A Look Into What Created The Blizzard Conditions In November

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Good morning bloggers,

2018 Stats

As you can see above, Kansas City’s highest temperature in 2018 was 100°, the first 100° day in almost five years.  The lowest temperature was 11° below zero, and that happened on New Year’s Day.  Almost half of the yearly snowfall fell on November 25th and that part of the pattern is about to cycle back through!

Happy New Year!  We hope everyone had a great holiday.  A storm will be tracking due south of Kansas City and too far away to have much of an impact our area.  So, today we will discuss the conditions that helped create the first 3″ snowstorm in almost five full years. This happened back in November, and if you remember, the pattern had a huge warm up ahead of this storm system.  These maps below show the pattern just before, during, and just after Kansas City had 5.8″ of snow at KCI Airport and near blizzard conditions.  The part of the cycling pattern that produced these conditions will cycle back through within two weeks.  Will the exact same thing happen? The answer is likely not, and yet not out of the question, however.  There are many possibilities ranging from just a cold front and dry, to an even larger storm system.  I will lean in the direction of something between these two extremes.  Take a look at the last cycle:

LRC Cycle 1_2 2018

The top left maps shows a ridge, that helped create the 62 degree day on that Saturday after Thanksgiving, and the series of waves coming into the west coast.   The waves organized into a strong jet streak over Oregon, and this allowed the storm to dig into southwest Kansas before lifting out into the Ohio River Valley the next day.  Will a similar situation happen, or will it dig more or less? Will it have more energy, and will there be any blocking, as there was no blocking when this first storm happened?  There are other questions as well, and for now we just know one thing for certain. This part of the pattern is going to cycle back through, and this actually was the beginning of around a two week stretch with more storm systems.  This means there will be some exciting days ahead of us as we progress through winter.  Some of the models have been indicating this part of the pattern is right on schedule for around the 12th weekend.  The Kansas City Chiefs host a playoff game on January 12th. There will be a big warm up just ahead of the storm, and then we will see how the pattern lines up in this LRC cycle.

Today’s Weather:

A storm is tracking out of the southwestern United States and heading across north Texas today.   Most of the advisories are begin affected by this storm, including cold on the back side as Las Vegas has a Hard Freeze Warning in effect.  In Kansas City, there may again be few snow flurries or some light freezing drizzle this morning, and then the weather will improve Thursday and through the weekend before we begin anticipating a stormier part of the pattern in around ten days.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 5.25.10 AM

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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Supercell
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Supercell

00z GFS moves low for next saturday’s storm about 150 miles further south than 18z run but still a Nebraska, Northern Iowa, Southern Minnesota snow storm. FV3 has much further south on 18z run so will be interesting to see how they line up after FV3 loads 00z run. Still a looong way out. Interesting side note the FV3 and GFS rarely agree. I would think since the FV3 is the new improved GFS it would be closer in alignment with a few subtle differences but I find that’s rarely the case.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Agree 18z GFS shows the cycle well – El Nino infiltration.

Terry
Guest
Terry
Ryan
Guest
Ryan

18z GFS came to its senses

Terry
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Terry

comment image FV3 GFS 18z storm for January 12th looks good

Lrcfan1
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Lrcfan1

Many accidents from ice in the Oklahoma city reported by media in Oklahoma city.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

I cut several large cedars and made 8′ posts, so now I need to dig post holes.
The soil temperatures look good for that.
http://mesonet.k-state.edu/agriculture/soiltemp/

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Thankfully, we stayed dry during that last bout of rain that hit KC.
It is currently 40° & sunny out west (midway between Manhattan & Marysville).
The 10-day forecast shows the high temperatures for the next 7 days will be in the low 50s, which should get rid of our lingering mud.
That forecast shows our next chance of precipitation is January 11th, when we have a chance of catching <1" of snow, with a 40° high and 25° low.

Johnny
Guest
Johnny

Haha this would also fit in perfect with the chiefs playoff luck. Of course one of the best offenses in NFL history would have to play in a driving snowstorm against a tough, physical team like the ravens. This storm is probably very much reality.

