Winter Begins In Two Weeks: Today’s Video Blog

/Winter Begins In Two Weeks: Today’s Video Blog

Winter Begins In Two Weeks: Today’s Video Blog

Good morning bloggers,

While Oklahoma has a nightmare for the meteorologists that have been attempting to predict what will happen with this storm, Kansas City has it easier this weekend.  We have already had 8.3″ inches of snow, and have been hit by a major winter storm/blizzard back on November 25th.  In my experience with the LRC over the years, when you have an event as big as that one in November, the potential for an exciting winter ahead is much increased.  Winter begins two weeks from today, and it is going to be exciting near KC.

Here is today’s Video Blog:

This map is just one of the many snow forecast maps from the various computer models:

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I explain a bit in the video.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

2018-12-08T07:57:56+00:00December 7th, 2018|General|56 Comments

56 Comments

  1. Jim December 7, 2018 at 7:56 am - Reply

    First

  2. Snow Miser December 7, 2018 at 8:45 am - Reply

    Forget talking about Oklahoma, North Carolina is going to be far more interesting. Check out these snowfall totals from the NAM, it’s so ridiculous it’s almost funny:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018120712/namconus_asnow_seus_29.png

    • REAL HUMEDUDE December 7, 2018 at 8:58 am - Reply

      Output is almost always overdone, I would cut those totals in half and maybe that’s accurate. Either way, a huge storm for them they aren’t used to in the slightest. Our weather is looking a lot quieter in next 2 weeks to me, I am not complaining one bit. I would welcome a warm up and some moderating temps, its been cold since late October……..some would argue this SUCKS! We are on pace for a 6 month cold season, I never signed up for that!!!

    • Tim in Lone Jack December 7, 2018 at 9:31 am - Reply

      Something must be wrong with the output runs through tropical tidbits for this event. Other sites do show the crazy high totals but nowhere near the coverage area impacted– NAM or GFS.

  3. Mike December 7, 2018 at 8:57 am - Reply

    Gary, can you show us the pattern that produces the crazy amount of snowfalls in North Carolina in the 1st cycle? Try to learn lrc.

  4. Mr. Pete December 7, 2018 at 9:06 am - Reply

    Gary according to your video, cold air could be in place for Christmas. Chances of a white Christmas??

    • Gary December 7, 2018 at 9:54 am - Reply

      My white Christmas forecast begins tonight on 41 Action News!

      • Mr. Pete December 7, 2018 at 11:17 am - Reply

        Nice! I’ve always appreciated that we live in a part of the country where this is a possibility. As I recall from last year, we had a miracle snow like on Christmas Eve, maybe an inch – but it made for a White Christmas nonetheless.

        • snowflakeparkville December 7, 2018 at 12:40 pm - Reply

          1.1 inches overnight Dec 23-24 2017

  5. f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 9:09 am - Reply

    I guess what will really be interesting is if the Arctic blasts times it the way I think Gary is alluding to how it will time it’s self it coincides with a weak snowfall, but the weekend after that (New Years Eve) we could have big snow (8-16″).

    • Richard December 7, 2018 at 9:35 am - Reply

      f00dl3
      When I said ridiculous I don’t mean you.
      You are the one who tries to make sense of it all.

      • Gary December 7, 2018 at 9:55 am - Reply

        So, what is ridiculous then, Richard?

        • Richard December 7, 2018 at 10:53 am - Reply

          Not that I owe an explanation, but the cold Gary the cold !
          We had a long hot summer now it appears a long very cold winter.
          You said on video the pattern is now set. I took it to mean the temps are too.

          • Gary December 7, 2018 at 11:02 am - Reply

            We will have ups and downs. There are other influences that also affect temperatures, even though the LRC is the dominant forcing of the overall cycling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere. One thing that has not quite happened yet, and it will happen at times this winter, is the trough shifting just a bit west. When this happens, the warm ups ahead of storm systems should be substantial. Kansas City is near one of the LRC Anchor troughs, likely just east of KC, and the major storms should oscillate between east of KC and west of KC. There will also be south and north variations from cycle to cycle depending on the phase of the AO/NAO/PNA/El Niño and we will try to pick these out. For now, my weather team needs just a little break, and we get one for a few days. The GFS did pick up on the storm for next week, so we will be discussing this soon.

