A Winter Storm Develops On Friday

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Good morning bloggers,

A winter storm will be developing on Friday.  There are still a lot of questions for what exactly will be happening, and with a huge NFL playoff game being played in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium the pressure is on the weather forecasters to get quite specific.  When it comes to forecasting snow, the difficulty factor is much higher.  It is unlike forecasting anything else as the exact amount becomes more important. When it comes to predicting rain, we just say, it is going to rain, and then when it rains we are accurate. When it comes to predicting snow, the amounts become the measure of accuracy.  We are saying there is a 100% chance of snow Friday night and Saturday.  If it snows we are accurate, right?  Well, not really, because the difference between a dusting or no accumulation and 2″ or more will often be the difference between no major travel problems, and a complete mess.  So, we do our best to get the exact amount.  When it comes to rainfall, we can forecast a 100% chance of rain and if it rains the average person considers the forecast accurate. It may rain 0.25″ in one location, and just a few miles away it may rain 1.25″.  If that were snow, it would be the difference between 2.5″ of snow and 12.5″ of snow.  With that said, look at St. Louis on this snowfall forecast below:

6

What you see on this map, for Kansas City, I think it has a decent handle on the snowfall amounts in my current forecast.  We are forecasting 2″ to 5″ of snow to accumulate by noon Saturday over the KC region.  Some models have a lot more than this, and others have a lot less.  Here is the bigger picture:

1

So, it appears the St. Louis area is the main target for this developing winter storm.  The RGEM model, one I rarely look at, just came out and it looks similar to the NAM and  Canadian models. It has a faster changeover to snow, and only one or two degrees colder at the surface. This one or two degrees may be the difference between KC seeing 2″ of snow and 10″ of snow.

2This is the RGEM model valid at noon Friday. As you can see, there is rain heading this way, as this storm intensifies.  This storm is directly related to the blizzard that we had back in November. If you remember, that storm also started as rain, it was faster moving, and a bit stronger.  The rain changed to heavy snow with the winds gusting to nearly 40 mph. This transition happened during the noon hour that day, and 5.8″ of snow fell at KCI Airport, making that the first 3″ or more snow storm in almost five years. We may be about to have our second 3″ or more snow storm in five years, and it is spot on accurate based on the LRC.  This has been in our forecast for this week since October.  Yes, in October, our 12-week forecast had a winter storm in the forecast for around January 12th. And, for those of you watching my on 41 Action News, since December 30th I showed a graphic showing that there would be a storm on January 12th for the Chiefs game and that this was the “blizzard part of the LRC returning”. All of that was on the air every night since before New Years.  Absolutely incredible, when I know many of you realize that the models had it sunny and nice.  It is not easy to keep saying there will be a storm, when it doesn’t show up on the models, and this is the power of the LRC.

Now with that said, look at what happens Friday afternoon:

3

By 3 PM Friday, above, you can see the large precipitation area of rain and snow, and just a few hours later, it completely changes over to snow. Remember now, there are models that change it over much slower:

4

This model, and a few others such as the NAM and Canadian model, and now also the European Model, has the changeover happening by 9 PM. It may not happen this early. There is a flow from the Gulf of Mexico and this warmer air is trying to pump in, and this is also a storm intensifying at this time. This means there will be some dynamic cooling.  I believe the same questions came up with the blizzard as it was changing over. The storms aloft are quite similar on Friday night into Saturday morning, so this will be interesting again to watch unfold. If the changeover happens later, then more of the precipitation will be in the form of rain.

5

By 6 AM Saturday, this model has all of Kansas and Missouri in snow, with the exception of the southern borders.  The storm will begin shifting east Saturday, and it will still likely be lightly snowing during the Chiefs game, and there is still a chance of a few heavier snow bands hanging around.

Overall, here are my takeaways:

  • A wet January storm is developing and targeting our area
  • Rain will begin Friday
  • Rain will mix with or change to snow later Friday evening and overnight into Saturday morning
  • Snow will begin accumulating with 2″ to 5″ expected near Kansas City
  • Eastern Missouri has a better chance of a lot more
  • There are still uncertainties, and these amounts may be dropped a bit, or they may rise a bit

Let’s see how the models come in today. Either way, if you have followed the LRC over the past few years, then you know that by January we now know enough to make these accurate predictions. It was a year ago this week where I stood in front of my peers and predicted the tropical storm Gordon EIGHT MONTHS before it happened. And, now, this is the first of many signature predictions this year.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link:   Have a great day!  New data comes in soon.

