A Big Warm-Up This Weekend

Good morning bloggers,

There will be a big weekend warm up across the plains, and there is a chance of some snow melting cooled air approaching from the south on Sunday.  Around 5″ of snow fell in Oklahoma City yesterday.  Who is jealous of this:

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In KC, we have had 0.5″ of snow since the blizzard on November 25th.  This storm is one that I was hoping would have been a bit larger scale  in this cycle, and it was not, as it ended up tracking south just like in the last cycle. The next storm in line is on Monday, and that one may develop a band of rain as it zips east. I will be flying to NYC for my nephews wedding Sunday night, and that same system will b a bit wetter by the time it zips into the northeastern USA Monday night and Tuesday.  And, then, the storm following that one is the part of the cycling pattern that produced a huge warm up and blizzard in KC.  What will happen this time? Some of the models last night had a blizzard, while others just have a strong cold front. Let’s see how they trend. If you remember…..the blizzard didn’t come into focus until a day or two before. So, hang on for the ride.

Here are two models that came in  overnight. The first is the European Model, that has had nothing until now, and the second is the Canadian model, which also had nothing until now:

f5weather-15

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35

And, this just in on what has been almost the LRC model, as it has done quite well at times, the ICON model:
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This is an exact replica of the blizzard from November. Wow! Now, remember bloggers, we are still going to get this cycles version, and it could still be anywhere from a strong cold front to this massive solution.

Have a great day!

Gary

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snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Models status: (haven’t typed that in a while!)

GFS: nothing (yet)
FV3: 12z and 18z runs both have ~3 inches, with an area of more to the northeast.
CMC: 12z has dusting.
ICON: Can’t reach that far yet. Wait another day or two.

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Why is anyone expecting this storm to track EXACTLY like the last cycle?
They almost NEVER track identically one cycle to the next, this will have the seasonal twist, come on guys you know it’s never the exact same cycle to cycle. You rookies or what?
LRC has spoken!!
It’s a warm El Nino winter, with plenty of rain and just a dash of occasional snow. That’s what winter has been, and so it shall be according to LRC

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol…we are doomed to no snow hysteria already? LoL True we dont know how that storm will track….we actually got the edge of it with the last blizzard, not that much quantity of snow….this could track in an even better position and give us a bigger snow too. And this winter has been nothing like the last four winters…so much snow and rain its been awesome, although some it technically happened early…in the fall.

Johnny
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Johnny

Eh, Gfs had the oklahoma storm pounding us 5-6 days before, only a matter of time it catches on and trends south

Becca
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Becca

The Euro, Canadian, and the ICON handled the blizzard pretty well in November. The GFS and the new GFS were way north the whole time. If I remember right even a day out the GFS was terrible. Impossible to tell this early. I also remember all the models trending North and it wasn’t until several hours prior that the blizzard warnings were extended farther south. I live at 143rd and Pflumm and we were only supposed to get 2 inches as most was supposed to fall as rain. Well we got 6-7 inches of snow, more than KCI. Just saying.… Read more »

Clint
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Clint

Spot on Becca. I found the 12z ICON run today to be amazing!

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

How is the new euro looking, I haven’t looked yet??

Terry
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Terry

We’re still gonna have many different solutions between the model runs for next weekend storm as we saw the last time when it came through in November.

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Way too early to look at models they will change a million times before then until then trust in the lrc.

Supercell
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Supercell

12z FV3 trended north and is more in line with GFS now for next Saturday. Something drastic will have to change to put us in sweet spot for next weekend otherwise we are looking at just a cold front sweeping by. At end of day, this may be good for Chiefs. As much as I would like to have a good storm, I’d rather Mahomes have good weather to move the football.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

This happened in November too. Wait…

Dustin TheWind
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Dustin TheWind

8 days out, I would rely more on the LRC than on specific models. We were in the bullseye the last cycle; hard to believe we will be completely missed this time around. Especially when the interim systems have trended similar to last cycle. This far out, given what happened with this storm last cycle, we should all be excited (or whatever emotion a winter storm might elicit in you) about the simple fact that all the models seem to agree there is going to be a storm next weekend. Just my two cents.

