Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on pinterest

Happy New Year,

We hope everyone had a safe New Year’s Eve.  It is a cold start to 2019, and it is far warmer than it was a year ago.  This morning drop to around 15 degrees is 26 degrees warmer than it was a year ago.  Another big warming trend is in the forecast later this week, and the storm that fits the LRC almost perfectly to track south of KC Thursday is doing just that as you can see on this forecast map for Thursday:

2

This map shows the next storm tracking across Texas with the northern edge of the precipitation staying south of Kansas.  We just had another rather wet December storm, and Kansas City had over 3″ of rain in December, and hardly any snow, despite snowflakes falling on many days.  It snowed on 8 different days last month for a whopping total of 0.5″.  And, it has now snowed on 15 days this season already for a total of 8.3″ at KCI Airport.  We are back down to our 1/2″ per day that it snowed.

14

A trend in what direction:

1

The Arctic Oscillation can be argued to showcase when it has been cold, and when it has been warm this season. It may be a good indicator, and it is far from perfect.  The LRC tells us when storm systems are most likely, where they are most likely going to track, and it provides us insight in so many other ways. And, then there are these other influences that must be calculated in.  The AO is just one of those factors, influences. This shows a predicted dip into negative territory in the next two weeks, and this is just an ensemble of models that show a range from one of them that stays positive, and most of them that dip negative.  If this negative dip continues to show up, then there is a good chance it will turn colder in the middle to end of this month.  At the same time, and I did an extensive LRC analysis yesterday, a series of stronger storm systems is likely during the last 20 days of this month as well according to the LRC.  Will there be cold air for these storm systems to work with?

Happy New Year everyone. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Share this post with your friends

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin

45
Leave a Reply

avatar
23 Comment threads
22 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
27 Comment authors
Mr. PetesnowflakeparkvilleTerryf00dl3rush2112 Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Terry
Guest
Terry

comment image GFS 00z for January 12th this would be about when the November 25th blizzard returns and this shows snow here.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Why is it that winter the last few years ends by mid Januay?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

We’ll get there eventually. A winter that goes on and on. Maybe this year. Maybe it starts at mid-January!

rush2112
Guest
rush2112

Well, even if Georgia somehow pulls this out, I was wrong. The beatdown has been the other way around. Texas came ready to play.

Stl78(winon,mn)
Guest
Stl78(winon,mn)

That’s better than your jack squat lol. Enjoy the zonal flow for now, it’s going to change soon enough.

Emaw
Guest
Emaw

1.25″ in Linn Valley yesterday, the lake is full and zonal flow will rule most of the winter baby!

snowhater
Guest
snowhater

ravens have a great running game chiefs cabnnot stop the run period chiefs lose bigtimre ha ha ja ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

You must be from Oakland

snowhater
Guest
snowhater

heat miser you had your blizzard in november the rest of winter no snow ha ha ha and the chiefs lose to the ravens in their first playoff game ha ha ha ha

rush2112
Guest
rush2112

Is Gary England still doing his thing down there? He’s the man when it comes to severe weather.

Lrcfan1
Guest
Lrcfan1

Winter storm watch out for Oklahoma city.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Today would have been the perfect winter weather if there had been some light snow.

I actually did see a few stray flakes here and there but nothing to get excited about.

SadSnowPlower
Guest
SadSnowPlower

Gary, please don’t take offense to this question, it is mere curiosity. I’m not real sure how to phase this, but I’ll do my best. It is obvious to me that the LRC is there, it’s hard to deny it. However, with storms like the Thursday storm that has formed an entire state away, how do you pinpoint accuracy? It’s hard to fallow something for an area, when you honestly have no idea if it will even hit your viewing area. There is no denying that the storms line up, but as a meteorologist, how do you trust it enough… Read more »

DanT
Guest
DanT

Happy New Year!! Question- Is the lack of snow trend an El Niño issue or the new LRC Issue?

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Maybe it will be another cold and snowy April.

Matt
Guest
Matt

No Severe Weather March thru November.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

after a cold and snowy Jan, Feb and March

thetophat
Guest
thetophat

No. Thinking we’ve already seen the worst (for us snow haters) of this winter very early this year. Would not be surprised to see severe weather season open for business early…………

Mr. Fiffels
Guest
Mr. Fiffels

Jan 20-Feb 5 = 11+ inches of snow in KC Metro.

rush2112
Guest
rush2112

Based on what? Not saying won’t snow but that’s waaaay to far out to say with any certainty if it will snow that much or if it will even snow at all. Like saying that between May 20-June 5 there will be a tornado outbreak- chance is there but who knows?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

And you are basing this on what? That lines up with the completely weather-dead part of early to mid December.

Chris
Guest
Chris

I love snow, and miss the days when we could bank on two or three good snow events per year, but unfortunately this is the new normal and as the years go by you can expect less snow and ice….

Supercell
Guest
Supercell

Three of Kansas City’s snowiest winters in recorded history are in the last ten years. Two of our coldest winters are in the last ten years. Normal for this geographic region is some years we will get snow and some we won’t. Some years will be cold and some won’t. Average over the last ten years is average.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

totally disagree. True we had four years of below average winters, but we’ve also had multiple years in a row of above average. This winter has already over performed in terms of number of storms…some were early in late fall and some were just rain, but we are in quite an active pattern. Hopefully we will get a couple more snow storms before the winter ends.

JoeK
Guest
JoeK

Supercell and Heat,

You both are spot on. 5 of our last 10 winters were average or above average. I think it is a perception issue that has been caused by the most recent 4 winters which, is understandable, but definitely only a perception issue. I, in no way, believe low snow winters are our “new normal”. Taking into consideration what I believe is yet to come for this winter, I still believe we will finish well above average in terms of snow amounts

Skylar
Guest
Skylar

Getting a steady light snow here in Lawrence this morning! There’s lots of perfectly idyllic snowflake shapes. Very pretty.

Clint
Guest
Clint

CMC makes it cold and possibly snowy on the 11th. Could be a cold snowy playoff game.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Fits cycle. Jan 11-15 area matches The Blizzard

Clint
Guest
Clint

Would the blizzard storm mark the beginning of a new cycle?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

We’ve had two storms hit KC hard since the beginning of October. Count the days out yourself 🙂

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

Gary, Happy New Year! Could you put a percent chance that the Thursday storm wobbles north and produces a significant storm for the KC metro?

Ryan
Guest
Ryan

*Snow storm

Coachshawn
Guest
Coachshawn

Winter weather fans can hope, but it will likely be another “warm” winter. Our hope needs to be that the LRC produces a pattern that provides moisture of any kind.

rush2112
Guest
rush2112

Looking much better for Thurs. Shaping up to be another “Kansas City” winter. Less than 10″ for the season? Doubt it but it looks to be another under performing situation snow wise, at least for now.

Matt
Guest
Matt

A month from tomorrow Groundhog Day,

OPweathernerd
Guest
OPweathernerd

What is the group’s prediction, gut or data-based, on the temperature for the next two-three weeks? If I recall correctly it was projected as a colder than average winter. Has that prediction changed?

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

First of New Year!