A Look Into The End Of The Week Set-Up

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Good morning bloggers,

There is a chance of snow on Friday night into Saturday morning.  The part of the LRC, the cycling pattern that created the conditions favorable for Kansas City’s first 3″ snow accumulation from one storm in almost five years, is cycling back through later this week into this weekend.  I will say this again, it is the storm that ended an almost five year stretch where every single snowstorm  produced under 3″ until November 25th.  That’s when 5.8″ of snow fall with near blizzard conditions as temperatures dropped from the low 60s on the 24th to the 20s the next afternoon.  This part of the pattern is directly related that storm. In this next LRC cycle, it will not be exactly the same.  The LRC model predicted this system to be near Kansas and Missouri six to seven weeks ago and it is verifying.  Now, will we have our second 3″ storm of the season after five years with none, or will this system just miss our area?  It is something we are monitoring closely.

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Most of the models have this surface pattern developing Friday into Saturday morning. An inverted trough is forecast to stretch north out of an eastern Texas surface low. The snowfall pattern is most concentrated over central and eastern Missouri on the latest models. Some of them have KC with barely a dusting, while others have nearly 10″ of snow.  This model shows a snowy pattern for early Saturday, and then it ends by the time the Chiefs take the field on Saturday afternoon on NBC as they host the Colts.

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In this scenario, the precipitation would taper off to being very light during the game or ending.   If the timing is a bit slower, then it may be snowing during the game. If it is a bit faster, it may be drizzling, flurries, or dry during the game.  I am just not confident on the timing or amounts at this time.

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This snowfall forecast shows widespread 2 to 3 inch amounts near KC. This is the GFS model. The FV3-GFS model shows much higher amounts, while the European model has no accumulation in KC with it just east of the city.

It is still a bit too early to analyze the details. By tomorrow we should be able to narrow in on the trends.  Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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Jason
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Jason

Timing will be interesting

Adam
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Adam

As of this morning, it looks like the GFS is the only model that’s not on board with a 4+ inch storm for the KC metro.

Will be interesting to see which model wins out here. Remember, the last time this storm came through, the euro had it pegged from the beginning.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

The ICON also just has a couple inches for the area.
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Frankie
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Frankie

All of the models are now consistent on accumulating snow. NAM and FV3 most bullish with 5-8 inches

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Yes Joe but snow has increased to the west as well in comparison to previous run.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

This isn’t wishcasting, hell I don’t even live there but here is the overnight euro ………..

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/missouri/snow-depth-in/20190113-1800z.html

Joe
Guest
Joe

STL getting hammered

Mr. Fiffels
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Mr. Fiffels

Hey – find the model with the most snow and “buy into that one”. Would be nice just to have an updated 7-day on kshb.com.

The level pf wishcasting is incredible.

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Any new data?? Saw the flawed fv3gfs had 0z data with a bunch of snow. Enjoy your day bloggers!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Good morning jim

JimH
Guest
JimH

Cream suits on all of you

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)
snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

First of all… HAIL NAM

Second of all…Whenever I click on this tab, it shows “A Look Into The End Of The W…” and I always mentally read it as “a look into the end of the world.” Just thought that was funny.

RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

Hilarious.

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056
RickMcKC
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RickMcKC

Too warm for a 10:1 ratio. Just sayin’.

MMike
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MMike

Hi Rick,

You are correct. You can cut the NAM and GEM in half if temps are correct on the data.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019010900&fh=90&r=us_c&dpdt=

new Canadian with adjusted Kuchera ratio still a solid 5-8″ throughout. Same goes for the NAM I think

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019010900&fh=96&r=us_c&dpdt=

new Canadian with adjusted Kuchera ratio, still a solid 5-8″ throughout. Same goes for the NAM too I believe

RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

Just a couple of degrees colder and this could be a big deal. Of course, some would say that 5+ inches on the grass and wet streets is the best kind of snow.

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

what do you think the chances of that Rick?? The temps being a degree or 2 colder I mean

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Gary: Are trends for snow totals to be higher in central MO?? When you put out your first snowfall predictions can you expand to include Columbia & Jefferson City areas? Hoping this will be our first 3” snow in years for Boone County ? Nov 25-26 when KC got hit by the blizzard I only picked up 1.8”. Other snows in Ashland were 2.2” on 11-9, 2.5” on 11-13, 0.3” on 11-15, & 1.6” total from 12-4 through 12-6. Still hoping this one gives me that 3”+ snow & ends my long drought. Trends look good. Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Clint
Guest
Clint

The was almost negatively tilted. This could be the real deal.

thetophat
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thetophat

Yep gonna get a couple of inches of precip……………..still betting 90+ percent of it is rain.