Skyspy
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Skyspy

We don’t know yet that its going to be the Ravens

Johnny
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Johnny

Right, I meant a team like the ravens..honestly i think the colts can beat the texans and it very well may be them

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser

Maybe the fact that it would arrive during a Chief’s playoff games means it’ll actually happen this time. 🙂

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Btw…….29th😉

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

It is silly but it’s all in good fun. I’ll take that over the disrespectful trolls any day!

Terry
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Terry

comment image FV3 GFS 12z this dose fit LRC and this be about when the November 25th blizzard returns I’m I right Gary

Skyspy
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Skyspy

This is the exact same link Dustin posted 30 mins before you. We don’t need it twice.

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

Just don’t look at it again. No need to be hateful.

Clint
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Clint

The FV3 has been good at sniffing out storms, however it has struggled with strength and amounts.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Yes. The FV3 was the first model to have the /idea/ of snow on October 14…but one model run a week before showed 18 inches. lol.

Dustin TheWind
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WeathermanKumke
Guest
WeathermanKumke

I absolutely 100% buy this and I absolutely hate that’s during the chiefs game. Upper level has no protection from the brutal winds.

Skyspy
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Skyspy

Eye candy for sure but again too far out.

JoeK
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JoeK

Not exactly. This is a system I had down to impact KC. Will be curious to see how it plays out, but have confidence in it, for what it is worth. The few weeks following this system should be equally exciting for winter enthusiasts

Nick
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Nick

I think there is the possibility that this cycle is skunks us in terms of snow (even with the blizzard storm) maybe not, but even so, I still think cycle 3 will have plenty of opportunities( also, late winter is known for stronger surface temp. gradients as the sun angle gets higher which can energize big systems like the blizzard cyclone and the two or three other cyclones that brought, rain and 45 to 55 mph wind gusts. So I think we still may have a wild ride ahead of us.

Mike (OP)
Guest
Mike (OP)
Clint
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Clint
Skyspy
Guest
Skyspy

Wrong date, kickoff is one week from this, which is too far out to trust any model.

Terry
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Terry

Lol

Ryan
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Ryan

That would be amazing to watch (on tv of course)! Would probably mitigate the Chiefs advantage passing.

Rodney
Guest
Rodney

Seeing a few isolated snow flakes & snow grains at the moment albeit very light in Jefferson City. Cold/breezy raw day with temps hovering near freezing.

Rodney (Ashland, MO)

Jason
Guest
Jason

I think Mark knows that it means the first comment on the blog. I think the question is why is this a thing? Are we 12? Ahhh it doesn’t matter. People just having a little fun. Better to race to be first, thing be a jerk like the trolls that come out occasionally. Happy New Year all!!!

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Weather is extremely boring for the foreseeable future.

Terry
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Terry

Gary when do you expect the best chance of us having a Winter storm around us In the metro area and And I read yesterday in one of your comments to another Blogger that you do still expect 1 to 2 more major Winter storms for us?

Kurt
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Kurt

Terry, The Blizzard occurred on November 25th, and the storm related to that part of the pattern comes back around Jan. 12th. If this is 1 of the 2 candidates right now it’s not looking like it did in the November cycle (just have to wait and see). If you do the math, then this would come back around March 1st. We also had the storm last Thursday and the New Years Even storms, both very wet. I think it just depends on how much cold air we can get to interact and see if these storms take favorable track.… Read more »

sierravista
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sierravista

Wow…lighten up Mark and Three7s. Happy New Year to you both!

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

The first to comment on the blog mark.

Mark
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Mark

What is this “First” nonsense?

Three7s
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Three7s

The same junk you see on youtube videos. Some people think having the first comment means they achieved something.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

They go into moderation thinking they’re first, and they’re not. A real buzzkill.

Skyspy
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Skyspy

They go into moderation thinking they’re first. And they’re not. A real buzzkill.

Jason
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Jason

Was thinking the same thing. Something my kids would do. Hahaha

Clint
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Clint

Good morning Gary, when will you be making your Chiefs game forecast?

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

4th..lol. Gary, any idea of when the new blog format will go into play and any chance in being able to share photos? Thx

sierravista
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sierravista

I guess not. 😉

Skyspy
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Skyspy

No you weren’t.

sierravista
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sierravista

Wow…I think I’m first! ???

Brian D Gochenour
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Brian D Gochenour

First

Jeff
Guest
Jeff

First