A Major Winter Storm Is Developing

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Good morning bloggers,

A major winter storm is developing today over the southern and central plains.  The heaviest snow is likely near I-70 between Columbia, MO and St. Louis.  Farther west, there is a rather big challenge and battle between the models. Of all of the main models, not including the short range models which have a very warm bias in this situation, only the GFS model holds the changeover time to after around 9 PM in KC.  This is a big difference from the others that have the rain changing to snow period happening before 6 PM.  This will be the difference between 2 or 3 inch total amounts and 10″ of snow near KC.  I lean in the direction of the other models right now, and we will be monitoring this rain/snow change time-frame closely.  This is a rather important factor as the NWS decided to not upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory in KC and this is a bit conservative.  The latest FV3 GFS has a foot of snow near KC and the European model has around 8 to 9 inches. I will stick with 4-8 inches for now as I am anticipating around a 6 PM changeover.  If it happens earlier then the amounts will be higher. Here are some of the maps I showed last night on the air:

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Rain will be developing in a lead band before noon, and then the main area of rain will approach from the southeast after noon.  The red areas show a few snowflakes mixing in, and the blue shades show where this model is predicting snow.

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This was our in-house model at KSHB-TV that shows the rain beginning to change to snow between 3 and 6 PM:

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As the storm strengthens to the west, we will experience some dynamic cooling of the entire layer, and it may very well be enough to change to rain to snow over most of the KC region by 7 PM with heavy bands of snow.

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By 6 AM Saturday morning, as the intense emotional day for football in KC begins. We have experienced such horrible playoff losses in the past 25 years. Six straight losses at Arrowhead stadium in the playoffs, and after last years 22-21 loss after leading 21-3, it is now in our heads. There is only one way to get it out; by beating the Indianapolis Colts.  by around half time of the game, the snow will be tapering off to flurries. The wind will be out of the northwest around 15 mph, and the impacts on the game may not be so significant, unless this storm slows down just a bit.  Getting to the stadium may be a nightmare if the higher snowfall totals materialize.

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So, there is a lot to discuss today. We will update the blog later this afternoon if the advisory gets updated to a warning.  Right now, it is a “nowcast” of today’s weather and we will be monitoring the surface temperatures closely.  The NAM model develops a “snow making machine”.  Take a look at this:

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The 850 mb level is around 5,000 feet above sea level. This is why you see the dark brown color over Colorado, New Mexico, and Mexico. This brown area shows where the elevation is above this level.  This map shows a snow making machine developing at this level and it is centered where I plotted the L.  The low at 850 mb will most likely track along the 0°C or 32°F line, which will take it on a perfect track to produce high amounts of snow.  KC will be in an ideal temperature range, at around midnight, of around -3°C.  As this system tracks across southern Missouri, the rain will be forced to change to snow, and it will be heavy.  So, again, when will that changeover happen. This will be fascinating to track in the next 24 hours.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading and sharing in this weather experience.  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:   It should be quite the conversation today.  Have a great day.

Gary

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ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

New blog if didn’t know

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

On Gary’s facebook…he upped the specific totals a little bit…went from 6.4 to 7.3 for Lawrence…upped downtown a bit to 7.6

Mr. Fiffels
Guest
Mr. Fiffels

New Blog knuckleheads.

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20190121-0000z.html

Next week really could be a doozy, preparing for modelitus, as its all i know how to really do lol

Dylan
Guest
Dylan

Based on the forecast and the predicted totals, we might not see the grass for weeks. I enjoy the snow, I love it! But I enjoy a round of golf a little more lol This has to be the heaviest, wettest snow I’ve seen in a long time. Tomorrow should offer great scenery for a hike through the woods tomorrow.

Stay safe everyone!

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Ehh not impressed so far. Radar looks decent just not showing at the surface.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Could change overnight but holes developing within the snow shield………………….chances of poof increasing!

I am totally focused on tomorrow. If it poofs all will be well at Arrowhead and the city will be celebrating this time tomorrow night!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

nah…Gary just said no chance of that with this particular storm. Storm is just beginning he said. Relax and enjoy the storm

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Only .5 of snow in op😐

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

considering Gary predicting it to start snowing around 6, not bad

Ross (N. Overland Park)
Guest
Ross (N. Overland Park)

I’ve had to brush off the satellite dish twice. This precip is like glue.

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

28 degrees in Ballwin, MO right now with heavy snow…..5 inches of snow in 5 hours.

