catching up in a big way and then back to tiny accumulation.

Bpick
Guest
Bpick

8 inches in Gardner.

Jim
Guest
Jim

Solid 6.5” after the Chief’s game.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Still coming down in Parkville!

Como
Guest
Como

We’re over 16” in Columbia.

John
Guest
John

I thought it was almost done snowing when it was just flurries, but snow is accumulating on roadway again.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

Measured 11″ in west central Independence. We lost a major branch on our Bradford Pear.

Grambo624
Guest
Grambo624

I measured 10 inches here in downtown Lee’s Summit.

TerryPolo
Guest
TerryPolo

Ended up just shy of 14 inches inz Polo making it our biggest storm in forever. Its been a fun ride with this storm

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

I’m ready to start talking about next weekend’s storm!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Hows it looking on the models?

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

That’s what I’d like to know:)

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Winter belongs to you brother…arctic blast…blizzard…make it happen. I won’t stand in your way.

Jace
Guest
Jace

What’s the KC season total now?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Snow is still coming down lightly in Parkville. As far as I can tell, it’s been snowing almost 100% continuously for over 30 hours now here. (I saw the rain finally change to snow at 1:10pm on the 11th).

Jason
Guest
Jason

Props on the forecast Gary. Nailed it.

Dylan
Guest
Dylan

I didnt have a ruler with me on my hike but I had my wallet. Measured about an inch more than 3 credit cards deep here at Grand Summit Golf course in Grandview, Mo. I saw lots of pear trees and white pines struggling under the weight.

Go chiefs!

Great job with the forecast! What a joyride it has been! I watched snowflakes fall from about 9:00am Friday until 5:30pm tonight. Just awesome! And now, it even looks like another band might move through before this thing moves out completely. Best snow storm so far this year! Haha

Mr. Fiffels
Guest
Mr. Fiffels

Chiefs stopped the run and won. Defense showed up;. Now they have to do it again.

I’m not going to report a total at 143rd & Antioch because none of you disciples will believe it. I’ll send it to Gary and see if he posts it.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

send it with a photo of a ruler in the snow

Josh
Guest
Josh

Ended up with 10″ here at the Grandview Triangle. NWS was saying the highest totals for their CWA was out in Cooper county where they had reports of 12″. Did have a couple reports in Overland Park of 11.5″ too.

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

Stewartsville, MO here..

November Blizzard I had 8” of snow
This Storm I picked up yet again, 8” on the dot

Season total now up to 23 inches!!

Can’t wait to see what this storm brings next time around…Feb 23rd – 27th timeframe??

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

March 2nd. It’s going to be huge. Either a huge snowfall or a huge disappointment (warmth?).

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

Of course a pretty big band of heavy snow forms just south of me to end the storm. 11.5 inches at 9am this morning……none since.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Poor snowhater, it’s been a bad day for him. Not only did we get 9 inches of snow, but the Chiefs won also.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

yeah, he needs to take his med and continue his therapy…we might have to check him in to an in patient program

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

One more snow burst hitting now, LOVE SNOW!!

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Accumulating snow has ended in southern Boone County. Submitted my final report with my spotter ID to the National Weather Service in St Louis at 4:30 PM. Storm total from my snowboard: 15.0”. What a storm!! I’m doing my happy snow dance. This puts my total snowfall for the winter so far at 23.4” in Ashland. I feel there is a very good chance I end up with over 30” for the winter. Have a great weekend bloggers.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Good on you being an official snow/rainfall reporter to NWS. KUDOS 👏👏👏

Thanks for keeping us up-to-date on weather in your area.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Your welcome, I have been a NWS spotter for 12+ years & joined CoCoRaHs back in 2006 submitting daily weather reports of rain/snow/ & dry weather as well. Weather is a huge hobby of mine & I don’t sleep much during active periods especially during the winter. Running on only 5 hours a sleep each of the past three nights. I stay up late to analyze all the model data & then usually up early to review new data take snow measurements and/or report rain fall amounts. My weather OCD kicks in overdrive just before & during winter storms. Anxious… Read more »

JustNora
Guest
JustNora

9” in the Northland near Penguin Park

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

ooh…good job Chiefs. I thought mabye they were beginning to have yet another one of their infamous playoff meltdowns, but they can right back and scored.

weatherdancer
Guest
weatherdancer

North Blue Springs has 8.0 inches

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Colts look terrible

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image GFS 18z

AnthonyW
Guest
AnthonyW

Rockdoc, I tend to agree with you about the freezing drizzle may not happen based on the HRRR Skew-T. If you look at the NAM (which did the best with this storm) it does show the potential for melting about 3 to 4km up right below the dendritic growth zone and then refreezing near the surface. It’s going to be real close. Below is a direct link to the skew-t chart for the NAM 3K 18z a couple of hours from now:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=nam3km&runtime=2019011218&fh=2&lat=39.08&lon=-94.64&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Thanks Anthony, much cleaner Skew-T chart too. So far, nothing in my area. This would be devistating for folks who’ve lost power.

Terey
Guest
Terey

comment image GFS 18z Look at this blizzard for next Friday or snow stone for next Friday

SnowCommander
Guest
SnowCommander

Red Bridge 10.0 inches.

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Just don’t think we’ll get freezing drizzle based on Skew-T charts. Air column is too cold. HRRR does show some over towards St Louis though.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2019011220&fh=3&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Josh
Guest
Josh

Grandview Triangle, I have 10″. Will call the NWS here in the next 30 mins or so and see where the highest amount has been reported at. I’m sure its to the east… Go Chiefsss!!!

Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc
Rockdoc
Guest
Rockdoc

Dang, my previous post auto posted before I could add this link for 12z GFS showing temps for Thursday January 24th. Ouch!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=T2m