Clint
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Clint

I don’t think so, it’s a good looking storm with plenty of cold air to pull down. I may end up eating crow but I think KC is in a good spot for 6 in or so,

MMike
Guest
MMike

Clint,

Plenty of cold air…Where? All data has this entire event at 32-33-34 degrees.

There is no cold air to pull down.

Clint
Guest
Clint

I am banking on snowfall rates to pull temps down a little lower than the models are showing and factoring in the heavier snow will fall while its dark. Secondly the upper layers will be plenty cold and I’m thinking 6 in not the 7-12 the CMC just put out.

MMike
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MMike

Clint,

Yes, night time will help. Hopefully if that much moisture does indeed occur, we can hopefully get temps closer to 30 or 29 to maximize accumulations.

Clint
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Clint

I hope so, as Rick has been saying ratios will be lower than 10:1 I would guess 6:1 or 8:1 if we are lucky.

Johnny
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Johnny

You’re persistent I’ll give you that

Brad
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Brad
JimH
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JimH

Looks like a big 8incher

Jcling64056
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Jcling64056

latest NAM blasts the metro

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

5-6+” of SNOW

rush2112
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rush2112

Remember whatever the weather does Sat, the Colts have to play in it too. Mahomes said on the radio today he’s not worried about it.

Alexander
Guest
Alexander

NAM comes out in 20 minutes – you know you have a problem when you are staring at the clock

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Bahahaha that’s hilarious but true

Alexander
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Alexander

Still has us for 4-7 inches in KC through midday Saturday.

Johnny
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Johnny

What does that look like

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Railroads hiring!

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

I’m furloughed with the Govt shutdown. I’ll make it though. I appreciate the offer. Just sucks not getting a paycheck.

Paul
Guest
Paul

It’s not like you’re not going to get paid. There’s a lot of people out there that are worse off they’re not going to get paid it all

Austin Braddock
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Austin Braddock

Bsmike- there are plenty of jobs out their. Why won’t you be getting pay. If you need to email me. My email is alb.christianoutreach@gmail.com. Or
Indeed.com
UPS is hiring every where.

Cmw
Member
Cmw

I hope Richard is ok Wow, 89 plus comments today! I love it!!

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Hey blogger can someone start a gofund me page? 😂. Looking like I’ll be without pay for a while. I guess I could shovel snow Saturday morning 😟😭

Supercell
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Supercell

18z FV3 is very interesting…

brad
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brad

which 18z FV3-GFS are you looking at

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

18z gfs not as strong on this model run

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Have not seen him on here in awhile

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Has Richard been back after his surgery?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Nope

f00dl3
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f00dl3

We are expecting snow in 4 days And the 7 day still shows 51 for a LOW tomorrow morning? http://mediaassets.kshb.com/weatherimages/2018_7_day_forecast.jpg

brad
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brad

that was Mondays morning low, this is Tuesday brian

Brian
Guest
Brian

I hate it just if it’s happening during the game. Will hurt mahomes and the passing game but I am a snow lover. Either do it Friday night/ saturday morning or hold off until after the game!

Clint
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Clint

Rain and snow help the passing game. Wind hurts the passing game.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

NAM is going boom!
comment image

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

And the last frame: 6 inches!
comment image

Snowhater’s gonna hate.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Bring it brother!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Dream on………………it will rain after early morning.

Adam
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Adam

NAM is the $ model this year isn’t it? Been waiting on the NAM to make early plans.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Seds, where ya been my friend?

Michael Garner
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Michael Garner

When is this storm supposed to make it to the west coast?

Clint
Guest
Clint

Tomorrow night I think.

sedsinkc
Guest
sedsinkc
Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Thanks for the link, hadn’t thought of that. Looks like full roll-out of the FV3 will be delayed as well:

“Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said the main impact has been on the National Weather Service’s new global forecast model, which was scheduled to go live in February but will surely be delayed because of the shutdown.”

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

They should contact Gary and use the LRC, then their data will be more accurate!

FDRLincoln
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FDRLincoln

I’m really curious what this storm will look like in March and May.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

It won’t happen in May. Early March, late-mid April, early June. Probably a snowstorm, a ???, and a severe weather event.