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

foodle, why does the latest euro still show 8-12 inches metro wide for snow depth? Not snowfall, but depth. Im just not quite seeing it, unless we are getting clobbered overnight.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Hi Jim! Are u enjoying the snow?🤣

Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

I drove from Gladstone to Overland Park and back. 2” in Gladstone 31 degrees The difference between Gladstone and just I 29 and Antioch Road was amazing (dusting). Once I got down to downtown there is absolutely no snow on the ground 32. Then no snow until 83rd and 71–dusting. OP had a dusting 32.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Dang look at St Louis on google maps / traffic view, and mo gateway guide cams. They are getting clobbered.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Yep, just talked to my sister and some of the major arteries are at a stand still. It gets pretty hilly south and west of the Lou adding to the problem

JimH
Guest
JimH

I saw the cream vest!! Someone is getting lucky!!! Here is hoping all of you get covered in white stuff tonight!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Here’s hoping a JDAM drops from the sky and lands somewhere close to you.

NoBeachHere
Guest
NoBeachHere

I’m thinking the same.
Currently very light snow, rain mixed in @ Liberty. 33
I got maybe 3/4, part of roads slush, just wet under trees

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I just wish this stuff moving in tonight was more comma head / wrap around related not warm air advection related. Our air is already too warm at least in Lenexa for today’s stuff to stick. How is tonight’s stuff going to stick if we have no colder air?

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Because it will be the snow from a negatively tilted axis, which will bring in at least a tad of colder air….just a tad as there isn’t much to work with. Look at the twist in western Kansas. That’s the snow making machine that will create more lift than frontogenesis forcing. This is not the main show we have now.

Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

Grass is covered here in Maryville but still wet on pavements! Gonna be a fun night!!
Michael

Morgan
Guest
Morgan

Temperature needs to drop in the next couple of hours to get in that 5-9 inch range. Still sitting a hair above freezing with a nice coating on grassy surfaces.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Have we ever had a situation where some places got heavier snow due to colder temperatures in pockets to a point where say this panned out if KCI had 2″ Gladstone 6″ Liberty 12″ Parkville a dusting North Kansas City a dusting Claycomo a dusting Downtown KC 4″ Stadium 1″ etc… I mean this situation today where in one spot it’s cold enough to stick in another it’s not almost sounds like it’s spottier than swiss cheese to who’s getting accumulations and who’s not lol

RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

Interesting you say that – as I was driving the 7 miles from 152 and Green Hills to my house at I-29 & 64th, my car thermometer bounced between 32 and 36! Never seen anything like that before. I thought it might be a function of downdrafts of snow bringing lower temps.

Daniel Robinson
Guest
Daniel Robinson

Richmond Missouri just did another measurement we are at 5.5 inches and still snowing with very slushy roads!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So your already almost 1/3rd of the way to your projected total. I hope that doesn’t mean that our storm is 1/3rd over, because I barely got a dusting!

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

* taking the most extreme model solutions.

Using Gary’s forecast your already over half way to our storm total.

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

Or Richmond is going to get more than projected. Hmmmmm

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

You are spending a lot of time fretting …just relax and enjoy the storm…it is what it is

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

This is about the slushiest snow I’ve ever seen.

John
Guest
John

Over 2″ already at 152 and 169 highway.

RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

Wow, what a difference only a few miles makes. I’m at I-29 & 64th and it’s still just a light covering with light snow falling. Temp has been at 32.5 for a few hours now. My precip has only increased by .06″ during that time.

Love having an Ambient Weather 2902A in the backyard for JUST THIS PURPOSE. 🙂

John
Guest
John

When it was coming down at its heaviest I think it dropped to 31, because there are some slush on the roads and driveways. I think it has warmed back up though, because I can hear it melting off vehicles.

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

I just measured 4 inches of snow in Ballwin, MO, it started snowing around 12:50.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

It’s been snowing for 5 hours and so far all I have at my house is a dusting. This seems very familiar. I don’t know if this reminds me more of the blizzard, or more of the Rocky trough part 1 November cycle where we had a full day’s worth of snow and only some isolated spots got 2 inches. I know we are pretty sure this will pan out different, but I can not help noticing the similarities. Some people have seen some more accumulation – what was it last time Sedalia was 2″ ahead of everyone and they… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

It seems like northeast (Liberty/Kearney/Excelsior Springs) is the coldest and snowiest area right now.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Ha Ha Ha snowhater look at all the snow Chiefs gonna win.

Sorry, couldn’t resist.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

lol…snowhater is MIA

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

35° with rain mixed with snow out here at the confluence of the Blue River and the 1st standard parallel.

