Calmer this Weekend, Two Storm Systems Next Week

/Calmer this Weekend, Two Storm Systems Next Week

Calmer this Weekend, Two Storm Systems Next Week

Good Saturday bloggers,

This is the first weekend since November 10-11 that we are not tracking snow. Now, it did snow 1/2″ on November 12th. So, really you can go back to the weekend of November 3-4 since we did not track snow during a weekend.

A large storm this weekend, that earlier in the week we thought could track up to near I-70, is well south. The center of the upper level storm system early Saturday was south of Lubbock, TX. The storm will track east and not northeast, leaving our area in a calm and cold weekend.

Today will be mostly sunny with highs in the 30s along with a light east wind. We will have a few high clouds from the extreme northern fringe of the southern storm.

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This is the first weekend since November 3-4 that we are not tracking or having snow in our area. We are officially at 8.3″ of snow for the season and this already exceeds the totals from the last three years. There are two storm systems to track next week.

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SUNDAY: It will start very cold with lows 10°-15°, so keep that in mind if you are headed to Arrowhead for early tailgating.  It will warm to around freezing by kickoff.  Highs will reach the mid 30s during the game. At least we will see plenty of sunshine and a light wind.

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MONDAY: It will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s. A weak system will come in from the north, possibly bringing a flurry.

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TUESDAY: A brisk south wind will blast the cold air out of the middle of the USA. This will take our highs to the 50s.

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WEDNESDAY: This is the timing for the first storm system. The new data is trending for the system to form rain along and east of the Mississippi river. There is just a 20% chance the rain forms far enough west to bring our region some showers.

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THURSDAY: This is the timing for the second storm system. This has potential to be a bigger and wet storm system, but the data from overnight suggests a much weaker and fast-moving system. That being said, it is still timed for the Charger-Chiefs game.  There is much uncertainty here and we will have to track it one day at a time.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

2018-12-09T07:57:40+00:00December 8th, 2018|General|39 Comments

39 Comments

  1. REAL HUMEDUDE December 8, 2018 at 8:41 am - Reply

    UNO!

    bring on a warmup, this weather has me depressed. GO CHIEFS

  2. Richard December 8, 2018 at 9:40 am - Reply

    Dos

    It is encouraging that we will warm up for a couple of days.
    Ready for it !

  3. Terry December 8, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

    Why do we post data forecast pictures when we all know it will change over and over again.

    • Heat Miser December 8, 2018 at 10:35 am - Reply

      Beats me. Isn’t it a sign of madness to keep doing the same thing over and over again when it doesn’t work? LOL

    • RickMcKC December 8, 2018 at 12:39 pm - Reply

      Because it’s a weather blog? Because it’s fun? No idea other than those possibilities.

      • Heat Miser December 8, 2018 at 2:06 pm - Reply

        The weather blog part makes sense, but its fun to look at something that doesn’t mean anything because it’s usually wrong historically? LoL…to each his own I guess. I think that is more frustrating than fun, but call me crazy.

    • Snow Miser December 8, 2018 at 3:48 pm - Reply

      Because it’s fun.

  4. Terry December 8, 2018 at 10:19 am - Reply
  5. Lrcfan1 December 8, 2018 at 10:36 am - Reply

    Cmc wowser thursday and friday!

  6. morganu December 8, 2018 at 10:46 am - Reply

    Nice rainstorm on the Canadian. GFS is quite weak with it.

  7. Supercell December 8, 2018 at 10:48 am - Reply

    GFS has been consistent there will be a storm around KC next Friday-Saturday as LRC would suggest. Canadian model has the low passing very close to KC while the GFS has the low swinging a little further south and east on this run. But I would say confidence is high we will have a storm impacting our area late next week. GFS has modeled the storm for 3 consecutive days, Gary believes the storm fits the LRC and now other models are coming on board. We have something fun to track and a chiefs game Thursday night that might be impacted (although the storm would have to speed up for that to happen).

    • Cmw December 8, 2018 at 11:50 am - Reply

      A storm lasting 3 days? I don’t know what this means

      • supercell December 8, 2018 at 11:56 am - Reply

        Sorry, meant to say GFS has consistently had next week’s storm on each run for the past 3-days. GFS has been very stubborn insisting there will be a storm in the midwest end of next week. Just a poorly worded sentence on my part. There goes my future career as a writer!

        • RickMcKC December 8, 2018 at 12:38 pm - Reply

          But you take feedback well, so there’s still hope!