A bit more interesting are those few days in early December with light snow. Those few days (December 3-6) repeat around April 29-May 2. Could we be looking at another 2013?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

That was a 100+ year event. Very unlikely. This is going to be an above to much above normal temperature spring. Certainly nothing like last April, either.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

One could argue that both of us are wishcasting in the above replies.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

If the “above to much above average temps in spring” thing is true, I’m gonna throw up. We had such a hot summer last year. If we have another blazing inferno June-the end of August, I’m just gonna sit in a tub of ice for 4 months.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Hmm..not sure how i feel about this with the game. Too bad we won’t have the weather like last weekend. Yes the interest with this storm is especially high with huge game to thrown in the mix.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I see Gary beat me to the punch, lol. I sure hope this doesn’t take place during the chiefs game.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Euro trended in snowlovers favor.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Rush2112 ,

Thank you much appreciated.

j-ox
Guest
j-ox

…and the meek shall inherit the Earth.

RickMcKC
Guest
RickMcKC

One thing that can be said for sure at this point … the trend (modelwise) is towards snow and not away from it.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019010812&fh=132&r=us_c&dpdt=

Note the lower totals than a 10:1 ratio based on Kuchera calcs. Just too warm at the surface to get those higher numbers in the other maps that are posted above.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

12z January 8:

GFS: 3-5 inches, more southeast.
FV3: 3-6+ inches, more southeast
CMC: 5-ish inches evenly spread, slightly less northeast

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

My concern again is with the temperatures as well. I mean we lost 2″ of snowfall potential during the blizzard due to warm temperatures as the precip was changing from rain to sleet to snow. Given the fact we’ve been 10-30 degrees above average several days now, ground temps are warm. If the temperature is 31-38 like another blogger mentioned – even if 6″ of snow falls, we will be lucky to have 2″ stick, even if it’s coming down at a 3″/hour intensity.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Thinking at this stage this is a classic early morning snow changing to rain during the day event. Temps should be in the mid-upper 30s Saturday afternoon.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

UGHHHHH. Where is winter?! It feels more like spring out! And then once it’s spring it’s gonna immediately jump into the 90s with 100% humidity. LOL.

Fred
Guest
Fred

I think it is prudent for all of us to believe each model run from here on out…since they are always so consistent in the placement of temperatures and precipitation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this thing go poof, then come back, then go poof again, and we end up with a mixed bag of precipitation. It may be related to the November 25th snow, which is super cool, but it may also be the ‘same but different’ this time through. But, one thing is for sure…watching the roller coaster of emotions on this blog is going to be… Read more »

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

If the worst case happens at least it is on the weekend. I hate snow because I have to navigate through it during both rush hours.

Skyspy
Guest
Skyspy

Entertaining isn’t it!!

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

LMAO…let’s see what 12z Euro has to say in a couple hrs

WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

6-10 widespread!

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Zero point zero chance of that…………

Skyspy
Guest
Skyspy

Absolutely agree!!!!

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

do you “sure as hell” disagree? lol

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

“I will say this again, it is the storm that ended an almost five year stretch where every single snowstorm produced under 3″ until November 25th.”

Clint
Guest
Shelby Franklin
Guest
Shelby Franklin

With the forecasted low of only 31 Sat morning and a high of 37 on Saturday, it will be hard pressed for any of this to stick. And not to mention the rain eating at the snow totals. Not putting much faith in this one.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

We all know it’s probably going to poof, so why not have fun while we can?

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

It won’t “poof”

Skyspy
Guest
Skyspy

It may not poof completely, we’ll get some, we’re sure as hell not getting 4′-6″ or “6-10 widespread”. Poor folks just never learn.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

you sure say “sure as hell” a lot.

MMike
Guest
MMike

Skyspy,

You may very well be right with this one…however, you same folks said this last go around with the blizzard. “It won’t snow more then a couple of inches and we won’t have a blizzard” Had 6+ inches around town….

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Skyspy,

I agree, some never learn. With that said, I was simply stating I do not believe this will poor and more to my thinking, I believe some on here will be surprised by the result. I have expected this system for quite some time and while there will be a seasonal twist, it is still a strong system.

MMike … remember what I wrote to you?

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Big papa poof will arrive later this week……………..:)

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Oh god…not big papa.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Temps might change, and honestly probably will change between now and Saturday.