A Storm Is Beginning To Show Up On The Models

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Good morning bloggers,

The cycling pattern, the LRC,is right on schedule today and what happens in the next few days will be quite important for the weather forecast this weekend. The Kansas City Chiefs host a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium Saturday afternoon at 3:30 PM, and suddenly some of the models have snow and rain near Kansas City as you can see in today’s analysis.  The Indianapolis Colts are heading to the middle of the nation, the heartland and weather very well may be an impact on game day.  There are still uncertainties as many of you likely realize that nothing was showing up on most of the models as of yesterday morning.  There is a trend towards a potential storm system, as the part of the pattern that produced Kansas City’s first three inch snow storm in almost five years cycles back through.  Let’s begin with a picture I took as the airplane I was in was descending into the New York City area.  These are called crepuscular rays:

IMG_6588

In Kansas City this morning it warmed almost all the way up to 60 degrees.  It was 58° as I was writing the blog this morning at 5 AM:

Screen Shot 2019-01-07 at 6.00.30 AM

The wind was gusting to 32 mph with the dew point temperature up to 54°.  0.05″ of rain fell while you were sleeping, and now this system is zipping along and heading to where I am in NYC.  I am going to a wedding this evening, and I let my brother know that it will be dry with almost no wind for the wedding this afternoon, then rain likely later tonight.  Back in KC, we will begin anticipating this developing pattern as you can see on this next map:

2

A rather big split in the pattern is developing near the west coast this week. The conditions are becoming favorable for a storm system to develop near KC in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  On the map above, a trough at 500 mb is forecast to form east of the Rocky Mountains.  The 500 mb level is around 18,000 feet up above the surface, and this storm is now predicted to become strong enough to produce these conditions at the surface as seen below:

3

This forecast map above shows a cold front strengthening near KC with snow developing from the USA/Canada border southwest to Kansas City on Saturday morning.  Heavy thunderstorms are modeled farther south near a developing surface storm.  There is a trend in this direction, and look at what this latest model that came out overnight is showing on snowfall potential:

1

Do you know what is fascinating? I was discussing this with Jeff Penner yesterday on my way to NYC while he was in between shows on Sunday morning.  We went back and looked at our discussion in the blog LRC Cycle ago, and he wrote the blog that day, and nothing was showing up for the blizzard at that point, and we discussed how fascinating the LRC truly is, and the insight it provides.  In his blog entry on the Sunday before Thanksgiving, he was discussing how nice the weather would be through the next Sunday. We hadn’t experienced that part fo the LRC yet.  And, just a couple of days later, the “blizzard” began showing up.  So, hang on.  We are still going to get this cycles version of the pattern, and as I predicted a long time ago, I favor something ranging from a cold front to a major blizzard, leaning towards something in the middle, and something in the middle just showed up.  Now, let’s see how this trends.

That’s it for now. I just wanted to share this development with you, and we appreciate your sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation as we all learn together.  Have a great day.

Gary

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ClassyCatStl78(winon,mn)rush2112Mike (OP)Bsmike Recent comment authors
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Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Commendable rush!

rush2112
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rush2112

That was me, I acknowledged their success New Years night at about halftime. I was wrong and if they return a lot of their guys they’ll be pretty good next fall.

Bsmike
Guest
Bsmike

Can’t remember who was talking crap to me about GA whipping Texas but all I here is 🦗 🦗 🦗 🦗 now.

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)

The best team isn’t even in the playoffs…..The Ohio State Buckeyes!!!

ClassyCat
Guest
ClassyCat

And neither is that lying classless coach either.

Emaw
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Emaw

6-10″.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

50% chance of being right Michael!

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

From Sunday the 7 day forecast showed 56 and sunny on Friday (at least according the KSHB website), to now 37, cloudy and chance of some sort of precipitation. That’s a big a change, another reason to not get to excited one way or another on a forecast 6 days out, especially in the winter in KC. This general area has to be such a nightmare at times when it comes to predicting what Mother Nature is going to look like more than 4 days out. Glad it isn’t my job, even if I do enjoy learning about it, just… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

51 low again WED AM? Wow!