LenexaDoc
Guest
LenexaDoc

I overlook I-435. Traffic appears to be moving at a normal rate. Maybe this is one of those winter storms that bi-sects the KC metro area?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

But bisects which way?

LenexaDoc
Guest
LenexaDoc

A NW/SE gradient, Has happened before…

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Looks like platte county has lost the heavy snow bands and now is very light Will it get heavy again?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

As long as it keeps snowing and the temperature keeps dropping, I don’t care!

Cmw
Member
Cmw

So do you the moisture snow making machine to our south west will crank more snow for KC area?

Mark
Guest
Mark

It’s just getting started. It should snow all night.

Steve In excelsior
Guest
Steve In excelsior

Pushing 3” in excelsior springs roads are becoming snow packed and have an air temperature of 30. I think we could end up closer to a foot here

LenexaDoc
Guest
LenexaDoc

Very little in Lenexa thus far. Just a rain/snow mix.

Leroy Jenkins
Guest
Leroy Jenkins

2.5-3.5′ in harrisonville. The roads were terrible coming home from Lee’s Summit down MO-7. Lots of cars in the ditch.

Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

If you believe the cycle length is 52 days, then that’s the blizzard that we had November 25.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

50 not 52

Mike Holm
Guest
Mike Holm

We’ll see.

Becca
Guest
Becca

What is showing up on the models for next weekend is related to the 1 in. or so of rain about a week after the blizzard. It also coincides with the end of the week long rain event we had in early October as where the beginning of the week long rain event in October coincides with the blizzard and current storm.

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

Just thinking– at least 5-8″ of snow to be plowed at Arrowhead stadium parking lot, correct? Thats going to be taking up some space!! 🙂

MattinLeavenworth
Guest
MattinLeavenworth

I came over to my local price chopper because I wanted to get wings and snacks for the game tomorrow and not have to go anywhere. The lines are ridiculous. I’ve never seen so many people. It is Friday after 4, but cmon lol.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

people loading up on snacks for the game

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Gary said a blizzard was showing up next weekend on the 4 PM news!

Randy Keller
Guest
Randy Keller

poof on that one…

Shawn in LFK
Guest
Shawn in LFK

Snowing hard in Lawrence. Not sticking yet. Surprised we’re still in a WWA.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

we border on the WSW…consider we are in it too

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary just said a blizzard is showing up for next weekend. LOL

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Heat

And….it is right on schedule

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

BRING IT JOEK

Jason
Guest
Jason

Gary just updated on 41 action news site 5-9″ for metro mostly done by noon. Says roads will improve Saturday throughout the day. Plan ahead if going to the game and be LOUD for those of us that can’t go.

Weatherby Tom
Guest
Weatherby Tom

Who’s gonna be lucky 500??

2SoccerBoyz
Guest
2SoccerBoyz

Blue Springs: Snow accumulating on grass, deck, sidewalks and driveway. Looks like it is also starting to stick to the streets. Be safe out there, everyone!

Savannah
Guest
Savannah

The stadium field is heated FYI.

About 1/2 an inch in Raymore.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Winter Storm Warning most of metro know.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

One county east of Lawrence…I think bordering counties can consider themselves under the watch too

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary will be doing a facebook live at 8:30 tonight

Cmw
Member
Cmw

Can you give me the link to that?

Jason
Guest
Jason

You mean bourbon and club soda, right? I’m on call all weekend (get called in a lot) but got a non sports coworker to cover for me during the Chiefs game. They better not reschedule the game

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

It hasn’t done enough YET to consider it but I still think (sorry) the best thing to do if you want a loud, full Arrowhead Stadium is move it to Sunday Night.

Katharidinaus
Guest
Katharidinaus

A bread and milk emergency is in effect right now judging from save a lot lol

Mary in Shawnee
Guest
Mary in Shawnee

Interesting the difference a few blocks make. 75th and Switzer, snow on ground and roofs, 75th and Quivira, snow on roofs. My neighborhood at 63rd and Alden, wet but no snow sticking.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Same thing here. Parkville area: 64th/I-29: Snow sticking, even to pavement. 64th/MO-9: Snow barely sticking to grass. 64th/I-435: Snow sticking to everything except the roads.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

The grocery store was an absolute nightmare….

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

And now everyone will stay home and watch the game. Arrowhead, barring a miracle overnight, will be half full tomorrow at kickoff and maybe less than that if it continues to snow at that time.

Jeff
Guest

Coming up on a half inch on my deck and grass in Lee’s Summit. Looking to be quite impressive tomorrow!!!!
Only 3 things to do tomorrow: smoke some sausage, drink beer and watch Chiefs!!!!!!!!!!