          • Heat Miser December 7, 2018 at 11:40 am - Reply

            “not that I owe an explanation”…why say that? Why so defensive?

          • Joe December 7, 2018 at 6:03 pm - Reply

            “the cold” No, that does not match up with your response to Foodl3.

            • Richard December 7, 2018 at 6:51 pm - Reply

              Joe
              My first comment of ridiculous at 9:14 was referring to the cold. The cold building up as Gary showed in the video.
              My commemt to f00d was so that he would not think that I was referring to HIS comment, at 9:09, which was directly above my comment.
              Capiche ?
              I frankly don’t owe you an explanation either.
              But here I am explaining. So lets move on.

  6. Richard December 7, 2018 at 9:14 am - Reply

    Ridiculous

  7. Hockeynut69 December 7, 2018 at 10:03 am - Reply

    KU’s Pooka Williams arrested last night for domestic battery. When are these football players going to learn? Sad.

    • Mr. Pete December 7, 2018 at 11:19 am - Reply

      Wait, KU has a football team?

      • Heat Miser December 7, 2018 at 11:39 am - Reply

        Ha ha, no, not realy

  8. Numb3rsGuy December 7, 2018 at 10:09 am - Reply

    I love the video blogs, Gary! Keep them coming!

  9. f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 10:25 am - Reply

    So throwing temperatures asides things make a bit of sense. Looking at the 12z runs, comparing to last time, the Rocky Trough even the last time through, it wrapped in just enough cold air to turn the precipitation to be snowfall. That’s why we only had minor snow accumulations even though the duration of the events was all day long – because ratios were low and precipitation was light to moderate at times. If the low takes a identical track then it makes sense that we won’t wrap in cold air either. I mean the low was only 27 that day of the first wave. That day that was 16 degrees below normal, but this time of year it’s not that below normal.

    • f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 10:49 am - Reply

      Heck, the first time it came through, temps started in the 90s! But that was the led wave. Then things cooled off to a bit more seasonal. So maybe that’s the parallel not exhibit (C).

  10. Michael Casteel December 7, 2018 at 10:38 am - Reply

    Gary,
    After January 1st will you post an “IN Depth” timeline based on the LRC that will get us through the end of this years pattern? It would be very helpful for my job. Thanks sir! Plus I still need to get my Book signed by you! I bought three copies! Have a blessed weekend Bloggers!
    Michael

  11. thetophat December 7, 2018 at 11:20 am - Reply

    Six months of winter followed by six months of summer…………wash rinse repeat. I know Gary is not a fan of analogs but this seems a bit like 1982-84 so far.

  12. Richard December 7, 2018 at 11:32 am - Reply

    I still don’t understand how we went from snow in April to a.c. HEAT on May 1 and the rest of the summer was so hot.
    What influences were present to cause that. I don’t think it was ever explained ?
    I know a drought was predicted, but drought does not always translate to way above norm temps when we had so many below temps last winter.

  13. f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 11:44 am - Reply

    Hmm so they shut down all of I-29 for Trump. Interesting.

    • Heat Miser December 7, 2018 at 4:33 pm - Reply

      Yup…presidents get crazy protection

  14. f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 11:57 am - Reply

    LOL FV3 gives St. Louis 8-12″ again.

  15. f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 4:04 pm - Reply

    With how fast Gary deletes references to the length of the pattern I’m shocked that the profanity and offensive stuff stays up for 6 hours.

  16. f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 4:24 pm - Reply

    So GFS comes in w/ rain as the predominant precip type for the next storm and 0.75″ QPF. Which tells me that if we only drop 5 degrees colder than what the GFS says, that could be 3-6″ of snow.

  17. morganu December 7, 2018 at 4:31 pm - Reply

    Such a marginal setup for snow next week. As of now at least.