Matt
Guest
Matt

Let the lows stay that and bring that Rain here.

thetophat
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thetophat

January blowtorch. Watch as it RAINS this weekend.

Joe
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Joe

Take that (rain) to the bank. STL will get hammered with snow

JoeK
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JoeK

Joe,

Your bank account must be at a deficit because you said that the last time we did get snow. This system should not be all rain. I believe there will be a mix and some in our region will get 3-6 inches

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Where are you seeing that?

Michael Garner
Guest
Michael Garner

Refreshing the comment of “51 low Wednesday morning”

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

http://mediaassets.kshb.com/weatherimages/2018_7_day_forecast.jpg

Their days are messed up so add +1 to the actual day. Bug they have had on this 7 day graphic for years.

Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image GFS 18z for Saturday as of now . We know it will shift show so hang on for the ride.

Terry
Guest
Terry
Kurt
Guest
Kurt

Maybe this will be like the New Years Even and jog northwest? I just don’t have a feeling like this is lining up like the December blizzard. I don’t even know what seasonal or cycle influences are changing the track of this system, is there a feature in the north central plains that dictates the strength an position of the longterm trough? It seems that the trough or system in the southern branch are having a hard time progress north, then may start northeast but get turned south and east away from our area. At least we’ve had decent rains,… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

This upcoming storm is the beginning of cycle 3. Hopefully it’s a flip back to cold.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

18z GFS is still coming in but it looks like it shows the snow setting up slightly farther south and a bit weaker.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

3 inches, more southeast/less northwest.

Becca
Guest
Becca

FV3- 6 inches
GFS- 4 inches
Canadian- 2 inches
Euro- all east
Gary, again the models seem to be having a hard time. Is the ridge that is supposed to develop East of the Rockies the reason the models are pushing the heaviest snow East? Did this ridge not exist in the first cycle? In the first cycle all the models had the snow North. Just trying to figure out the “differences” this time around.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Euro has an inch downtown, less west, more east.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

please tell us your thoughts Gary, after the new data rolls out

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc

A suggestion for folks posting model data … you can narrow down on our region and get a much more granular picture. Look for the REGIONS button near the bottom left on Tropical Tidbits. Also, the snowfall maps from TT are at 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. That’s OK when temps are 32 or below but this weekend’s system is truly warm for January and the ratios will be lower than 10:1. If you go to the pivotal weather site you can see the temps factored into the ratio by using the Kuchera snowfall ratio. For example: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_acc&rh=2019010712&fh=132&r=us_c&dpdt= Kuchera is… Read more »

Anonymous
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Anonymous

thanks Rick, nice bit of info

Jcling64056
Guest
Jcling64056

The trend from most all of the models is to shift the heavy snow further north, lets see if the trend continues

Paul
Guest
Paul

North towards kc?

Coachshawn
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Coachshawn

I love the Chiefs and have always rooted for them, but you cannot just ignore how bad their defense is. I will continue to root for them this weekend, but I think our chances of winning are pretty suspect they way Luck has been playing.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Defense is better at home this year AND much better when Berry is in directing traffic. The “Indy curse” aside I think Mahomes will put them over the top in this one and it may not be as close as many are predicting.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Problem Is the Colts bring a stiff defense…

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

I echo that. I think this is a bad matchup for kc. Hope I’m an idiot and probably so, but I just don’t believe you can go far with our D. It’s possible the offense can carry you to a SB win, but will be difficult. I think 45 of 52 SB winners had a D in top 15 or top 12……something like that.