Gary

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f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

HRRR is the bible is it not? I know alot of people take HRRR to be the best, better than the NAM or GFS. Are we throwing the warm air out?

CraigMac
Guest
CraigMac

What about temps? It looks like temps are going to hover in the low 30s. Without a little colder temps, the snow amounts will be less.

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Gary just updated the blog which should post on here shortly. He believes the GFS and high-res models have a warm bias right now. As the system strengthens it will drop the freezing levels to the surface most likely.

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

I normally dont pull the euro from here.. but am I reading this right? 12-15″ on 0z run?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019011100/missouri/snow-depth-in/20190113-0500z.html

Jack
Guest
Jack

12-15 would be out in central Missouri.

Clint
Guest
Clint

You are reading it right, absolute crush job!

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056
RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

Looks amazingly similar to the NAM.

Clint
Guest
Clint

The FV3 was the first model to pick up on this storm so it deserves to verify!

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

First to pick up on every snow event it seems!

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Some have noticed the system showing up for next weekend! This system fits the LRC ( from my amateur prospective) and is one I have written down to impact us. I will double down on my original forecast of above to much above average snow and the opportunity for 1-2 more “blizzard like” systems. Next few weeks should produce for snow lovers then calm down for a period before reloading. My humble 2 cents

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Fv3gfs I hope it wins snow paradise!!

RickMcKC
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

I think something is up with pivotweather– look at the tropical tidbit run for 3k:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011100&fh=60

Based on tropical tidbit– every model.. including the 0z GFS are showing at least 6″ the FV3 show 11″…

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=eus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011100&fh=60

Jason
Guest
Jason

3 other stations saying 2-4” max. Guess we shall see. When it comes to winter weather, it’s anyones guess.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

Suprising 2-4 goes against most of the models

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

The furry Mets keep talking about investigating the system with weather balloons before making a prediction on totals. Why??? Sounds so bizarre.

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

I feel the FV3 has been much more accurate then the GFS recently. Especially on this storm. The FV3 has been consistent modeling snow for KC while the GFS has been a no go. Guess we will see Saturday night who wins. Question: what happens to the GFS next month when the FV3 takes over? Does this mean the GFS goes away?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

GFS is weak currently because of the government shutdown. Take anything it says with a grain of salt. Definitely trust the FV3 for now.

As for the answer to your question, no idea.

RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

Why would that not also be true of NAM? Both are NOAA models.

BTW, where are you located? I am near I-29 & 64th.

RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

The above comment was for snowflakeparkville.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

64th/Union Chapel area.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

RickMcKc,

Because it isn’t necessarily true. The GFS has been off all season long. FV3 has performed much better

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

Something up with either tropical tidbits or pivotal weather.. 0z GFS do not look anything similar. Trop has 6-8″ in metro area…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011100&fh=6
vs
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011100&fh=36&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_c&p=sn10_acc&m=gfs

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

When you change the snowfall amounts from 10:1 to Kuchera it’s an even bigger difference
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019011100&fh=48&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

GFS is such an outlier with this storm

Cole
Guest
Cole

Canadian Model is holding steady as well.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Lol furry channel saying 2-3. What a joke they are.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Gfs poof I definitely think the nam is overdoing it!

morganu
Member
morganu

GFS not budging.

Terry
Guest
Terry

What are you come on here at a certain time? It’s like you wanna be negative lol

morganu
Member
morganu

Stating what I’ve seen from the GFS. I’m not cherry picking model runs.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

It is the outlier model right now though

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Haha, dont think you have ever said anything positive

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Wow HRRR at 45 degrees at 3 PM NAM at 31.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

entirely too warm

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

HRRR is obviously wrong…lol

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Garys new forecast…4-8 inches.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I’ll split the difference and call it 6 inches

kstater
Guest
kstater

Although the HRRR doesn’t extend into the snow yet i have noticed it shows it about 10 degrees warmer than the Nam does at noon tomorrow.

George Bailey
Guest
George Bailey

Anyone mind posting Gary’s video highlights? Thanks

Paul
Guest
Paul
f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3
Mr. Fiffels
Guest
Mr. Fiffels

If it verifies to 6-10″, temp forecasts for next week will have to be lowered. Be careful shovelling – take lots of breaks. May be hard to move with a snow blower.

Chiefs better find a way to play defense.

JeffG
Guest
JeffG

Can someone provide a link to the Facebook Live?

