The LRC & This Developing Storm

Good morning bloggers,

Here we go again!  In some winter seasons, 2009-2010 winter & 2010-2011 winter, we get blasted by big winter storm systems and we are so fulfilled as weather enthusiasts it is like winning the Super Bowl.  Not that those of us in Kansas City know what that feels like, and I am talking Super Bowls.  And then in other winters, the past four winters before this year, we do not get that feeling as weather enthusiasts, and frustration builds over years, somewhat like leading 21-3 in a home playoff game and then losing at the end.  We have a set up approaching that is a great exhibit for the LRC, and yet it is still a difficult forecast because of where we live. The forecast is not as complex in other areas off to the east. Kansas City is likely once again going to be close to the edge of this storm, when it comes to the snow part of it. Take a look at this storm developing, and how it relates to the November storm:

Screen Shot 2019-01-09 at 7.05.18 AM

Just look at the maps above. The one on the left shows the storm that happened and produced blizzard conditions in KC, and it also produced the FIRST 3″ snow storm in almost five years.  Yes, we went over four winters in a row without even one 3″ storm in Kansas City, and this streak ended around seven weeks ago.  Well, that part of the pattern is cycling back through right on schedule as predicted 45 days ago by Weather2020.  We predicted that this would return around January 12th, and here it is down to the date.  A specific forecast is verifying.  Look again at the differences in the models:

Screen Shot 2019-01-09 at 7.05.18 AM 2

The NAM and Canadian models both have almost a replica of the November storm.  We know one thing for certain; it will not be exactly the same. There are seasonal differences and as Gary England said to me around ten years ago, “I see it Lezak, it’s the same but different”.  Yes, it is the same pattern, and we will have something similar set up. The subtle differences can make or break our snowfall potential.  The GFS model loses, just barely, the identical look to the pattern, and as a result the snow is weaker and farther east.  For KC to have a big snowfall, the NAM and Canadian upper level model solutions just need to verify, and boom, it will snow a lot.  If the GFS trends to being accurate, even though it is still the same pattern but different, the chance of accumulation is lower and farther east.  Here are four of the models that came out last night:

4

3

2

1

So, how will this line up?  Let’s see how the models come in today. I favor the NAM upper level solution, and I only favor it slightly as I am certain it will not line up exactly the same. If it comes very close, then it will snow significantly. If it leans in the GFS direction, then it will snow a lot less.  The temperature profiles are also dependent on how the upper level pattern sets up, so when someone suggests it will be mostly rain, the only way it will be mostly rain is if the weaker and farther east solution sets up. For snow enthusiasts, root for the NAM, it is a possibility.  The new NAM comes out shortly.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly sunny. High:  40°
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny. High:  43°
  • Friday: Rain developing possibly mixed with or changing to snow, first on the Missouri side of the state line by evening or overnight.
  • Saturday: Rain and snow likely. Accumulations of a dusting to 3″ possible. (More will be possible if the storm is better organized) Temperatures near freezing with some light precipitation likely during the game with a northwest breeze around 15 mph.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link:   Have a great day!

Gary

Share this post with your friends

240
Leave a Reply

avatar
129 Comment threads
111 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
75 Comment authors
Stl78(winon,mn)Garrett OsbournClintTerry Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

And the euro increased as well, this model has been much more consistent this season w our pattern, almost like it has a slow and steady approach. Looking like the 5-inch area may be the sweet spot.

Garrett Osbourn
Guest
Garrett Osbourn

As todays models come in a little weaker, remind yourselves how the blizzard went, three days out was a smacker of a storm on models, two days out the models totally poofed the storm, the next day the storm was right back on track, we had a good trend yesterday, so maybe we get the same effect with this system. (trying to postpone the phase of conclusion jumpers)

Clint
Guest
Clint

Last night Euro increased amounts for almost all of us.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20190113-1200z.html

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Would you say 3-6 is a good bet on snow prediction for metro KC?

JimH
Guest
JimH

I sure was hoping to see MMike and JoeK eloping. Talk about queers…

Athan
Guest
Athan

Email I just received from the National Weather Service.