Real HumeDude
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Real HumeDude

First of all, Luck isn’t fit cant hold Mahomes cleats this year statistically head to head. Luck is a GREAT QB, but we have an ELITE QB. We have the advantage there albeit small. Luck was top 5 QB before hurting his shoulder, but we have in all honesty the BEST QB in the league. Defensively, the Colts have an average Defense. They have a terrific LB in Leonard, but everyone else is rather average including their defensive line and D-backs. Our D is nothing to write home about but at home we are much better and I would say… Read more »

Coachshawn
Guest
Coachshawn

Before I continue…I want all of you to be right and I want KC to win, but I think it is fair to point out that Indy’s defense stepped up this past weekend and while you are correct about Mahomes being elite, the Chiefs defense will have to step up this weekend for KC to win.

Brittany
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Brittany

The Colts defense is good but they have never really played many GREAT offenses this season. I still believe that Houston beat themselves rather than Indy beating them, per se. Watson is a good QB but I don’t think he was ready for post season. In terms of QB’s, Luck is no Manning, but he’s still VERY good. Not to mention a super classy and likable guy, IMO. But in terms of performance this year, Mahomes beats him out by a mile. And I think Indy’s defense will have a really hard time trying to contain all our O guys.… Read more »

Terry Wartell
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Terry Wartell

We moved to Belton Mo from Tucson AZ almost 5years ago we go back to Tucson for the holidays every year. I’ve seen more snow in and around Tucson in the last 5 years than I’ve ever seen here! I just hope Gary is right…

ClassyCat
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ClassyCat

Stick around. It can get snowy here.

Brittany
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Brittany

We drove to Phoenix this year for Christmas and went through Payson and holy moly! It was pretty snowy. Then on the way back we went through Tucson. It’s so pretty there!

Then through New Mexico (specifically 54 between Alamogordo and Carrizozo) we got stuck in a HUGE blizzard! They reported on the Albuquerque news that Ruidoso got 23 inches of snow!

Brittany
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Brittany

*does a passionate snow dance*

Bsmike
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Bsmike

Cowboys vs Chiefs 🤘🏼

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

I think a really nifty blog post by Gary would be to see how the Chiefs have done on day when they played in snow at Arrowhead.

Brad
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Brad

New euro is out, heaviest snows off to the east into central missouri while kc is on the edge

comment image

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)
Jason
Guest
Jason

Cold, flurries and some wind lead to a Chiefs 38-35 win.

Clint
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Clint
NoBeachHere
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NoBeachHere

I don’t really look and watch models unless I got a good idea as to when our linebackers are calling the play at the line of scrimmage. That being and I’ve said a few times already, possible late snows with, maybe, if the blocking unit gets on the field, but moisture will be good. Remember life jackets and blue tarps.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

BRING IT ON!!!! WOOT!!!! Snow Miser….do your thing buddy! 😉

Skyspy
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Skyspy

Rain, maybe some snow mixed in but sure as hell not 4″.

Matt
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Matt

9 in Southeastern MO.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)
Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Houston, we have snow:
comment image

Just in time for the Chief’s game, too!

Skyspy
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Skyspy

Don’t see how a low progged to be in s. Ark.-n. Miss can possibly produce snow up here. Too far south, too warm here, maybe some rain but sure as hell not 4″ of snow.

Dustin TheWind
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Dustin TheWind
Michael Casteel
Guest
Michael Casteel

I recorded .04 inches of rain this morning up in Maryville. clouds cleared away now the sun is shining beautifully have a great day bloggers!
Michael

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

I for one am enjoying our thaw up here. They issued a thin ice warning on Fri for many lakes and rivers. Believe or not I did see a truck out on the ice Fri. Not real bright.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

We are all model addicts anyway, am I wrong? I know I am not the only one that starts their day by watching the overnight runs. Especially when its dry, then I am watching for the faintest hint of rain. This has been the wettest winter I can remember in long time, we my be in wrong spot for winterstorms and snow but this IS great spot for plain old rain which is fine by me! Even Keith Urbanity has gotten plenty of rain, although he wants to argue this is bad KS pattern because he hasn’t gotten much snow… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Soon it will begin…blog-wide model addiction!

