Winter Begins In Two Weeks: Today’s Video Blog

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Good morning bloggers,

While Oklahoma has a nightmare for the meteorologists that have been attempting to predict what will happen with this storm, Kansas City has it easier this weekend.  We have already had 8.3″ inches of snow, and have been hit by a major winter storm/blizzard back on November 25th.  In my experience with the LRC over the years, when you have an event as big as that one in November, the potential for an exciting winter ahead is much increased.  Winter begins two weeks from today, and it is going to be exciting near KC.

Here is today’s Video Blog:

This map is just one of the many snow forecast maps from the various computer models:

4

I explain a bit in the video.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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Jo
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Jo

I always read but have never commented. While I agree it is wrong that someone makes vulgar type comments, who really cares? They are just words and you don’t even know the person. Are grown humans really that sensitive and get extremely hurt by someone who they don’t even know makes some random comment? Grow some thicker skin. Again I don’t agree with it at all, however why are people so soft?

Randy E.
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Randy E.

Gary, Please make it to where subscribers only can comment and everybody can read the comments. Spammers don’t like paying to spam. I have been reading your blog for over 2 months and I’m learning a lot about the LRC and upcoming other weather patterns. Gary do you think that we will have a very wet spring if this pattern keeps going?

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Puts things in perspective. Thanks for the reminder Rush!

rush2112
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rush2112

Would like to end the day by remembering all the folks who died 77 yrs ago today at Pearl Harbor and a heartfelt thank you to all of the Greatest Generation who helped to save the world.

Paul
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Paul

AMEN!

JoeK
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JoeK

rush,

Most likely one of the best posts I have read in a long time! That generation truly was the greatest generation. Much respect to all the men and women that serve

Becky
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Becky

I would like to say that I hope if it becomes paid to comment that we can still not pay to READ the comments. I dont ever comment I read the blog and the comments and get some great info on upcoming storm systems. I am an enthusiast and still learning and love this blog. I was on the other blog and was very upset at what the comments had become. I just ask that we can at least read without paying. And thank you to everyone that contributes ..I love reading what everyone’s take is on the weather. Have… Read more »

KS Jones
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KS Jones

It seems like the techie should be able to block the IPs of offenders. That’s how many other forums do it successfully.

Supercell
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Supercell

00z GFS hasn’t budged on storm for next Friday-Saturday. That’s at least 6 runs holding steady. Will be interesting over weekend to see if other models come on board. I wouldn’t worry about temps for now. If the Low bombs out then cold air won’t be a problem on the backside.

Alex Pickman
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Alex Pickman

Here in Stewartsville, MO….Currently at 15 inches on the season after this most recent 1.7”.

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

There is a huge disparity between the GFS and the FV3. If this is supposed to be the new GFS then there is going to be a lot of wishcasting in the future. It appears to have handled this Oklahoma/ Texas storm horribly even during the event. My question is with this being new technology, why is it so bad?

craig
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craig

Gary, you’ve got to devise a way that allows only paid subscribers to comment!

Tony
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Tony

Lol what makes you say that?

craig
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craig

The ridiculously-offensive comments from “Julie” have been deleted.

Elaine Watson
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Elaine Watson

Looks like the storm went south of Oklahoma as well.

morganu
Member
morganu

Such a marginal setup for snow next week. As of now at least.

f00dl3
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f00dl3

So GFS comes in w/ rain as the predominant precip type for the next storm and 0.75″ QPF. Which tells me that if we only drop 5 degrees colder than what the GFS says, that could be 3-6″ of snow.

Paul
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Paul

I remember when I was like 6 and I learn my first naughty words. Good boy! Grow up.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

With how fast Gary deletes references to the length of the pattern I’m shocked that the profanity and offensive stuff stays up for 6 hours.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

oh look…same troll changing name again. Such a sad, pathetic existence you lead..you must really hate yourself.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

LOL FV3 gives St. Louis 8-12″ again.

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Hmm so they shut down all of I-29 for Trump. Interesting.

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Yup…presidents get crazy protection

Richard
Guest
Richard

I still don’t understand how we went from snow in April to a.c. HEAT on May 1 and the rest of the summer was so hot.
What influences were present to cause that. I don’t think it was ever explained ?
I know a drought was predicted, but drought does not always translate to way above norm temps when we had so many below temps last winter.

KS Jones
Guest
KS Jones

Here’s a bar-graph that shows Missouri’s monthly temperature fluctuations from January through October.
http://climate.missouri.edu/images/2018novb.gif

thetophat
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thetophat

Six months of winter followed by six months of summer…………wash rinse repeat. I know Gary is not a fan of analogs but this seems a bit like 1982-84 so far.

Michael Casteel
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Michael Casteel

Gary,
After January 1st will you post an “IN Depth” timeline based on the LRC that will get us through the end of this years pattern? It would be very helpful for my job. Thanks sir! Plus I still need to get my Book signed by you! I bought three copies! Have a blessed weekend Bloggers!
Michael

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

So throwing temperatures asides things make a bit of sense. Looking at the 12z runs, comparing to last time, the Rocky Trough even the last time through, it wrapped in just enough cold air to turn the precipitation to be snowfall. That’s why we only had minor snow accumulations even though the duration of the events was all day long – because ratios were low and precipitation was light to moderate at times. If the low takes a identical track then it makes sense that we won’t wrap in cold air either. I mean the low was only 27 that… Read more »

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

Heck, the first time it came through, temps started in the 90s! But that was the led wave. Then things cooled off to a bit more seasonal. So maybe that’s the parallel not exhibit (C).

Numb3rsGuy
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Numb3rsGuy

I love the video blogs, Gary! Keep them coming!

Hockeynut69
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Hockeynut69

KU’s Pooka Williams arrested last night for domestic battery. When are these football players going to learn? Sad.

Mr. Pete
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Mr. Pete

Wait, KU has a football team?

Heat Miser
Guest
Heat Miser

Ha ha, no, not realy

Richard
Guest
Richard

Ridiculous

f00dl3
Guest
f00dl3

I guess what will really be interesting is if the Arctic blasts times it the way I think Gary is alluding to how it will time it’s self it coincides with a weak snowfall, but the weekend after that (New Years Eve) we could have big snow (8-16″).

Richard
Guest
Richard

f00dl3
When I said ridiculous I don’t mean you.
You are the one who tries to make sense of it all.

Mr. Pete
Guest
Mr. Pete

Gary according to your video, cold air could be in place for Christmas. Chances of a white Christmas??

Mike
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Mike

Gary, can you show us the pattern that produces the crazy amount of snowfalls in North Carolina in the 1st cycle? Try to learn lrc.

Snow Miser
Guest
Snow Miser

Forget talking about Oklahoma, North Carolina is going to be far more interesting. Check out these snowfall totals from the NAM, it’s so ridiculous it’s almost funny:
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REAL HUMEDUDE
Guest
REAL HUMEDUDE

Output is almost always overdone, I would cut those totals in half and maybe that’s accurate. Either way, a huge storm for them they aren’t used to in the slightest. Our weather is looking a lot quieter in next 2 weeks to me, I am not complaining one bit. I would welcome a warm up and some moderating temps, its been cold since late October……..some would argue this SUCKS! We are on pace for a 6 month cold season, I never signed up for that!!!

Tim in Lone Jack
Guest
Tim in Lone Jack

Something must be wrong with the output runs through tropical tidbits for this event. Other sites do show the crazy high totals but nowhere near the coverage area impacted– NAM or GFS.

Jim
Guest
Jim

First