Good morning bloggers,

This current storm system is tracking across the southern plains this morning. And, in this picture below, you can tell that it was over the desert southwest yesterday.  This is just east of Tucson, Arizona. A rare sight in the desert.

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This storm is now tracking into Oklahoma, and the forecast for them is quite difficult. Take a look at these two maps:

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The storm will spin over the Red River Valley today and then track to over Arkansas on Friday.  Kansas City will have almost no effect from this storm and the snow will change over to mostly rain by morning.  El Niño is having an impact on these storm systems and this winter.

6:15 AM Radar:

An area of heavy snow was just southwest of OKC.  Some spots across the southwestern half of Oklahoma may get 6 to 12 inches of snow as the storm spins overhead.

Screen Shot 2019-01-03 at 6.08.11 AM

Looking ahead, the models are, as should be expected all over the place on the storm for the end of next week. It is an important storm, as it is the part of the cycle that brought us the blizzard, and the Chiefs play on the 12th in a big game at Arrowhead. As I said yesterday, it could be anywhere from just a strong cold front moving through late next week all the way up to a major snowstorm. And, the models have been showing all of these possible solutions.

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What is this? This is the FV3-GFS model, and it has had a solution similar to this one four model runs in a row.  It makes sense that the models will have a very difficult time with this part of the cycling pattern, and this storm. This FV3-GFS model which is being worked on to become the operational GFS model sometime in 2019 certainly is eye candy for us weather enthusiasts.  Now, I don’t like the date up there, as this would be bad timing for the Chiefs home playoff game. Let’s see if the other models trend in this direction.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

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Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

U probably right Johny! Warmed up to 38 today and the south facing yards now have grass showing. Hard to believe how warm it has been up here thus far this winter. We’ve had about 15 inches of snow but like u guys most was around Thanksgiving. Looking like Mon we will be on that rain/snow line once again.

Johnny
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Johnny

Since the chiefs have a home playoff game we are getting snow storm. Book it

Dave from Shawnee
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Dave from Shawnee

Gary and his team predicted today’s storm that is hitting Oklahoma with snow, and they predicted it well over a week ago, probably a lot earlier. Anyway, he predicted it would be near KC and in meteorological terms, north-central Oklahoma is near KC (just look at a globe folks). I’m a scientist in a different field and predicting the future is something scientists try to do all the time. It isn’t easy and Gary’s predictions are spot-on! Some folks forget that the LRC (or any met model) isn’t useful for predicting the exact weather for any one point on the… Read more »

Clint
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Clint

Things I wrote down about this storm in the last cycle. 1) It was a strong vort that strengthened as it was going by and closed off soon after it passed. 2)The models trended south all the way up to the storms arrival. Two rows of counties were added to the southern edge of the blizzard warning. 3) As the storm approached the Euro and NAM did better than the other models and even they were just a hair to far north. 4) The storm started off with about 30 min to 1 hour worth of heavy sleet.

Ray
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Ray

This is about the most commical thing I have ever read in my life. I’m sorry but this is just to funny. Things are setting up exactly perfect even though it’s kinda different but kinda the same. You missed your calling my friend you should of been a politican. Say everything but what you want to say so you can cover all angles. Too funny!!!

Rodney
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Rodney

Gary: The storm that is lining up around Jan 12-13th what are your early thoughts on chances of it going further south vs north based on the pattern in cycle 2? Seems like where I’m at in central MO we’ve been right on the edge of the rain snow line with the recent runs of the FV3-GFS. November was a good month for Boone County & I’m still sitting at 8.3” of snow & patiently waiting for more snow. Thanks

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

REAL HUMEDUDE
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REAL HUMEDUDE

12Z considerably backs off next weekend storm. Plenty of rain again, but snow looking very suspect. We are yet to experience a single Arctic blast, and I am am loving it! Hoping to catch a few fish over the weekend, beats the heck outta being stuck inside with miserable cold all winter. I LOVE winters where I can fish!!!

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Oh and to your mention of “professional” athelets. I would hardly call them professional. Some most certainly are but many of them are large overpaid children.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I understand your pt and I do agree with u. I guess my point is if it were me personally, I would wait till the season is over. I wouldn’t want to do anything that may possibly affect the outcome in any manner. Either way I hope u guys don’t lose him! He is in an opportunity of a life time with Reid as a mentor and mahomes under center. Just imagine what he could do to his resume with a sb ring and a couple of playoffs runs. Time will tell. Good luck to u guys!

Anonymous
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Anonymous

These are professional athletes. They will all have a time where they become free agents and make decisions that are best for themselves and their own families. They understand it’s a business. This isn’t getting in to players’ heads. No one is being betrayed.
And there are 8 teams are looking to hire head coaches that can’t feasibly wait until everyone’s season is over to research the candidates. If one decides they would like to hire him, then they will wait until his season is complete to hire him.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

It doesn’t matter to me that it takes place on an off day but rather during their playoff run in general. U don’t think it gets into the players head before their big game. I would beg the differ. I just don’t see the harm in waiting a couple of wks vs right fit at the onset of the playoffs. Just my two cents

Adam
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Adam

If an opportunity is there I wouldn’t wait until a project was over. Sometimes you can’t. Problem with anything like sports is it becomes public quickly. I don’t have to worry about that in my area.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Gary what happened the arctic blast near the end of 18 and early 19? We’ve have a few cold days but no real arctic blasts.

Weatherjaded
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Weatherjaded

The entire team had Monday and Tuesday off. That is when he completed those interviews.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Do models have a “learning from past mistakes” capability? If so, I guess that’s what the FV3 is doing. (it had to repeatedly shift the storm south in November, now it’s south from the beginning)

MMike
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MMike

Stl78, 100 percent agree my friend. It’s so funny how most coaches and players often mention family every time they talk about their team. “We’re family, we stick together” “I would do anything for that guy” ….then, during a playoff run, they interview for another job. What do you say, “hey guys, I have an interview with a different team today, you guys work hard, i’ll be back, you guys are my family, my brothers” kind of weird. I agree with you, wait until your business is done with this family before you sell us out for a new family.… Read more »

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I just read that it’s 4 teams that r interested. I still think this is an unnecessary distraction that can and should wait till seasons end. Either way I’m sure he plays an important role in the offense and game planning and as a 10 yr resident of the Smithville/liberty area I would hate to see him leave. Though I’m not a chiefs fan I pull for them often and hope them the best. Good luck!

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

If I recall doesn’t Reid still call the plays though?

Clint
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Clint

Yes and he mentors over them

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

I hope u guys don’t lose your oc to the Jets or bucs! Im surprised he’s interviewing while in the midst of a playoff run. Unprofessional IMHO. At least wait till after the season.

Clint
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Clint

Actually this is very common and each of our last 2 OC did the same before taking jobs at Philly and Chicago.

Mike Holm
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I would love to see a snow game at arrowhead.

Mr. Fiffels
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Mr. Fiffels

60s in January? Love it!

Will get a couple more cords of wood cut and split.

Skyspy
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Skyspy

Glad it’s down there and we have beautiful warmer weather to look forward to this wknd