A Blocking Pattern May Be Forming & Thoughts On Last Night’s Game

Good morning bloggers,

The chance of a white Christmas may be going up if some blocking forms over Greenland.  We will discuss this in today’s blog.  I didn’t get a lot of sleep last night after the frustration over the way the Chiefs lost last night.  It is just a game, so we will get over it. I am pretty much over it now.  I know on other social media there will be a lot of people telling me to “stick to weather”, and I will not take it personally.  I am just a huge sports fan, and it is just my opinion.  I think we just experience Andy Reid football once again.   Andy Reid is a great NFL football coach.  Everyone we know has strengths and weaknesses, and one of Andy Reid’s weaknesses has to do with how he manages games and leads in big games.  We have a history of losing huge leads in big games; examples are in last years playoff loss at Arrowhead after leading 21-3 in the third quarter. They lost 22-21.  And, it happened fast.  Another example is in the Indianapolis loss in the playoffs in 2014 when the Chiefs lead 38-10 in the fourth quarter.  They lost 45-44.  They had the ball at the end, in each game, so Mahomes would likely not have let this happen in those two outcomes.  Last night Mahomes didn’t get the ball.  Andy Reid went conservative last night with the lead again, as the Chiefs lead 14-0, 21-7, and 28-14.  This happened again.  Now this wasn’t a playoff loss. So, let’s hope they got this out of their system. The Chiefs still control their own destiny, and they now must win at Seattle, then at home on the last game of the season against Oakland.  I think they will do it, and we will feel better.  I have a few more takes, and I will discuss this on Sports Radio 810 WHB this morning.

Okay, back to the chance of a white Christmas.  The probability of a white Christmas will be going way up if this blocking does indeed develop in the next week:

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This map above shows the GFS model from the midnight run last night.  The High with the red circle around it is a rather strong upper level high closing off just east of Greenland.  This somewhat happened a few weeks ago and it lead to some rather cold weather in the past few weeks and 8.3″ of snow early in this season at KCI Airport.  A block is not forecast to form on all of the models, so we will keep monitoring this in the next few days.  When blocking forms over Alaska, northwest Canada, or Greenland, the jet stream is forced farther south and a becomes a bit more energized.  On this map above, a storm is approaching the plains on Christmas Eve.  It will be a real storm, if that blocking high does indeed develop.

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These next two maps, above, shows two different versions of possible snowstorms near KC as Santa Clause arrives around midnight Christmas Eve night.  Again, it may highly depend on how that block forms, if that block forms at all.  So, this is something to, at least for the moment, get our minds off of the KC Chiefs tough loss to take today.

Kansas City Forecast:  The weather looks great this weekend. The sun will return after a cloudy and cold start this morning, with highs reaching into the 50s Saturday and Sunday.

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

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Richard
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Richard

Good morning
Up and at ‘em !! 😀
Going to be a nice weekend.

KS Jones
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KS Jones

Another nice day today here out west, and that looks to be the trend for awhile.
Today’s high temperature was 49°.
There is no rain or snow in this 10-day forecast, and the tempersture is predicted to be above average for all of the next 9 days.
12/15: 54° & 29°
12/16: 53° & 25°
12/17: 53° & 31°
12/18: 52° & 33°
12/19: 53° & 36°
12/20: 50° & 31°
12/21: 50° & 31°
12/22: 45° & 24°
12/23: 43° & 27°

Richard
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Richard

Good to know.
But something about those above average temps makes me think it will come back to bite us in a big way.
I just hope it brings snow with it !! A waste of cold air when it doesn’t snow .

KS Jones
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KS Jones

The average high & low temperatures for Topeka are:
December 14: 42° & 22°
December 15: 41° & 22°
December 19: 40° & 21°

Richard
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Richard

Gary
I missed the 12 days of Christmas-forecast can you post it here

snowhater
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snowhater

its friday night in the big town split flow weathermans wow no snow ho ho ho have a good weekend heat miser

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol…you still bitter about the November blizzard Snowhater? Read Gary’s comment above…you might be in for another snow beating. Ha ha

morganu
Member
morganu

Incredibly quiet pattern for at least the next 10-14 days. Especially for December. Hardly any snow anywhere outside of the mountain ranges. Hopefully we can pull off an end of the month miracle like the FV3 showed at 12z.

