Good morning bloggers,
The cycling pattern, the LRC,is right on schedule today and what happens in the next few days will be quite important for the weather forecast this weekend. The Kansas City Chiefs host a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium Saturday afternoon at 3:30 PM, and suddenly some of the models have snow and rain near Kansas City as you can see in today’s analysis. The Indianapolis Colts are heading to the middle of the nation, the heartland and weather very well may be an impact on game day. There are still uncertainties as many of you likely realize that nothing was showing up on most of the models as of yesterday morning. There is a trend towards a potential storm system, as the part of the pattern that produced Kansas City’s first three inch snow storm in almost five years cycles back through. Let’s begin with a picture I took as the airplane I was in was descending into the New York City area. These are called crepuscular rays:
In Kansas City this morning it warmed almost all the way up to 60 degrees. It was 58° as I was writing the blog this morning at 5 AM:
The wind was gusting to 32 mph with the dew point temperature up to 54°. 0.05″ of rain fell while you were sleeping, and now this system is zipping along and heading to where I am in NYC. I am going to a wedding this evening, and I let my brother know that it will be dry with almost no wind for the wedding this afternoon, then rain likely later tonight. Back in KC, we will begin anticipating this developing pattern as you can see on this next map:
A rather big split in the pattern is developing near the west coast this week. The conditions are becoming favorable for a storm system to develop near KC in the upper levels of the atmosphere. On the map above, a trough at 500 mb is forecast to form east of the Rocky Mountains. The 500 mb level is around 18,000 feet up above the surface, and this storm is now predicted to become strong enough to produce these conditions at the surface as seen below:
This forecast map above shows a cold front strengthening near KC with snow developing from the USA/Canada border southwest to Kansas City on Saturday morning. Heavy thunderstorms are modeled farther south near a developing surface storm. There is a trend in this direction, and look at what this latest model that came out overnight is showing on snowfall potential:
Do you know what is fascinating? I was discussing this with Jeff Penner yesterday on my way to NYC while he was in between shows on Sunday morning. We went back and looked at our discussion in the blog LRC Cycle ago, and he wrote the blog that day, and nothing was showing up for the blizzard at that point, and we discussed how fascinating the LRC truly is, and the insight it provides. In his blog entry on the Sunday before Thanksgiving, he was discussing how nice the weather would be through the next Sunday. We hadn’t experienced that part fo the LRC yet. And, just a couple of days later, the “blizzard” began showing up. So, hang on. We are still going to get this cycles version of the pattern, and as I predicted a long time ago, I favor something ranging from a cold front to a major blizzard, leaning towards something in the middle, and something in the middle just showed up. Now, let’s see how this trends.
That’s it for now. I just wanted to share this development with you, and we appreciate your sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation as we all learn together. Have a great day.