      • f00dl3 December 8, 2018 at 1:04 pm - Reply

        It could last for 3 days too but I think flow is too zonal right now to allow it to bottle up like it did the first 2 times, so instead of 1 trough we may get 2 with a cutoff low in epac covering the gap

  8. Richard December 8, 2018 at 10:57 am - Reply

    Seeing pics from Lubbuck TX. They got dumped on last night !!
    Looks to be at least 6 inches. Heavy wet snow clinging to trees. Very nice.

  9. FarmerMike December 8, 2018 at 1:08 pm - Reply

    There is some talk in my area of Central Kansas getting hit pretty hard by next weekend’s storm does anybody have anything to add to this been out of the loop for a while

    • Heat Miser December 8, 2018 at 2:08 pm - Reply

      A week away? Nobody knows yet…tune in next week.

  10. Mr. Pete December 8, 2018 at 2:33 pm - Reply

    Gary or anyone else – what was Gary’s prediction for a white Christmas yesterday? He was supposed to air it.

  11. Larry December 8, 2018 at 2:45 pm - Reply

    25% as of yesterday, could go up or down.

  12. Emaw December 8, 2018 at 5:45 pm - Reply

    Quick question. I read the blog today and saw Tuesday forecast was for 50’s but windy. I just read the official forecast on 41’s website and it said 50’s with light wind. Which is it? This makes a huge difference for those of us that work outdoors.

  13. f00dl3 December 8, 2018 at 5:52 pm - Reply

    Since Oct 5 we have had 13 days 2 degrees or more above normal, 48 days, on the other hand…. lol

  14. Kurt December 8, 2018 at 6:03 pm - Reply

    If 18Z GFS verifies zero percent chance of a white Christmas, zilch for snow and or rain the next 384 hours on that run

  15. Supercell December 8, 2018 at 6:43 pm - Reply

    Yeah big swing and a miss. Took the low way south and out of the picture, but the FV3 keeps the low on a good track. On to the 9:30 data…

  16. Emaw December 8, 2018 at 7:32 pm - Reply

    I’d say we’re doing fine with soil moisture, especially compared to a year ago. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

  17. Terry December 8, 2018 at 7:57 pm - Reply

    We all know the next Thursday Friday is still way out in the Pacific Northwest ocean and so we’re gonna get many different model data’s back until it gets ashore.

  18. Richard December 8, 2018 at 8:31 pm - Reply

    Snowing in Boone NC and Asheville. Cantore is in Boone.

  19. Randy Keller December 8, 2018 at 9:26 pm - Reply

    Kyler Murray!! Boomer Sooner !

    horns down!!!!

    OU

  20. Bsmime December 8, 2018 at 9:47 pm - Reply

    Kyler is so disrespectful!!

  21. Bsmike December 8, 2018 at 9:48 pm - Reply

    Ou still sucks

  22. Terry December 8, 2018 at 10:15 pm - Reply

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png GFS 18z the storm has shifted some north on the GFS 00z run

  23. Terry December 8, 2018 at 10:17 pm - Reply
  24. Lrcfan1 December 8, 2018 at 10:26 pm - Reply

    Gerard on the news said it would have no effect on kc and may take the rain out of Thursday’s forecast for the chiefs game which would be good news.

  25. f00dl3 December 9, 2018 at 7:05 am - Reply

    So I see this being a problem. Gary’s anchor Trough is causing these storms to dive further south the second they hit Joplin. I think this is the reason why our fall was so cold, because it forced cold air over us. But now we are in the heart of winter, it’s impacts will be that storms will miss us until Spring. Winter may be average to above average temperatures with most snowfall coming from clipper systems until late February then we will go back into the well below average / heavy snow pattern until mid April if this is the case. The pattern is still cycling, it’s just that it’s shifted too far south now for the main players to really produce. If this pans out we may only see 15-19″ of snow this winter, from several more snow events, but much more I see a question.

  26. Terry December 9, 2018 at 8:16 am - Reply

    What remember also in one of Gary’s Comments to another Blogger Dated is December 7ths blog to Richard 1102am is Stated LRC Anchor troughs , Likely just east of Kc a d the Major Storms should Osillate between east of Kc and west of Kc . There will also be South a d North variations from cycle to cycle depending on the Phase of Ao/Nao/pna/El nine. Go back and read the Comments!

  27. KS Jones December 9, 2018 at 8:32 am - Reply

    The 10-day forecast for this area (110 miles west-northwest of KC, as the crow flies) shows above average temperatures with no precipitation. I know that would put many bloggers back east on the verge of apoplectic siezure, but I’m hoping it holds true for this western climate zone.

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