Richard
Guest
Richard

Gary on air just now said he will be giving 12 days of Christmas forecast coming up.

Stl78(winon,mn)
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Stl78(winon,mn)

Depends on your perception of cold….37 felt amazing up here today. Plus it was the first sunshine we’ve seen in quite some time. Long sleeve shirt was all that was needed and tbh I think I could’ve worn a short sleeve.

Blue Flash
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Blue Flash

Skies have cleared but that danged snow cover over Iowa is keeping us cold.

Snow Miser
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Snow Miser
MMike
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MMike

#21 #22, #23, #49,#20….should not be playing football in the NFL. Last night, I watch our safeties on 43 plays…I’m not kidding when I say it would have been any different if we kept them on the sideline and only had 9 players out there. They are so bad. I can’t believe that our coaching staff can’t find somebody else to try in those positions. How can they not see this? During Andy Reid’s era, please name a big game that really counted that he has won. He’s famous for winning games no one pays attention too, but, when a… Read more »

Richard
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Richard

This ^^^

Three7s
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Three7s

100%. HFA doesn’t matter because the Chiefs are no different at home than on the road.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

I have been doing some thinking and I think it’s interesting that as far as I can remember the early/pre- winter can really set the tone for the rest of winter. I know there are always exceptions but in general in my memory I recall that most years we see no snow until January, we see very low seasonal totals. This has been the case a lot in recent years when we end up waiting until January for our first inch. This year was different. But I would almost go on a limb and say that if we don’t have… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Looks like 2004 and 2005 are both correct. 2004-2005’s snowiest month was November, and 2005-2006 had a December total of 11.1 inches and a season total of 13.4 inches (because 2006 as a weather year is awful in every way). January-March 2006 actually seems almost 2017-like.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

Oh, and the “December 9th timeframe” is 8.3 inches on December 7-8, 2005. Those two days had highs of 11 and 13, and lows of 7 and 2, respectively. Impressive for a winter that turned so intensely warm and dry so quickly.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Kind of really puts the LRC in it’s place doesn’t it? How the surface can be so different….

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

F00dl3: I have do respectfully disagree with January and February 2018 being “warm” . Here are the temperature trends: January 1-7 were much below average: I hit 10 below twice in this time frame January 8-10: Above Average January 11-18: Below Average….people were still ice skating off the dam of Clinton Lake during these dates…I have a picture some where of KU written in the snow 200 feet off Clinton Dam January 19-27: Above Average January 27th-February 12th: Much Below Average….nearly 10 degrees below average with the ice storm….ice skating on the lakes around my house February 12th-20th: Above Average… Read more »

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill in Lawrence

Temperature trends for Lawrence

Mike Holm
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Wasn’t there two years in a row and we got no snow until the end of January and then we ended up having 40 inches?

Richard
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Richard

Would love to have a white Christmas.

snowflakeparkville
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snowflakeparkville

I know analogs aren’t really that great…but…does this feel like 2014-2015 to anyone else?

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

lol…what? NO…all the rain and snow systems that have come thru Lawrence has been phenomenal…dont remember ever seeing that, esp in Oct and Nov.

thetophat
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thetophat

Analogs do work but, of course, every year is unique. Has to be. The closest I am looking at is this being a somewhat milder (believe it or not) version of the November animal of 1991. Would not be at all surprised to see an early spring ala that very mild February 1992.

Urbanity
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Urbanity

Looks like a typical Kansas winter of the past 4 years is back, no action at all. i know all the stuff that happened early on and then the small blizzard (in terms of snowfall), but really it feels like the hope of an exciting winter is declining with every forecast.

Heat Miser
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Heat Miser

We’ve had four or five snows, and a lot of rain…..all pre winter, but a good sign of a totally new pattern. I think there’s a good chance you are wrong, and Gary seems to be expecting an exciting winter pattern as well.

REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Well there ain’t much showing up thorough the end of the month, Christmas storm pooped on 12Z GFS. Nothing showing up of consequence, maybe a rain by the end of the month. That will be a December with practically no snow, so who cares what Novemebr did when it’s not snowing in Dec that’s a red flag

JoeK
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JoeK

Hume,

The models do not have a handle on this pattern. I believe you will start to see more show up very soon

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Gary seems to think there’s a decent chance of polar cold and a storm around Xmas…if we get that Greenland blocking. Instead of proclaiming gloom and doom as so often has been done in the past on the blog..lets watch and see what happens. Oct AND November have been very rainy/snowy here in lawrence. I have a lot of hope…and Gary seems to believe we are going to see pretty active winter. I hope so.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

+/- a day or two it could be yes. Either way the blocking – to answer the earlier question – I believe is completely independent of the LRC as El Nino and Arctic blocking both have about the same direct relationship to our LRC, but at the same time, put across the same indirect relationship to the LRC. They are not part of the LRC but they set up the surface features that the LRC can exploit.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Think of it this way. The LRC dictates what goes on at the 500 millibar level. I keep seeing people referencing that “a high wasn’t there over Montanna” last time around – using that approach is not correct. Surface highs can be created by pure orthographically based features such as Mountains at night time. A low or a high on the surface at X position can randomly be generated due to warmer temperatures here and colder temperatures there. A strong upper level low on the other hand is based on the LRC, because a upper level low is controlled by… Read more »

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Are you saying that the LRC first appears at the pole and shifts south?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I think the LRC never really first appears, but changes when other cycles – the ENSO, AAO, NAO, PNA, etc…. all change the timing and placement of LRC features when the LRC features are at their weakest most northernmost point.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

Everything is recycled but changed.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Probably – rather than +

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I would say our chance of a white Christmas is there – but it may be very subjectional as KCI may see 1″ but the rest of the city may not see much at all. St Joe may have 1-2″ and S IA may see 2-4″.

I think the 29-31st has to be watched very close for a major winter storm possible in the plains. Someone between OK and MN will likely see a 1-2 feet out of this storm. Maybe us?

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Maybe a bit more 28-29 than 29-31 for that storm?

smizell
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smizell

Gary, does the storm fit the new LRC? Does the blocking fit the new LRC? Is it still to early to tell?

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Look at that 500 millibar chart. Cutoff low ejecting to St Louis. When have we seen that before? Pass rusher not line backer in this cycle.

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BSmike
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BSmike

Furry channel mt said no chance and 50’s and 60’s next two weeks. The wife had to have it on furry for the pre game stuff otherwise I would not have seen that BS he puts out.

Three7s
Guest
Three7s

I thought he retired.

Hockeynut69
Guest
Hockeynut69

His last day I believe will be the 21st. He’s a good guy but his forecasts were not the best. With that said why not throw it out there because you can’t be held accountable if you are no longer on the air.

Matt
Guest
Matt

But Joe Laura is in this Weekend.

Three7s
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Three7s

Chiefs have zero chance in Seattle. They will get the ball run down their throats.

Frankie
Guest
Frankie

Many said this about Baltimore too, but Mahomes put on an MVP display as he’s done all season, and our defense came up with a few stops. However, that is very rare. And with Kendall Fuller now out, this defense is a historically bad one for the Chiefs. Not sure we make it anywhere after the performance by our secondary last night.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Yep, gonna get out coached

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

“Santa Clause”

That’s Santa Claus. 😉

If there’s any good news about the Chief’s loss, at least they’re only losing to good teams. Rams, Patriots and Chargers are each as good as, and maybe better, than the Chiefs. If they were losing in upsets to mediocre teams then we’d really have something to complain about.

snowflakeparkville
Guest
snowflakeparkville

Grammar joke: santa’s little helpers? Subordinate clauses.

Nick
Guest
Nick

I think we are stuck in the CRC. (Chiefs Recurring Cycle) The Chiefs build up, they do good, then in the playoffs/nearplayoffs, it falls apart, and then the pattern repeats. Maybe the cycle will change, but it seems to be well over a 30 year cycle.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

One or two players does not a good team make. Even when we had Joe Montanna and Derrick Thomas we still didn’t make the superbowl.

Mike Holm
Guest

Would have if Montana doesn’t get hurt

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary, Chiefs won’t win at Seattle. That team is fighting hard for its own playoff position. This team will never win a super bowl until Bob Sutton is fired.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

First, by the way.