Forecast confidence continues to increase for snow developing Friday afternoon/evening through Saturday. Overall, it looks like we’ll see a transition from rain and drizzle to ligh snow through Friday afternoon, with snow becoming the dominant precipitation type by Friday night and continuing into Saturday. The best window for accumulating snow, at this time, is Friday night through Saturday Morning. The heaviest snow is expected across portions of central and eastern Missouri, where a Winter Storm Watch is in effect.

JimH
Guest
JimH

White balls on Terry

Chris
Guest
Chris

Stl78….I’m headed to Minneapolis this coming Monday for a conference (driving) my question is….what’s the weather supposed to be like next week up there? I was kinda hoping to experience some Minnesota weather with lots of snow and cold! Am I going to get an opportunity to experience a Minnesota snowstorm or am I going to be experiencing boring weather by you guy’s standards? Thanks in advance!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Chris , I just saw your question. Unfortunately as it stands now we have very little snow cover with no signs of a storm anytime soon. Temps look to b in the 20s to low 30s as it stands right now. How long r u in the cities for?

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

All models trended much lower on the 06z, including NAM.

Terry
Guest
Terry

The Nam 06z still say like 3 to 6 inches

Psychotic Aardvark
Guest
Psychotic Aardvark

Anybody have Gary’s updated snow totals from 10pm? I missed it.

Terry
Guest
Terry

He said now 2 to 5 inches

KSA
Guest
KSA

We have to drive to St Louis on Friday. Should we pull our kids out of school and go early or will it be ok if we leave after school say 3:30 ish?

heavysnow
Guest
heavysnow

As somebody who lives in St Louis suburbs….I liked Gary’s latest snowfall map.

Rred
Guest
Rred

What are the pavement temps ? I don’t think it will accum much on streets and arrowhead field is heated, doubt the game time is in jepordy of being moved…but they moved the pitttsburg playoff game for a major ice storm that never happened 2 years ago.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Always possible tophat. Up here we r 14 in behind avg for snowfall. Must be going to Missouri…lol

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Cannot wait for the Saturday comments when this thing doesn’t verify……………:)

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Oh terry

Terry
Guest
Terry

Yes stl78

Jcling64056
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

00z Canadian staying consistent

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

yep

Terry
Guest
Terry

The GFS model Is going to be outlet model and Replaced this year by the New FV3-GFS models this year so throw out the GFS model

AlexPickman
Guest
AlexPickman

You can’t just throw it out

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I would lean the GFS. The NAM is highly suspect showing us having several inches of snow with an air temperature of 35-40 F. Not gonna happen. Not unless it comes down at 5″ per hour.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Keep in mind the NAM always has a cold bias – coming out of a warm stretch that’s something to consider.

I would say:

Friday afternoon – Rain mixed with snow. Slush sticking, up to 1/2″ accumulation at times.
Friday evening – Snow light to moderate. 1-2″ of accumulation by Midnight.
Saturday Midnight to Noon – Snow at times moderate. 3-6″ total accumulation.

Bob H
Guest
Bob H

3-6 sounds good to me

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

That’s probably what will happen.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056
Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image GFS 18z .

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Both the GFS and Icon still going poof.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

This is closer to true. The storm is coming out in pieces no certainty all the ingredients will converge like November 25 plus the El Nino influence has to factor in.

Clint
Guest
Clint

The GFS has issues and they are unable to fix it because of the government shut down.

blue flash
Guest
blue flash

5 inches on the grass and 1-2 slushy inches on the roads.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Or I can play it safe and say a dusting to a foot is likely! Sometime between Friday and Sunday!🤣

Clint
Guest
Clint

The CYA forecast!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

A blended solution is most likely. That’s why I like my 3 to 5 prediction

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

new GFS is entirely too warm. I would toss it out

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

also with the government shutdown I wouldn’t rely on it

morganu
Member
morganu

The new GFS is much more realistic.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Hope u get the mother of all snowstorms Terry. Have a great 19

morganu
Member
morganu

We aren’t getting those totals with the extremely marginal temperatures we’ll be dealing with. Not even close.