Rickmckc
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Rickmckc
Rickmckc
Guest
Rickmckc

However, looks like the temps will be above freezing. El Nino really affecting temps this winter.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

No models showing any snow for 95% of Kansas at the moment all the way through Jan 23rd. The perma-trough location that Gary drew on a map several weeks ago seems to be holding in place as storms develop south and east of Kansas.

I feel those old familiar feelings welling up inside of me, “it’s going to be cold, it’s going to be dry, and it’s going to last us for the rest of our winters”.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

yeah, we know…that sky is falling.

MMike
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MMike

Hello Urbanity,

Total precip. Salina, to Wichita, to Topeka into KC has been above average since early October. Salina is well above average according to the NWS for the last 3 months. Multiple storms have hit both states each month for the last 3 months. This pattern is far different from last Oct-Dec. So, your post doesn’t match the facts. Maybe I’m not understanding your post??

Urbanity
Guest
Urbanity

From Oct 10 til end of month zero precip (it’s rained abundantly the last three years during Oct 5-9 so cannot count that transition period in the new LRC). In November, no single moisture total above .30″, total for month roughly .85 on 3 separate events. December, we got a decent rain on the 1st, .75, then a bigger rain around Christmas 1.3″. So yes, I get where you are coming from, there has been some moisture, but I’m more or less talking about snow storms….it is winter. Don’t everyone get their panties in a bunch, the sky is not… Read more »

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

My crocuses are starting to poke up through the ground.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

poor things are doomed…cold air and snow coming…too much winter left

Gerald Beebe
Guest
Gerald Beebe

Hi Gary, I’m a GA pilot and wondered if the airport in your picture was JFK? Great photo, thanks for sharing.

Clint
Guest
Clint

I can’t think of a better set up for the Chiefs than to have a dome team coming in to play in the snow.

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

It will rain.

Clint
Guest
Clint

Either way its a huge advantage for the Chiefs!

Jim
Guest
Jim

The Colts have the advantage in a weather game. They have a big and physical offensive line and we don’t stop the run well. Clear skies favor the Chiefs.

Brittany
Guest
Brittany

Lol how do they have an advantage in a weather affected game? They play in a dome. Lucas Oil is an INDOOR DOMED STADIUM.

Their O-line is good, but not the best we’ve played this season.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I think he means because they are going to be able to run the ball on the Chiefs D at will, while it might be a little bit more work for Chiefs to run the ball on a much better Colts D.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

The blowtorch is here and alive. 60s in the throws of January??

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

Let’s keep it going right through spring! Honestly, though, there will be a shot or two of winter. There has to be. It is just comforting to know the 2009-10 snow totals won’t nearly happen…………

Mr. Fiffels
Guest
Mr. Fiffels

At the same time, you talk extensively about models. Yet, I recall a blog entry just a few days ago where you cautioned against modelitis. This blog is overflowing with entries that pick the biggest outlier because it produces the biggest storm (classic wishcasting). I would ask that you provide more model guidance on what is the correct ones to be paying attention to.

Makes for great drama, but very little for actual forecasting. Just my opinion. Not trying to pour water on anyone’s fun.

Mr. Fiffels
Guest
Mr. Fiffels

All of your competitors locally are predicting no precipitation for this weekend and no storm. In fact, your station’s morning show is also precdicting exactly that – nothing.

At what point do you bring this into your newscasts? I would surmise that less than 1000 people read this blog daily. That’s a pretty small part of the metro population. It’s tough to get the word out on your theory if you don’t televise it.

As far as anyone watching the morning news (doesn’t matter which station), the Chiefs game will have no weather issues.

Clint
Guest
Clint

The 6z FV3 looks even better!

Clint
Guest
Clint

FIRST!!!