  18. Elaine Watson December 7, 2018 at 4:46 pm - Reply

    Looks like the storm went south of Oklahoma as well.

  19. craig December 7, 2018 at 4:56 pm - Reply

    Gary, you’ve got to devise a way that allows only paid subscribers to comment!

    • Tony December 7, 2018 at 5:06 pm - Reply

      Lol what makes you say that?

      • craig December 7, 2018 at 5:12 pm - Reply

        The ridiculously-offensive comments from “Julie” have been deleted.

    • Gary December 7, 2018 at 5:10 pm - Reply

      We are working on it. Likely within the next month.

      • JoeK December 7, 2018 at 6:05 pm - Reply

        Yes. Only verified users that must use their real names please. This forces folks to be civil to one another.

      • f00dl3 December 7, 2018 at 8:18 pm - Reply

        Maybe phone text verification for accounts?

        • JoeK December 7, 2018 at 10:59 pm - Reply

          Foodl3,

          Only problem with using phone verification is the use of burner phones that would still render identifying an individual useless.

          • snowflakeparkville December 9, 2018 at 5:59 pm - Reply

            But what troll is that dedicated? Usually only one extra layer of difficulty is enough of a deterrent.

  20. Hockeynut69 December 7, 2018 at 6:30 pm - Reply

    There is a huge disparity between the GFS and the FV3. If this is supposed to be the new GFS then there is going to be a lot of wishcasting in the future. It appears to have handled this Oklahoma/ Texas storm horribly even during the event. My question is with this being new technology, why is it so bad?

  21. Alex Pickman December 7, 2018 at 7:52 pm - Reply

    Here in Stewartsville, MO….Currently at 15 inches on the season after this most recent 1.7”.

  22. Supercell December 7, 2018 at 10:41 pm - Reply

    00z GFS hasn’t budged on storm for next Friday-Saturday. That’s at least 6 runs holding steady. Will be interesting over weekend to see if other models come on board. I wouldn’t worry about temps for now. If the Low bombs out then cold air won’t be a problem on the backside.

  23. Becky December 7, 2018 at 10:56 pm - Reply

    I would like to say that I hope if it becomes paid to comment that we can still not pay to READ the comments. I dont ever comment I read the blog and the comments and get some great info on upcoming storm systems. I am an enthusiast and still learning and love this blog. I was on the other blog and was very upset at what the comments had become. I just ask that we can at least read without paying. And thank you to everyone that contributes ..I love reading what everyone’s take is on the weather. Have a great evening!

    • KS Jones December 8, 2018 at 8:09 am - Reply

      It seems like the techie should be able to block the IPs of offenders. That’s how many other forums do it successfully.

  24. rush2112 December 7, 2018 at 11:13 pm - Reply

    Would like to end the day by remembering all the folks who died 77 yrs ago today at Pearl Harbor and a heartfelt thank you to all of the Greatest Generation who helped to save the world.

    • Paul December 7, 2018 at 11:38 pm - Reply

      AMEN!

    • JoeK December 8, 2018 at 12:05 am - Reply

      rush,

      Most likely one of the best posts I have read in a long time! That generation truly was the greatest generation. Much respect to all the men and women that serve

  25. Anonymous December 7, 2018 at 11:44 pm - Reply

    Puts things in perspective. Thanks for the reminder Rush!

  26. Randy E. December 8, 2018 at 7:39 am - Reply

    Gary, Please make it to where subscribers only can comment and everybody can read the comments. Spammers don’t like paying to spam. I have been reading your blog for over 2 months and I’m learning a lot about the LRC and upcoming other weather patterns. Gary do you think that we will have a very wet spring if this pattern keeps going?

  27. Jo December 8, 2018 at 8:51 am - Reply

    I always read but have never commented. While I agree it is wrong that someone makes vulgar type comments, who really cares? They are just words and you don’t even know the person. Are grown humans really that sensitive and get extremely hurt by someone who they don’t even know makes some random comment? Grow some thicker skin. Again I don’t agree with it at all, however why are people so soft?

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