Terry
Guest
Terry

You don’t know that see you can’t say that lol Then if you understand it will be at night and it’s a lot cooler lol

morganu
Member
morganu

Yes I do know that. Look at the thermals on all model guidance. Marginal temperatures at best.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

El Nino will have its influence mark it down. Still think this, except for a brief period overnight Friday/Saturday is mainly a rain event.

Terry
Guest
Terry

If it comes down at night yes it will accumulate a lot more And Gary said most of that will fall Friday night into Saturday.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

This is gonna be the big one Elizabeth!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

LMAO…..jack squat buddy!

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

Holy mother of NAM.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Facebook Live tonight or tomorrow Gary?

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

I didn’t think they canceled games due to snow?? Anyone remember the NewEngland Oakland The 2001 AFC Divisional Playoff game

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

I think they would only if the timing was just right, i.e. the storm got wicked bad before the game and nobody could get to it.

Matt
Guest
Matt

Miami and Dallas played in the Snow.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Gary, will there be thundersnow??

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I for one believe in the nam/euro solution in regards to timing and think it will impact the game. However, I’m not buying the Nam totals. 3 to 5 seems reasonable, possibly 4 to 6. Just my take at this pt. Ask me again fri😉

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

I was out in my yard earlier and the ground wasn’t warm at all, dry hard and cold. At least in the shade.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Idk. I mean they never cancel Buffalo games or NE games for snow. I don’t think they would have to NFL playoff games going on at one end neither.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

I’m saying 10 inches total from this storm. And I hope it falls during game. Luck will have no luck! And my cowboys will win as well, stadium will have more Cowboys fans than rams fans. Cowboys vs Chiefs in Super Bowl.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

hahaahahahahahahahhaahha – about the superbowl prediction

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

I know some say ground temps may be to warm for good accumulation. I wonder if the fact that’s it’s January and not November will help? Also with at least cooler weather today and tomorrow will also help, and lastly if it snows all night wouldn’t that help bring up the totals?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I am more interested in the timing at this or and if u believe the euro/nam, then the game could b awfully white.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Anyone have concerns that that 18z NAM shows 9-12″ @ 10:1 ratio of snow across Kansas City with 3-5″ of that falling with temperatures of 35F? NAM finally shows it dropping to 30 degrees at 06z Saturday but the storm is 2/3rds over by then. It would take 2″/hr to accumulate so at times we may have a slushy mix until Midnight Saturday and then it may start sticking for good. If you take that scenario we could still have 3-6″ of snow, but the commute Friday night should be mostly ok.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2019011000&fh=66&r=us_c&dpdt=

latest NAM with adjusted Kuchera ratios! 6-10″+ possible

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

The nam continues to pound Missouri, both west n East and if this solution were to verify the chiefs game would be awfully dicey

rush2112
Guest
rush2112

Someone beat me to it earlier, Mr Hume I think, but it’s worth repeating. After seeing the B word a lot here today I think it’s safe to say we’re not going to have a blizzard Sat or at any point during this event. I would be surprised if anything other than a WWA is issued. I’d also be surprised if KC metro got any more than 2-4″, if that.

Terry
Guest
Terry

It could be more than a Winter weather advisory

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

Gary, will we see an updated snowfall map tonight at 10? maybe higher totals??

JVossboss
Guest
JVossboss

Hi Gary! What is the new model showing?

JVossboss
Guest
JVossboss

Oops.. sorry! I see where you responded when they come in.

Aaron
Guest
Aaron

Longtime follower, first time poster. When do the new models come out tonight?

Fred Nolan
Guest
Fred Nolan

NWS KC seems to be trending towards a warmer solution leading to less accumulation. NAM appears to be the only model at this point that indicates a much colder solution, which would result in a more bullish snow total across the board. SREF plumes also indicate modest snow totals, along with a warmer temperature solution. So, given the bulk of model guidance at this point indicates more of a warmer solution to Friday night and Saturday have opted for more of the modest approach to snow totals for this event, especially given fairly warm surface and road temperatures. Will continue… Read more »

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

I meant fv3gfs too

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

18z gfs looks like it’s on board too!

Jcling64056
Guest