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

Katy bar the door! This is going to be epic, can’t wait to report my snowfall total Saturday evening!

Matt
Guest
Matt

The Snow will stay on the ground so more on top of it end of next week. 2 Feet.

Freezemiser
Guest
Freezemiser

Let’s go Team Snow!

– Freeze

Paul
Guest
Paul

It looks like the models are pulling up a focal ratio of possible outcomes. Snow and rain converge in a type of near eastern. I noticed a gale advisory to the east and susceptible to heat climate models that bear down on the storms potential. I’d say the snow will be 78 percent chance.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I’m more interested in short range models at this point. Fwiw the hrrr like the Nam have a quicker transition to all snow. Tough call at this point. NEED MORE DATA!!!!!lol

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Good evening again everyone…. It loooks to me on the 0Z NAM that the surface low is a tad stronger than what the 12Z showed; the track is pretty close to the same. I also noticed that there is closed circulation at both the 850 and 700 MB levels….this is sur enot as strong as the cycle 1 version but man it has the circulation to pump some serious moisture up our way….to my very untrained eye, this is mositure conveyor belt storm. All that said…..I still don’t trust the temperatures…..if it was in the teens or 20’s in Nebraska… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

NAM has 10-14″ using Kuchera in KC metro. 3-5″ by 6PM FRI

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Wow. I doubt it’s for real, but we could be about to see something incredible.

snowhater
Guest
snowhater

snow hater is here to back up poof the temps well be to warm no snow heat mizer do you have a job h job

supercell
Guest
supercell

By the beard of Zeus…the 00z NAM…put that run in the HOF if it comes to fruition

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

We have a hall of fame? I want to see this

Jack
Guest
Jack

NAM continues to give us all snow and a lot of it, yes, 6-10 inches for the metro with a foot just to our east. Even if you only add up the totals starting at 6 p.m. Friday, then you still get 4-8 inches for the metro. It will be interesting once again to see what the gfs comes out and says. Looking forward to the facebook live.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

what do you think of the new data Gary??

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

and for those of you concerned about ratios……… here is the adjusted ratio snow map

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011100&fh=42&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_c&p=snku_acc&m=nam

8-12″

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056
Terry
Guest
Terry

Yeah its dose 9 to 12 inches of snow

Jack
Guest
Jack

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2019011100&fh=19
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=Td2m&runtime=2019011100&fh=19

You can easily see the storm pulling up tons of moisture– we should be seeing a conveyor belt of moisture coming up from the south by tomorrow morning.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

new NAM has a quicker change over to snow! at least that is what it looks like

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=scus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019011100&fh=18

Jack
Guest
Jack

19 hours out, nam is still holding on to starting the storm as mostly all snow…. still rolling out…

Jack
Guest
Jack

0z nam rolling out… probably one of the last viable runs for the storm since it is getting so close.

Bill in Lawrence
Guest
Bill in Lawrence

Gary: Happy Thursday evening to you sir!! Just a few random thoughts from a hobbyist on a good day!! First and foremost….go LRC!!!!! This storm has been discussed on this site since it first appeared in cycle 1. Low and behold…here it is…right on schedule!!! No further words are needed. I have only had time to briefly glance at the models but based on the track and strength of this storm for this cycle, I’m going with 1 maybe 2 inches at my house just SW of Lawrence. Am I being conservative…maybe, but I would argue no. Strength….a bit of… Read more »

Jack
Guest
Jack

I so remember that happening before the Christmas blizzard… brings back great memories from that storm.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

*cycle 2. not cycle 1. “The big storm” marks the beginning of each new cycle, not the end. November 25 was the beginning of cycle 2 and we are about to hit cycle 3.

BIG PAPA POOF
Guest
BIG PAPA POOF

THE POOF MAN IS HERE

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

oh no

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

you guys crack me up

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Agree

Clint
Guest
Clint

Ratios are not the problem folks. Read the NWS discussion, switch over time is the main issue.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Where did you read this? Forecast discussion?

Cmw
Member
Cmw

I think it’s in 1Weather app Also noaa.com

Mr. Fiffels
Guest
Mr. Fiffels

WSW by morning. Don’t see any way this doesn’t go 6+. It is slowing down just like the last one. Gary nailed it.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

you promise?

Clint
Guest
Clint

I think sometime tomorrow they will.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Gary has been saying 2-5 inches, not 6+.

Jack
Guest
Jack

He’s been saying if the changeover is earlier there would be potential for those totals to increase.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

You’ve changed your tone