MMike
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MMike

Those indexes are important, as per my notes, these same indexes 3-4 weeks ago were forecasting very warm conditions for the second half of Dec. and first half of Jan…those forecasts were right on the money. No one can deny that we have been warm for this time of year and the next 7-10 days stay relatively warm compared to averages.

Like Gary says, we NEED BLOCKING..the seeds are being planted, winter will be back!!!

MMike
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MMike

Dang it, the GFS is still quite progressive with this pattern on the latest 12z run. Not much of storm on this data set for next weekend. Not much cold in the pattern either. Zonal flow baby! (EMAW) Now, the EPO/AO/NAO/MJO indexes show a colder trend in their latest forecasts. EURO weeklies from yesterday came in quite cold for the country also(I mean quite cold for later this month into Feb), starting later next week. Let’s see if the models start picking up on this. It’s hard to break a cold pattern and just as hard to break a warm… Read more »

Jason
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Jason

Would sure make the Chiefs game a mess and not sure what that would do with our potent passing attack. I love snow, but would prefer it come on Friday or Sunday due to the game.

MMike
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MMike

“be anywhere from a strong cold front to this massive solution”

This helps me prepare as the impacts are so similar.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Lol!

Lubbtor
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Lubbtor

What a waste of time for Dr. Droegemeier. Guarantee, “Bigly” doesn’t know anything about science nor does he care. If it does not benefit him personally or make him look good (hard if not impossible to make him look good) he does not care.

Fred Souder
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Fred Souder

Gary,
Did you see that the President finally got a formal science advisor? It is Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier from OU! Were you there when he was teaching meteorology?

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

Very surprised DT didn’t nominate himself as Science advisor. He’s got a good brain, and he’s had a LOT of thoughts over the years. Although he chooses not to read or endure those boring daily intelligence briefings all those other dumb presidents did, He does consult with himself regularly which is a relief. He woulda have made a fantastic General by his own account.

Kurt
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Kurt

Wow, was that necessary? Even if you don’t like someone’s actions, why can’t you try to be better and overlook instead of going low like that?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

TDS

Joek
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Joek

Hume… just a friendly reminder, this is a “ weather blog” . I know you like your politics and we all do very much love to hear your fanatical rants😜

Johnny
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Johnny

This will forever be known as the “Chiefs blizzard” it is the only thing the chiefs haven’t endured during their brutal playoff luck. Maybe this will flip the fortunes..

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I’m starting to worry about a frz rain event up here for Mon. Nam showing 0.17 for me with about 2 in of snow. It’s the kids first day back to school too.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

Blizzard 2.0 incoming

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Interesting. FV3 has a weird snow-rain-snow thing with huge variation in totals across the area now. One week out! The countdown begins…here comes the modelitis.

Kathy
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Kathy

I have thoroughly enjoyed this blog lately with the trolls gone as well. I even enjoy Chiefs banter, because I am a huge fan. I am not, however, jealous of the snow in Oklahoma City. They can have it. But I do believe that we haven’t seen the worst of this winter and that this is the calm before the storm. I’ll be watching this blog closely to see updates about the Chief’s storm (is it okay to call it that?) . Thanks, everyone, for helping me learn about the weather!!!

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

It’s all in good fun. Like I said the other day, I’d take this silly game over the trolls any day. Have a nice trip Gary!

Jason
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Jason

Although silly, I totally agree! Nothing wrong with being lighthearted and having a little fun

Clint
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Clint

Gary, have the tinkered with the FV3-GFS it has been very consistent lately and with the Chiefs storm.

Three7s
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Three7s

I’m fairly confident that this storm will produce something. The main twist that has been the issue with this cycle is the warmer temperatures. I don’t know if this will be snow or rain yet, but I’m 99.9% sure this storm will produce something more than just a cold front.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

Ok that was my last “first”. Lol. Looking like a nice warm up up this way. May crack 40😁

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

First